Education and the ‘Baby Boom’ in Northern Ireland
Patrick McGregor Patricia McKee
NILS022: “Predicting Short Run Changes in Fertility in Northern Ireland”
a project funded by
The authors are grateful to the NILS teams at NISRA for their assistance
Attesting to the Potential of the NILS
NILSRF 11 March 2011
2
Education and the ‘baby boom’ in Northern Ireland
• Overview• Education and fertility• The NILS• The data• The statistical model• Results• Conclusion
3
Total Births
Age Specific Fertility Rates
Fertility in Northern Ireland
0
50
100
150
200
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Ag
e-sp
ecif
ic f
erti
lity
rate
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Year
Bir
ths
re
gis
tere
d
Education and fertility 4
Education and fertility
Static economic analysis
Children assumed to be normal ‘goods’ and the decline in fertility with income explained by child ‘quality’: the income elasticity of quality (+ve) being greater than the income elasticity of quantity (-ve).
The home production framework allows the cost of children to be expressed as a function of the parents’ wages and their respective shares in the costs of producing child quality
Education and fertility 5
Dynamic economic analysis The ‘user cost’ of a child now is a function of a
sequence of prices such as the female wage rate
The optimal profile of a woman’s stock of human capital will be jointly determined with the timing of the births of her children.
Any empirical analysis should permit the demographic profile to vary with educational attainment
The data 6
Level 0: No qualifications
Level 1: GCSE grade D-G; 1-4 CSEs grade 1;1-4 ‘O’ level passes; NVQ level 1
Level 2: 5+ CSEs grade 1; 5+ GCSEs grade A-C;5+ ‘O’ level passes; NVQ level 2
Level 3: 2+ ‘A’ levels; 4+ AS levels; NVQ level 3 or GNVQ Advanced
Level 4: First degree; NVQ level 4; HNC ; HND
Level 5: Higher degree; NVQ level 5 Source: 2001 Census
% Women by Education Level in Year they were 24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
%
Levels 0 and 1 Levels 2 and 3 Levels 4 and 5
The data 7
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Gro
ss
We
ek
ly p
ay
(£
)
63.0
64.0
65.0
66.0
67.0
68.0
Act
ivit
y R
ate
Q1 median Q3 Activity Rate
Women in the Labour Market
Source: DETINI
The NILS 8
The NILS
• The NILS potential mothers: those women with health card registrations, aged 16-44 years and whose DOB is one of the 104 in the systematic sample
• Registrations downloaded biannually and constitute potential panel members
• Details of any birth to a NILS mother are forwarded by the GRO to the NILS
• 2001 Census: An attempt is made to link the Census details of all NILS mothers
The data 9
Sources of Information available for the NILS
Fertility Panel
101
Census 91
4,653
7,019
Census 01
GRO
BSO
61,263
24,041
32,960
530
26,710
The data 10
Sources of Parity in the Fertility Panel
Parity from Freq. PercentCensus - offspring 116,327 74.0GRO births 10,141 6.591 census 6,432 4.1Count births 97-01 178 0.1Census + n of births 158 0.1Missing 24,041 15.3
Total Women 157,277 100.0
The data 11
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
20 25 30 35 40 45
c58t62
c63t67
c68t72
c73t77
c78t82
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
20 25 30 35 40 45
c58t62h
c63t67h
c68t72h
c73t77h
c78t82h
c58t62m
c63t67m
c68t72m
c73t77m
c78t82m
c58t62l
c63t67l
c68t72l
c73t77l
c78t82l
L01
L45L23
Parity by Age and Education for the Fertility Panel
The Statistical Model 12
The Logit Model
iiiii
iiiiii
NSINTERACTIOEDUCATIONLOCALITYRELIGION
COHORTPERIODDURATIONPARITYAGEB
6876
543210*
0*0
0*1
ii
ii
BifB
BifB
Variables AGE to COHORT are interacted with EDUCATION to allow demographic profile to vary with educational attainment
Model estimated 2001 – 2007 for women aged 24 to 44 years old
PERIOD dummies take account of economic fluctuations
COHORT dummies take account of tempo and quantum changes
Results 13
RESULTS
variable All L01 L45
Age Parity Par01
Duration Period
Cohort C83t87
Locality Not included Not included
Religion Not included Not included
Education L01, PL45 Not included Not included
Constant
Results 14
Contibution of change in fertility
-0.16
-0.14
-0.12
-0.10
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0.00
0.02
02 03 04 05 06 07
births level 0/1 level 2/3 level 4/5
Contribution of change in number of women
-0.16
-0.14
-0.12
-0.10
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0.00
0.02
02 03 04 05 06 07
births level 0/1 level 2/3 level 4/5
The Decomposition of the Change in Births 2001/2 to 2006/7 for the 1957-1977 Cohort
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