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013T h e O u T l O O k f O r e n e r g y : A V i e w T O 2 0 4 0 u. S. e d i T i O n
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Explore our complete Outlook for Energy,
or download your own copy, at
exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook.
7/30/2019 Energy Viewto 2040_Exon
3/24The Outlook or Energy: A View to 2040
The words energy andscape is aways changing the resut o new technoogies,
government poicies, economic and popuation trends, and consumer choices. Today,
nowhere is the energy andscape changing more than it is in the United States.
U.S. oi and natura gas production has risen to its highest eve in three decades, as advances in technology
have unlocked vast resources o oil and gas that are located in shale and other tight rock ormations in many states,
including Texas, North Dakota and Pennsylvania.
This domestic energy renaissance has created signicant economic benets or the United States, including: lower energy
costs or businesses and individuals; increased manuacturing activity; millions o new jobs; billions o dollars in taxes and
government revenue; and new opportunities to expand Americas role in the global energy trade.
ExxonMobis Outlook or Energysees U.S. oi and gas production continuing to grow over the coming
decades as shale and other unconventional resource output combines with new supplies rom the deepwater
U.S. Gul o Mexico and elsewhere. ExxonMobil expects North Americas liquids and natural gas production to riseby about 45 percent rom 2010 to 2040, boosted by U.S. activity.
But rising energy production is only hal o the story.
The United States aso continues to reduce its energy consumption. Largely because o ongoing eciency
improvements, rom 2010 to 2040 energy usage in the United States the worlds second-largest energy consumer
ater China is projected to all by about 5 percent, even as the U.S. population grows and economic output doubles.
ExxonMobil expects that the combination o these two trends steep gains in energy production and modest declines
in U.S. consumption will enable North America to become a net energy exporter by about 2025 and bring signicant
benets to the U.S. economy, including opportunities associated with natural gas exports.
Reduced U.S. energy consumption also will provide environmental benets, especially when combined with another
major energy trend under way in the United States: a pronounced shit away rom coal in avor o less-carbon-intensive
uels such as natural gas. ExxonMobi expects that by 2040, Americas carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions wi
have aen back to eves not seen since the 1970s.
O course, the United States is just one part o the global energy market, which must meet the needs o a population
projected to rise rom 7 billion today to close to 9 billion by 2040. ExxonMobil sees global energy demand rising by about
35 percent rom 2010 to 2040, driven by growth in China, India and other ast-developing countries in Asia Pacic, Arica,
the Middle East and Latin America.
ExxonMobil has served Americas energy needs or 130 years. We hope this U.S. version o our global Outlook for Energywill
shed light on the transormative changes that are reshaping Americas energy landscape, and the opportunities they present
to urther strengthen the countrys economy and its role in the global marketplace.
Note: Excerpted rom ExxonMobils 2013 global publication, The Outlook for Energy. The complete report can be
ound at http://www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
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Energy demandAccess to energy remains vital not only to the l ives o the more than 300 million
Americans, but also to U.S. businesses and industries that use energy to
support jobs, technologies and the provision o U.S.-made goods and services.
But the relationship between Americas economy and its energy usage is
changing. Ater climbing steadily or decades, U.S. energy demand will level
o and begin to decline through 2040 even as its economy and population
continue to grow. This undamental shit will be driven by improvements to
energy efciency, especially in the transportation sector.
2 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
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5/24The Outlook or Energy: A View to 2040 3The Outlook or Energy: A View to 2040 3
30%Electricity demand, the single biggest
driver of energy in the United States,
grows 30 percent by 2040.
2010 2040
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Global population
Billions of people
21
18
15
12
9
6
3
02000 2020 2040
4 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
Popuation, economic growth drive energydemand, both gobay and domesticay
Global GDP
Trillions of 2005 dollars
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2020 2040
Global energy demand
Quadrillion BTUs
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
02000 2020 2040
United States
Rest of world
Energy saved~500
Energy savings throughefficiency gains
i
Global demand or energy is expected to rise by about
35 percent rom 2010 to 2040, a signiicant increase that
will require trillions o dollars in investment and ongoingadvances in energy technology.
One reason or rising energy demand is population growth.
Although the rate o growth is slowing, by 2040 there will be
nearly 9 billion people on the planet, up rom about 7 billion
today an increase equal to six times the current U.S.
population. Another actor is rising prosperity and economic
growth around the world, which will create new demands
or energy. Global GDP is projected to expand by about
130 percent rom 2010 to 2040.
Energy demand trends will vary greatly by country type.
Among members o the Organization or Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD), which includes the
United States, energy demand will be essentially fat through
2040. In these more mature economies, increased energy
demand rom economic growth will be oset by improvements
to eciency. In Non OECD countries, such as China and India,
demand is seen rising by 65 percent as rapid increases ineconomic output and prosperity levels outpace gains in eciency.
The expanded use o energy-saving technologies and
practices in every country, and across all end-use sectors,
will save a tremendous amount o energy an estimated
500 quadrillion British thermal units (BTU) a year by 2040.
In act, ExxonMobil projects that global energy demand
growth through 2040 would be nearly our times the projected
35 percent were it not or expected gains in eciency.
Improved eciency, plus the shi t to less-carbon-intensiveuels, also will help curb greenhouse gas emissions; globally,
energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to plateau around
2030. Trends will vary greatly by country, however, with
emissions rom OECD nations alling by about 20 percent
and Non OECD emissions rising by 50 percent.
75%75 percent of the
worlds population will
reside in Asia Pacific
and Africa by 2040.
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7/24The Outlook or Energy: A View to 2040 5
America will use less energy even as GDP doubles
Ater many decades o rising energy consumption, the United
States appears to have reached a point where it can continue
to expand its economy and prosperity while maintaining a airly
stable level o energy usage.
As the worlds largest economy, the United States already
has achieved relatively high living standards. The country alsohas relatively high per-capita energy use, as energy-related
technologies everything rom vehicles to air-conditioning
are already widely deployed throughout the country. As a
result, over the next ew decades, underlying undamentals
that would tend to drive increases in U.S. demand or energy
will be more than oset by gains in energy eciency.
Overall U.S. energy consumption is expected to gradually
plateau and then decline by about 5 percent rom 2010 to 2040,
even as GDP doubles. One actor supporting U.S. economic
expansion is its population. While populations in many OECD
nations will shrink over the next 30 years, the U.S. population
will expand by more than 20 percent, with steady gains in its
working-age group (those 15 to 64 years o age). Broken
down by sector, U.S. demand or uel or electricity generation
will rise slightly, but all in the other major demand sectors:
transportation, residential/commercial and industrial.
U.S. energy demand by sector
Quadrillion BTUs
100
80
60
40
20
02000 2020 2040
Electricity generation
Transportation
Industrial
Residential/commercial
U.S. energy demand by fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2020 2040
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass Otherrenewables
U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions by sect
Billion tons
6
5
4
3
2
1
02000 2020 2040
Industrial
Electricity generation
Transportation
Residential/commercial
U.S. shits to less-carbon-intensive uels
The United States wil l cont inue i ts shit toward less-carbon-
intensive uels, particularly in the electricity generation sector.
U.S. demand or natural gas will rise by more than 25 percent
to 2040. Technologies that have expanded production o
shale gas across the U.S. will help meet this demand.
Wind, solar and biouels also grow sharply; by 2040, theserenewable uels will meet about 7 percent o U.S. demand.
U.S. use o nuclear power is expected to rise by about
25 percent rom 2025 through 2040. On the other hand,
U.S. coal consumption is expected to drop by more than
65 percent; by 2040, coal will account or about 7 percent
o U.S. energy, down rom more than 20 percent in 2010.
This is due in part to new policies and regulations that wi ll
eectively raise the price o more-carbon-intensive uels.
Because o improved eciency and the increased use o
natural gas, renewables and nuclear, ExxonMobil sees U.S.
energy-related CO2 emissions alling by more than 25 percent
rom 2010 to 2040, reaching levels not seen since the 1970s.
However, even by 2040 U.S. per-capita emissions still will be
higher than in other countries.
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Residential/commercial demand by sector
Quadrillion BTUs
20
15
10
5
0
2000 2020 2040
Residential
Commercial
Residential/commercial demand by fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
20
15
10
5
02000 2020 2040
Oil
Other
Gas
Electricity
Coal
Eciency to curb demand inresidentia/commercia sector
The residential/commercial sector represents Americas single-
and multi-amily residences, plus commercial buildings such as
oces, stores, schools and medical acilities. Nearly 30 percento the energy used in the United States is directed to this end-
use sector, counting both direct energy usage (e.g., natural gas
or cooking and heating) plus net delivered electricity used in
these structures.
While direct energy use in the residential/commercial sector
will all by more than 15 percent over the Outlookperiod, total
energy demand (including delivered electricity) in this sector is
projected to rise slightly, by about 5 percent.
In the residential subsector, demand is expected to peak in2025, then decline through 2040. One reason is improved
eciency, the result o actors such as better insulation and
energy-saving appliances. U.S. homes already have seen
signicant improvements in eciency. While new U.S. homes
built since 1990 are nearly 30 percent larger than homes built
beore 1990, total energy demand or residential use grew by
only about 20 percent over the last 20 years.
In the commercial subsector, total energy demand is expected
to rise by more than 10 percent between 2010 and 2040,
largely because o an expected steady increase in commercial
square ootage in the United States.
One noteworthy growth area is hospitals. According to
government data, in 2003 hospitals accounted or 4.3 percent
o U.S. commercial energy demand; by 2007, that number had
risen to 5.5 percent. In addition, hospitals tend to require about
twice as much energy per square oot as most other types ocommercial buildings.
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9/24The Outlook or Energy: A View to 2040 7
Industrial demand by sector
30
25
20
15
10
5
02000 2020 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Other
Heavy industry
Chemicals
Energy industry
Industrial production
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Indexed to 2000 = 100
2010 2025 2040
Domestic manuacturing and other industrial activity is expected
to grow steadily over the next ew decades, in conjunction with
projected U.S. economic recovery and growth.
The industrial sector which includes heavy industries such
as steel and machinery as well as agriculture, chemicals and
energy uses oil and natural gas not just as uel but also
in many cases as eedstock or the manuacture o other
products, such as plastics and ertilizer. Over the coming
decades, rising North American oil and gas production is
expected to continue to support the expansion o U.S.-based
industrial activ ity.
North Americas chemicals production is expected to rise bymore than 20 percent in just the years rom 2012 to 2020, and
ertilizer production is seen ris ing by nearly 50 percent rom
2010 to 2040. By 2015, U.S. steel production is expected
to return to 2007 levels, as the economy recovers and
commercial construction and manuacturing expand.
ExxonMobil expects energy consumption in this sector will rise
slightly through 2025 as industry responds to lower natural gas
prices. Yet even as U.S. industrial activity increases, rom 2025to 2040 energy consumption will decline by about 5 percent,
refecting ongoing improvements in eciency such as process
intensication and energy-use management systems. In act,
the energy required or a constant level o industrial production
will all by about hal over the Outlookperiod.
One o the biggest improvements in eciency can be seen
in the energy industry subsector (including U.S. oil and gas
production and rening), where energy usage is expected
to all by more than 25 percent, mostly because o the
expanded use o advanced energy-saving technologies suchas cogeneration.
Demand or energy or the heavy industry and chemicals
subsectors is projected to rise in the range o 5 to 10 percent
over the Outlookperiod as economic opportunities exist to
expand output.
Industria activity to expand,but energy demand stays fat
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New ue-economy standardsto curb transportation demand
Overall energy demand in the U.S. transportation sector is
expected to peak shortly ater 2015 and decline by 10 percent
over the Outlookperiod. The United States will remain thelargest consumer o energy or transportation, but by 2040 its
share o global transportation demand will have allen to about
15 percent, compared to about 25 percent in 2010.
Federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards
call or U.S. auto companies to raise the average EPA-rated uel
eciency o the light duty vehicles they sell in the United States
to 34.5 miles per gallon by 2016 and 54.5 mpg by 2025. These
new rules will require signicant changes in the U.S. light duty
feet, which in 2010 had an EPA-rated average o 28.4 mpg.
While actual on-road mileage typically is lower, achieving thesestandards will have a dramatic impact on uel consumption.
Advanced vehicles are expected to account or more than
50 percent o the feet and about 80 percent o U.S. new-
car sales by 2040. Conventional vehicles also will need
to become smaller and more uel-ecient to meet the new
Transportation demand by fuel
Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day
15
10
5
02000 2020 2040
Gasoline
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Diesel
Jet fuel
Fuel oil Natural gas
Other
Light duty vehicle fleet by type
Millions of vehicles
300
250
200
150
100
50
02000 2020 2040
Natural gas/LPG
Conventional gasoline
Hybrid
Electric/Plug-in hybrid
Conventional diesel
Transportation demand by sector
Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day
15
10
5
02000 2020 2040
Light duty
Heavy duty
Aviation
Rail Marine
uel-economy standards. As a result, the average on-road uel
economy o new U.S. light duty vehicles is expected to rise to
about 45 mpg by 2040, or about twice the 22 mpg level in 2010.Nationwide demand or uel or light duty vehicles will all by
one-third over the Outlookperiod, even as the number o these
vehicles on U.S. roads rises by approximately 65 mill ion.
On the other hand, U.S. demand or uel or commercial
vehicles trucks, planes, ships and trains will rise by
nearly 35 percent, as a recovering economy spurs increased
movement o people and goods.
Another change on the horizon is the potential use o natural gas as
a transportation uel, particularly or certain trucks and other heavyduty vehicles that can more readily recoup the higher up-ront costs.
ExxonMobil sees natural gas accounting or about 7 percent o
U.S. heavy duty vehicle demand by 2040, compared with less than
1 percent today. However, ExxonMobil continues to expect very
limited use o natural gas in light duty vehicles due to competing
technologies, such as hybrids, having broader appeal to consumers.
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When consumers set out to buy a new vehicle, cost and unctionality are top concerns. Buyers consider not only purchase cost,
but also the cost o uel or the vehicle over its lietime. So while making cars and other light duty vehicles more ecient and
reducing vehicle emissions is a shared global goal, consumers generally will choose vehicles that meet that goal at the lowest
cost to them. Through 2040, ExxonMobil sees most consumers gravitating to three options based on key decision criteria
including unctionality requirements o the vehicle or the users, the cost o various options, and the relative saety, perormance
and convenience aorded by various vehicles. Consumers also must consider other actors, such as driving range. Because
gasoline and diesel are energy dense, they contain more energy per ll-up than ethanol, compressed natural gas (CNG) or
electric vehicle batteries; this enhances consumer convenience by reducing the need or reueling stops.
Technoogies that make conventiona vehices more ecient. Because it is relatively inexpensive to improve the eciency
o todays vehicles, this is the only option in which consumers uel savings over the rst ve years o ownership equal or
exceed their added costs. Technologies such as turbocharging, higher-speed automatic transmissions, improved aerodynamics
and reduced weight can improve uel economy and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 30 percent. ExxonMobil expects
automakers will make increased use o these technologies as they seek to meet government uel-eciency mandates.
Advanced vehices. O all advanced-vehicle technologies, hybrids will oer by ar the best value or consumers.
By 2030, ExxonMobil expects that, on average, the cost o hybrid vehicles (like the Toyota Prius) will be about $2,000
higher than that o a similar-sized conventional vehicle, while a standard electric vehicle (like Nissans Lea) will be abou
$7,000 higher and a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (like the Chevrolet Volt) will be about $5,000 higher. In the case o
the standard electric vehicle, consumers would not recoup that higher purchase cost within ive years unless gasoline
prices were more than $7 a gallon; with gasoline at $4 a gallon, it would take 11 years to break even. Additionally, the
CO2 emissions o electric vehicles vary signiicantly based on the uel source used to generate their electricity.
Smaer vehices. Whether they drive conventional or advanced vehicles, consumers can improve uel economy by up to
35 percent by switching to smaller, lighter vehicles.
The economics o consumer decisions will change as vehicle technology develops and as the prices o uels rise and all.
Consumer decisions will naturally evolve over time as their particular needs change, vehicle technology develops, and the
economics o buying and operating a vehicle change. Ultimately, the choices made by consumers will determine how the global
vehicle feet and related energy demand evolve in the coming decades.
Vehicle efciency:Costs infuence consumer choices
The Outlook or Energy: A View to 2040 9
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Power generation shits tonatura gas, nucear and wind
The generation o electricity is the single biggest source o U.S. uel
demand today, accounting or about 40 percent o consumption.
Over the next ew decades, the use o less-carbon-intensive uels
(natural gas, nuclear and renewables) will grow substantially, while
coal declines. Coal, which produced about 45 percent o Americas
electricity in 2010, will account or only about 15 percent in 2040.
This orecast refects assumptions about the implied cost o CO2
in the United States, which serve as a proxy or a wide variety
o potential policies that might be adopted to stem greenhouse
gas emissions. The Outlookhas implied CO2 costs in the United
States and other OECD countries reaching about $60 per ton in
2030, rising to about $80 in 2040.
The biggest growth or power generation will be in natural gas,
which emits up to 60 percent less CO2 than coal when used or
electricity generation. As in many other countries, natural gas is
expected to be the uel o choice or U.S. electricity generation or
several reasons. New gas-red generating units are ecient, easy
to build at a reasonable cost, fexible to operate, and supported
by abundant U.S. gas supplies.
Use o wind and solar also will grow substantially. However, wind and
solar ace challenges related to economics and reliability considerations
(see page 11). Also, considering the costs o capturing, converting and
storing wind and solar energy, these sources will require subsidies,
mandates or a higher cost o CO2 to be competitive.
By 2040, about 85 percent o Americas electricity will likely
come rom natural gas, nuclear and renewable uels, compared
to about 50 percent in 2010.
In addition to curbing emissions, the shit away rom older,coal-red plants to more ecient natural gas acilities will also
save the United States a substantial amount o energy. While
U.S. electricity demand is expected to rise by about 30 percent
through 2040, because o this improved eciency, demand or
uel to generate electricity will remain largely unchanged.
Electricity generation fuel consumption
Quadrillion BTUs
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000 2020 2040
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Oil
Wind and SolarBiomass
Other Renewables
Average U.S. cost of electricity generation in 2030
Cost per kilowatt hour in 2012 cents
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0Gas Nuclear
* Wind and solar exclude costs for backup capacity and additional transmission.
Coal
NoCO2cost
At $60per tonof CO2
Reliabilitycost*
Onshore Wind*
Reliabilitycost*
Solar PV*
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13/24The Outlook or Energy: A View to 2040 1
Wind and solar energy comprise an important and growing part o the global energy mix and have an important role to play
in meeting energy needs. However, or decades, people have been working to overcome the challenges associated with
harnessing the wind and sun to generate energy. The key obstacle is the intermittent nature o these natural resources: The sun
doesnt shine 24 hours a day and the wind doesnt blow continuously.
To generate electricity rom the sun, photovoltaic solar panels capture light energy, or photons. Various weather conditions
can substantially impact the eectiveness o solar, or example when the air is humid or is o poor quality or when the skies are
cloudy, making solar electricity generation intermittent.
Wind power generation depends on how ast wind is blowing. I wind speed is too low or too high, the turbine cannot generate
electricity. This makes wind electricity generation variable and intermittent. In act, studies indicate that it is not uncommon or
wind turbines to operate at only 5 to 15 percent o capacity during peak electricity demand.
The availability o wind and sun at certain times o the day also actors into their use as reliable sources o energy. Solar power is
best during mid-day. However, in many regions o the world, peak electricity demand occurs in the aternoon when air conditioning
load is highest. In other regions, peak power demand occurs during winter evenings, when the sun has already set.
Because solar and wind cannot be relied on to always generate power when electricity is needed, other more fexible types
o generation, such as hydro, coal or natural gas, must remain on standby to ensure reliability o the power system. However,
hydropower is limited in supply and coal power generation emits the highest amount o CO 2 and is slow to start up. That makes
natural gas the generation uel o choice to complement wind and solar.
Gas emits up to 60 percent less CO2 than coal when used or electricity generation. Gas plants are quick to start up and adjust
to demand, are quicker and less costly to build, and have a smaller environmental ootprint. Because gas generation produces
minimal sulur or particulates emissions, it can be located in populated areas. And unlike coal, onsite uel storage is not required.
The intermittency and variability o wind and solar generation limit their practical abil ity to meet electricity demand when
required. The need to have additional generation to ensure a reliable electricity supply increases their cost relative to alternatives
like gas and nuclear. Thats why, even though by 2040 wind-powered energy grows by seven times, it will only account or
about 7 percent o global electricity supply. Likewise, solar power generation is expected to increase by more than 20 times,
but will only account or about 2 percent o global electricity supply in 2040.
Electricity 201:The challenges oharnessing wind and solar energy
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Energy supplyThe United States continues to enjoy access to an abundance o energy
sources. Through 2040, oil will remain the countrys most popular uel,
but oil demand is expected to all as American vehicles become more
uel-efcient. Natural gas usage will rise sharply as U.S. electricity
generators shit away rom coal. Expanding North American production
o oil and natural gas the result o technologies that have enabled the
development o energy rom shale rock and other sources will help
meet U.S. energy demand and reduce the need or imports.
12 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
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15/24The Outlook or Energy: A View to 2040 13The Outlook or Energy: A View to 2040 13The Outlook or Energy: A View to 2040 13
65%Oil and gas willcontinue to supplyabout 65 percent
of U.S. energy
demand in 2040.
OTHER
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North America natural gas resource
Thousand trillion cubic feet
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2040
Cumulativeproduction
Remainingresource
U.S. shae boom wi hep meetgrowing demand or natura gas
North America has abundant resources o natural gas a uel
used to generate electricity, heat homes and buildings, and
power industries. Spurred by demand or less-carbon-intensiveuels, U.S. consumption o natural gas is projected to rise by
more than 25 percent through 2040, when it will satisy nearly
one-third o Americas energy needs.
In recent years, domestic supplies have been greatly expanded
by advances in technology that have enabled the United States
to tap the vast quantities o natural gas located in shale rock,
which previously were considered too costly to produce. U.S.
natural gas production is at its all-time high, and expected to rise
by more than 45 percent over the Outlookperiod.
This expansion in domestic gas production continues to have
positive eects on the U.S. economy, including providing an
abundance o reliable and aordable energy or consumers
and businesses, the creation o millions o new jobs, billions
o dollars in taxes and other revenues. It also will provide
signicant new economic opportunities or North America as it
transitions to a net natural gas exporter by about 2020.
Shale and other unconventional supplies rom North
America will play an increasingly important role in meetingglobal demand or natural gas, which by 2025 will have
overtaken coal as the worlds second-most-consumed uel.
Unconventional gas production also is expected to expand
overseas, as the shale technologies developed in the United
States are applied in other countries.
About 60 percent o the growth in global gas demand will be
met by unconventional sources, which by 2040 will account or
nearly one-third o global gas supply. Unconventional resources
also include coal bed methane and tight gas.
Even with the projected increase in its natural gas production
through 2040, North America will continue to have signicant
gas resources in the ground an estimated 100 years supply
at current consumption rates, a number that has the potential
to expand as technology advances.
Global natural gas supply
Billions of cubic feet per day
600
500
400
300
200
100
02010 2025 2040
Rest of worldconventional
North Americaunconventional
Rest of worldunconventional
North America conventional
14 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
80%By 2040, close to
80 percent of North
America gas supplieswill be produced from
local unconventional
resources.
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17/24The Outlook or Energy: A View to 2040 15
Rising oi production wireduce the need or imports
Oil and other liquid uels are critical to economic growth, and
to the transportation that moves people and goods. More than
95 percent o U.S. transportation relies on gasoline, diesel, jetuel and other products rened rom crude oil.
U.S. liquids demand is expected to decline by about
15 percent through 2040. This will be largely the result o
steep improvements in uel eciency or cars and other
personal vehicles, which will more than oset continued strong
gains in demand or uel or heavy duty trucks and other orms
o commercial transportation. At the same time, advances
in technology are transorming oil production in the United
States, Mexico and Canada.
Ater decades o relatively lat product ion, output o oi l
and other liquid uels in North America is projected to
rise by about 40 percent rom 2010 to 2040, as declines
in conventional crude oil are more than oset by rising
production o resources that until recently could not be
produced economically. The biggest contribution will come
rom Canadas oil sands, where production is expected to
triple over the Outlookperiod, reaching about 4.5 millionbarrels a day by 2040.
Large gains also are expected in production o tight oil (oil
extracted rom shale in states like North Dakota), biouels
(oil produced rom corn and other agricultural products) and
natural gas liquids (NGLs) liquids associated with natural
gas, including shale gas. Another major contributor will be a
projected doubling in production rom deepwater sources,
mostly in the U.S. Gul o Mexico. U.S. production o oil and
other liquid uels is projected to rise by 35 percent rom 2010 to
2040, reaching about 12 million barrels per day o oil equivalent
Not only will these trends reduce the need or oil imports
into North America, but ExxonMobil projects that by about
2030 North America will transition to become a net exporter
o liquid uels.
U.S. liquids supply and demand by type
Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day
30
25
20
15
10
5
02000 2020 2040
11
6
4
i l
il
Net imports
Liquids demand
North America liquids supply and demand by type
Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day
30
25
20
15
10
5
02000 2020 204
Crude and condensate
Other petroleum
Canadian oil sands
Biofuels
Net imports
Liquids demand
9
3
i l
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S P E C I A l S E C T I O N
7/30/2019 Energy Viewto 2040_Exon
19/24The Outlook or Energy: A View to 2040 17The Outlook or Energy: A View to 2040 17The Outlook or Energy: A View to 2040 17
Global tradeEnergy imports and exports have been an important part o international trade
or more than a century. Over the next ew decades, North America will play
a new role in the global energy marketplace, as its rising oil and natural gas
production will enable the region to transition rom a net energy importer to a net
exporter. But one act will not change: Whether imports or exports, expanding
trade opportunities or any product including energy helps economies grow
and increases the prosperity o people in the United States and around the world.
50%Meeting global oildemand today requires
about one-half of the
worlds supplies to be
traded internationally.
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Regional energy balances
Quadrillion BTUs
In-countrysupplies
Countryimports
9489
94
United States
2010 20402025
113
121120
In-countrysupplies
Regionalimports
North America
Regionalexports
2010 20402025
Energy trade heps ue economic growth
From ancient caravans to the e-commerce o today, people
have long engaged in trade to meet their needs. Trading
exchanging something you have or something others have
that you need or would preer benets both buyers and
sellers, and acilitates global economic growth, prosperity
and constructive relationships between nations.
Energy imports and exports are part o that picture, and
they are undamentally the same as the thousands o other
products traded globally on a daily basis including grain,
cars, computer products and steel.
Expanding trade opportunities or U.S. products including
energy creates economic value and strengthens the global
supply chain upon which all consumers depend. One-hal o
the oil used every day around the world and one-quarter o
the natural gas is traded international ly.
North America to become a net energy exporter
But the global energy market is dynamic, as evidenced by
whats happening today in North America. North America
is capitalizing on advances in technology that have tapped
huge energy resources shale oil and gas, oil sands, and
deepwater, or example that previously were uneconomic to
produce. At the same time, because o advances in energy
eciency and other trends, North Americas demand or
energy is expected to be essentially unchanged rom 2010.
The net result is that ExxonMobil expects that North America
which in 2010 imported 15 percent o its total energy and
35 percent o its oil is likely to transition to a net energy
exporter by about 2025. ExxonMobil expects that by 2040,
North America will have the opportunity to export about
15 percent o its natural gas production and about 5 percent
o its oil production.
In contrast, Europe and Asia Pacic are likely to continue to
call on international markets to meet a substantial portion o
their energy requirements. ExxonMobil expects that by 2040,
Asia Pacic nations wil l be importing close to 40 percent
o their total energy demand. The economic growth in that
region, and the energy required to uel it, will open more
opportunities or global trade.
18 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
15%By 2040, North
America will have
the opportunity
to export about
15 percent of itsnatural gas and
5 percent of its
oil production.
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2011 supply and net imports of crude oil and products
Nigeria 4%
Mexico 3%
Russia 3%
Iraq 2%
Colombia 2%
Algeria 2%
Venezuela 5%
Saudi Arabia 6%
Canada 13%
Angola 2%
Kuwait 1%
Norway 1%
United Kingdom 1%
Ecuador 1%
U.S. Virgin Islands 1%
U.S. supply
55%
U.S. net imports
45%
U.S. shale gas growth will provide expanding
economic opportunities through LNG exports
For example, rising demand or natural gas in Asia Paciic
and elsewhere will require the expansion o the global market
or liqueied natural gas (LNG). LNG, which is transported
on the water via tankers, enables natural gas to be shipped
anywhere in the world not just to places reached by
underground pipeline.
The United States is emerging as an exporter o LNG into world
markets, as projected growth in shale and other U.S. natural gas
production will provide enough supply to not only meet domestic
demand, but also additional supplies or export. As a study
commissioned by the Department o Energy recently concluded,
U.S. LNG exports will, under any scenario, have a positive eect
on the U.S. economy and the real income o U.S. households.
U.S. benefts rom access to global oil market
As the worlds largest oi l consumer and its third-largest oil
producer, the United States will continue to play an important
role in global oil trading.
Today, the United States is a net exporter o rened oil
products, as reneries along the Gul Coast and elsewhere
support not just domestic needs or gasoline, diesel uel and
other products, but also make these products available to
export elsewhere. The U.S. also imports crude and products
rom a host o countries around the world; this diversity
strengthens U.S. energy choices and helps avoid the impact
o supply disruptions.
The single biggest source o net U.S. crude oil and product
imports is Canada. The trading relationship betweenthe United States and Canada continues to benet both
economies. Canadas oil production is projected to double
rom 2010 to 2040, in large part because o production
rom the vast oil sands resources in western Canada. Rising
Canadian production coupled with growth in U.S. oil
production will not only reduce the need or imports into
North America, but also present an opportunity or both
countries to urther strengthen their relationship and create
jobs and economic value.
Even as North America approaches a time when it producesmore energy than it consumes, the region will continue
to beneit rom access to the global energy market. The
value o ree trade whether imports or exports is
a undamental principle o modern economics, and is
critical to U.S. energy security, economic growth and
competitiveness in the global marketplace.
The Outlook or Energy: A View to 2040 19
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Rounding of data in the Outlookmay result in slight differences between totals and the sum of individual components.
Energy Demand (Quadriion BTUs Average Annua Change % Change
uness otherwise indicated) 2010- 2025- 2010- 2010- 2025- 2010- Share o Tota
Regions 1990 2000 2010 2025 2040 2025 2040 2040 2025 2040 2040 2010 2025 2040
UNITED STATES
Primary 81 96 94 94 89 0.0% -0.4% -0.2% 0% -5% -6% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 35 40 38 35 31 -0.5% -0.9% -0.7% -7% -13% -19% 40% 38% 35%
Gas 17 22 22 27 28 1.3% 0.3% 0.8% 21% 5% 27% 23% 28% 32%
Coal 18 22 20 13 6 -2.6% -4.7% -3.7% -33% -52% -67% 21% 14% 7%
Nuclear 6 8 9 10 13 1.1% 1.5% 1.3% 17% 25% 46% 9% 11% 14%
Biomass/Waste 2 3 3 3 3 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 9% 0% 9% 3% 3% 3%Hydro 1 1 1 1 1 2.0% 0.3% 1.2% 34% 5% 41% 1% 1% 1%
Other Renewables 1 1 2 4 7 5.3% 3.0% 4.2% 118% 57% 242% 2% 4% 7%
End-Use Demand (incuding eectricity)
Total End-Use 61 72 70 71 68 0.1% -0.3% -0.1% 1% -5% -3% 100% 100% 100%
Residential/C ommercial 15 18 19 20 20 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 3% 0% 3% 27% 28% 29%
Transportation 22 27 27 26 25 -0. 2% -0.5% -0.3% -3% -7% -10% 39% 37% 36%
Industrial 24 27 24 25 24 0.3% -0.4% 0.0% 5% -6% -1% 34% 35% 35%
Memo: Electricit y Demand 9 12 13 16 17 1.1% 0.7% 0.9% 19% 11% 31% 19% 22% 26%
Eectricity Generation Fue 29 37 38 39 39 0.2% -0.1% 0.1% 4% -1% 3% 40% 41% 44%
CO2 Emissions, Biion Tons 4.9 5.7 5.5 5.0 4.0 -0.7% -1.4% -1.1% -10% -19% -27%
NORTH AMERICA
Primary 95 114 113 116 112 0.2% -0.3% 0.0% 3% -4% -1% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 42 49 47 45 40 -0.3% -0.7% -0.5% -4% -10% -14% 42% 39% 36%
Gas 21 26 27 34 36 1.6% 0.4% 1.0% 26% 6% 34% 24% 29% 32%
Coal 20 23 21 14 7 -2.6% -4.7% -3.6% -32% -51% -67% 19% 12% 6%
Nuclear 7 9 10 12 14 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 20% 21% 45% 9% 10% 13%Biomass/Waste 3 4 3 4 3 0.5% -0.3% 0.1% 7% -4% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Hydro 2 2 2 3 3 1.3% 0.3% 0.8% 21% 4% 27% 2% 2% 3%
Other Renewables 1 1 2 5 8 5.3% 3.1% 4.2% 118% 59% 247% 2% 4% 7%
End-Use Demand (incuding eectricity)
Total End-Use 73 86 86 90 88 0.3% -0.2% 0.1% 5% -2% 2% 100% 100% 100%
Residential/Co mmercial 18 22 23 24 24 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 5% 0% 5% 26% 26% 27%
Transportation 25 31 32 32 31 0.0% -0.2% -0.1% 0% -3% -3% 37% 36% 35%
Industrial 30 34 31 34 33 0.6% -0.2% 0.2% 9% -3% 5% 36% 38% 38%
Memo: Electricit y Demand 11 15 16 19 21 1.3% 0.7% 1.0% 21% 11% 34% 18% 21% 24%
Eectricity Generation Fue 33 42 43 46 46 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 6% 0% 6% 38% 39% 41%
CO2 Emissions, Biion Tons 5.6 6.6 6.4 6.0 5.1 -0.4% -1.2% -0.8% -6% -16% -21%
WORLD
Primary 360 416 522 654 705 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 25% 8% 35% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 137 158 178 208 223 1.1% 0.5% 0.8% 17% 7% 26% 34% 32% 32%
Gas 72 89 115 160 189 2.2% 1.1% 1.7% 39% 18% 65% 22% 24% 27%
Coal 86 90 134 156 131 1.0% -1.2% -0.1% 17% -16% -2% 26% 24% 19%Nuclear 21 27 29 41 59 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 42% 45% 106% 5% 6% 8%
Biomass/Waste 36 41 49 55 55 0.8% 0.0% 0.4% 13% 0% 14% 9% 8% 8%
Hydro 7 9 12 16 19 2.3% 1.1% 1.7% 40% 18% 66% 2% 2% 3%
Other Renewables 1 3 7 18 29 6.4% 3.3% 4.8% 152% 63% 311% 1% 3% 4%
End-Use Demand (incuding eectricity)
Total End-Use 290 327 404 501 540 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 24% 8% 34% 100% 100% 100%
Residential/Co mmercial 87 98 116 138 148 1.2% 0.5% 0.8% 19% 7% 28% 29% 28% 27%
Transportation 65 81 99 124 141 1.5% 0.9% 1.2% 25% 14% 43% 24% 25% 26%
Industrial 138 149 189 240 250 1.6% 0.3% 0.9% 27% 4% 32% 47% 48% 46%
Memo: Electricit y Demand 35 45 63 94 117 2.7% 1.5% 2.1% 50% 24% 87% 15% 19% 22%
Eectricity Generation Fue 118 144 192 258 292 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% 34% 13% 52% 37% 39% 41%
CO2 Emissions, Biion Tons 21.3 23.6 30.5 36.7 36.3 1.2% -0.1% 0.6% 20% -1% 19%
Data table and glossary
GossaryExxonMobils Outlook for Energycontains global projections through 2040.
In the Outlook, we reer to standard units or the measurement o energy:
Biions o cubic eet per day (BCFD). This is used to measure volumes
o natural gas. One billion cubic eet per day o natural gas can heat
approximately 5 million homes in the U.S. or one year. Six billion cubic eet per
day o natural gas is equivalent to about 1 million oil-equivalent barrels per day.
BTU. British thermal unit. A BTU is a standard unit o energy that can be
used to measure any type o energy source. It takes approximately 400,000
BTUs per day to run the average North American household. (Quad reers to
quadrillion BTUs.)
Watt. A unit o electrical power, equal to one joule per second. A 1-gigawatt
power plant can meet the electricity demand o more than 500,000 homes
in the U.S. (Kilowatt (KW) = 1,000 watts; Gigawatt (GW) = 1,000,000,000
watts; Terawatt (TW) = 1012 watts). Three hundred terawatt hours is
equivalent to about 1 quadrillion BTUs (Quad).
Miions o oi-equivaent barres per day (MBDOE). This term provides
a standardized unit o measure or dierent types o energy sources (oil,
gas, coal, etc.) based on energy content relative to a typical barrel o
oil. One million oil-equivalent barrels per day is enough energy to uel
about 5 percent o the vehicles on the worlds roads today.
20 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
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The Outlook for Energyincludes Exxon Mobil Corporations internal estimates and
forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data
and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including
the International Energy Agency. This report includes forward looking statements. Actual
future conditions and results (including economic conditions, energy demand, energy
supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic
regions) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new
supply source, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein
and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our
website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without
the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
7/30/2019 Energy Viewto 2040_Exon
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