Session Description

• Impact of shifting senior living models in response to economic conditions, market behaviors, older adults’ desires and other factors

• Quantifying and understanding the scope of a community’s potential market and competition

• Independent Living: Largely CCRCs, Active Adult or IL/AL rental communities

• Assisted Living: Part Of A Campus Or Stand-Alone

• Congregate Care: Assisted Living-Like Units, Assisted Living Light Services (generally three meals daily)

• Memory Care Assisted Living

• Nursing Homes

HISTORICAL

ALL MUST BE ACCOUNTED FOR

EMERGINGStay at Home

Trend

EMERGINGStay at Home Trend

• Older Adults Staying at Home Longer While the Younger Work Force is Declining

– Increasing home care utilization» See Seniors Helping Seniors

EMERGINGStay at Home Trend

– Technology to enable/support living at home » See Robear

EMERGINGNew

Independent Living Models

EMERGINGNew Independent Living Models

• Age Restricted, Full Apartments With Minimal Support or Services

• Provides social engagement

• Adds informal support

• Reduces maintenance» See Affinity Living Communities

EMERGINGNew Independent Living Models

• Age Restricted, Service Assistance Coordination, Importing External Services

• Consumer demand at all price points» See Senior Housing Assistance Group

EMERGINGNew AssistedLiving Models

EMERGINGNew Assisted Living Models

• Much higher level of care being provided• More memory care being added

• Crossing over into previous SNF care

CHANGING IMPACT OF EXISTING PRODUCT OPTIONS

BOARD AND CARE HOMES

• Generally small homes serving 6 or fewer people

• Increasingly developing memory care programs: – Competitive services and pricing

– Families like price points and smaller setting where elders are closer to staff

• Frequently identified by providers as growing competition

Significant additional data collection to determine the program and price points:

Adds time and costs to studies

SORTING THE MARKETS Historical

• Independent Living: – Units That Include a Full Kitchen, Individual and Lockable

Entrance

– Full Kitchen: Includes Sink, Cooktop and Oven

– Distinguishable From A Kitchenette By The Presence Of An Oven

– Those Living In This Type Of Unit Are Counted As Households

– Services Were Generally Minimal: People Moved When They Needed More “Care”

Shifting Delivery

SHIFTING DELIVERY

LINES BETWEEN RESIDENTS IN IL ARE BLURRING

• Independent Living

– Communities of All Types Are Providing More Home Care & Services to Non-Residents

• Response To Market Demand

– Stand Alone IL: Increased Assistance With Service Coordination To Access Outside Home Care

SHIFT FROM COUNTING UNITS TO QUANTIFYING THOSE UTILIZING SERVICES

Shift from counting unitsto quantifying service utilization.

SHIFTING DELIVERY

ASSISTED LIVING – LEVELS OF CARE

• Base level often labeled “independent”

CONGREGATE CARE

• Not licensed Assisted Living, but it does include some services (meals, housekeeping)

So What Level of Need/Care Do These Represent?

How is the market quantified?Utilization of ADL’s and IADLs

Decisions about HOW MANY to apply.

IMPACT OF CONGREGATE

• Usually three meals daily, housekeeping

• Units do not have kitchens, often kitchenettes

• Often advertised as independent living

• Are they “Assisted Living Light?”

– Results in lowering the number of ADLs applied to data to estimate penetration rates

Varying Degrees Of Need For Assisted Living and Change Over Time

Why the Uncertainty?

WHY DO STUDIES WITH THE UNCERTAINTY?

• More Important Than Ever To Understand The Markets

– Increased Competition

– Growing Options In The Market Place

– Increased Availability Closer To Home: Shifting Market Areas?

– How Does Your Product Compare?

KEY ELEMENTS TO ACHIEVING A VALUABLE OUTCOME

• Careful Delineation Of Market Area

• Understand The Methodology: No Black Box

• Understand The Data Being Applied

• Critical Eye

www.GSIresearch.com206-826-2140

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