Facts and Myths: Montana’s Aging Population &
Its Impacts on The Economy
Mary Craigle Bureau ChiefCensus and Economic Information Center (CEIC) MT Dept. of Commerce
Barbara WagnerChief Economist
MT Dept. of Labor and Industry
Fact or Myth?
Montana is the Least Populous State.
Montana Population: 1,005,141(RANK 44th)
Montana’s Population:2010: 989,4152012: 1,005,141
Source: 2010 Census, Census and Economic Information Center
Largest Cities:Billings - 104,170Missoula – 66,788Great Falls – 58,505Bozeman – 37,280Butte – 33,525
Smallest “Cities”:Neihart– 51Outlook – 47Ismay – 19(excludes CDPs)
Population Density:6.86 People per Square Mile (Rank 48th)
Source: 2010 Census, Census and Economic Information Center
Population Density Comparisons
(People/ Mile2)
U.S.87.4
D.C.9,856.5
New Jersey (Most Dense)
1,195.5
Alaska (Least Dense)
1.2
- Slow technology diffusion.
- Limited networking between businesses.
- Difficult to develop relationships with universities
for worker training and research.
Why Population Density Matters?Larger Share of Government Services than U.S. Average
US MT0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Government Government
Leisure ActivitiesLeisure ActivitiesAll Other
All Other
Health Care and Ed-ucation
Health Care and Ed-ucation
Business Services Business Services
Financial ServicesFinancial Services
Retail and Wholesale Trade
Retail and Wholesale Trade
ManufacturingManufacturing
Construction
Construction
MiningMining
Agriculture Agriculture
Transportation and Utili-ties
Transportation and Utilities
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product 2011.
Montana Population Projection
Historic
Projected
Why this matters?Consumers comprise 80% of GDP.
Faster Population Growth = Faster Economic Growth
1,267,936 Residents by 2060
903,773 Residents in 2000
Fact or Myth?
Montana is the Oldest State.
Maine is the Oldest State in the Nation:Montana Ranks 7th
• 14.9% of Montanans were age 65 or older in 2010.
• By 2025, this percentage will rise to 21.8%, placing MT as 4th Oldest State.
Population Projections by Age
2013 Working Age
65.5%
2060 Working
Age 57.8%
Dependency Ratio:“Workers” Compared to Old & Young
(𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑0−14 )+(𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 65𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜𝑙𝑑𝑒𝑟 )(𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 15−64 )
∗100
Why this Matters:Montana workers and business owners will
face increased pressures to care for the old and
young in the future.
-Higher Taxes?-Require Higher Wages?
-More Caretaking?20
1 3
Components of Federal Spending
Source: Congressional Budget Office, 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Perc
enta
ge o
f GD
P
Fact or Myth?
Montana has the Oldest Workers.
Montana Has Highest Percent of Labor Force Over 65
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Mon
tana
Sout
h D
akot
aN
ebra
ska
Okl
ahom
aN
ew Je
rsey
Wyo
min
gVe
rmon
tM
aine
Kans
asH
awai
iO
hio
Conn
ectic
utN
ew H
amps
hire
Flor
ida
Mas
sach
usett
sM
aryl
and
Miss
ouri
Del
awar
eRh
ode
Isla
ndN
orth
Dak
ota
Wes
t Virg
inia
Tenn
esse
eLo
uisia
naVi
rgin
iaPe
nnsy
lvan
iaW
iscon
sinO
rego
nIo
wa
Dist
rict o
f Col
umbi
aIll
inoi
sN
ew Y
ork
Indi
ana
Nor
th C
arol
ina
Sout
h Ca
rolin
aN
ew M
exic
oW
ashi
ngto
nCo
lora
doM
ississ
ippi
Arka
nsas
Calif
orni
aM
ichi
gan
Nev
ada
Idah
oM
inne
sota
Alab
ama
Ariz
ona
Texa
sKe
ntuc
kyAl
aska
Uta
hG
eorg
ia
8.6%
Source: Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Montana Labor Force Participation:Aging Population is Reducing Participation Rates
Why this matters?Declines in Labor Force Size Will Likely Lead to Worker Shortages
Source: Economy at a Glance, Nov. 2013, Research and Analysis Bureau, MT DLI
Labor Force Participation Rate
Source: 2009-2011, American Community Survey
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Alas
kaN
ebra
ska
Min
neso
taN
orth
Dak
ota
New
Ham
pshi
reCo
lora
doM
aryl
and
Wyo
min
gSo
uth
Dak
ota
Uta
hIo
wa
Wisc
onsin
Conn
ectic
utVe
rmon
tKa
nsas
Mas
sach
usett
sD
istric
t of C
olum
bia
Virg
inia
New
Jers
eyN
evad
aH
awai
iIll
inoi
sRh
ode
Isla
ndW
ashi
ngto
nTe
xas
Mon
tana
Mai
neIn
dian
aM
issou
riCa
lifor
nia
Del
awar
eG
eorg
iaId
aho
Ohi
oN
orth
Car
olin
aO
rego
nN
ew Y
ork
Penn
sylv
ania
Okl
ahom
aM
ichi
gan
Sout
h Ca
rolin
aTe
nnes
see
Loui
siana
Ariz
ona
New
Mex
ico
Flor
ida
Arka
nsas
Kent
ucky
Alab
ama
Miss
issip
piW
est V
irgin
ia
65%
Perc
ent
of P
opul
ation
in th
e La
bor F
orce
Fact or Myth?Don’t Worry. Younger workers will
fill in the gap.
Labor Force Participation Rates by Age
Source: Economy at a Glance, Nov. 2013, Research and Analysis Bureau, MT DLI
Currently, Young
Workers have Lower
Participation
Participation Rates for All Ages have Declined
Employment Status of the Montana Population
Montana’s Aging Population
Source: Census and Economic Information Center, MT Dept. of Commerce, April 2013
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 -
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000 Under 20 20 to 64 Over 65
Working-age population levels out after
2015.
Workers must become more productive to
maintain economic growth.
Montana Workers Will Need to Be More Productive
• Education
• Experience in job
• Job Matching
• Industry Mix
• Urban concentration
• Use of technology
• Spread of best practices and innovative methods
• Business Size
Fact or Myth?Aging Population Also Has Economic
Benefits
Montana Personal Income by Industry Since 1930
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Mining
Wholesale And Retail Trade
Government
Services
Health Services
Professional and Technical ServicesFarm Earnings and Agriculture
Manufacturing
Construction
Transportation and Utilities
Finance and Real Es-tate
Leisure Activities
Other Services
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income from 1930, SICs to NAICS conversion compiled by the Montana Department of Labor and Industry Research and Analysis Bureau.
1930-1939 1940-1949 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-20120
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
Real Personal Income in Montana by Industry by Decade(2005 Dollars, Decade Average)
Government Health Care
Leisure Activities
Trade
TransportationManufacturing
Construction
Farm Earnings and AgMining
Finance/Real Estate
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income from 1930, SICs to NAICS conversion compiled by the Montana Department of Labor and Industry Research and Analysis Bureau.
Why this matters?Health Care and Trade Providing Growth in Real Income
Utilities
Agriculture
Mining
Transportation
Manufacturing
Admin and Waste Services
Professional Services
Finance and Real Estate
Construction
Other
Public Affairs
Education
Leisure Activities
Health Care
Trade
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Comparative Industry Employment
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2012.
Federal – 3%State – 5%
Local – 11%Private – 81%
Ten Growing Occupations with Unmet Demand for Workers
Occupation
Projected Annual Growth
Minimum Training Required
Home Health Aides 96 Short OJT
Registered Nurses 72 Associate
Personal and Home Care Aides 54 Short OJT
Elementary School Teachers 52 Bachelor's
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 46Vocational
training
Medical Secretaries 31 Moderate OJTNetwork Systems and Data Communications Analysts 22 Bachelor's
Medical Assistants 22 Moderate OJT
Child Care Workers 22 Short OJTOJT: On-the-Job Training
Fact or Myth?Retirees Contribute Retirement Income to
Montana’s Economy.
Components of Personal Income
Growth Comes from All Areas of Income:Highest Growth in Transfers
Percent Wage Growth By Sector
Total Private Government Federal State Local
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
3.6%
4.2%
1.9%
0.9%
2.1%
2.5%2.7%
3.0%
1.5%1.9%
-0.2%
2.3%
1.1%1.4%
-0.1% 0.2%
-1.7%
0.7%
2011 to 2012 Growth2008 to 2012 Growth
2008 to 2012 Real Growth
Second Fastest Growth in Nation
Montana private workers are doing pretty well for wage and income growth right now.
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2012.
Montana Ranks 35th in Per Capita Income (Improved from 47th in 2002)
Why this matters?Measure of Standard of Living
Real Per Capita Income Over Time2005 Dollars
19291932
19351938
19411944
19471950
19531956
19591962
19651968
19711974
19771980
19831986
19891992
19951998
20012004
20072010
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
Real
200
5 Pe
r Cap
ita
Inco
me
U.S.
MT
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2012.
Age Impacts our Economy
• Population growth slowing
• Worker shortages with more retirees
• Pressure on workers to care for young/old
• Changes in components of personal income
• Industry demand shifts towards services
• Need healthcare worker training
QUESTIONS???
CONTACT INFORMATION
Montana Department of LaborWWW.LMI.MT.GOV
Montana Department of CommerceCensus & Economic Information Center
WWW.CEIC.MT.GOV
Everything You’ve Seen Here Today and More is Available At:
HTTP://BUSINESSRESOURCES.MT.GOV/EDAC/MEETINGINFORMATION.MCPX
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