Domestic sources of Japanese foreign policy: 5th Annual Crawford PhD Conference: Big Data, Big Opportunity Wednesday, 19 November 2014
By Ben Ascione [email protected]
1
Puzzle
• What are the key determinants of Japanese foreign policy?
– Exogenous determinants: responding to threats emanating from the external security environment
– Endogenous determinants: competition among domestic political actors
• Is right-wing nationalist influence on Japanese foreign policy increasing?
2
Background 1 Birth of the Yoshida Doctrine
• The US-Japan alliance – Japan to rely on the United States for its military
security
– US to control the pace and character of Japanese rearmament
• Light Rearmament of Japan – Article 9 Peace Clause of the Japanese Constitution
– Strict legal regime to ensure civilian control of the SDF
• Economic reconstruction – Customary defence spending limit of 1 per cent of
GDP 3
Background 2 Whither the Yoshida Doctrine?
• Post-Cold War challenges – Rise of China
– North Korea nuclear weapons and abduction issue
• Incremental loosening of SDF restrictions – UN Peacekeeping Operations Law (1992)
– SDF Dispatches to Indian Ocean (Afghanistan) and Iraq
– MSDF dispatch to the Gulf of Aden under the Anti-Piracy Measures Law (2009)
– Cabinet decision to reinterpret Article 9 (2014)
4
Literature Review • Realist argument: Foreign policy driven by external
threats (China and North Korea).
• Defensive Realist (Midford, 2011) selective use of force for ‘individual self-defence’ and ‘humanitarian & disaster relief’ missions only.
• Constructivism and cultures of antimilitarism (Berger, 1998; Katzenstein, 1996 & 2008) deep distrust of the military as an institution rooted in collective Japanese memories of 1930s militarism and the Pacific War
• Goldilocks consensus (Samuels, 2007). Finding the middle ground and getting Japan’s military posture ‘just right’. Not too far or close to the US and not too small or big SDF.
5
Goldilocks Consensus Battlelines
Embrace US Distance from US
More active military
Normal nationalists Neo-autonomists
Less active military Middle-power
internationalists Pacifists
6
Right-wing nationalism hindering the search for a stable middle ground
• Common objectives of right wing-nationalists
– Overcoming ‘irresponsible pacifism’
– Removing undue humiliation
– Overcoming the selfish egocentrism of postwar Japanese democracy
7
Who are the right-wing nationalists?
• Politicians
– Rightist factions of the Liberal Democratic Party
– Rightist opposition political parties such as the Japan Restoration Party
– Cross parliamentary study groups
• Japan Rebirth, Shinseiren, MPs for Worshipping at Yasukuni Shrine
• Political lobby groups
– Shintoists, ultra-nationalists, historical revisionists
8
Case Studies
• Post-Cold War SDF governance structures
• North Korea policy
• China policy (Senkaku/Diaoyu Island dispute)
9
SDF & Article 9 Opinion Polling
10
Japanese and Chinese Impressions of One Another
11 Data Source: The 10th Japan-China Public Opinion Poll by Genron NPO
Japanese Issues of Concern Regarding North Korea
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
2000/10 2002/10 2003/10 2004/10 2005/10 2006/10 2007/10 2008/10 2009/10 2010/10 2011/10
Abductions of Japanese Nuclear Problem
Missile Problem Defectors Problem
Political System North-South Problem
Japan-DPRK Diplomatic Normalization Negotiations Other
Nothing Particular Don't know
Data Source: Government of Japan, Cabinet Office, “Opinion Polls on Foreign Policy". Tabulated by author. 12
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