The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Rob Gardner May 22, 2012
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
Demographic Shifts Alter Demand Profile Billion
OECD China India
Age 0 – 14
Age 15 – 64
Age 65+
Africa
2010 2040
Source: World Bank
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
0.9%
Energy Demand
Energy Saved ~500
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2015 20400
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
1990 2015 2040
Global Progress Drives Demand
Billion Population GDP
Trillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
2.9%
OECD
Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 2015 20400
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Rapidly Expanding Economies Drive Demand
Quadrillion BTUs Non OECD Demand
Trillion 2005 $ Non OECD GDP
China
India
Middle East
Rest of Non OECD
Latin America
Africa
Russia/Caspian
China
India
Middle East
Rest of Non OECD
Latin America
Africa
Russia/Caspian
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Res/Comm Transportation Industrial Electricity Generation
2010
2025 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
Electricity Demand
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation
+80% By 2040, worldwide
electricity demand will be
80% higher.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2015 20400
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 2015 2040
Electricity Demand Continues to Surge
k TWh By Sector
Transportation
Industrial
Residential/Commercial
Quadrillion BTUs Fuel Into Electricity Generation
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Wind
Renewables
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
Coal Gas Nuclear Wind *0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2015 2040
Electricity Demand Continues to Surge
Quadrillion BTUs Fuel Into Electricity Generation
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Wind
Renewables $60/ton CO2
2011 cents/kWh Baseload, Startup 2030
$0/ton CO2
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
2
4
6
8
1990 2015 20400
2
4
6
8
1990 2015 20400
2
4
6
8
1990 2015 2040
k TWh
Gas
Nuclear Coal
Wind
Other Renewables
Gas w/ CCS
Coal w/ CCS
Electricity Supply Varies Globally
United States k TWh China
Oil
k TWh Europe
* Generation by Type
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
90% By 2040, 90% of
transportation will run on
liquid petroleum-based fuels.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth
Personal MBDOE
Commercial MBDOE
Light Duty Vehicles
Aviation
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty Vehicles
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000 2020 2040
Million Vehicles
Rest of OECD
Rest of Non OECD
China
United States
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Region Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040 Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040
Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
US Europe China Japan India
On-Road MPG
2020-2025 Target 2015 Target
2010
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000 2020 2040
Million Vehicles Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Type
Conv. Gasoline
Conv. Diesel
Hybrid
PHV/EV Natural gas/LPG
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
US Europe China Japan India
Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040 On-Road MPG
2010
2020-2025 Target 2015 Target
Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
Other OECD China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
Advanced*
CNG
LPG
Conv. Diesel
Conv. Gasoline
2010
Millions of Vehicles Powertrain Technology
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
Other OECD China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
Advanced*
CNG
LPG
Conv. Diesel
Conv. Gasoline
2025
Millions of Vehicles Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
Other OECD China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
PHV/EVFull HybridCNGLPGDiesel ConvMogas Conv
2040
Millions of Vehicles Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 20400
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel
MBDOE OECD
Gasoline
Ethanol
Diesel
Biodiesel
Jet Fuel
Fuel Oil Other
MBDOE Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar /Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
0.7%
Quadrillion BTUs
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
2010
2040
-0.2%
1.6%
2.2% 0.3%
6.0% 1.6%
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
0.9%
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
U.S. Europe China India0
10
20
30
40
1990 2015 2040
CO2 Emissions Plateau
Billion Tons By Region
OECD
Rest of Non OECD
India & Africa
China
Tons per Person Emissions per Capita
2010
2025
2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Supply
By 2040
60% of global demand will be supplied by oil & gas.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
1
2
3
4
5
20400
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
MBDOE Liquids Supply
Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify
Conventional Crude and Condensate
Oil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
Tight Oil
Biofuels
Remaining Resource
Cumulative Production
TBO Resource *
* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
North America
Europe OECD
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
1000 TCF
Conventional
Unconventional
1.3
4.1
2.6
2.3
8.1
4.9
4.8
Global Gas Resource
Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD
• World: ~250 years coverage at current demand
• Large unconventional gains anticipated
World
Russia/Caspian*
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Unconventional Gas Contribution Increases
BCFD Production by Type
Unconventional Conventional
BCFD Demand by Region
North America
Middle East
AP Non OECD
Rest of OECD
Russia/Caspian
Rest of Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
North America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/ Caspian
BCFD
Pipeline LNG
Local Unconventional Local Conventional
By Type
Global Gas Supply Growth 2010 to 2025
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
North America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/ Caspian
BCFD
Pipeline LNG
Local Unconventional Local Conventional
By Type
Global Gas Supply Growth 2025 to 2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
REGIONAL SNAPSHOTS
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
100
125
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
25
50
75
100
125
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
North America Energy Demand and Supply
By Sector Quadrillion BTUs
By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs
Transportation
Industrial
Electricity Generation
Res/Comm
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear Biomass
Other Renewables
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Latin America Energy Demand and Supply
By Sector Quadrillion BTUs
By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs
Transportation
Industrial
Electricity Generation
Res/Comm
Oil
Gas
Coal Nuclear
Biomass
Other Renewables
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Europe Energy Demand and Supply
By Sector Quadrillion BTUs
By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs
Transportation
Industrial
Electricity Generation
Res/Comm
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
Other Renewables
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
25
50
75
100
125
150
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
China Energy Demand and Supply
By Sector Quadrillion BTUs
By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs
Transportation
Industrial
Electricity Generation
Res/Comm
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear Biomass
Other Renewables
0
20
40
60
80
100
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Percent Global Percent Mix of Fuels
1800 1900 2000 1850 1950
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro Nuclear
Other Renewables
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
2040
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