Detainee Family Demographics:Family Social Structure is Complex
30%
48%
22%
OftenSometimesNever
66%
45%
59%
43%
5%
6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Mother
Father
Brothers
Sisters
Grandparent(s)
Other
Does the detainee make the decisions in the household?
Who else lives in your household?
Most detainees live with extended family
Majority don’t make the decisions
Do you go to your tribal leader to help solve problems?
Tribal influence is a factor
N = 1016 Transition In Assessment
55%
45%
YESNO
Detainee Family Demographics:Marriage, Children Add to Complexity and Financial Burden
Most detainees are married Most detainees live with extended family, even after marriage
Majority: 79% have Children
37%
63%
Are You Married, Yes
Are You Married, No
97%
83%
52%
31%
2%
43%
29%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Wife
Children
Mother
Father
In Laws
Brother(s)
Sister(s)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 morethan10
Number of Children
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
Ma
rrie
d D
eta
ine
e b
y N
um
be
r o
f C
hild
ren
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
50% of married detainees have
two children or fewer
25% of married detainees have five or more children
N = 1016 Transition In Assessment
Detainees are Not Prepared to Compete More than 60% of the Detainees Have not Completed High
School
60%
5%
24%
31%
18%
11%8%
2%0% 1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
No fo
rmal
sch
ooling
1-5
yea
rs
6-8
yea
rs
9-1
2 ye
ars
Vocatio
nal s
chool
Colle
ge 4
year
s
Mili
tary
sch
ool
Rel
igio
us sc
hool
College
more
than
4 y
ears
N = 1016 Transition In Assessment
Most Detainees Say they Are EmployedMajority of Detainees Work as Unskilled Labor
14% Entered Labor Market Since 2003
1%
7%
1%
11%
19%
4%
12%
4%
7%
2%
1%
2%
21%
10%
22%
3%
10%
3%
4%
1%
31%
0.1%
0.2%
24%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Unemployed
Did not work was a student
did not work was retired
Military/Police/FPS
Farmer
Shepard
worked in a store
worked in a factory
worked for a government office
Trade/Craftsman/Construction
Teacher regular school
Teacher religious school
Teacher college or university
Lawyer / Engineer / Doctor What do you do for a living now What did you do under Sadam
N = 1016 Transition In Assessment
Why do they Fight? What Are Their Motivations?
• Several Motives Explored:– Sectarian animosity– Economic motives– Religious extremism– Revenge as a motive– Attitudes toward coalition
Sectarian AttitudesSunni Support Secular Shia Allawi as “Best Leader”
Sunni Assessment of Best Leader
14
55
11
2
8
0 2 4 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Nu
mb
er
of
Resp
on
ses
N=220
Sectarian AttitudesSunni Support Intermarriage
Intermarriage common before US intervention but interviews reveal some intermarriage still takes place post 2003
Sunni Support of Daughter/Sister Marrying Shia/Sunni
Yes76%
No20%
Do Not Know4%
N=220
Majority View Both Sunni and Shi’a As Equally Good Muslims
Thinking about the Sunni/Shi’a difference, which of the following do you think is most true?
87%
13%
0.50%
Both can be equally good Muslims who will go to paradise
The (Shi’a/Sunni) are heretics who follow the wrong path and should be punished
The (Shi’a/Sunni)are heretics and God will punish them
This is a historical distinction that shouldn’t matter anymore today
N=1024
Economic Motives• Economic motives can be divided into two categories
– 1. Subsistence/survival- those who commit and/or support violent acts due to lack of viable alternative employment
– 2. Opportunistic/greed- those who commit and/or support violent acts to supplement income that can provide a viable existence
• The second category seems to be predominant• Many detainees are not totally unemployed; rather they
are underemployed or employed sporadically (e.g. day laborers)– Implicit they may have ended up in detention by
attempting to supplement their income by other means
N=220
Economic Motives (ii)• The post 2003 environment can be termed “the best of times,
the worst of times”• Detainees interviewed report exponential increase in access to
consumer good– 82% reported and increase in income
– 92% had acquired a satellite dish, 56% a cell phone, and 43% one or more vehicles; other goods acquired included DVD players, refrigerators, computers, air conditioners, etc.
– Access to cell phones and vehicles may have enhanced their utility to insurgency, DVD players (propaganda) may have attracted them to insurgency - but cause and effect very hard to establish
• At the same time, the old patriarchal system of Saddam was gone, creating a chaotic environment
• Entrepreneurs willing to engage in criminal activity can thus prosper from activities ranging from oil smuggling to arms sales
and enjoy the good life • There is a danger that the insurgency is becoming a vocation
N=220
Economic MotivesMajority Do Not Report Financial Problems; Many
Find It Difficult to Provide for Family
66%
34%
YesNo
Is this enough money to Take care of your family?
Dinars DollarsDay 126,021 $104
Month 3,155,149 $2,600Year 25,769,300 $21,300
Reported Wages
N = 1016 Transition In Assessment
Economic MotivesWeekly Income of Detainees
Income Before Detention
2%
26%
37%
20%
15%
No Income
1-49,999
50,000-99,000
100,000-200,000
>=200,000
Note: 76% of detainees reported that their weekly income was sufficient to meet the needs of their family; this closely matches the 72% that reported income of 50,000 Iraqi dinar/week or more
N=220
Religiosity
• Religious motivations seem muted among the majority of Iraqi detainees
• Even some interviewees alleged to be mid-level AQI have not expressed very strong religious feelings
• Some alleged JAM members have seemed very unreligious (heavily tattooed, enjoying alcohol)
N=220
ReligiosityMost Detainees in Sample Have Traditional/Conservative
Religious Views; Small but Powerful Minority Extreme
130
45
228
370
264
67
19 152 0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Severity Scale (0 - secularist, 10 Extremist)
Nu
mb
er
in E
ac
h C
ate
go
ry
Secularist Tradition Traditionalist/Extremist Extremist
N = 1016 Transition In Assessment
ReligiosityMosque Not Central to Most Iraqi Detainees Lives
Mosque Attendance Before DetentionDo Not Know
1%
Other1%
Special Days Only4%
Never36%
Every Week28%
Sometimes30%
Note: 70% of detainees did not attend mosque every week
N=220
ReligiosityAttitudes Towards Enforcing Religious Behavior
Reaction to Neighbors Not Fasting
Sometimes I Do Not Fast10%
Tell Them They Should Fast
19%
Other1%
Not My Concern70%
Note: 80% either sometimes did not fast themselves or felt it was a private matter
N=220
ReligiosityAttitudes Towards Women Wearing Hijab are Relaxed
More women are wearing hijab now than in some previous years, and some say they are doing it because they are afraid of being attacked if they don’t. Which of the following do you think?
5%3%
92%
Its a good development if women dress moremodestly, and it doesn’t matter why they aredoing itIts a bad development because it shows thecountry is moving backward
Its ok if women are doing it voluntarily out ofpiety, but it’s bad if they are doing it out of fear
N = 1016 Transition In Assessment
Religiosity• Most detainees do not seem religiously motivated• Minority with strong religious motivation have
disproportional influence– Extremist fall into two classes:
• Takfiri (means excommunicate)– Most extreme– Have their own interpretation of Quran– Willing to do anything, including take on Western guise (i.e. eat pork), in
order to accomplish goals– Hated by most of detainee population– Dreaded by those unlucky enough to find themselves in a Tafir
compound– Will recruit through physical threat and mind control
• AQI (Al Qaeda in Iraq)– Motivation is to wage jihad – Influence of foreign fighters in terms of numbers is minimal; AQI is Iraqi– Influence of foreigners in terms of financing and upper echelon direction
of strategy more substantial– Viewed as “foreign” by most detainees and blamed for violence against
people of Iraq– Main recruiting leverage appears to be money
Revenge as a Motive
• Revenge seems to be a relatively rare but possibly powerful motive
• Question probing ‘violence against friends/family’ (from any source) had significant response
• Forced relocation had relatively few responses• However, some mid to senior AQI leaders note
revenge-related themes (loss of business to JAM or killing of a relative by CF)
N=220
Coercion as a Motive• Like revenge, coercion hard to estimate
• In TIFs, significant evidence suggests it is a powerful motive, e.g. forced adoption of or compliance with takfiri views
• Outside TIFs, some evidence from a few interviews but still inconclusive
N=220
Attitudes toward Coalition - Positive• Most detainees expressed qualified positive
feelings towards the Coalition
• This was most clear among Sunni detainees asked about CF withdrawal; the vast majority used vivid language to describe a disaster; e.g. “the Apocalypse,” “the streets will run red”
• All felt treatment by coalition was better than treatment by Iraqis
N=220
Attitudes toward Coalition - Negative
• However, a significant fraction had friends or family who had been killed by CF, most commonly near CF convoys
• Many blame coalition for detention
• Many have or have had family members detained
N=220
61%
10%
10%
4%
15%
Coalition Iraqi Govt Neighbors Yourself Tribal enemies
Attitudes toward CoalitionDetainees hold coalition responsible
Who do you blame for your detention?
N = 1016 Transition In Assessment
Attitude Toward CoalitionInsurgency & Detention Impacts Extended Family –
57% had family member detained
27%
6%
3%
10%0%11%
43%
Brothers
Father
Son
Cousin
Grandparents
Uncles
None
Have any of your family members been detained by the Coalition?
N = 1016 Transition In Assessment
Detainees Report “Security in Iraq” as Biggest Concern
Most Difficult Issues
5 3 3
55
85
15 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Elect
ricity
Wate
r
Food
Securit
y
Emplo
ymen
t or B
usines
s
Do Not K
now
There A
re N
o Pro
blem
s
Oth
er
Nu
mb
er o
f R
esp
on
ses
N=220
Majority of Detainees Have Been Personally Affected by Fighting
Family or Friends Killed/ Injured
Yes60%
No38%
Do Not Know2%
N=220
Many Detainees Exhibit Signs of Psychological Trauma and Anxiety; Very Few Have Ideas of
Martyrdom and AggressionPsychological Assessment
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Anxiety
Psychological Trauma
Depression
Aggressive Behavior
Martyrdom
Unknown 0% 0% 0% 6% 6%
No 36% 56% 75% 88% 91%
Yes 64% 44% 25% 6% 3%
AnxietyPsychological Trauma
DepressionAggressive Behavior
Martyrdom
N = 1016 Transition In Assessment
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