DEVELOPING A PROJECT ROADMAP
D ANIEL A . W ORDSON
T ECHNICAL MEET ING ON TOPICAL ISSUES IN T HE DEVELOPMENT OF N UCLEAR P OWER I NFRASTRUCTURE
FEBRUARY 2 – 5, 2016; IAEA, V IENNA, AUSTRIA.
I5-TM-51750
Roadmap: Introduction, Objective & Features
Considerations in Defining the Breakdown Structure
Considerations in Setting Milestones
Tools for Roadmap Development
Official Plans Vs. Expert Opinion; Ghana’s Experience
Ghana’s Case in Developing Roadmap
Concluding Remarks & References on Nuclear Related Roadmaps
Outline
I5-TM-51750
‘Roadmap’ is a generic term meaning a detailed plan for achieving some goal
and to guide progress toward this goal. It is a synonym for ‘guide to future goals’,
‘guideline’, ‘plan’, ‘direction’, ‘instruction’, ‘map’, ‘protocol’, ‘standard’,
‘procedure’.
Several analytical tools (methods, software, etc) are available to support
technology or non-technology (policy-oriented) roadmapping providing means to
gather, explore, organize, analyze and communicate the information necessary for
decision-making process related to roadmap construction.
Roadmap:
I5-TM-51750
Planning process that is both target and policy oriented.
Target orientation to deal with:
National preference(s) for evolutionary and/or innovative power plants
Expected output and benefit of the project
Project sustainability
Policy orientation to address:
National prospects for energy mix
Existing national and international instruments and legal responsibilities
Provisions for successful project implementation (that is both nationally and internationally acceptable)
Roadmap – In Brief
I5-TM-51750
Overall objective is to develop a structured approach for making transition
from current status to satisfying a projected foreseeable need.
Features:
Structured approach
Milestones
Dynamism and Long-term perspective (that also considers evolutionary
trends of development)
Objective of Project Roadmap
I5-TM-51750
Key Considerations:
Overview of the generic approach of developing nuclear power (Clear understanding of IAEA’s Milestones Approach)
Overview of national institutions that qualify as key stakeholders who can collaborate to meet the requirements
Relevant national and international consultancies (e.g., conduction of public opinion poll after certain level of awareness/engagement; aspects of site survey; etc.)
Realistic outlining of tasks – Redesign the scope of work
document actions (e.g., National Position: Technical evaluations, stakeholder involvement and public awareness; to what extent they are to be addressed in each phase)
Defining the Breakdown Structure
I5-TM-51750
Budget
Timeframe (for specific collaborative efforts by particular
stakeholders)
Available tools (manpower, logistics, etc)
Considerations in Setting Milestones
I5-TM-51750
Visualization tools:
Trees, taxonomy, Gantt chart, mind map, concept map, etc
Analytical tools:
Decision tree, MCDA, cost-benefit analysis, portfolio optimization, etc.
Software for roadmapping (data input, analysis, reporting):
MS Project or other Gantt software (Aha!, ProductPlan, etc)
Integrated tools (Vision Strategist, VersionOne, etc)
Tools for Roadmap Development
I5-TM-51750
Official Plans Study/Expert Opinion
Credible Your desk study; no matter how
brilliant
Acknowledged by all developmental
facets (national and international)
Your opinion
Compel stakeholders commitment and
active participation
No one really cares
Appreciable confidence for investment Unlikely investment
High probability of achieving goal
even if it delays
It is your dream
Official Plans vs Study/Expert Opinion
I5-TM-51750
I5-TM-51750
IMPORTANCE OF CLEAR & OFFICIAL ROADMAP – Ghana’s Experience
Ghana’s Story 1963: Establishment of Ghana Atomic Energy Commission
1964: Energy for accelerated national development plan-Dr Kwame Nkrumah
“We have been compelled to enter the field of Atomic energy, because this already promises to yield the economical source of power since the beginning of man.
Our success in this field would enable us to solve the many sided problems which face us in all the spheres of our development in Ghana and in Africa”. – Dr Nkrumah
Feb. 1966: Revolution (Gov. invitation to Sir Cockcroft and IAEA on the Reactor Project) “the view of the IAEA was that … the advice sought was political in nature, and it must therefore remain the prerogative of the Government to take a decision.”
Nov. 1966: Cockcroft Report (to NLC); “In view of the capacity of the Volta hydroelectric project, for some twenty years to come, a Reactor is unlikely to be necessary for the purpose of producing power.”
1998, 2007: Acute national energy crisis that shut down some turbines of the Akosombo hydro-electric plant (main electricity producing plant of Ghana; roundly 1000 MW plant)
I5-TM-51750
2007: Presidential Committee to report on a feasibility study of introducing Nuclear into Country’s Energy Mix
2008: Cabinet decision to include nuclear into energy mix based on the Committee’s Report (Adjei-Bekoe’s Report 2007)
2010: Nuclear Energy included in National Energy Policy and Strategy
2012: Ghana Nuclear Power Program Organization (Ghana’s NEPIO)
2014: Establishment of Nuclear Power Centre (as Technical drive force for GNPPO)
2015 (January): IAEA Expert visit to develop a better understanding of the planning by Ghana for nuclear power infrastructure development
Key Issues of the IAEA Visit (among others included):
o Development of clear roadmap or national action plan with timelines and key deliverables
Ghana’s Story Continued
I5-TM-51750
o Ghana to focus on near-term goals of NPID o Strengthening coordination mechanisms with clear roles &
responsibilities for participating organizations /institutions
2015(March): NPC Draft of Roadmap for NPP development in Ghana. Document reviewed by IAEA in Nov 2015
2015: Nuclear Regulatory Authority Act 2015 for the establishment of an effectively independent Nuclear Regulatory Body signed
2015: Nearly all relevant International Conventions have been signed
2015(December): Restructured GNPPO
2016: Establishment of Ghana Nuclear Regulatory Authority
Ghana’s Story Continued
I5-TM-51750
Ghana’s Case: Developing Roadmap for Nuclear Power Infrastructure Development
I5-TM-51750
Discussion among key stakeholders of the program
Assigned responsibility and time
Review of: IAEA Milestone, Self Evaluation, NTDRoadmap(US DoE) documents
Brainstorming sessions - Draft roadmap with Conditions for successful development
First run cost estimate for infrastructure development
Meeting with stakeholders to discuss draft
Meeting with IAEA (Roadmap and Self evaluation guidance)
Readjustments and restructuring (where necessary)
GNPPO discussion on reviewed roadmap, near-term goals and strategy
Conclusion and Official adoption
How Ghana Developed its Roadmap (Feb – Dec., 2015)
I5-TM-51750
2015 2018 2023 2029 2045? ???
Construction of 1st NPP
Strongly, Well Motivated GNPPO (Planning, Coordination & Oversight Responsibility)
Preparation of Program
Comprehensive Studies & Report
Commissioning & Operation of 1st NPP
Project Feasibility & Development Phase N
ation
al Decisio
n
• Nuclear Power Plant mix
• Pressurised Water Reactors• Including VVERs, ALWRs, RMWRs, SCLWRs, …
• Boiling Water Reactors• Including ESBWRs, RMBWRs, ...
• Pressurised Heawy Water Reactors• CANDU6, AHWR, ...
• Fast (Breeding) Reactors
• Small Modular Reactors
• Used Fuel (interim storage) ponds
• Used Fuel Dry interim storage
• Reprocessing and refabrication/recycling plants• Size indicates anuual throughput
• Geological disposal
• Committed mass-flow
• Fractional mass-flow, i.e. Only a fraction of fuel/material type follows this path
• Optional mass-flow, i.e. Depending on technical-economic conditions
FBR
BWR
PWR
PHWRGhana’s Overall Draft Roadmap for NPP
I5-TM-51750
2015 2018 2023 2029 2045? ???
Strongly, Well Motivated GNPPO (Planning, Coordination & Oversight Responsibility)
Commissioning & Operation of 1st NPP
Natio
nal D
ecision
• Nuclear Power Plant mix
• Pressurised Water Reactors• Including VVERs, ALWRs, RMWRs, SCLWRs, …
• Boiling Water Reactors• Including ESBWRs, RMBWRs, ...
• Pressurised Heawy Water Reactors• CANDU6, AHWR, ...
• Fast (Breeding) Reactors
• Small Modular Reactors
• Used Fuel (interim storage) ponds
• Used Fuel Dry interim storage
• Reprocessing and refabrication/recycling plants• Size indicates anuual throughput
• Geological disposal
• Committed mass-flow
• Fractional mass-flow, i.e. Only a fraction of fuel/material type follows this path
• Optional mass-flow, i.e. Depending on technical-economic conditions
FBR
BWR
PWR
PHWRGhana’s Roadmap – Some Major Issues
I5-TM-51750
• Legal gap analysis • HR Gap Analysis
& Strategy • Public Awareness • RB Startup;
Competence development program
• Site Survey (Candidate Sites)
• INIR 1 • PCR
• Site Selection • EIA • Grid Enhancements • Establishment of Licensing
Procedures • Regulatory processes for
Authorizations, Inspections and Enforcements
• Designation of OO • Technology Selection &
requirements • Contract • INIR 2 etc.
Implementations
• CRR Mission
• Agreement with Vendor Program & Construction Phase
Strongly, Well Motivated GNPPO (Planning, Coordination & Oversight Responsibility)
Milestones of Ghana’s Roadmap
I5-TM-51750
Nuclear Law
Com. Operation
PCR & Nat. Decision
GNPPO Technical
Bids National EPR
Implementation Grid
Connection
Technology/ Financial
Evaluations
Construction Start
Equipment Installation
Site Preparation
Contract Neg&Sign
Operator Staff Ready
2015 2029
Regardless of the urgency of need, Roadmap should:
Be Realistic (in time, money and commitment).No ‘short-cuts’ in NPID
Have tangible goal/end
Have clear milestones
Be well communicated and understood by all stakeholders
Assign specific responsibilities to stakeholders
Be official
Newcomer Country is likely to first develop a Master Roadmap to allow specific areas to develop the details. Due diligence is key and expert review is highly recommended.
Concluding Remarks
I5-TM-51750
General
IEA Technology roadmaps , https://www.iea.org/roadmaps/
UNIDO technology foresight, http://www.unido.org/foresight.html
Institute for Manufacturing, Department of Engineering Cambridge, UK, http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/roadmapping/research/
Nuclear related roadmapping
Technology Roadmap: Nuclear Energy, 2010 edition, NEA /IEA, https://www.iea.org/media/freepublications/technologyroadmaps/nuclear_roadmap2010.pdf
Technology Roadmap: Nuclear Energy, 2015 edition, NEA /IEA, https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/TechnologyRoadmapNuclearEnergy.pdf
References on Nuclear Related Roadmaps
I5-TM-51750
Nuclear energy research and development roadmap, 2010, DOE , http://energy.gov/ne/downloads/nuclear-energy-research-and-development-roadmap
A Technology Roadmap for Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems, https://www.gen-4.org/gif/upload/docs/application/pdf/2014-03/gif-tru2014.pdf
Nuclear Energy Research and Development Roadmap: Future Pathways, 2013, https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/168043/bis-13-632-nuclear-energy-research-and-development-roadmap-future-pathway.pdf
The path to sustainable nuclear energy – basic and applied research opportunities for advanced fuel cycles, DOE, 2005, http://science.energy.gov/~/media/bes/pdf/reports/files/psne_rpt.pdf
References on Nuclear Related Roadmaps
I5-TM-51750
Others
A roadmap to deploy new nuclear power plants in the United States by 2010, Volume 1 – Summary Report; Volume II – Main Report , 2001.
The nuclear roadmap portal – a service to the nuclear energy community.
Strategic plan for light water reactor research and development, US DoE / Nuclear Power Industry, 2004.
Indian programme related to innovative nuclear reactor technology, Sinha & Kakodkar, 2002.
Nuclear fission energy roadmap, UK Energy Research Centre, 2008.
Nuclear fission energy roadmap, Howarth, Dalton Nuclear Institute, 2008.
etc
References on Nuclear Related Roadmaps
I5-TM-51750
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
I5-TM-51750
Top Related