Professor H. J. Schellnhuber CBEPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Joint International ConferenceKarlsruhe, 14 Oct 2009
Energy Supplyand Environmental Effects
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1850 1900 1950 2000
Prim
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Ener
gy (E
J)
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Renewable
NuclearMicrochip
Steam motor
Gasolinetube
Commercial Nuclear
Television
aviation
engine
engineElectric
Vacuum
energy
World Primary Energy
Where Do the Emissions Come from?
1900 2000 2100
Glo
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Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges forSurface Warming
(Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)
Cooling Effect of Aerosols
Dangerous Warming Commitment
(Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)
„Mass loss on Himalayan glacier endangerswater resources“ (Kehrwald et al. 2008 Geophys Res Lett)
Accelerated Greenland Melt-Down
Box 1 Synthesis Report (Steffen and Huff 2009)
Melt of Greenland ice sheet contributes ~0.5 mm year-1 to total global meansea level rise of 3.1 mm year-1.
Nature, 24 Sep 2009
(Tarnocai et al. 2009 Global Biogeochemical Cycles)
Carbon Stored in Permafrost SoilsEstimates Corrected Upwards
The new estimate of frozen carbon stored in permafrost soils of the circumpolar region is over 1.5 trillion tons, about twice as much carbon as contained in the atmosphere.
Interdependency Between Tipping Points
(Kriegler et al. 2009 PNAS)
1. Washington R et al. Dust as a tipping element: The Bodélé Depression2. Malhi Y et al. Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change
induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest3. Levermann A et al. Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions4. Latif M et al. El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming5. Notz D The big melt: Is the loss of ice sheets and Arctic sea ice unstoppable? 6. Riebesell U et al. Sensitivity of marine carbon fluxes to ocean change7. Archer D et al. Ocean methane hydrates as a slow tipping point in the global
carbon cycle8. Hofmann M et al. On the stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation9. Molina M et al. Reducing abrupt climate change risk using Montreal Protocal
and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions
PNAS Special Feature on Tipping Elements, December 2009
Editor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
TAR (2001) Reasons For Concern Updated Reasons For Concern
EU 2°C-Guardrail
Source: Synthesis Report (Smith et al. 2009 PNAS)
Updated Reasons for Concern
G8 and Emerging Economies Agree on 2°C Long-term Target
[ ]
Meinshausen et al. 2009aAllen et al. 2009
The probability of exceeding 2°C warming vs. CO2emitted in the first half of the 21st
century
Top•probabilities of exceeding 2°C of individual scenarios for illustrative default (small dots) and smoothed probabilities for all climate sensitivity distributions (numbered lines). •dashed line: proportion of carbon cycle model emulations exceeding 2°C•coloured areas: ranges of probabilities
Bottom•total CO2 emissions emitted 2000 - 2006 (grey area) • potential emissions from burning available fossil fuel reserves and from landuse
ti iti 2006 2049
„[…] the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions is approximatelyindependent of both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and its rate of change […].
The world‘s CO2 budget
Exemplary emission pathways in order to remain within a budget of 750 Gt between 2010 and 2050. At this level, there is a 67% probability of staying below a warming of 2 °C.
∫=2
1
)()(T
Tglobglob dttEpC
)()()()(
2
1 Mglob
Mnatglob
T
Tnatnat TM
TMpCdttEC == ∫
“World Formula” for Climate Policy
Total global CO2 budget in period[T1,T2] that keeps global warmingbelow 2°C with probability p
Integral over global profile of CO2 emissions
National CO2budget in [T1,T2]
Integral overnational emissionprofile
Fraction of global CO2 budgetas defined by ratio of national population Mnat to worldpopulation Mglob at time TM
“World Formula“ for Climate PolicyIllustration
Russia Germany
Remaining EuropeNigeria
Remaining Africa
United States Brazil
Mexico Remaining America
China
India
Indonesia Pakistan
Bangladesh Japan
Philippines
Vietnam
Remaining Asia
Australia/OceaniaOther
Share in world populationGlobal carbon budget National carbon budget
Inter-Temporal FlexibilityNational emission profiles respecting national CO2 budgets:
Scenario 2: Future responsibility approachT1 = 2010, T2 = 2050, TM = 2010, p = 2/3
CO2 emissions in 2008 (light green) and permissible average annual budgets (dark green) according to the WBGU approach for selected countries.
Examples of theoretical emission trajectories
Examples of equal per-capita emissions of selected countries for 2010 - 2050, without emissions trading. Trajectories start from current emission levels.
CO2 emissions by country
Per-capita CO2 emissions in 2005, differentiated by emission levels and country.
Examples of Per-Capita Emissions Paths of CO2 forThree Groups of Countries without Emissions Trading
Examples of Per-Capita Emissions Paths of CO2 forThree Groups of Countries with Emissions Trading
Source: WBGU Special Report 2009
Power sector capacity additions in the 450 Policy Scenario Power sector capacity additions in the 450 Policy Scenario --each year from 2012each year from 2012--2030.2030.
In the 450 Policy Scenario, all new generating capacity built afIn the 450 Policy Scenario, all new generating capacity built after 2012 is ter 2012 is ““carboncarbon--freefree”” –– and 15% of existing capacity is retired early.and 15% of existing capacity is retired early.
0 20 40 60
Solar and other renewables
Wind
Biomass and waste
Hydropower
Nuclear
Gas CCS
Coal CCS
GW
14 CCS coal14 CCS coal--fired plants (800 MW each)fired plants (800 MW each)
17 nuclear plants (1000 MW)17 nuclear plants (1000 MW)
8 CCS gas8 CCS gas--fired plants (500 MW)fired plants (500 MW)
2 Three Gorges dams2 Three Gorges dams
300 CHP plants (40 MW)300 CHP plants (40 MW)
16000 turbines (3 MW) 16000 turbines (3 MW)
© OECD/IEA - 2008
The Supply-side of Global Warming
Cumulative historic carbon consumption (1750-2004), estimated carbon stocks in the ground, and estimated future consumption (2005-2100) for business-as-usual (BAU) and ambitious 400-ppm-CO2-eq. scenario.
Source: Kalkuhl, Edenhofer and Lessmann 2009
13210655377139
2581581
154111154198
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558
5616
2000
0
2000C
arbo
n st
ocks
(GtC
)
Conventional reserves Unconventional reserves Conventional resourcesUnconventional resources Cumulative historic use Projected use (400ppm)Coal+CCS (400ppm) Biomass+CCS (400ppm) Additional projected use (BAU)
I n
t h e
g
r o
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d I n
t h
e
a t
m o
s p
h e
r e
11372
Gas Oil Coal Biomass + CCS
The Great Transformation
Prim
ary
Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n[E
J]
CO2emissions
Negative CO2emissions
Based on IEA Data (1971-2005) and REMIND-R resultsfor 450ppm-eq (ADAM); Graphic by Steckel/Knopf (PIK)
REMIND-R, ADAM 450ppm-eq, 4/6/2009, Steckel/Knopf
35 38250
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-100
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Abatement cost€ per tCO2e
Note: The curve presents an estimate of the maximum potential of all technical GHG abatement measures below €60 per tCO2e if each lever was pursued aggressively. It is not a forecast of what role different abatement measures and technologies will play.
Source: Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0
Exhibit 3.0.1
Lighting – switch incandescent to LED (residential)
Cropland nutrient management
Tillage and residue mgmt
1st generation biofuels
Clinker substitution by fly ashElectricity from landfill gas
Small hydroReduced slash and burn agriculture conversion
Reduced pastureland conversionGrassland management
Organic soil restoration
Pastureland afforestationNuclear
Degraded forest reforestationReduced intensive
agriculture conversion
Coal CCS new buildIron and steel CCS new build
Motor systems efficiency
Rice management
Cars full hybrid
Gas plant CCS retrofit
Solar PV
Waste recycling
High penetration wind
Low penetration wind
Residential electronics
Residential appliances
Retrofit residential HVAC
Insulation retrofit (commercial)
Power plant biomass co-firing
Geothermal
Coal CCS retrofit
Degraded land restoration
Abatement potentialGtCO2e per year
Solar CSPBuilding efficiency
new build
2nd generation biofuels
Efficiency improvements other industry
Insulation retrofit (residential)
Cars plug-in hybrid
Global GHG abatement cost curve beyond business-as-usual – 2030
Plus Energy House
•Möglichkeiten im Neubau ausschöpfen:Technologien sinnvoll koppeln, Technologien weiterentwickeln
Terrestrial Heat
Power HeatCoupling
CoolingSystem
Tempering of Building Components
Sun Protection
Storage
Source: REHAU AG + Co.
Solarthermics &Photovoltaic
On the Road to theAll-Electric Vehicle
e.g., Chevy Volt – launch targeted 2010
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) The All-ElectricVehicle Infrastructure
Battery exchange stations(> 100 mile driving range)
Charging points
AtmosphericCarbon Extraction!
Wildcard # 1
Historical Energy R & D Trends
The R&D effort was more centralized and concentrated, including a significant focus on nuclear technologies
R&D Spending: IEA Countries
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$ bn
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100$/bbl
Energy Efficiency Fossil Fuels RenewablesNuclear Fission & Fussion Hydrogen & Fuel Cells Other Power & StorageOther Research Oil Price (Right)
Source: IEA
History of US Federal Government R&DHistory of US Federal Government R&D
JFK ApolloProgram
Carter EnergyProgram
Reagan “Star Wars” Program
Homeland Security
MILESTONES of the Great TransformationAn effective and just global agreement on climate change
A low carbon infrastructure
Forest protection, conservation and restoration
„[…] we should confine the temperature rise to 2°C to avoid unmanageable climaterisks. This can only be achieved
• with a peak of global emissions of all greenhouse gases by 2015
• at least a 50% emission reduction by 2050 on a 1990 baseline. […] developedcountries have to aim for a 25-40% reduction by 2020.
[…] a total carbon budget […] should be accepted as the base for measuring theeffectiveness of short-term (2020) and long-term (2050) targets“
Issued in London, 9 July 1955
Bertrand Russell and Albert Einstein
The Russell-Einstein Manifesto
“Many warnings have been uttered by eminent men of science […] We have not yet found that the views of
experts on this question depend in any degree upon their politics or prejudices. They depend only […] upon the extent of the particular expert's knowledge. We have
found that the men who know most are the most gloomy.”
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