Doctors and Scientists for Sustainability and Social Justice (D3SJ)
09 June 2010
Wally Wight
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO)
Peak Oil Discoverer
M. King Hubbert 1903-1989 Shell Oil Geologist / Petroleum
Scientist
Highly qualified
Intellectually courageous
In 1954 he predicted that U.S. oil
would peak about 1970
Universally criticised at the time
After 1970 he became highly
respected
In 1984 Hubbert predicted world peak
oil in the early 2000s
Mid point
2nd half
Top of the curve
1st half
PEAK OIL: When you plot the production of an aggregate of
oil fields over time you get roughly a bell curve
USA Oil Peaked in 1970http://www.oilcrisis.com/de/lecture.html
The Peak Oil Phenomena
The Globe is at (or near) the peak of the “Hubbard Curve”
Depends on the fraction of oil in the definition
It’s all downhill from here!
Risks of Unconventional Oil
Actual 1999 BP advertisement
When is (or was) Peak Oil?
Global discovery peaked in 1964
Global production peak 2005 - 2015
(Depends on the kind of oil. The exact date is less important - the fact is that it is real!)
USA production peaked in 1971
Canada peaked in 1973
Australia peaked in 2000
Turner Valley Oilfield, Alberta (scene of my childhood), peaked in 1940
Case Study: Turner Where?
Turner Valley Oil-field, Alberta, Canada
Area of 30x3 km
50km SW of Calgary
Foothills of the majestic Rockies
Between Sheep Creek and the Highwood River
Early History Area was settled in 1850’s (64 ha. “quarters”)
Ranching, later agriculture, displaced the Stoney first nation tribe, sending them to live on reservations beyond arable land.
Black Diamond town named for coal (Alberta produced 4 million tonnes of coal per annum by 1913)
Wally brought up on N half, S31, T18, R2, West of the 5th. (no county or parish references in this grid survey).
Oil Exploration
First Alberta oil was found elsewhere in 1908
Crude geology,
Okotoks rancher noticed oil seepage 1913
Crude cable-driven “hammer” rigs,
Crews initially part-time farmers.
Dingman No. 1 14 May 1914 (a year
before Gallipoli)
Natural gas at 800 metres depth
400 000 cu M / day
Within 24 hours, promoters had formed more than 500 oil companies!
Further Development By 1921, there were 51 wells.
The change to rotary drilling in the late 20’s allowed much faster drilling and deeper wells.
Ultimately there are in excess of 500 wells.
Depths range to over 3km.
Typical well might produce 2 million cu M of “wet” gas and 600 barrels of “naptha” (unrefined well-head gasoline) per day.
Reaching a PeakUp to the late 30’s and early 40’s, Turner Valley
was the most productive field in the British Empire:
20 million Cu M gas per day was enough to satisfy New York City’s needs.
Oil production 25 000 barrels per day
Peak was reached circa 1940.
Use and Abuse: “Hell’s half-acre”
Gas had no market and “excess” was simply burned off in massive flares.
Naptha sold for 2c/litre to those that didn’t have a “tame” tap.
Community developmentA string of villages
mushroomed:
Naptha
Glen Mede (my first school)
Hartell
Little Chicago (Royalties) population 1350
Little New York (Longview)
Changing TechnologiesAfter the peak: Low gas pressure
meant pumps were required from 50’s
Drillers went to other fields in 50’s
Depleted oil levels lead to water injection from 60’s.
Automation reduced labour demand.
Community Undevelopment
Closure of schools
Relocation of amenities and services
“rural renewal” of townships Naptha
Glen Mede
Hartell
Royalties
Lessons learned Oil depletion is real,
it is already happening.
Wastage and excesses make the impacts worse.
70 years on, there is still oil to be had, but it is progressively less efficient and more expensive to extract.
We need to recognise what is happening.
We need to curb our wastage and excess early to minimise the impact.
We need to prepare and respond to the end of cheap oil.
Conventional
oil only
Current world total production is about 87.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) of which around 72
mbpd is “conventional” – the rest includes tarsand oil, deep offshore, coal-based and gas-based
synthetic oil, the biofuels, and other sources.
Confusion in projection models
Future Projections
0
20
40
60
80
100
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pro
du
cti
on
[M
b/d
]
Currently producing fields Fields yet to be developedFields yet to be found Additional EORNon-conventional Natural gas liquids
0
20
40
60
80
100
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Pro
du
cti
on
[M
b/d
]
Currently producing fields Fields yet to be developedFields yet to be found Additional EORNon-conventional Natural gas liquids
2008 2008
Different World oil production forecasts (million barrels/day)
using the same reserve data
IEA 106 Mb/day
IEA
Uppsala 75 Mb/day
Uppsala
}41%
2008 2008 20202020 20302030
IEA world oil forecast
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Pro
du
cti
on
[M
b/d
]
Currently producing fields Fields yet to be developed Fields yet to be found
Additional EOR Non-conventional Natural gas liquids
The Demand Challenge Western economies
are highly dependent on oil and on growth
Australia is among the most dependent
Industrialisation and motorisation of India and China further feeds demand
Exponential growth in demand is unsustainable
On trend, we are in trouble both locally and globally!
Supply/Demand Conundrum.While demand is
increasing,
production is
decreasing.
The red portion
represents demand
shortfall.
Result, either:
Oil prices go
through the roof, or
We experience
demand destruction
DOCUMENTARY
"THE END OF
SUBURBIA"
SHOWING IN
OTTAWA
Exxon-Mobil Report, Oct. 2004
Likely Oil Depletion “Events”Sudden critical supply interruption
Sharp price rises
Unavailability of supply (queueing, rationing)
Intermittent supply constraints
Volatile price fluctuations (exemplified by our
experience of the last couple of years), and/or
Sharp volatility of demand (ditto)
Progressive supply constraints
global increase in demand competition
Increased retention of reserves by exporters, and
associated price rises
Post-peak, how will we access
goods and services?
Peak Oil and Economic Effects
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/8/24/161535/296#comments
Oil descent protocol Demand reduction by
>2.6 % / annum (the 2006 oil depletion protocol “descent budget”) will converge with supply.
Simple, but are we prepared?
The later we start, the sharper the decline we need to match.
Oil fuels more than our cars
Freight transport (highway, light transport)
Busses (and trains beyond the electrified
lines)
Aircraft
Industrial process energy
Primary production (Agriculture, Mining,
Timber, Fishing, etc.)
Think about the food you had for lunch
(production, processing, packaging, food
miles, preparation).
And oil is not just energy
Lubricants
Bitumen
Plastics, paints and other manufacturing
inputs
Fertilisers, pesticides and other agricultural
inputs
Pharmaceuticals
Cosmetics
Is there anything in our lives not dependent
on petroleum?
Energy Phase Transitions
Wood, which was replaced by
Coal, in the 1800s, which was replaced by
Oil, in the 1900s, which must be replaced by a renewable energy source…
_________ ? in the 2000s (?) Solar?
Wind?
Geothermal?
Tidal?
Nuclear Fusion (hot or cold)? (Current nuclear fission is finite and non-renewable)
Hydrogen is a “carrier” rather than a source
Energy Phase Transitions
• Demand for wood and coal could be met as and when they were needed.
Each previous “energy phase transition”wood > coal > oil
was to a more dense energy source.
PROBLEMS WE FACE NOW
• Demand for oil will rise inexorably, as production inexorably decreases.
• Demand cannot be met.
• Energy Density: All clean, renewable energy sources are far less dense
So where are we at?“The world has never confronted a problem like this, and the failure to act on a timely basis could have debilitating impacts on the world economy.
“Risk minimization requires the implementation of mitigation measures well prior to peaking.”
Dr. Robert Hirsch, U.S. Department of Energy (2005)
Source: http://www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/The_Hirsch_Report_Proj_Cens.pdf
The impacts are not uniform
Those most vulnerable
to oil depletion are
also most vulnerable
to other stresses
The Griffith University
VAMPIRE index shows
those remote from
public transport are
vulnerable to mortgage
stress as well as to oil.
When do we have to act?If a crash program to reduce use or switch from
oil to renewable energy begins:
20 years before Peak Oil: Possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for
the forecast period.
Slight economic disruptions.
10 years before Peak Oil: Liquid fuels shortfall for roughly a decade after the
time that oil would have peaked.
Moderate economic disruptions.
0 years before Peak Oil: Significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two
decades.
Severe economic disruptions.
Worst case future scenarios:
Economic recessions?
A return of the Great Depression?
Maybe even a “Malthusian catastrophe”
(e.g., population die-off)?
There is hope:
Renewable energy is availableSolar concentrators can
be used for:
Electrical Power Generation, Hydrogen Production
100 square mile area could provide all electrical needs of USA
Another 100 sq miles could provide all of USA transportation energy
From: http://www.shec-labs.com/products.php
A Solar Concentrator:
Australia is well-positioned Gas as a temporary
transition
More sunlight than most continents
Huge geothermal resources
Some locations with reliable wind
Surrounded by ocean for tidal and wave energy.
Enough political will?
Finally, statutory supportTowards Q2 2020 Target: Cut
by one-third Queenslanders’
carbon footprint with reduced
car and electricity use
Qld Government has adopted an oil vulnerability report and is preparing a Vulnerability Strategy
FNQ and SEQ Regional Plans requires oil vulnerability to be addressed
…and professional interest
ASPO has long supported initiatives to raise
awareness (eg. locally-produced movie
“Australia Pumping Empty”)
The Planning Institute of Australia has
dedicated its December 2010 Australian Planner
issue to peak oil and plans to compile a book of
the findings.
The Environmental Engineers are planning a
sustainability conference next year on a
sustainability theme,
So the issue is gaining credence and traction…
Let’s get back to basics “Cities are an invention
to maximise exchanges
and minimise travel”
Not “an invention to
keep the cars moving”
We need to re-invent
ways to maximise
exchanges in more
energy-efficient ways
We need to connect
locally – both socially
and economically
Goods and services can be
delivered more locally Integration of land use to minimise transport
(compact, accessible and permeable mixed-use
centres to live, work and play with minimum
travel
Use public transport, walk and cycle
Buy local – reduce commodity kilometres
Substitute oil-dependent products in favour of
renewables
Get used to living with less – human exchange is
more important than commodity exchange.
Transition TownsMovement started in the UK to help
communities become more sustainable in
response to climate change and peak oil
Focus on community capacity
Focus on localisation of goods and services,
from food to local enterprise
Growing movement in South East Queensland
What can we do to facilitate the needed
transition?
Assessing vulnerability Identify the vulnerable elements of our locality/city/region
Natural resources and ecosystem services
Social relationships and dynamics
Economic sectors
Built environment and patterns of land use
Infrastructure and services
For each element, identify the processes involved People movement
Raw material and/or goods movement
Manufacture, process, assembly or service
For each process, identify the petroleum component
Calculate the value and impact of the petroleum component
Identify potential alternative resources or alternative processes
Does this look like a useful mechanism?
Bringing it home
How vulnerable is your lifestyle?
What elements are oil dependent?
Construction, operation and maintenance of your home and workplace, the fittings and furnishings
Getting to your point(s) of social and economic exchange
The tools we use (manufacture, delivery, operation)
The things we acquire (appliances, clothing, décor)
The things we consume (paper, food, water, etc)
The services we rely on (utilities, medical, etc)
What can we each change to be less vulnerable?
Crossing the generationsOur generation and those before us (however
unwittingly) have a lot to answer for…
We were supposed to hand over a better world than
the one we inherited…
But we’ve put more pressure on the environment
and on resources than ever before…
And built an economic system based on
accelerating consumption (using up half the oil)…
How can we now help the next generation to do a
better job than we did?
Thank youWally Wight
ASPO Brisbane
www.aspo_australia.org.au
Enoggera Transition
www.transitionbrisbane.org
0417 741 377
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