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Contacts:
Maria PinelliGlobal IPO Leader
Jacqueline KelleyAmericas IPO Leader
Ringo Choi
Dr. Martin SteinbachEMEIA IPO [email protected]
Shinichiro SuzukiJapan IPO Leader
EY Global IPO TrendsReportQ3 2013
Welcome
Welcome to the new-look quarterly EY Global IPO Trends report, which provides extensive
commentary on listings activity across the world and analysis of key drivers from EYs
Global IPO network.
Despite a comparatively quiet third quarter in line with historical trends of slower activity
over the months of July through September we expect global IPO activity to lift through
the remainder of the year and into 2014. The uplift in activity could vary from region to
region both in terms of timing and pace.
Average deal size continues to trend lower, because of the high number of health care
and technology IPOs that came to the public markets. Pricing remains a top concern for
softer economic fundamentals, but we are seeing improvement year-on-year.
Europe is seeing more mid-sized and large IPOs, with private equity a key driver, particularly
receding, market volatility has subsided and valuations are improving. The conditions are
The ongoing suspension of new listings on mainland China exchanges has affected IPO
economic and market conditions. However, conditions in the region are expected to improve
such as Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and to an extent Indonesia.
We hope that the analysis and perspectives contained in this report will be of use to all
participants in the capital markets but, should you require further insight, please contact
me or the EY IPO Leader in your region.
Maria Pinelli
Global Vice Chair
Strategic Growth Markets
EY
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Global IPO activity is projected to reach 197 deals with IPO
expected to be down 4% in terms of deal numbers and 47%
activity is projected to be slightly higher by deal numbers but
48 44 29 42 40 63 48
109 131125
112 84
78
78
44
60
32 39
32
58
28
3
7
57
7
7
6
0
50
100
150
200
250
Numberofdeals
North America
EMEA Central and South America
Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313
Quarterly IPO deals by region*
6,280 23,333 4,109 9,725 9,079 13,791 8,773
7,915
15,494
19,240
14,617 5,668
17,942
5,436
3,476
1,886
1,223
9,777
6,705
6,702
2,470
325
3,090
5,017
3,059
2,881
7,776
1,568
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313
Proceeds(US$m)
North America
EMEA Central and South America
Quarterly IPO proceeds by region*
a story of two halves. In July and August, signs of improvingmacroeconomic conditions, particularly in the developed
economies, coupled with ultra-low interest rates and new
indications from major central banks that they would keep
monetary conditions loose for longer, were all supportive of
public listings. This combination saw market volatility decline
12.94% at the start of August. Equity indices and IPO activity
gathered steam concurrently, with the S&P 500 hitting its
months of 2012.
investor concern grew on impending monetary tightening
soon begin to taper its asset purchase program, potentially
driving volatility higher and putting risk assets, especially
in the emerging markets, under pressure. Following hints
concerned about the economy. In the near term there may be
some upside, particular in the emerging markets, from where
in search of higher yields. However, the expectation is that a
reduction in stimulus will begin at some point this year.
Global IPO activity Q3 analysis
Global IPO activity softer in Q313, though theunderlying improving trend is intact
Total
Number of deals 206 197 566
Capital raised
46.2 24.4 94.9
Average deal size
167.7
% Increase /
decrease
JanSep
vs 2012JanSep
Number of deals -11.1% -4.4%
Capital raised -17.7%
2013 Global IPO activity by quarter
expected IPOs by end of September. . Source: Dealogic.
Source: Dealogic.
Source: Dealogic.
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Issuer Name Sector Capital raised
Exchange(s)
Envision Healthcare
Holdings Inc
Health care 1,110.9 New York
(NYSE)
American Homes 4
New York
(NYSE)
Frank's International
NV
Energy 759.0 New York
(NYSE)
Deutsche Annington
Immobilien GmbH
Deutsche
Borse
Z Energy Ltd Energy 677.0 Australia
(ASX)
Energy 495.2 New York
(NYSE)
QEP Midstream
Partners LP
Energy New York
(NYSE)
475.9 Singapore
(SGX)
Singapore
(SGX)
Phillips 66 Partners LP Energy New York
(NYSE)
Q313 Top 10 global IPOs by capital raised
Sector Number
of deals
% of global
deal
number
Capital
raised
% of
global
capital
raised
Energy 21 5,601.7
20 12.5% 4,566.9 25.0%
Health care 14.4% 12.6%
Industrials 19 11.9% 7.9%
Technology 22 5.1%
Financials 16 10.0% 4.7%
5.0% 4.5%
Media and
entertainment
6 714.1
Consumer staples 5.0%
Materials 9 5.6% 269.5 1.5%
Consumer products
and services
6 26.2 0.1%
Telecommunications 2 11.6 0.1%
Global total 160 100.0% 18,246.9 100.0%
Q313 global IPOs by sector
Signs of softer economic prospects in key emerging markets,
including India and Brazil, alongside new global geopolitical
concerns in Syria and Turkey, did not help investor sentiment.
1
in September 2011.
underlying improving trend in global IPO activity is intact.
1
September, according to Dealogic data.
2
price, was at 4.5%2
Source: Dealogic.
Source: Dealogic.
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9%
22%
16%
25%
6%
13%
10% 9%
42%
25%21%
14% 12%
4%0%
-9%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
%Equitymarketret
urnsyear-to-date
2012 YTD return 2013 YTD return
GDP growth in the major developed economies in the coming
at a solid pace, and recent export and manufacturing indicators
production and export data are stronger. Japan has also
bounced back, reporting solid GDP gains and rising trade and
manufacturing.
The OECD composite leading indicator rose to 100.7 on its
latest reading, pushing further above its long-term average
level of 100.0, to its highest level since April 2011.
The outlook for emerging markets is softer. The OECD leading
indicator suggests slowing momentum in major emerging
economies, including Brazil and India. However, other leading
result, weaker performance in emerging economies in the near-
term should not derail the better overall global outlook.
Outlook for Q4
An improving global economic outlook issupportive for IPO activity in Q413, althoughmonetary policy changes may heighten
uncertainty
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Number of IPOs OECD +6 Major EmergingEconomies Leading Indicator
NumberofIPOs
Year-on-yeargrowth
Q210
Q310
Q410
Q111
Q211
Q311
Q411
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113
Q213
Q313
Q413
Q114
OECD Leading indicator growth vs. number of IPOs
Stronger performance in equities in many developed
The combination of these factors is supportive for equity
outlook for global monetary conditions. Extremely loose
monetary policy at the worlds major central banks is expected
to stay in place for several quarters yet. The prospect of the
program potentially before the end of the year does not
represent a step-change in policy. Tapering is expected to be
very gradual, and the cautious tone of communications from
doing whatever is necessary to support economic growth.
Crucially, recent economic data, while improving, is not
expected to prompt a change in thinking from central banks
on interest rates. Jobs growth and other fundamentals are still
have some breathing room. As a result, interest rates areexpected to remain at record lows for the foreseeable future.
This combination of better growth and easy monetary
conditions is ultimately supportive for equity capital markets.
Conditions could remain volatile near-term, until investors have
more clarity on what tapering will actually look like. Emerging
markets in particular could feel the pressure, as investors
process the implications for their portfolios of a wind down in
monetary stimulus. However, barring a large deviation from
this outlook, market volatility is not expected to increase.
Investors have been encouraged by
rising valuations, but pricing remain acritical concern. More than ever, pre-IPOcompanies need strong brand names
or earnings track records to obtainappropriate pricing and secure investor
Maria Pinelli | Global Vice Chair,Strategic Growth Markets, EY
Source: OECD.stat, Dealogic.
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
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24%16% 15% 18%
21% 25% 19%
76%84% 85% 82%
79% 75% 81%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Financial sponsored Corporate deals
Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313
Financial sponsored backed vs Corporate IPO deals
27
38
27
63
24
47
22
26
35
26
20
26
32
40
22
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
NumberofIPOs
Q110
Q210
Q310
Q410
Q111
Q211
Q311
Q411
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113
Q213
Q313
Global PE-backed IPOs by quarter*
IPO activity should lift in Q413
In this environment, global IPO activity is expected to lift in the
still-loose global monetary policy settings and steadying market
volatility suggest a wider window for new listings in the coming
This would be in line with Q412 levels, with policy uncertaintysuggesting the path to recovery in the IPO markets may not be
a smooth one, despite a better economic backdrop.
From region to region, the recovery could be uneven both in
terms of timing and pace. In particular, the continued prospect
monetary conditions could drive some divergence in IPO
There is further potential downside for emerging markets in the
coming months, though this is not expected to be substantial
given the recent sell-off. Slower economic growth in some
emerging markets, alongside the prospect of central bank rate
rises in order to stabilize exchange rates, would be unfavorable
in institutional investors appetite for new listings. At the same
time, improving economic conditions and investor interest in
track records to obtain appropriate pricing and secure investor
and operator of business-to-business online market-place
Alibaba are expected later this year or in 2014.
PE-backed IPOs should also gain pace
market trends closely in recent quarters. This is expected to
level of volatility in the equity market holds steady.
PE-backed deals were an important part of the rising trend in
above their expected ranges.
global market. PE-backed offerings slowed to 22 deals in the
that suggest PE-backed deals should rise. Filings are on an
companies waiting to go public. As at 20 September, there
are 75 companies in active registration, which could raise
also been minimal this year. In addition, the solid aftermarket
performance of recent listings is an important catalyst for
PE investors to take companies public. The large overhang of
companies acquired during pre-recession years should also
Source: Dealogic.
* Based on priced IPOs as of 19 September. Source: Dealogic.
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IPO activity in terms of volume of activity and proceeds
global total capital raised.The largest deal worldwide in
technology sectors were the next most active sectors from a
deal volume and value perspective.
balanced year for global IPO activity, with a diverse mix of
sectors likely to continue to drive new listings. The global IPO
pending, according to Dealogic data.
Still, some sectors are set to lead total activity higher in
higher market volatility drove increased postponements
and withdrawals. Several large listings are rumored heading
into the new quarter, though the timing of these deals is
unclear. Twitter Inc., for example, has announced plans foran IPO listing on 12 September. At the same time, conditions
sector has experienced solid improvement in earnings in
recent months, mainly in North America, where the backlog
quality and slowing writedowns suggest the sector should
continue to trend higher, which is supportive for new offerings.
attractive yields, should continue to support successful new
listings. In Europe however, there are not as many large targets
going forward. Yield plays should also drive another active
quarter for utilities and energy master limited partnerships.
There was a short-term correction mid-year, with uncertainty
withdrawals higher. However, with central bank rates set to
hold steady in the coming months, irrespective of any tapering
in quantitative easing programs, investor demand for income
should persist for some months yet.
Industry analysis
drive activity in Q413
16 1624
5
5
6
8
8
1
7
2
1
2
11
North America
EMEA
Central andSouth America
Asia-Pacic
$643
$1,551
$241
$2,330
1,293
$5,677
$1,811
$330
$75
$2
$452
North America
EMEA
Asia-Pacic
Financial*
Financial by number of deals
Central andSouth America
Q213
Financial by capital raised (US$m)
Q113 Q313
$2,435 $858$11,112
3
2
1
16
4
9
1
17
2
6
2
9
22 1931
North America
EMEA
Central andSouth America
Asia-Pacic
North America
EMEA
Asia-Pacic
Industrial*Industrial by number of deals
Central andSouth America
Q213
Industrial by capital raised (US$m)
Q113 Q313
$2,053 $1,438$8,045
$790
$730
$89
$443
$1,279
$1,134
$560
$5,072
$219
$321
$776
$122
Source: Dealogic.
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9
6
2
6
9
3
9
4
5
1
10
$1,418
$2,430
$1,067
$2,996
$1,564
$305
$2,555
$1,211
$1,267
$379
$1,710
23 2021
North America
EMEA
Central andSouth America
Asia-Pacic
North America
EMEA
Asia-Pacic
Real estate*
Real estate by number of deals
Central andSouth America
Q213
Real estate by capital raised (US$m)
Q113 Q313
$7,911 $4,567$4,423
$443
$36
$265
$451
$1,377
$120
$260
$593
$197
$135
4
3
1
8
9
6
5
7
8
7
16 2220
North America
EMEA
Central andSouth America
Asia-Pacic
North America
EMEA
Asia-Pacic
Technology*Technology by number of deals
Central andSouth America
Q213
Technology by capital raised (US$m)
Q113 Q313
$1,196 $925$1,757
$1,230
$4
$598
$251
$445
$318
$409
$1,507
$3,276
$420
$411
$1,495
4
2
1
5
2
4
1
5
9
2
1
9
12 2112
North America
EMEA
Central andSouth America
Asia-Pacic
North America
EMEA
Asia-Pacic
Energy*
Energy by number of deals
Central andSouth America
Q213
Energy by capital raised (US$m)
Q113 Q313
$2,083 $5,602$2,679
$2,879
$105
$101
$2,074
$614
$618
$2,037
$85
$184
6
4
5
14
10
7
16
3
4
15 2331
North America
EMEA
Central andSouth America
Asia-Pacic
North America
EMEA
Asia-Pacic
Health care*Health care by number of deals
Central andSouth America
Q213
Health care by capital raised (US$m)
Q113 Q313
$3,085 $2,307$3,305
Source: Dealogic.
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Regional analysis
US continues its strong momentum and strongerIPO activity from Hong Kong and South East
The Americas
Strong US activity in Q3 with further upswing forecast,while conditions remain challenging in Central andSouth America
Total
Number of deals 62 65 160
Capital raised
14.7
Average deal size
260.4 219.4
% Increase /
decrease
JanSep
vs 2012JanSep
Number of deals 5% 141%
Capital raised -7% -19% 45%
number of deals and 49% by capital raised.
already surpassed last years total with 142 completed IPOs
of 2012 with both the second and third quarter deal volumes
greater this year than during the same periods last year. By
From a sector perspective, health care is expected to be the most
active sector by number of deals and ranks second by capital
health care sector, such as biotechnology and pharmaceutical
same time period of 5.0%.
The technology sector is expected to be the second most active
of the higher number of health care and technology IPOs that
Despite encouraging levels of activity and investor interest,
pricing remains a top concern for investors. Some pressure on
within range, almost 40% were at the lower end.
500 is currently trading at around 20 times reported earnings,
close to the highest level since April 2010. This combination
of attractive valuations and the solid aftermarket performance
industries.
Looking ahead, real estate IPOs are expected to continue to
cross-border listings a potentially important contributor to new
September was an important barometer of investor appetite
for social media listings and the outcome of the pending listing
further evidence of the level of investor interest. We also expect
to see IPOs in big data and cloud computing sub-sectors over
substantial contributor to IPO activity.
investor sentiment across the Americas region is mixed. IPO
activity in selected parts of Central and South America remain
and historically slower activity during the summer months.
in 2012, due to improvement in listing activity from Brazil and
Mexico exchanges.
expected IPOs by end of September. Source: Dealogic.
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Total
Number of deals 7 6 5
Capital raised
2.9 7.2 1.1 11.2
Average deal size
411.6 1200.1 227.5
% Increase /
decrease
JanSep
vs 2012
JanSep
Number of deals -17% 25%
Capital raised 176% 26%
EMEA
Positive signals in mature economies of Europe;PE a driver as larger deals dominate
IPO sentiment across Europe is improving. The region is
period in 2012. However, average deal size dropped slightly
months.
Germany where valuations are comparatively high and volatility
levels have subsided. European stock markets including the
program, all major European indices climbed again.
largest European IPO was German real estate group Deutsche
Market.
Conversely, in the emerging markets of Middle East and Africa,
smaller deals are prevailing. Middle East exchanges saw 10
be attributed to the slowdown in small- and mid-cap listings
in the Poland IPO market. There were two deals each on the
Warsaw main market and the junior market NewConnect in
market and 20 on NewConnect compared to six and 62 IPOs
Private equity remains an active driver, particularly of deals
have accounted for 17% of deal volume and 56% of proceeds,
a marked increase over 2012 where PE-backed deals combined
accounted for 10% of total proceeds for the full year. With
listings of PE-backed companies such as Grohe, Europes
biggest bathroom equipment maker, predicted to complete
slowed. After the worlds largest IPO this year (BB Seguridade
have slowed dramatically with just one IPO since. Slower market
conditions forced two big companies, Votorantim Cimentos SA
IPO activity on Mexican Stock Exchange has trended higher
over the last two years compared to previous high level in 2007
IPOs in 2012. Pricing a top concern forinvestors came under some pressure
higher and outperformed the S&P 500index. This points to sustained activity in
Jacqueline Kelley | Americas IPO Leader, EY
expected IPOs by end of September. . Source: Dealogic.
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Asia
is encouraging
4while deal numbers are expected
suspension of new listings on mainland China continues to
affect IPO activity level in the region. There were lower IPO
quarter historically, this also weighed on total Asian proceeds
region, although Singapore was an exception with total
real estate offerings.
from 15 IPOs. Consumer staples, real estate and materials
were the most active sectors by number of deals, while media
and entertainment and consumer staples led by capital raised.
to conduct small and medium sized IPO deals, as well as
media and telecommunications, banking, retail and consumer
economy, coupled with very easy monetary conditions, should
support better activity in this market. More restrictive listing
listing rules takes effect.
4
Total
Number of deals 29 42 101
Capital raised
5.1 12.9
Average deal size
176.0 101.5 127.9
% Increase /
decrease
JanSep
vs 2012
JanSep
Number of deals -22% -29%
Capital raised 204%
prior quarters. In particular, economic data suggests steady
stabilizing and regional debt markets are steadying. These
conditions point to better valuations and suggest the coming
quarter could be a better time to go public in the region.
While real estate and technology are expected to be active
industries, with investor appetite for yield ready to support newlistings, there are no real sector clusters apparent in the region.
largest British offerings in recent years. Meanwhile, in the Middle
East, the Bank of London & the Middle East is set to list on the
Europe is seeing more mid-sized andlarge IPOs coming to the market, with
PE-backed IPOs being a key driver,particularly in the mature economies conditions stabilizing, market volatilityhas subsided and valuations are
improving. The conditions are right for
Martin Steinbach | EMEIA IPO leader, EY
expected IPOs by end of September. Source: Dealogic.
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Total
Number of deals 74 62 214
Capital raised
5.5 15.7 6.4 27.5
Average deal size 74.2 252.4
% Increase /
decrease
JanSep
vs 2012
JanSep
Number of deals 26%
Capital raised -59% -67%
Prospects for new listings in the region are also more
conditions, led by the developed economies, important for
Investor appetite is likely to be strong for these offerings on the
back of recent stock price rises. Deal sizes are starting to trend
higher and PE-backed exits are on the rise. Companies expected
Co., Ltd. and electronics manufacturer Japan Display Inc., while
the life sciences and information technology sectors should also
see a number of offerings coming to market.
South East Asian exchanges are prominent in the pipeline of
expected global IPOs, second to North America by volume,
according to Dealogic data. We expect more IPO listings from
emerging markets such as Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and,
to an extent, Indonesia.
prevailing on the Indian IPO market. Bombay Stock Exchange
government has indicated it will complete a program of state
owned asset sales before next years general election, with the
sale of as much as 49% of Meridian Energy Ltd., the nations
Nonetheless, uncertainty around this outlook is heightened,
anticipated plan to reduce its bond purchases on emerging
markets. A surge in bearish investor sentiment, and higher
market volatility, would mean fund managers could have
offerings. The success of big-ticket listings near-term, such
same time, a move from Chinas regulators to reopen the IPO
market would be a welcomed boost to the Asian IPO market.
Conditions in the region are expected to 2014 with a growing list of companies
planning to conduct large IPOs in Hong markets in Mainland China are re-opened.We also expect more IPO listings fromemerging markets such as Thailand,
Ringo Choi Growth Markets leader, EY
Loose monetary conditions are fueling
investor appetite for equities and JapaneseIPO activity is expected to accelerate in thecoming months as a result, with up to
Shinichiro Suzuki | Japan IPO leader, EY
expected IPOs by end of September. . Source: Dealogic.
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Rapid-growth
Developed
Developed vs. rapid-growthEmerging markets
represent 8 of the top20 IPOs in 2013 Q3.
Three sectors trending
US$24.4bin capital raised(47% decrease on 2013 Q2)
197
(4% decrease on 2013 Q2)
Volume and value
deals globally
Maria Pinelli,Global Vice Chair, Strategic Growth Markets
More than 5,000companiesglobally, includingmore than1,000Asian companies
Pipeline is building
Despite a comparatively quiet third quarter,global IPO activity is expected to lift through
the remainder of the year and into 2014. The
uplift in activity will vary from region to region
both in terms of timing and pace.
Financial investors dominate
PE- and VC-backed IPOsdrive global deal activity.
PE and VC account for47% of US IPOs and 19%of global IPOs by dealvolume.
46%
Health careEnergy Real estate
US$4.6b(20 deals)
Global IPOhighlights2013 Q3
Commentary
Maria Pinelli,Global Vice Chair, Strategic Growth Markets
Investors have been encouraged by rising valuations
but moving forward, pricing remain a critical concern.
brand names or earnings track records to obtain
appropriate pricing and secure investor support.
Home and away17 of the top 20 were listedon their home exchanges.
Home
1 1
US$2.3b(23 deals)
US$5.6b(21 deals)
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| 13
US tops the leaderboard
US issuers dominatedthe global IPO market,accounting for 45%of global funds raised.
Top three countries by deal volume
US GreaterChina
Number of deals
ranked 2nd by amountof global funds raised.
Asia-P
30%
41
16
46%
Top three exchanges by funds raised
New York
US$
NASDAQ Singapore
SGD
Envision HealthcareHoldings Inc.
(US)
US$1.1b US$0.8b
Asia-P
10
Volume of deals
Central andSouth America
NorthAmerica 30%
49%
3%
Conce continues to buildas the VIXfalls and thecentral banks stimulicontinue.
Rising equity markets are apositive for IPOs MSCIWorld Equities Index is up 16%since the end of 2012.
92% of global IPOspriced within or aboveexpectations.
Only 29 postponedor withdrawn IPOsin 2013 Q3, 40% downon 2012 Q3.
Conce is growing
VIX
2 Focus on open-price IPOs with deal value above US$50m.
EMEA 18%
Top 3 deals in 2013 Q3
American Homes4 Rent(US)
US$0.8bFrank's
International NV(US)
US$
Singaporeand UK
2
1
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For more information on global IPO performance
Global IPO Center of Excellence:
ey.com/ipocenter
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markets and equity market volatility.
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