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E the P EU:A Tl M-Qv Sd
Dl J d Nl D
N. 65 | O 2015
WORKING PAPER
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2 | KFGWorking Paper No. 65| October 2015
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Edited by the Kolleg-ForschergruppeT T Pw E
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Sd, KFG W P S, N. 65, O 2015, Kll-F (KFG) T Tv Pw- E, F Uv Bl.
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Estimating thePosition of the European Union | 3
Estimating thePosition of the European Union:
A Tool for Macro-Quantitative Studies
Detlef Jahn and Nils Dpont
Abstract
T dvl dx E U v ly ld d
dll d. T dx dd -v d, w ly ly
dy vl xy EU d l, l d . T dx
E (E Cl, Cl M, C,
d E Pl) d qly d- l w -
. Bd -d dx l ly
w l d l d- l. T dx y EU
dl d l ly q
l w EU d . F, dx llw l-
l l d dll w EU d dvdl
l . Q dll EU l l
lyzd w . T ll dx w d l- d,
w v ly lv -qv d. T d vll qly d
l ldl ly 1966 2012.
T A
Detlef Jahn P Cv Pl D Pll
S, Uvy Gwld, Gy. H ld
ll , wl d vl l wll l
d dll d d l ly. Sld
l ld Gllz Gl Pl: T l
ly d wl dvl, Il
Oz (2006), d T wld vl l, D, A.(d.): M Pl Ely (MIT P 2014). Cly
Evl P d Pl (Cd Uvy P).
Nils Dpont w C Cv Pl
Uvy Gwld. H ld y dly d
y , v dly wll v wl
. H P.D. j dl w d y dll
. C: [email protected]
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4 | KFGWorking Paper No. 65| October 2015
Contents
L Tl d F 5
1. Id 6
2. A E EU P 8
3. Ply P EU I 11
3.1 The European Council 11 3.2 The Commission 16 3.3 The Council of Ministers 19 3.4 The European Parliament (EP) 23
4. T Llv P E U 25
5. Cl 33
R 36
Adx A: E Cl 42
Adx B: E C 45
Adx C: Cl M 47
Adx D: E Pl 49
Adx E: C P 50
Adx F: Fl P E U 51
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Estimating thePosition of the European Union | 5
L Tb F
F 1: P E Cl L-RD, 1966-2012 15F 2: P C L-R
D, 1966-2012 18Tl 1: V w Cl M 1958 2012 21F 3: P Cl E d Fl A
L-R D, 1966-2012 23F 4: P E Pl L-R
D, 1978-2012 25F 5: Hyl EU P d d D- Rl 32F 6: L-R P E U d I 1966-2012 33
F A1: Alv Mdll E Cl L-R D 42
Tl A1: Pw Cl Alv Mdl 43Tl A2: Dv S Sl d Idvdl Pw
( v 2012) 44F B1: Alv Mdll E C
L-R D 45
Tl B1: Pw Cl Alv Mdl 46F B2: P C d D W Gv
Pd d C 46Tl C1: Pw Cl Alv Mdl 47F C1: Alv Mdll Cl M
L-R D 48F D1: Alv Mdll E Pl
L-R D 49F E1: C P d D W 50
Tl E1: Pw Cl Alv W 51F F1: Alv Mdll Llv P EU
L-R D 52Tl F1: Pw Cl Alv Mdll
(L-R D) 53F F2: Fl P w Alv W
C d C P 54
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1. I1
T d E U (EU)2 j l w
E d l d lly dd. I d 80 ll ll d y v d y E U (Bzl/R 2000;
Hx 2005: 3). Hwv, l w EU l
(Sl/Kd 2004; Sl/K 2005; Sd l. 2010; T l. 2006; T
2011; Gl 2012). S ld l d dvdl d d v
y v, l E (H 1999; Bl 2004:
113; A/T 2009: 671). T v l
EU () ll y w wll ld l l. I l
d- l v d l, w ll
w , d EU w ll . I -
, l l v EU d l v l
l w . T l vw (Mv 1991, 1998) l v
d dl , wy w l l d y v
w d- ll . D- l w l
l v w, wll d d dv dv, y
(Hx/Hyld 2011: 16; T 2011: 188).
W lv d v l d x ly l d- l,
d. B d- EU vlvd v ,
vd v dy . T EU d- ly
dl wl l v l . T, w , d-
- d llw l d ld . I l
ly dl d l v dl d ll ll .
Hwv, l wll . Id w d
w EU d l, ly d . I
-qv d EU lzd dy vl w 0 EU
d 1 EU . T vy d w d
y d lyz l v l l (A 2007; Sw 2011),l xd (Kl/O 2003), vl l (Kll l. 2010), vz (O
l. 2014), x (Hy 2003). U dy vl EU d
l d llw : Fly, dy vl ly xy
1 Dl J wld l Tj Bzl d T R v P R
Fllw KFG 2012-2017. W vd ll wly d
. W lly d L H, Gy M, H Klv d w
y vw. C J (UNLV) l d v v . W -
l l , w w l . W l wld l
ll Gwld Uvy d lz d- dl. T d
d d-l d dd dwldd : ://vl.-wld.d.
2 W EU x, v w w w lld E Cy.
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Estimating thePosition of the European Union | 7
lx vl. F vl, d, dy y . Hwv,
vl w d/d v l l d
vldy lz l d. U dy EU
l ly d , w ly dw EU . Sdly, d y dy
EU vd v v (w x -
). Tdly, dy EU ll l v d l-
. T y vy l EU v d
EU dd dvdl v
. T d, w w ll dll w EU d ,
d w l dx dvld (J/D 2015). T dx d
llw ly v w EU d yd.
I d ll EU w d- w d w EU
1966 2012. T y 1966 Lx C,
w w dd y d d j l EU d-
d (H 2005: 68), d- EU y . T l y
w vll d 2012. W ly l- (J 2011) d d M
R Pll R (MARPOR; Vl l. 2013); y d d-
vd MARPOR -l w l (l x jd -
vy) ld dl.3Cly, ll E U vd
- v. - d l- d ( vvw
d vw M/S 2002). F llv wv, w l lv
l- d; d ly d W d d xl l d
ly ly d l (MDld/Bd 2005).
I , w ly d dx d ly w xl w
lylly ly . Cqly, l l ly ld.
T d llw wy: Fly, w y d ld dy-
EU . A x d , w l
lv -d d d d d dl.
T d d w ly d E . A dl w lyz E Cl,
E C, Cl M d E Pl (EP). Sqly, w
-l d- d dy l EU
l- d 1966 2012. Bd lyl dl w
d- EU, w l . Flly, l z
l.4
3 Hwv, d vll lv ll EU . I d dx d.
4 T d d vll dwld : ://vl.-wld.d.
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2. A E EU P
T llw d EU . Bd
w l . T l q w - EU vy wy (B d Mq 1994; K 2007, 2008; M 2002;
S l. 1999; Tl/G 2000, 2001; v d B 1991).5I y, w
v lly l. M l European Union Decides(DEU) d
w d 331 ly 1996 2008 (T l. 2012). A w
d w dl (Sl/Kd 2004; Sl/K 2005)
lyz d 1999-2001 (Gl 2012). T d d x jd ly
v ll . Lw, EU lyzd dvdlly
, l EP (MEly/B 2007, 2010)6, C (T 2008) E
Cl (Tll/J 2008).
O y d d v l d vll
(K 2007; Wj l. 2008; V 2011). Hwv, d
E w d- l . Wj l. (2008)
C, Cl M, d EP d v
v EU . U ld A (2006) w w
wd v w l d l d- -
. Hwv, A l vll,
d.
A (2006) d Sd l. (2010) xly w vl dl d ld
lwy d l dl v l. I ,
l l ly ly l d l . I
w ld l d- l l . T d
v d 1966 2012 d d DEU j, w
v d. I j d y d, w d
d llv EU, d dvld d .
T ld w : T l and - . T lyl l fundamnal quaon of polics,
5 I dd y T l. (2006) vl dl v dd. A (2006) vl
dl y lyz w xl. Mdl w d xlvly l d-
l ld l . T l, wv, dd
(Sl 2014; Lwv/T 2014).
6 F ld EP d v lyzd d ll-ll v ( x-
l A 1990; Hx 2001; Hx l. 2005). B v Wj d ll, w v dd ll ll
ly, v ldd d E , -
d, , E C (Wj l. 2008: 1245). T x l
ly y ld E l (S/W 2012), w V (2011) dl. Hwv, dd x lw, dl w MP E Pl
llw E ly l l .
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Estimating thePosition of the European Union | 9
w zd y Pl (1991; l H/M 1997: 17; Sl 1989: 137) :
P * IPll O. A d, w l l
l [] d w dd ly l
ll y [] l dll [] d (Tl/R 2011: 2).A q, dl dly-dv d w ly l dl
d lly v . T d EU , w
llv , d w l . I d
, -l d- d w v l d d ld l
EU .
I d EU l- d yly 7 1966
2012, w -d . A -d
dvdl (P M d Pd, C, M, d M E
Pl). T llv d, w dd y l d--
l d l d . Wl l l y lvly ly
dd, y v d qly v EU y. T l ly
ll lx, d j l. T d l
dl, . W l l d, w
l . S l d ly d
l vy d. W ly x jd lv l
w v E (T/Hl 2006). B ld l y
ly lv, w d dld d w d w dl
d lv dx.
Fl dl wll dl lly ly ld EU w
llv EU. T ly w dl x l l-
lv . T E Cl, Hd S, d y d
llv . Y, E Cl EU l
[] dl d jv C d w C l
dl (Hx/Hyld 2011: 32). F, [] E Cl vd d
w Cl ( ) [] (Hx/Hyld 2011: 32). T
E Cl [] ll ll d [] (Hy-Rw/Wll 1997) wy jy dd E Cl l d dl. Hwv,
C d Cl M, E
Cl d. T, w E Cl l d C d
Cl M .
B ly EU, w wll ly w w
EU . W E Cl, C,
Cl M d E Pl (EP) lv ly d? F ll,
7 T lly d qly d ly d yly d
qv --l d.
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d d dll E d . O
wy y d l . Wj l. (2008: 1247) ld
[] d EU v dly l ly -
ll w y l.8
F llv w E l- d. W dy d y MARPOR d
ly y- d -v l- dx dvld y J (2011). O ly ld
y d dvd MARPOR d y , x jd, d
ld d ly . W ddd ll dx
l- d lv xl l d
-v d. Hwv, dl ,
d E , w EU-l.
U l y x E Cl d Cl
M, w d l ll : d
l v. Mwl, l vd E
Pl (MEP) d w w l d l l
l v E y (Hx 2002, 2004). W y , -
l dl wl d d y ld . Al, l -
l l dd l, w MEP w l y d
E ll , y l lwy v w l y (Hx/Hyld 2011: 57). I
EP E d - EP l vd lv y
l MARPOR d (S/W 2012). Y, w d E d
EP : F ll, l EP lly dd d-d l
l (R/S 1980) l d ( Hx l. 2003 -
). F, ql v y ll, vd EP
l , xlvly, ly d v l (S
2005; Hx/M 2007; Hl l. 2009), wy v v ly d y y d-
d l EU l (S 2005). T d l: T
E d l dl l MARPOR d. T wld l
ly EP (d E) v--v E Cl
Cl M (d l MARPOR d). Ad lly, ll (lly
ly y) w d v MARPOR d E w d.
M l l d EP l y
C. Ad Al 213 EU Ty, - . I ,
wv, l wd l y v (T 2008).
T vl , v l
. C ld w l y
v, w d . M 70 C
8 Wj l. (2008) d l ly dy d dy
C, Cl M d EP. Hwv, y l ly d ly . Ty d lyz llv w
w wld dd, xl, EU l .
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Estimating thePosition of the European Union | 11
w 1967 d 2009 ld v C (Hx 2005: 46). T
d dly v y, 90 1990 (F 2007:
136-137; MMll 1997; W 2007). H (2001) l w C
ly d y ll y, y d w l lz C. F, C, l y lly vd w
C. I wd, C dd , d
lly (dll) l w v l . T, w y dly
dll l w C.
3. Py P EU I
T E U lx d- vlv v . T dy-
-dy ll dd y - d -d- E
C, Cl M d E Pl. Hw xly E ll -
w ly dd d d ll (B d Mq/S 1994; K
2004; Hl l. 2005; Sl/S 2004; T/Hl 2006; T l. 2006; T
2008). A d l d- l v
dd d d l ly d ly . T l d d w
ll l d l l ly EU. I ,
w ld d dl EUl -v ly. W
l dl d d-. Hwv, d v, w d
E Cl (d v) l C d Cl M.
W ly w E Cl.
3.1 The European Council
T E Cl d d v d d
E C, d w y. T y d d F d Cy E Cl. T d-
- l y d vy l v d. T d d -
d d lw d l. I wv, E Cl
ly d d E . T,
E Cl l vv ly l w v d lly yd
lvl lw d .
T dy E Cl vy x d y w dy
dl d . S 1 Jy, 2010 Pd
E U l d , w v l
v. F d, v llw
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w Pd E U, d y. Hwv, vy ll
w d E Cl, d d-
v v l d --d vvw E Cl (Bl/Wl 1987; J
1994; Wl l. 2004; Hy-Rw/Wll 1997). I lyl dy, Tll (2008) ddd q w E Cl. I qlv dy d
x vw w d d , wll E l,
ld v v d w d v
qlly v ll . T d d wd
lw d dd w dvdl .
M d dlly l w, , z y
(l) d w, ll . Tll (2008: 690) ld ly Ily
l l lv w l d E
d ll ly. Wl l w y dd
y, l, , ly ly, ll dvl, l-
l ly, dv y d y, w d
d dvy. W l (SPw1) d
(SPw2) d l w.
(1)
(2)
Explanaons: SPw Sl Pw. T l d GDP d
l EU l d GDP y. PMid ly
y i.
Tll (2008) ld l d dvdl d w dy -
. Il w d d- l. Tw lly l-
v x w: v d dy. E ECl v d, w v d ly. Sd
l v v w l l
w d w q (H 1988; H 1995: 32; S 1997). Hwv,
v E Cl w d. I ly d
l w . A d: Lx v
dd d B w (d Tll 2008: 691). T v l
w d l . T wld l v
E Cl d y . F,
v v d ll ld wy. T
v l wll w . P ly, v
l dv E Cl d l dl.
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Estimating thePosition of the European Union | 13
Id v, w, w w E dy,
v. Gd y ly w y. A
Tll (2008: 697) : I l v ll d d-zd d
Pdy w []. T w dy dvd l w dy d d y d
dd w wll dd w d, w zd d w ld.
Pw y lly y d w y
y ld l d :
The Presidency either travels to or receives all other heads of government in the weeks preceding the
summi. T forma of bilaral ncounr nabls ads of govrnmn o sar informaon abou
ir boom lins wi Prsidncy, us improving cancs of summi agrmns on conn-
ous issus (Tallbrg 2008: 698).
W lz l w E Cl
Pdy d. T Pd E Cl w
d . F , wd w Pd
E Cl d d . T -
l w Pdy (IPw).
(3)
Explanaons: IPw d Il Pw; PMi ly
y i; v d .
Flly, Tll d dvdl w E Cl. T
y d . T l E Cl,
/ w l l, d . T
w . A d v Tll dy (2008: 700) : J
ly w w 12 14 ll . 9Ex l
. Ex , d wld
E Cl. M dl qv ly w x y. Sy y l ly ld w x d l v
l ld d . T d dvdl w (IdPw)
q y vd E Cl.10
(4)
9 B l Pd C J-Cld J w Lx w d l ll .
10 B d zd l q, w ly -d .
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Ev ll E Cl y, y l
ly d vll.11Flly, E Cl
(ECPO) dd llw:
(5)
T E Cl l w llv EU. Oly D 2009 dd
E Cl l E . Hwv, E Cl d
l ll d d E U, wll vd U w -
y dvl (E U 2015), yl l- l -
w E Cl l d, d C d Cl M
(Hx/Hyld 2011: 23-34).12A yl l- ly, ly
dl y d d w l d l. A
A (2006) x w ll ,
d- dl w w
wd y w. W ly wd C
d Cl M, d, w E Cl, . F
, wv, w d d l d- l C d Cl
M. B w l d Cl.
11 O y z dl d d l l v d (l ll),
-l v w, -v dv (d-) dv l
(Sll j). Al w d dw l dl, w ll ly -v
v w d -lvl. T wl-
d l, ldl d vll y w . A
A (2006) , dld , wd
. I dl d ld w d l d dvdl
d w w ll l. I l, l ld -
ldd dl y -v v ly dx (J 2010). T wld q
ld ly, T (2001) d Sll j d ld vy -
vly dd (d l wld ) d
. S ly yd , d w lv
.
12 O dl l- l EU dly. Hx d Hyld (2011: 25-27)
l v l d C . F (2007) d Cd l d EU ll l. All dl v v
. Hwv, l v l vd
ll EU. I wld ly 27 l w dvdl (llv) .
T v v y d
l w E Cl. T l. I dl
y l llv , d l v.
T, d d v E Cl
l. Wl lz Cl M dd,
l v, w d y ld vw
Cl M : Fly, y v. I
l, dl (Lv/Sl 1996) w v jd l
v, y dv v . Sdly, w d
l v l d , E Cl y dv dly
Cl.
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Estimating thePosition of the European Union | 15
I d ld w E Cl, w
d w ld dy, l E Cl d
l lld v d w x (F 1).13
Figur 1:P E Cl L-R D, 1966-2012
-20
-10
0
10
20
Right
Left
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Position of European Council Position of presidency
Maximum position Minimum position
Source: A.
I 45 y vd y d, w d wd l l 1970. T
v L d d d Edd L 1973, w w Bl P
M d Sl Py, wll Wlly Bd (Sl D Py Gy) 1974. I d l 1976, J d Uyl D L Py (PvdA) d
l-l dy d. T v w ld y l d wd -w -
l 1970. I d l 1980, dy Ud Kd, l
Bl d D, ld E Cl . I d l 1986, d
dy M T E Cl -w y.
Hwv, M. T w dd 2002 y Ad F R, D d
ld vv-ll y V (V). A -w d-1980, l
-v l l d d G, S d F ll w d
13 Adx A v dll y lv dll d dv
l d dvdl w d.
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Sl D . Y, -w lly dd 1990 d
v L w ly l wd d dd d A P M V
Kl (SP) d G ll Gd Sd (SPD). I w ll, -w
d d, v w l dd w y ld dy.I , l d wd d d y R.
3.2 The Commission
T E C l d- E l, d ly -
ll d E C J.
T C zd l d v w xv ,
Cll C. T Pd C ql. Hwv, /
vll ly d C y l w , l
d d Cll, d / S
Gl, w v w D Gl. W v , d q
l jy, w C Pd dd v v .
T C l l l l v.
T C lwy d l l, C d, ll d -
vv (MMll 1997). Hwv, ll d ll l d
d - Cll (Hx 2005: 44). I d
C, w dl d- w Pd d dll
C ld l .14T dl
d Pd C (PC) d C w -
l (CPl). B v wd ly
. Wl Pd l d, C
v x v l (R 1995: 162, 197; S 1996: 244-246) d -
lly l d w w.
T d w Pd d C w l ( w ) d l w l w
C. T wd C l
Pd d C (Cl1
), d
l (Cl2
) d , l l jy vd. T v
C dd jy C.
14 W l d l Cl E M d
lly d y l- d. F ly l d Cl
M y lv. S J (2016) ly vl l d v-l l d Cl Evl M. I d dy J l ld vl ly
d dd l- l.
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Estimating thePosition of the European Union | 17
(6)
Explanaons: CP = C; PC = ly Pd C; C
l= ly C w v l.
B C E Cl l C
:
(7)
F 2 w C l- ly d.15Wl C
d, lly ld . Ud dy G Wl
Hll (CDU), C q d d L
l 1960 d Bl Ll J Ry d Il C D F Ml. S Ld
Ml D PvDA (1972) d Ry J B L Py (1977-1981) d
l d. Ty w d y F Gll F-Xv Ol (1973-1976),
l l (1977-1981) w d J. Hwv, -
J Ml dy w l d
l 1970.
15 A w E Cl, w d vl lv l d . T
dl dd Adx B.
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Figure 2: P C L-R D, 1966-2012
-20
-10
0
10
20
Right
Left
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Position of European Commission Position of commissioner (economic affairs)
Position of presidency
Maximum position Minimum position
Source: A.
T ll l w d vl . M
y w d w l , dl . T
() wd .
1977-1981 wd Bl Dv (-ld), F F-Xv Ol (Gll)
d Lx Ryd Vl (LSAP) L-l d Ry J (L).
W dy G T, R d d w lly vd d dy v M F, F Sl Jq Dl. T w G
Al P (SPD), d dl w vv I P Sld (FG), S
Al M (PP) d B F A Cld (Cvv) (1985-1989). C
dd dlly l Dl w l d w D H
C (V) d G M B (FDP), w ll d (1989-1993).
Wl l R l 2000 d R Pd d J Ml
B, ll dvd R-w L-w . N ly, dl-
w ll vv , wl l d
d dd .
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3.3 The Council of Ministers
T Cl M d v d
xv d llv w. T Cl dy w ll y EU. S 1970, dy Cl vy x
d y. Olly, dy xd l.
Adly, l z dy l l d
l. Al wldd ld dy d
d, y d v dv (B 1988; S 2000; Wl
1995; Hy-Rw/Wll 1997; Alxdv/T 2013). Hwv, l d
vw. S l dy v v x
[] govrnmn a olds prsidncy as considrabl conrol of lgislav agnda insid
the Council. Each government takes over the presidency with a central part of the presidencys work
program and will b on agnda of all ky Council mngs. Howvr, prsidncy can only ac
on s issus if lgislaon is proposd by Commission. Convrsly, if prsidncy dos no lik a
Commission proposal, i can simply rfus o pu i on Council agnda. (Hix 2005: 80-81)
T l d y l d w w ld dy d -
ly d vly w v (Tll 2006;
S 2000; Tll 2010). Idd y z d w w l
v w d d v v ddl lv EU d-
d w (Sl l. 2007: 245). Wj (2008: 334)
[] ly l xd w ld dy
l l v C. L w E Cl, ll
vd ld dvl dl wy w dy
Cl M.
T Cl lly dd y d y v l v
. T w v l Cl:
Uy, w v d ll d - v . A l Lx w (l) l Cl
l Sl E A (SEA) (Tdl 1993).
Qld-jy v (QMV), w v wd d z -
l, d v-zd jy qd ll d. T l
.
T v d y l lzd d w w x -
, . Ay dv wld ld
ddvd l d. W ll dl
l d, y d. Flly, :
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(8)
Explanaons: CPUy= P Cl M d y; CM= ly l l EU ; C
Mx= ly - l
EU
T Sl E A 1 Jly 1987 w v d QMV l.
Sqly, w dl d- Cl E d Fl A d QMV.
W Cl w ld dy. T Cl
l l Cl, d l . w l qld
jy d. T l Cl Cl w
dd qld jy.
(9)
Explanaons: CPQMV
= P Cl M d QMV; CP = ly
Pdy Cl M; C = ly l EU .
T dl ld l 2010. I d v y, L Ty ld
v d, w presidency trios. T w -
dy x l ll d . T ,
Cl 2010 d w . B l l w
w l w, llw w . T
dy wy dy w , wl d d -
v d v w . F , dy l l
Cl, d l . l qld jy d:
(10)
(11)
Explanaon: CP = P Cl M; CRP = P Pdy
Cl M; CP = C Pdy; SP1d SP
2= Sv Pd;
C = Pl EU .
Tl 1 w v w y Cl M 1958
2012. I l w qd q qld jy d ld l y.
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Table 1: V w Cl M 1958 2012
01.01.
1958
01.01.
1973
01.01.
1981
01.01.
1986
01.01.
1995
01.05.
2004*
01.11.
2004*
01.01
2007*Bl 2 5 5 5 5 5 12 12
F 4 10 10 10 10 10 29 29
Gy 4 10 10 10 10 10 29 29
Ily 4 10 10 10 10 10 29 29
Lx 1 2 2 2 2 2 4 4
Nld 2 5 5 5 5 5 13 13
G B 10 10 10 10 10 29 29
Ild 3 3 3 3 3 7 7
D 3 3 3 3 3 7 7
G 5 5 5 5 12 12
Pl 5 5 5 12 12
S 8 8 8 27 27
A 4 4 10 10
Fld 3 3 7 7
Swd 4 4 10 10
Cy 2 4 4
Cz Rl 5 12 12
E 3 4 4
Hy 5 12 12
Lv 3 4 4
L 3 7 7
Ml 2 3 3
Pld 3 27 27
Slv 3 7 7
Slv 3 4 4
Bl 10
R 14
Tl 17 58 63 76 87 124 321 345Qld jy 12 41 45 54 62 88 232 255
( % v) 70.5 70.6 71.4 71.0 70.9 72.2 73.9
Bl y 6 18 19 23 26 37 90 91
( % v) 33.3 31.0 30.1 30.2 29.8 29.8 28.0 26.4
Explanaons: * Ud Ty N l jy qd: (1) qld jy, (2) jy
, d (3) 62 l . Addlly, l y
d .
Source: A.
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T y dd y v d- l,16 , Cl
M (-
dl), d v w ( dl),17
wd v l (llv v dl). A w C, Cl M l E Cl. Sl C, w
wd w E Cl d Cl M:
(12)
F 3 w l l l- d.18R d d
d vd E Cl. T ly d-1970 w l v l d
ld vl v ( xl Gy, Bl, D, d Nld),
l d l (Ild, Ily). Hwv, y l 1970, l
x l. I d l 1983, d G dy Ad d Lz
(PASOK) dd y F v, l l d d
L l d d ly. 1986 1988 wd
vv v w: UK d M. T, Bl -y l d
C d ld, d D d G vv-ll l, v
Cl M R-w ld .
T v l 1990: T UK d Ty Bl, l d A l d
Gy d- l d Cll Gd Sd dd Cl .
Hwv, D dy 2002 d wd . I ,
Cl M ld R-w . A E
Cl, dy ld . T d d QMV,
wv, lly d .
16 Rly d (OMlly 2007; S l. 2003) d l y(Bl S 2009) l l ly Wd d dd d
dy d- l v ( dld d d ly J 2016). T l
ly ll ll W d wll S, D, Pl d F l;
w PM. T d l d A, Fld, Nwy, Nld,
Swd d Bl, ll w w d llv d-. T
l l ld Gy, Ily d G, w v l y v l.
I ll d w v v d
wd (llv d-). F Cy d, w
l xlv w (K-Ldy 2009).
17 A w l ( wd y ) dvd-
lly; l l ll .
18 F Cl E d Fl A, w M F M EA. I x v y, w Idy/Td, lly v-
. S Adx C lv dl.
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Figure 3: P Cl E d Fl A L-R D, 1966-2012
-20
-10
0
10
20
Right
Left
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Position of Economic and Financial Affairs Council Position of presidency
Maximum position Minimum position
Source: A.
I , d l lly E Cl. Mwl, -l
dy v ld q d dl .
3.4 The European Parliament (EP)
T EP ll y EU l US C y d
l E. T EP qd v EU-v
w jy EP. T EP lvly dd. L US
C, EP dd ll. Hwv, l EP w
US C, l llv d v ( lw).
S 1979, E Pl (MEP) ld EU-wd l vy v y.
T MEP y , j w l . T w MEP
dl d US C d l y EP d
lyl MEP d v y d , y
EP dl. Al l v v v v , d
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MEP d w w l lly d l
, w d d d (Bwl/Fll 1993; N/Fl 1997; Hx 2002; F
2003).19O j l y ld l -l
MEP, y EP. A dy ly l d y EP, w ly d l-
l l d v y EU. T dy ld
[] y d ly EP x l l y (MEly/
B 2010: 396).
T EP v d l jy l. T dl dll
EP (EPP) l:
(13)
Explanaons: EPP = P E Pl; MEP = ly M E
Pl.
T dll EP d MEP w dll d. T
EP d ly v MEP lly MEP
. T, w l (d) v d ().20
I l- d, E Pl lly dv -w
(F 4). Ty w lly d ly 1980 d d-1990. Oly
2004 dd -w d. T w d lly
l w 1987 d 1992.
19 O F (2003: 859) : lzd dd l , lly d
MEP d; l v y , lly d MEP d;
l y MEP, lly d MEP d; -
y-d ll y , lly d MEP d; d y lv, d MEP lly d.
20 Nvl, Adx D dll d.
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Figure 4: P E Pl L-R D, 1978-2012
-20
-10
0
10
20
Right
Left
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Position of European Parliament
Maximum position Minimum position
Source: A.
A v dd E Cl, C, Cl M d
E Pl, w w q d EU.
4. T L P E U
T llv lly d y C, Cl M d E
Pl. B E Cl vlvd llv , w
Cl M Cl. Hwv, llv EU dl dl
-v ly. I w d l E -
. Ev w wld l ll v d v d
d- ly lzd d l. I dd, d l ly
v d ly ld. W lly dl y
ly w d w v dd y Cl d d l
v l (V 1997; H 2007). T y lld ly d
w ld y Cl d Jly 1987, Sl E A d
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.21By 2000 w ldy 200 . T v d (dvy,
, ly, d, Cl l) d w w d w
d v C.
Cly zd q, lly d v
d. Hx d Hyld (2011: 37) z ly:
Undr som procdurs of comiology sysm r is a sparaon of powrs, wrby lgisla-
ors ( govrnmns) can scruniz xcuv ( Commission). Undr or procdurs, owvr,
comiology as crad a fusion of powrs, wrby mmbr govrnmns can in som rspcs
nforc ir wiss on Commission, and so xrcis bo lgislav and xcuv auoriy.
T d C w d Cl v C -
C d l. T l w d C -
l w [] C ly d xly w wll
d l , d d dly (Hx 2005: 57). T
y v l j- ll ld w l
d y C dd y Cl lly llv l-
(K 2007: 427).22Wl EP ly vlv l lly 1999, w
d w dd d 2006, w w ly d w y
v EP v d v--v C d Cl ll ld. I
dd, l w , wl EP dd , (ll) d
w l l (C/Dl 2012).23
I lx llv d- EU ld dl d-
l w . T l v dy w W
w EU? (T/Hl 2006; B/Pll 2009). W dl EU d
lyz llv , w v ld ly l dl (Tl/G 2000; T/
Hl 2006; Hx/Hyld 2011). Hwv, dl dly l l ly
vl : Fly, y d E d
( C d EP Cl) w d
y (H 2001; Wj l. 2008; Hx/Hyld 2011). Sdly, dl ly d-d q (G 1995: 296). T q lly d
21 I w d J 1999, ly Ad Ty d .
22 K (2007) ld d 1984-1999 76 l dd y Cl.
Hwv, l v d ly, l w d l d
dd. Hx (2005: 56) 4,357 d C 2000, ly
vl w xd y l x d ly x l w d
Cl.
23 D (2007: 210) v llv l EP. O
Tl (1994) ld wdly d l w dld w EP
y v dl d- w. T d l EU ly.F, d d w EP v dl d- w d ld
j dy.
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Estimating thePosition of the European Union | 27
-, w y l v d lly. I
ly ld d E , l q .
T, w d dl d- w dd d q. Tdly,
dl d- EU ly d l d l .T ly d y dl.24Ty y v l
C d l l d-.
I d lyz EU 1966 2012, w llw Sl
E A (SEA; d 1 Jly 1987), Ty E U (M Ty;
1 Nv 1993), Ty Ad (1 My 1999), d Ty L (1 D 2009)
.
(a) T Lgislav Procss undr Luxmbourg Compromis: B SEA 1987, llv d-
- EU d d Lx C, w d dd
1966 d lv ddl w F d . I w l
, w d w j qld jy v, wld
d y l l w d . B
d d l , d y w
dd .
T llv d w C l l d d
dd d l w v d dd. Awd Cl w -
ld d EP v . T, Cl d ldy d l
w l ll d y dd. T EP d l w l -
d. Ll w ly EP l d EP ld v y v.
Evlly, Cl wld dd y y QMV j l. Ad
d d y y. S Cl w vlvd d C l d
l ddd , y Cl ld EU (EUPO)
l 30 J 1987. 25
(14)
24 I vl v d- dl, A (2006; 2006) dl ly ly
l l w dl w l d : T l
dl dl d l x. Ty d j l l, l
l w l d (A 2006: 298). T ll ,
wv, w l l dl d w w w l
l. W ld l w ly d w l
ld dy ( v).
25 T l d y l l dl d x jd. C ,
Tl d G (2000: 12-13) : Ev d- w d w v-
d l d q. W l w d w
C, Cl d EP, T d Hl (2006: 412) ld: F j l w EP d v Cl M, - w ll
w Cl d C d EP.
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(b) T Lgislav Procss undr Singl Europan Ac (SEA): T llv d d SEA
w 1987 d 1993 w lld d. T SEA C w d
. T d- d llw: T C d l;
E Pl d d; EP , Cldd l w qld jy w C P; Cl wd
d l, dd v, w j
l d ; C P w d d EP; EP -
vd C P d d w , Cl ld d
llv ; EP ld j l y l jy w Cl ld
vl ly y d w .
I d dl v d, llv d l-
ld : () C P, () d d
EP, () vd C P y C, d lly (d)
d l vd C P d Cl.
T C v d- d l-
w Cl. El d (T/Hl 2006: 409) w Cl w
d C. I wd, l ldy -
Cl l d. A q, dl l
C d C P dl lyl .26
(15)
T C P EP d d, w dd w l jy,
d l dv. Nlly l d dd. I
y dd (4,500 1987 1993 (Tl/G 2000: 19)), w ly :
(16)
T C j d EP d
ll d . W , EP C P l C, d. I , j
d EP d l C P. T dd C
P 2 C l d. Flly, w z l-
lv llw:
(17)
26 S Adx E lv w C P.
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T d C dd y Cl QMV ( y).
Hwv, Cl ly d y y. T dd C P ld
wy Cl wll ll . I wd, Cl l,
w d y C. W dl dj y w ddC P w d Cl:
(18)
Ud d, w C d ld
l d w: y l l l ( w
Cl ly ) d d , d
EP. T EP l vd dl d w dd w ld d
(Tl 1994; Tl l. 2001). I C d EP wd ( C -
d EP), y w llv EU, v
lly w ll ly d Cl.
(c) T Lgislav Procss undr Co-Dcision I Procdur: F 1 Nv 1993 l 30 Al 1999,
llv d w ly ddd -d d. T -d dl dd
y M Ty lld -d I d; w l vd y Ad
Ty (w -d II). T w EP d- -
llw Cl d EP -dd v l C (J
2011). T w w j l d w d d -d-
I. Fly, Cl ld j EP d d y C. Id,
Cl C ll Cl d lly ql
EP d d d d j x. Sdly, Cl C
ld j x, Cl ld C P. T Cl l
lw l l jy MEP vd .
T -d I l d d. A
, Cl . T v Cl dl w
w v l w . I v ll d
EP, j d dd C P. T [] Cl d d d -d I ld lly Pl y
v wd (Tl/G 2000: 23). T, dl
-d I d llw:
(19)
T C P lly d -d I l
Cl, v C ll l.27T EP ll
27 Hwv, ll, l C Pl C d Cl w Cl
d 100:33 l ly.
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-d I d. I Ty M [] dd Pl
-ql ll [], d [] ld v jv (Tl/G 2000: 23).
(d) T Lgislav Procss undr Co-Dcision II Procdur: F 1 Al 1999 l ly 2003, -d I d w dd v EP, Ty Ad O 1997.
T -d II d dd d l w -d I w
dd ( Cl l l Pl, d Pl d w j ). I
wd, Cl C l -d II. T d q
llv EU. B Cl d ql
MEP w Cl C, EU d -d II d ly
w w . W , ld lwy w
Cl v d EP d: [] Cl d EP wll ly l
d w Cl d EP dl [] (Hx 2005: 105). T
l d dl :
(20)
S dl d C . Ev C -
l l (lly 100 , lly ly, d d),
w Cl d EP, j C P, xld C. I
l dl d x jd w C, Cl d EP,
l w d -d II 15 C, 100 Cl d 25
EP (T/Hl 2006: 413). T dl l w C,
w xldd dl lyz l llv .
() T Lgislav Procss ar Nic Tray: T Ty N d 1 Fy 2003.
I l d lv w Cl d EP. Hwv, N Ty
d llv d, d dl d ll
Cl d d w v. T dd ly EP d-
l Cl l y w Cl.
I , w w Tl d G (2001: 372-376) C l w d w ld -d I -d II. Hwv, wl dl
C d w 1987, Tl d G (2001: 374) ld
C d [] dl v llv []. T d
w d v Cl w y 1987 w
Tl d G lyz xlvly QMV.28 W d d C
28 A Cy d Hx (2011) : [] C dd ly l vv -
d q, d d ly d l. T
C d ld d- w SEA. Ad T d Hl (2006: 410),
Cl v d d. A d v, d v Clld ll w wl C d EP ld . Hwv, d qld jy v w -
l d - w 30 C 15 EP d 100 Cl.
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w w EP. Hwv, C l l
ly d d d y EP. T v l l
C, vd wd Cl. T
C d -d I, lly w Cl. Hwv, l w -d II d, x w -
l l l w Cl ly .
T EP llv v C. T EP d
d l d. I d d d
w d w d y C. Ud -d I, l ll
l C P w C d Cl. T EP
d -d II. H Cl.
T Cl w l d v v llv l. I w -
d l w y l. I w ly w d d
w C d EP d dl d- w (Tl 1994). I w
d -d I d. H C P lly d, d
, Cl d 70 . T Cl l -d II
d w w w EP (50 ).
S yl ll dl. I 1 l
Cl v x d (3 l 0 10), d C (10) d EP (9)
lly d. T ylly d E . T -
l l EU : 3.0 d l, 4.94 d , 4.75 d -d
I d 6.0 d -d II. T l w d y d.
I 2, Cl (1) w w EP (2) C (10). T l
1.0 d l, 2.13 d , 3.25 d -d I d 1.5 d -d II.
I w v d Cl (1) d C (2) d EP
(10), l 1.0 d l, 1.13 d , 1.25 d -d I d
5.5 d -d II. Flly, w v Cl ddl (5) d l EP d (1)
d C (9) ( 4), w lv EP d Cv . I l : 5.0 d l, 5.5 d , 6.0 d -d-
I d 3.0 d -d II.
Ud l, Cl lly d . Ud , C
l v l lly dl , v Cl d EP l
, d lly EP d C d ( 4).
T d -d I. T w EP d C l -
vly. T EP w d -d I, w d y l. T
d dlly d -d II, w C l w EP. T Cl
l w d- d xl. Hwv, l -d I
Cl d w w w C w EP. I , d
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-d II Cl dvd w EP. Uly, l-
EP d C y Cl. F 5 vlz
d d- l EU.
Figur 5: Hyl EU P d d D- Rl
Co-Decision II (1999-)
Co-Decision I (1993-1999)
Co-Operation (1987-1993)
Consultation (-1987)
Institutions
0 2 4 6 8 10
Scenario 1
0 2 4 6 8 10
Scenario 2
0 2 4 6 8 10
Scenario 3
Co-Decision II (1999-)
Co-Decision I (1993-1999)
Co-Operation (1987-1993)
Consultation (-1987)
Institutions
0 2 4 6 8 10
Scenario 4
Position of EU
Council Commission Parliament
Source: A.
W w E Cl, C, Cl E d Fl
A d E Pl d ly llv d ld v,
ld EU l- d w y ld l F 6.29
29 Adx F dll d l EU y lv
.
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Figur 6: L-R P E U d I 1966-2012
-5
0
5
Right
Left
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Position of European Union Position of European Council
Position of Commission Position of Council of Economic and Financial Affairs
Position of Parliament
Source: A.
I l- d, EU vd L 1970 1980
l d d ly. All llwd d d l l ld
wd l d-1970. F l 1970 d-1980, ll E
C ld ly . Al EP w l-l
d-1980 d-1990, v l E . F d-
1980 l d 1990, E Cl d Cl ld ll E . I d ddl ,
v E Cl -l Cl M.
5. C
T dy lyl dx EU lv ly d d
l -v d, w w EU d
l d . T dx ld l lyz v w
EU.
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T j ll d dx. A ll
w vd l d EU l- d 1966 2012. T dx d
d d d y -v ly.
M-v ly lly wll qd lyz l EU
. M l dy vl d EU . T d
dy vl EU- l d v wy w EU
. F, dy vl x d- ql-
v lx vl, w dl . O v w dy
vl l v , w v d w EU . I
d -v vl. E EU d
- d -l d- d dlv vl.
By a singleEU y j EU y . A ly w,
ly . My w v vlvd E l,
w y d- l d llw dly l. V
vlvd E d- v ld d- l d ld -
v y l v. Hwv, d dy EU x
v ly ld. E lv ,
d dl, w l l ly l l, lv
lx v dl . W l
d l w EU. Hwv, d wll v w
w y EU dl v -
(w lly d w EU-dy vl) .
T dx dvld d dd q, w v
ly ddd. F , EU l v
EU ld l d y- dx dll . O ld
l l z EU ly ly
wd w , w ll. S ly wld d -
lylly ly dy vl, w d
EU .
T ly dll w EU d l v -EU lv-
. I , w d ll EU d l
( F d Gy), EU lly w
ll ? F, ly ld l vl lv w N d
S ld d w . Alyz dll wld l dy d-
ly l w EU d y l d w
d EU.
A wy d wld v EU. S ly ld
dd lvl d l, d, w EU, . I
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dd EU ddl v ly. T , ly vd
l ly v . I d ( xl Sd 1996; Cl 1996) l
v d ( xl d , dl, l y, d,
dly d ) d EU dd l.30
By dx EU lyzd v ly d l ly v ly
v G Tl (J 2010). I l ll dll
w dvdl EU d, d , lld ly EU
(K/P 2001). S ly wld l y EU
d dy ly .
Aly dll ldy dwy (J/D 2015). A l-
ly d, w lly d dll W d, d
l ld dll d wll ( l v-
l l xl J 2016). Hwv, dl wld v djd.
Alyz ly d wld ly q d ( v-
l d E ) l dj l w
( , C w vl l Cl Evl
M dd).31Hwv, l d ly
d d l ( B/Lv 2012; Sl 2014; Lwv/T 2014), d-
l zd w dll vl ( d
ly d d , lv d x jd, l ly, .) d
dj l w d-. Al w
ldy v, l l d v .
30 F d y vpointly vplayerly J 2010. F,
l vl dl d. Tx
wld ll vl vl dy vl, w wld d
l ldy d .31 D w d lz, w dd dx w vl ly
d, dwldd : ://vl.-wld.d.
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References
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E U 2015: T E Cl, : www.l..//-l, A-d: 15 S 2015
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Ax A: E C
I d dll l E Cl w
lv . F A1 w v lv E Cl: dl d dl ld x. T dl A
(2006) wd ( ll ) d l d l
d- dld ( l xl Wj
l. 2008), wl d dl Cl w v d l -
jy l. T v dl w l w lly d l, l
(dy) dvdl w (y).
Figur A1: Alv Mdll E Cl L-R D
-5
0
5
Right
Left
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bargaining model Mean model Median model
Weight: Population Weight: GDP Weight: Seniority
Weight: Institutional power
Source: A.
T dl l l w d l d dvdl x
d w y. I dd, w l
w dy. T l l w Tll (2008) d lly
ll d d-zd v dy, wd y .
T w l vw (Tl A1): B dl d dl -
l ly (P = 0.951), d w l w l w d
l d y. I dl l andl d-,
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d dl l w E Cl. T
dl, wv, wld dwly ll d d-zd y
d- w dy. B E Cl dd d y QMV,
d y v d, d dl , wld l d l jy l. I l w , d dl lw l w
dl d w w dl.
Tabl A1: Pw Cl Alv Mdl
B
dl
M
dl
Md
dl
W:
Pl
W:
GDP
Wig:
Seniority
Wig:
Insuonal powr
B
dl
1.000
M dl 0.951 1.000
Md dl 0.827 0.870 1.000
W:
Pl
0.973 0.914 0.807 1.000
W:
GDP
0.964 0.902 0.809 0.991 1.000
W:
Sy
0.963 0.961 0.838 0.935 0.922 1.000
W:
Il
w
0.882 0.824 0.679 0.767 0.747 0.792 1.000
Source: A.
I l d y , q llw w v w?
Tl A2 dv w.
I l w, l : Pl d d -
l (P = 0.964), l l dw l l d. Hwv, ly l wly w y (P = 0.203 d 0.311
vly). I l w Tll (2008: 690) Ily l l l w
E d ll ly, w Ily vy lw
y, l lvl w Cl d E E . T l, wv, v ly -
ly E U. S y l w v
d l-d dvdl x. Sy ly
, ly d ll ly v: W
M. W, M. T, M. S d M. J Lx, xl, ly d y
1964 ( y), wl d Ily
d y 19 d . T w (ll) ll
ly d y ll . A ldy d v, d
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v Tll dy (2008: 700) ld: J ly w w
12 14 ll .
Tabl A2:Dv S Sl d Idvdl Pw ( v 2012)
Pl GDP Sy
Cy M M Mx SD M M Mx SD Mean Min Max SD
A 1.93 1.68 2.14 0.21 2.37 2.20 2.70 0.13 0.39 0.18 0.75 0.18
Bl 3.32 2.15 5.20 0.94 3.55 2.70 5.10 0.77 0.39 0.16 0.73 0.16
Bl 1.50 1.47 1.54 0.03 0.29 0.25 0.31 0.02 0.34 0.25 0.42 0.07
Cy 0.16 0.15 0.17 0.01 0.13 0.12 0.14 0.01 0.38 0.25 0.49 0.09
Cz
Rl
2.14 2.08 2.23 0.06 1.11 0.87 1.23 0.14 0.24 0.17 0.34 0.06
D 1.55 1.11 1.97 0.30 2.18 1.83 2.83 0.29 0.44 0.18 0.74 0.17
E 0.28 0.27 0.30 0.01 0.12 0.09 0.13 0.01 0.43 0.21 0.64 0.15
Fld 1.24 1.07 1.38 0.14 1.48 1.42 1.53 0.03 0.40 0.18 0.64 0.14
F 18.34 12.55 27.03 4.45 20.32 15.17 28.66 4.20 0.50 0.23 0.85 0.18
Gy 22.76 16.37 32.49 4.73 28.56 19.53 43.55 6.66 0.49 0.18 0.91 0.19
G 2.89 2.22 3.64 0.44 1.65 1.36 2.00 0.18 0.37 0.15 0.65 0.14
Hy 2.08 1.99 2.21 0.09 0.79 0.75 0.84 0.03 0.27 0.18 0.40 0.07
Ild 1.08 0.88 1.30 0.14 0.96 0.60 1.53 0.32 0.36 0.17 0.75 0.15
Ily 18.63 11.83 28.64 5.29 15.40 12.13 20.70 2.35 0.26 0.14 0.48 0.09
Lv 0.45 0.41 0.50 0.03 0.15 0.11 0.18 0.03 0.27 0.16 0.43 0.10
L 0.66 0.60 0.74 0.05 0.22 0.17 0.26 0.03 0.35 0.18 0.48 0.10
Lx 0.13 0.10 0.18 0.03 0.24 0.18 0.33 0.04 0.59 0.18 0.99 0.22
Ml 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.00 0.47 0.16 0.68 0.17
Nld 4.81 3.32 6.97 1.09 5.34 4.47 7.03 0.79 0.42 0.15 0.78 0.16
Pld 7.91 7.68 8.35 0.30 2.59 1.93 2.95 0.36 0.30 0.16 0.52 0.13
Pl 2.64 2.11 3.12 0.35 1.34 1.03 1.50 0.13 0.42 0.17 0.70 0.15
R 4.12 4.02 4.29 0.10 1.03 1.00 1.12 0.04 0.31 0.15 0.45 0.12
Slv 1.11 1.08 1.17 0.04 0.50 0.43 0.55 0.05 0.37 0.20 0.62 0.15
Slv 0.42 0.41 0.44 0.01 0.28 0.26 0.30 0.02 0.30 0.18 0.45 0.10S 10.58 9.10 11.97 0.98 7.69 6.55 8.90 0.70 0.52 0.18 0.84 0.17
Swd 2.14 1.85 2.38 0.24 2.86 2.48 3.16 0.17 0.46 0.19 0.72 0.17
G B 17.20 12.41 21.94 3.31 16.18 13.34 19.07 1.60 0.44 0.18 0.79 0.17
Total 7.30 0.08 32.49 8.26 7.30 0.04 43.55 9.04 0.42 0.14 0.99 0.18
Nos: Gy dd vl d w vl w. Sources:
Pl: ES; GDP: Wld B; Sy: w ll.
Source: A.
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I , dl l E Cl l d lly -
l w v l d l l w
d- w dy. I dd, y y w l
l andl d- w E Cl. Wl dl y lly y, l w vd qlv d.
Ax B: E C
W d d- dl y dl,
ld x, w dl, d dl, d llv dl (F B1).
T dl j l- l, w llv dl w
E C w E Cl (w
l dl ld). I C x
, l d (llv dl), dd v ld
y E Cl.
Figure B1: Alv Mdll E C L-R D
-5
0
5
Right
Left
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bargaining model Mean model Median model
Legislative model Position of European Council
Source: A.
When considering the pairwise correlaons (Table B1) our bargaining model and the legislave model cor-
relate comparavely weakly (Pearsons r = 0.835). Unsurprisingly, all correlaons of the legislave model with
the principal-agent models are relavely low, indicang the substanal impact of this modelling decision.
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Table B1: Pw Cl Alv Mdl
B dl M dl Md dl Llv dl
B dl 1.000M dl 0.859 1.000
Md dl 0.898 0.971 1.000
Llv dl 0.835 0.489 0.547 1.000
Source: A.
T lw l d d dl w q dl -
dy d l v l. I
d d v ql w d d
w E C (without l- dll)
lv dl: Fly , dld x (ql w), dly, w l
ll w v Pd (99:1) d dly w l ll w v C (1:99).
F lly d w l w C l. I
lv w w C, q
d vll, ll l l w . F B2 d l l
lv. Al dl dv, ld , l- l
-100 +100. A d, ld lw .
Nvl, Adx F w w d y l EU
w lv w.
Figure B2: P C d D W Gv Pd d C
-5
0
5
Right
Left
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Upper and lower boundary Bargaining modelSource: A.
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I , dl l E C dv
l- l, wl d dl within C d l d.
Ax C: C M
Dd j, Cl M lly v d qld jy v l
y l. F C1 llw lv dl: Cl dld
x, dl, Cl lly d y v l d QMV, d QMV
wd y v, d llv dl ( , Cl w E
Cl).
T d QMV d QMV wd y v dy: Ud
QMV dy l l d w l y v w -
. Hwv, y l ld l l
l. I , QMV wd y v v v w
l . T l d dll d Cl lly dd
y . T dy v l d v l d
w l v w, v w l d d
; vl , / ly d y
l. T wld , dy - w
wy dl .
Table C1: Pw Cl Alv Mdl
Bargaining model Mean model Unanimity QMV weighted
by votes
Lgislav modl
B dl 1.000
M dl 0.906 1.000
Uy 0.922 0.946 1.000
QMV wd
y v
0.868 0.924 0.848 1.000
Llv dl 0.752 0.703 0.669 0.881 1.000
Source: A.
Tl C1 w w l v dl. T dl y w
w x l dl, , ly d xv
. T lw l dl d QMV wd y v l
Cl w dlld d y l 1987 ( l w l -
y dl). W l l d 1988 2012 ly (w QMV
l), dll QMV wd ( dl) wd y v d
dlly l l (P = 0.907). T l dl
d dl (P = 0.906) , w d
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48 | KFGWorking Paper No. 65| October 2015
dl l andl d-. Uly, llv dl
x vy lw l ll dl. T d y F C1, w l ll
dl l- d.
Figure C1: Alv Mdll Cl M L-R D
-5
0
5
Right
Left
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bargaining model Mean model Unanimity voting rule
QMV weighted by votes Legislative model Position of European Council
Source: A.
Sl C, Cl M d x ,
dd y E Cl. T , wv, lw. T, ,
dl l Cl M d dl Cl E Cl, w C
Adx A. Uy d wll dl, wl v
w (l lly ) d l l y l d.
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Ax D: E P
T E Pl E Cl, ly lv dl
d, ly d dl. Hwv, v E Pldd d jy l, dl l . F D 1 w dl l-
d d dl d ( w l dl q lw w
P = 0.639). Ex d d-1980 d-1990, dl
d dl, w d vl . T
dl l x -w dl.
Figure D1: Alv Mdll E Pl L-R D
-5
0
5
Right
Left
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bargaining model Mean model
Source: A.
L v dl -l d-, -
ld j d w w lz C d
Cl E Cl. F vw l-
dl, l d E Cl. Hwv, dd
w dvdl , y (lly) l
dw.
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Ax E: C P
Al l d (T/Hl 2006: 409) w Cl M w
d C d d (1987-1993) d -d I (1993-1999), ld d w l. I d w
d, w lv (lv l- dl d): T
dl, dd x, v w Cl C
(F E1). T d dl v ql w , wl d v , ,
C wl. T l w dl w 99:1 d 1:99.
A xld Adx B, q d vl, d l
vl.
Figure E1: C P d D W
-5
0
5
Right
Left
1985 1990 1995 2000
Upper and lower boundary Bargaining model
Equal weight Power to Commission (3:1)
Source: A.
T w l (Tl E1) vw Cl M dd wl,
l dl d ql w d
dl w C w. I , Cl lly l dw
l w dl . Hwv, v d ql w
d l, lly ll l- l -100 +100. Adv
w C wl E d
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y d l, l w dl, l w ql
w dl, lly lw.
Table E1: Pw Cl Alv W
Bargaining model Equal weight Power to Commission
LR
B dl 1.000
Eql w 0.925 1.000
Pw C 0.627 0.876 1.000
Source: A.
Ax F: F P E U
E dll d l . T, w y
dl, ld x, w dl, d dl, d
llv dl (F F1). Gv l d l, w ld
vy . Nvl, w dl, wd
, w d dl d jy v l. Flly, ll-
v dl l E Cl w v y , d
C Cl M w d . I d w w
w vl w d l (F F 2), ly
w w d d w E C ( Adx
B dl), d w w C d Cl M w
( Adx E dl).
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Figure F1: Alv Mdll Llv P EU L-R D
-5
0
5
Right
Left
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bargaining model Mean model
Median model Legislative model
Source: A.
A d d d, d dl
C d Cl M E Cl. Elly 1980
E U wld v l-l wl l wld v l l w ll
dl. I , wl EU wld lly x , dd y
E Cl. T l w dl, d d dl
lly l l. T d y w l (Tl F1): All l 0.93. I llv dl lly l
dl, w w ll E , wll ll - d -l
d-, . T d dl dv ly dl. T
llv dl lw l w d d dl.
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Table F1: Pw Cl Alv Mdll (L-R D)
B
dl
M
dl
Md
dl
Llv
dl
Pw
wC. 99:1
Pw
wC. 1:99
C
P. 1:1
C
P. 3:1
B
dl
1.000
M
dl
0.954 1.000
Md
dl
0.936 0.954 1.000
Llv
dl
0.966 0.870 0.867 1.000
Pw
w
C. 99:1
0.997 0.961 0.937 0.959 1.000
Pw
w
C. 1:99
0.998 0.948 0.932 0.966 0.992 1.000
C
P. 1:1
1.000 0.956 0.939 0.963 0.997 0.997 1.000
C
P. 3:1
0.999 0.958 0.939 0.962 0.998 0.995 0.999 1.000
Source: A.
Tl F1 ldy d w vl w d, w lv
d (1987-1993) d -d I (1993-1999), v ly l
vll l. W w d d ,
C w d Cl M y , -
dlly l (ll l > 0.99). D dl ,
w Adx B d E v w l d w l w y w E U v d l
l . A d, w d l. Hwv, w ly
v dl, w l w (qlv) d.
All l ql, F F2 l l EU w lv w. Al
w dl, w l w d w
w C (Pw w C 99:1), d v v (Pw w C
1:99). T l dl ll l w Cl ql w
C P, y, w C w
Cl M.
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Figure F2: Fl P w Alv W C d C P
-5
0
5
Right
Left
1985 1990 1995 2000
Bargaining model
Power within Com. 99:1 Power within Com 1:99
Common Pos. 1:1 Common Pos. 3:1
Source: A.
T : Al (w) d vl , l
l. I , dl , wl d dl
(ylzd) jy v l, l w dl l
l d l d l E U, d dl w
l ly.
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T K-F - E A Ex
I R
T Kll-F (KFG) d ld y G R Fd (D F- - DFG) 2008. A R Cll, dd v-d lly l v vv w ll d j .
T Kll-F T Tv Pw E -v w d d d . D , 2008-2012, KFG dd d ly d d w E U (EU), dd d d. D d , 2012-2016, KFG l d d,l, d yd E (v l)d ly EU v d xl .I w :
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