Doc
umen
t num
ber
Developing the Business Case for Updating the Region’s End-use Load ShapesAssessment of Findings
Presented by Curt Puckett and Lorin MolanderAugust 21, 2012
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
2
Overview of PresentationProject Objectives
Overview of End-Use Data
Findings from Stakeholder Webinars & Interviews
Updates Since 2009
National Perspectives & Resources
Preview of Business Case
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
3
Project Objectives Develop the business case for a comprehensive PNW electric end-use data
collection study
- Assessment of Regional Interest and Need- Assessment of Updates since 2009 KEMA Study- Assessment of National and Out-of-Region Resources- Assessment of the No Action Option- Analysis of Options for Proceeding with Study- Develop the Business Case for a Range of Viable Options
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
4
Section 3: Overview of End-Use Data
Background and context:• What is it?• Who uses it?• How is it used?• How is it collected or developed?• Existing data sources
NEEA RBSA metering data provided by Ecotope
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
5
Section 4: Assessment of Regional Interest and Need Objective: Lay the foundation for the business case by assessing the
current interests and needs of the region’s stakeholders.
Process: Webinars and Interviews, discussing:- How do the groups currently use end use information, - How do the they envision using the data in the future, - What are the risks associated with continuing to use the current data,- What business decisions are being made based on their analyses, and - What are their current data requirements and priorities?
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
6
Webinar Series
Webinar Date No. of Attendees Organizations RepresentedWebinar 1 April 25, 2012 33 American Electric Power
AvistaBC HydroBonneville Power AdministrationDominion Virginia PowerElectric Power Research InstituteNortheast Energy Efficiency Partnerships
Northwest Power Council/RTFPacific Gas & ElectricPacific Northwest National LabPuget Sound EnergySnohomish PUDVermont Dept. Public Service
Webinar 1 (Repeat) May 4, 2012 7 Bonneville Power AdministrationIdaho PowerNorthwest Power Council/RTF
Pacific Northwest National LabPuget Sound Energy
Webinar 2 May 10, 2012 19 AvistaBonneville Power AdministrationDominion Virginia PowerNorthwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
Northwest Power Council/RTFPacifiCorpPacific Northwest National LabSnohomish PUDSouthern Company
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
7
Summary of Stakeholder Input Via Webinars A general consensus that end-use data was important to their utility’s business
operation;
While difficult to quantify the monetary benefits associated with improved information, the utilities were making significant investments based on the information flowing through the analysis;
Concern with the existing data coverage, timeliness and relevance;
The importance and need for better time-differentiated information was increasing;
The availability of supporting information had significantly increased including the expansion of smart meter investments yielding access to time-differentiated whole facility information; and
There may be various approaches that could be used to help fill the existing data gaps.
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
8
Common Concerns About Existing Data Sources The vintage (i.e., age) of the data (1980s – early 1990s);
That appliance characteristics and usage have changed (e.g., increased efficiency standards);
There are new emerging/growing technologies (e.g., computers, plasma TVs, etc.);
ELCAP did not adequately capture small “standby” loads, which is a category of load that has grown significantly since ELCAP;
Static loads are not in the majority anymore (it’s either motors or electronics);
The existing load shape data are often “problematic” and require some conditioning, (e.g., load peaking at strange times); and
There is strong interest in measure shapes, not just end-use load shapes.
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
9
Stakeholder Interviews Based on feedback from the webinars, interview questions were developed:
- Current State;- Current or potential use(s)- Source(s) of data- Recent updates or developments of new end-use data- Concerns/issues with current sources
- Future State;- Investment(s) based on analyses using end-use information;- Specific data requirements and supporting information;- Sampling and study preferences; and- Load shape library user preferences.
17 interviews of Pacific Northwest stakeholders:- 15 organizations were represented - 38 individuals participated
- 18 were from EE - 10 were from a load forecasting/load research- 10 were from resource acquisition, smart grid, DR, transmission, regulatory
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
10
Summary of Stakeholder Input Via Interviews Current uses of load shapes and demand statistics
- Cost effectiveness analysis- Energy efficiency and demand response planning and evaluation- Savings forecasts, conservation potential, smart grid, cost of service and rates, load
forecasting, and measure savings/load impacts - Distribution planning, resource planning, and load composition modeling
Potential uses of end-use load shapes or demand statistics- Provide the effects of energy efficiency on capacity and capacity-related charges- Better differentiate economic from appliance trends- Inform data validation routines - Provide input to new rate designs - Support dynamic profiling- Help characterize “new” loads including electric vehicles
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
11
Business Decisions & Investments Based on Analyses Whether to add in demand-side or supply-side resources;
Which energy efficiency or demand response programs to pursue based on expected savings;
Where to set energy efficiency program incentive levels,
How to improve program forecasting, program targets, total budgets;
Cost-effectiveness, what investments should be made in which programs;
How to allocate within a cost of service study;
Analyze new rate designs, e.g., time-of-use rates; and
New technology investments related to smart grid.
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
12
Business Decisions & Investments Based on Analyses (cont.)
Importance of end-use load shape data to analyses overall - On a scale of 1 to 7 (with 1 being not at all important
and 7 being very important)- About half ranked the importance of end-use load
shape data to their analyses overall as a 5, 6, or 7 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Num
ber o
f Res
pons
es
Rank - Scale 1 to 7
How much investment does your organization make overall related to analyses - While difficult to quantify a direct link, the overall level of investment made, in part, based on
the end-use data was significant- Numbers in the “millions” of dollars were commonly stated- What was unclear is how better or more current information would have altered those
decisions
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
13
Importance of Accurate Load Shapes
Importance of accuracy of end-use information to overall results- Slightly more than half said that the accuracy ranked a
6 or a 7 in importance to the overall results of their analyses 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Num
ber o
f Res
pons
es
Rank - Scale 1 to 7
Risks of using potentially inaccurate load shapes - Making poor investment decisions;- Implementing energy efficiency programs that are not cost effective;- System operations (i.e., managing load) are at risk without better information;- Potentially target too much or too little conservation;- Not saving what we think we are during peak hours; and- Forecasting errors resulting in being too “long” or “short” on resources.
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
14
Results of Priority Ranking – Residential End-Uses
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Res End-use Water Heating Domestic Hot Water 1 1 1 3 5 11 5.7 Highest
Res End-use HVAC HVAC - Heating 1 1 3 1 5 11 5.5 Highest
Res End-use Other Plug Loads (Electronics) 1 1 2 2 2 3 11 4.9 Medium
Res End-use Lighting Lighting - Interior 1 1 3 1 2 3 11 4.8 Medium
Res End-use Appliances Appliances - Refrigerators 2 2 3 4 3 14 4.7 Medium
Res End-use HVAC HVAC - Cooling 2 4 2 3 11 4.6 Medium
Res End-use Appliances Appliances - Laundry 2 2 1 1 5 11 4.5 Medium
Res End-use HVAC HVAC - Fan Energy 2 1 2 1 3 2 11 4.5 Medium
Res End-use HVAC HVAC - Ventilation 2 2 3 1 3 11 4.3
Res End-use Lighting Lighting - Exterior 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 11 4.3
Res End-use HVAC HVAC - Other 2 3 2 1 1 2 11 4.0
Res End-use Appliances Appliances - Kitchen 2 2 2 2 1 2 11 3.8
Res End-use Other Pool Pump 6 1 2 9 1.6
CategoryEnd-use/MeasureClass (Number of Rankings)
Priority Ranking
N AvgGroup
PRIORITY
LOW <-------------------------------> HIGH Summary
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
15
Results of Priority Ranking – Residential Measures
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Res Measure Water Heating Heat Pump WH 2 1 2 2 4 11 5.1 High
Res Measure Water Heating High Effi ciency WH 3 1 2 3 3 12 4.7 MediumRes Measure Lighting Lighting Controls 2 1 1 3 1 3 11 4.6 Medium
Res Measure Lighting LEDs 2 1 1 2 2 2 10 4.5 Medium
Res Measure Refrig/Misc.EE Refrigerators, Clothes Washers, & Dishwashers 2 2 4 1 1 10 4.3
Res Measure Refrig/Misc. Smart Power Strips 2 3 2 2 1 10 4.3Res Measure HVAC AC or Heat Pump Tune-ups 3 2 2 1 2 10 4.1Res Measure Lighting Compact Fluorescent 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 11 4.1Res Measure HVAC Duct Sealing & Insulation 3 1 1 2 1 2 10 4.0Res Measure Water Heating LF Showerheads 3 1 1 3 1 1 10 3.8
Res Measure HVAC Attic, Basement, and Wall Insulation 3 4 1 1 1 10 3.7Res Measure Lighting HID Lighting 3 1 1 2 1 2 10 3.6
Res Measure HVACDouble Pane Low-e Argon-filled Windows 3 4 1 2 10 3.6
Res Measure HVAC Programmable Thermostats 3 1 2 1 2 1 1 11 3.5Res Measure Lighting T8 with electric ballast 3 2 1 1 1 2 10 3.4Res Measure Water Heating Temp Turndown 4 2 3 1 10 3.4Res Measure HVAC EE Room Air Conditioners 3 2 1 1 2 2 11 3.3Res Measure Water Heating Faucet Aerators 4 1 3 1 1 10 3.1Res Measure Water Heating Tank Wrap 4 1 1 4 10 3.1Res Measure HVAC Pipe Insulation 4 1 2 1 1 9 2.8Res Measure Water Heating Pipe Insulation 3 3 2 1 9 2.8Res Measure HVAC Storm Windows & Doors, 5 2 1 1 9 2.7Res Measure HVAC Caulking & Weather Stripping 5 1 3 1 10 2.5Res Measure Refrig/Misc. Waterbed covers 7 1 1 1 10 1.6Res Measure Refrig/Misc. Coil Cleaning kit 7 1 1 1 10 1.6
(Number of Rankings)
Priority Ranking
End-use/Measure
LOW <-------------------------------> HIGH Summary
Class Category Group N Avg
PRIORITY
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
16
Results of Priority Ranking – Non-Residential End-Uses
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
NonRes End-use HVAC HVAC - Cooling 3 3 5 11 5.9 HighestNonRes End-use HVAC HVAC - Heating 1 2 2 7 12 5.8 HighestNonRes End-use HVAC HVAC - Fan Energy 1 1 3 2 5 12 5.6 HighestNonRes End-use HVAC HVAC - Reheat 1 2 2 1 6 12 5.6 HighestNonRes End-use Lighting Lighting - Interior 2 2 3 6 13 5.5 HighestNonRes End-use Lighting Lighting - Controls 2 2 3 6 13 5.54 HighestNonRes End-use HVAC HVAC - Ventilation Only 1 3 2 1 5 12 5.3 Highest
NonRes End-use Process Motors - Drives 2 3 3 4 12 5.3 Highest
NonRes End-use Refrigeration Refrigeration 2 3 3 4 12 5.3 HighestNonRes End-use Other Water Heating 1 1 5 1 3 11 5.2 HighestNonRes End-use Process Pump 2 1 3 2 3 11 4.9 MediumNonRes End-use Process Industrial - Process 2 1 4 1 3 11 4.8 MediumNonRes End-use Other Compressed Air 2 1 3 3 2 11 4.8 MediumNonRes End-use Other Data Center Equipment 2 1 3 4 1 11 4.7 Medium
NonRes End-use Other Data Center Cooling 2 2 3 4 1 12 4.7 MediumNonRes End-use Lighting Lighting - Exterior 2 2 1 3 2 3 13 4.6 MediumNonRes End-use HVAC HVAC - Other 1 1 1 3 1 3 10 4.5 MediumNonRes End-use Other Food Service Equipment 2 1 2 3 2 2 12 4.4NonRes End-use Agricultural Agricultural - Pumping 1 2 1 2 4 10 4.4NonRes End-use Appliances Appliances - Laundry 2 2 3 1 3 11 4.3NonRes End-use Other Plug Load (Electronics) 2 1 3 1 2 2 11 4.3NonRes End-use Other Clean Room 5 1 2 3 1 1 13 3.3NonRes End-use Agricultural Agricultural - Process 4 2 1 1 2 10 2.5
Category Group N Avg(Number of Rankings)
PRIORITY
Priority Ranking
End-use/Measure
LOW <-------------------------------> HIGH Summary
Class
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
17
Results of Priority Ranking – Non-Residential Measures
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
NonRes Measure HVAC Heat pumps 1 1 1 5 3 11 5.5 HighestNonRes Measure HVAC Chillers 1 1 1 5 3 11 5.5 Highest
NonRes Measure HVAC Controls 2 1 4 5 12 5.5 HighestNonRes Measure HVAC Economizer 2 1 3 5 11 5.4 High
NonRes Measure Indoor Lighting Controls 2 3 2 5 12 5.3 High
NonRes Measure HVAC AC units 1 3 1 3 3 11 5.2 High
NonRes Measure Motors VSD 2 3 3 3 11 5.1 High
NonRes Measure Indoor Lighting LED (screw in and troffer) 2 1 2 2 5 12 5.1 High
NonRes Measure HVAC Demand control ventilation 2 1 2 4 3 12 5.0 HighNonRes Measure Indoor Lighting highbay T5 2 1 3 1 5 12 5.0 High
NonRes Measure Indoor LightingContinuous dimming flourescent fixtures 2 1 1 2 2 4 12 4.9 Medium
NonRes Measure Outdoor Lighting Controls 2 1 1 1 3 4 12 4.9 MediumNonRes Measure Building Envelope EMS 3 5 3 11 4.9 Medium
NonRes Measure Motors ECM 2 5 2 2 11 4.8 MediumNonRes Measure Indoor Lighting CFLs 3 2 1 1 5 12 4.8 MediumNonRes Measure Indoor Lighting Fluorescent Fixtures (T5-HE, T8-HE) 2 1 2 1 1 4 11 4.7 MediumNonRes Measure Refrigeration Effi cient Compressor Reftrofit 2 5 3 1 11 4.7 MediumNonRes Measure Refrigeration Floating Head Pressure Controls 2 1 4 2 2 11 4.7 MediumNonRes Measure Outdoor Lighting LED street and garage lighting 2 2 6 2 12 4.7 MediumNonRes Measure Indoor Lighting HID 3 2 2 1 4 12 4.6 MediumNonRes Measure Water Heating Heat pump water heater 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 11 4.5 MediumNonRes Measure Indoor Lighting ceramin metal halide flood 2 1 2 3 2 2 12 4.5 MediumNonRes Measure Refrigeration LED Lighting 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 12 4.5 MediumNonRes Measure Refrigeration Anti-sweat controls 2 1 2 2 4 1 12 4.5 MediumNonRes Measure HVAC Energy recovery ventilation 2 2 3 2 2 11 4.5 Medium
Priority Ranking
End-use/Measure
LOW <-------------------------------> HIGH Summary
PRIORITY
Class Category Group N Avg(Number of Rankings)
Note: This table does not depict entire list of measures provided to respondents, only those measures that ranked medium, high, or highest
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
18
Data Granularity Level of granularity
- One hour or 15 minute increments- Shorter increments if feasible- The need for shorter intervals was specifically due to DR
Future data granularity needs - About half said no different than now- About one-third expected to need five minutes
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
19
Sampling and Precision, Study Length Precision Requirements
- About half had specific precision requirements, same as PURPA
Single vs. Multiple End-Uses - About a third of the group said their analyses focused on multiple end-uses
Importance of Research- Case Study of Individual End-Uses
- Most ranked this low in importance - Statistical Sample of Single End-Uses
- About half valued this research higher in importance- Statistical Sample of Multiple End-Uses
- This option was ranked high by most respondents
Length of End-Use Study - At least a year - Limited timeframe would be acceptable in certain cases
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
20
Load Shape Library Load Shape Library Accessibility
- online option - FTP - searchable database
Load Shape Library Format - Almost half preferred Excel - CSV, SAS or Access.
Site versus Aggregated Data - both raw site-level data and aggregated data
Most Useful Pre-aggregated Data- Lots of answers for how to summarize data
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
21
Section 5: Regional End-Use Research Activities (Post 2009)
NEEA’s Residential Building Stock Assessment (RBSA)
BC Hydro’s Residential End-Use Metering Project (REUMP)
NorthWestern Energy’s End-Use and Load Profile Study
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
22
NEEA RBSA Metering Project This study is currently underway
Plans to meter 90% of the end-uses within about 100 homes
Metering for two years
5-minute interval energy for:- whole premise, - the sub-metered end-uses, - indoor temperature for the main living area, - outdoor temperature,
Other measurements:- 5-minute snapshots of service voltages, true power, and power factor - Gas furnace and gas water heater run-times- Lighting cycles
Region Sample
Eastern Washington 16
Idaho 14
Montana 5
Puget Sound 36
Western Oregon 30
Total 101
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
23
BC Hydro’s Residential End-Use Metering Project (REUMP) 13 employee volunteer households sub-metering about 40 end-uses per home
This project is being developed in four phases: 1. Proof of Concept (2008-2009): Test the idea of using a Zigbee wireless network to
collect interval data in a home.2. Testing (2009-2010): Equipped three homes with about 100 of these end-use recorders
(Ploggs) to test the software and data collection procedures.3. Pilot (Current): Goal of covering about 20 homes (currently 13) fully end-use metered
with about 800 devices. 4. Full Implementation (Future): If the Pilot phase is successful, implement a statistical
sample of about 300 residential homes across the Province.
BC Hydro staff indicated they are open to collaborating with other organizations in the region for the full implementation phase of the study.
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
24
NorthWestern Energy’s End-Use and Load Profile Study Completed in December 2009
Supports conservation potential assessment
Based on on-site surveys and past studies
Monthly load shapes for residential
Monthly and hourly load shapes for commercial- Hourly shapes based on modeled data
Residential Commercial
Central AC Heating
Central Heat Cooling
Cooking Oven Ventilation
Cooking Range Water Heating
Dryer Lighting
Freezer Plug Load
HVAC Aux Cooking
Heat Pump Refrigeration
Lighting Process Loads
Other Other
Plug Load
Refrigerator
Room AC
Room Heat
Water Heat
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
25
Section 6: National Perspectives Eight respondents
Not as much representation from EE as PNW interviews
Uses of the data and types of decisions being made from results were generally the same as the PNW- Magnitudes of decisions were also in $M, like the PNW
Concerns about data were similar - vintage- Specifically plug loads and new appliance trends
Risks of using inaccurate load data were still mostly associated with mis-characterizing cost effectiveness of EE (even though most were not from EE)
The priority rankings for end-uses and measures all came in generally lower in rank than for the PNW, especially for measures.
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
26
National Resources – Load Shapes NEEP Commercial Lighting Load Shape Study
- Assembled information across a wide range of EE evaluation studies
NEEP Commercial Unitary HVAC- Large sample of Unitary HVAC from Maryland to New England (n>400)
Glasgow Electric Plant Board- 30 home sample metering WH, HVAC, Refrigerator, Range, Dishwasher, Washer, and Dryer- 20 home Grid Smart appliance change-outs including HPWH and Energy Smart appliances
EPRI Load Shape Library and Customer Load Insights Interest Group
Residential End-Use Metering Program, Australia
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
27
National Resources – Data Collection Protocols NEEP Draft Protocols
International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol
ASHRAE Guideline 14
California Evaluation Protocols
Federal Energy Management Program Guidelines
ELCAP
Other Relevant Projects
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
28
Section 7: Preview of Business Case Development Considerations for an Effective Study
- End-Use and Measure Priorities- Review of Updates Since 2009 - Sample Size and Design Issues- Types of Data and Information to Collect- Transferability- Sustainability of the Approach- Data Library and User Interface
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
29
Section 8: No Action Option Challenges with No-Action Option
- Lack of current load shape data for electronics- Increasing value of demand impacts- Concerns about current load shapes reflecting current behavior (e.g., TOU rates)- Interaction and load shape dependence on occupancy
Risks with the No-Action Option- Lack of understanding what drives customer load patterns- Poor planning- Inaccurate projections- Inaccurate forecasts- Resulting in the “wrong” type of investment
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
30
Section 9: Business Case Development The Minimal Case
- meets the highest priority needs - lower range estimate in terms of cost and level of effort
The Base Case- meets a greater range of stakeholder needs- attention still given to project costs, time and resource (i.e. staff) requirements
The Premium Case - relaxes concerns about data acquisition costs and resource requirements- focusing on what the stakeholders could obtain through a multi-year end-use data collection
effort, unconstrained by costs, time and/or resource limitations
A description of each including costs and benefits will be presented in September
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
31
Residential Options A Minimal Case
- Energy shares developed from CDA- Whole facility metering by housing type- Hourly load shapes for HVAC and WH
(expand RBSA sample)- Simulation modeling by housing type
(conditioned to whole facility load)- Simulation modeling for SFR
(conditioned to RBSA end-use metering)
The Base Case (Builds on Minimal Case)- Expansion of RBSA within Region
The Premium Case (Builds on Base Case)- Extension of RBSA to multi-family- Extension of RBSA to manufactured housing- Simulation modeling by housing type conditioned to end-use metering
Tier 2: Demographic Survey Data for Large Samples
Tier 1: Billing Information Available for Full Population
Tier 3: Whole Facility Metering Data
Tier 4: On-Site Coupled with Building Simulation Modeling
Tier 5: End-Use Metering
Energy Shares
Whole Facility Profiles by
Housing Type
Building Simulation Models Calibrated to Whole Facility Load
Calibrated Models
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
32
Non-Residential Options A Minimal Case
- Whole facility metering by facility type- Large survey to secure facility information- On-site sample to secure information for
simulation modeling (selected facility types)- Simulation modeling by facility type
conditioned to whole facility load
The Base Case (Builds on Minimal Case)- Add: End-use metering for selected end-uses within selected business types- Simulation modeling for selected facility type conditioned to end-use metering
The Premium Case (Builds on Base Case)- Add: End-use metering for additional end-uses within additional business types- Simulation modeling for additional facility type conditioned to end-use metering
Whole Facility Profiles by
Business Type
Building Simulation Models Calibrated to Whole Facility Load
Tier 2: Whole Facility Metering Data
Tier 1: Billing Information Available for Full Population
Tier 3: Demographic Survey Data for Large Samples
Tier 4: On-Site Coupled with Building Simulation Modeling
RTF Meeting
August 21 2012
www.dnvkema.com
www.dnv.com
Top Related