Sources of Demographic Data : 1. Census2. Vital Events Registers3. Surveys4. Sample Registration System
Measures of Population Projection : By “Population projections”, we mean estimating and forecasting the populationof a country or a region for a given time.
Mathematical Methods : ●● Arithmetic Growth Method●● Geometric Growth Method●● Exponential Growth Method●● Component Projection Method
DELAY THE FIRST POSTPONE THE SECOND AND PREVENT THE THIRD
Demographic process:: Fertility, mortality, marriage, migration and social mobilityIMPORTANT FACTS:::::1)¾ th world population lives in developing country.
2) India2.4%land area but 17.56% world population, China19.96%.
3) 180 /minute population increased worldwide
4) Age pyramid --- India broad base and tapering top. Switzerland bulge at middle and narrower base
5) 1/3rd of population 15 years reproductive age potential for population growth.
6) Sex ratio:::: No. of female/ 1000 males.
7) Dependency ratio:: Young age dependency ratio—0-14 years Old age dependency ratio-- ≥ 65 years
RATING ANNUAL GROWTH RATE(%) REQUIRED YEARS FOR THE POPULATION TO DOUBLE
STATIONARY NO GROWTH --------------SLOW GROWTH <0.5 >139MODERATE GROWTH 0.5-1 (0.9 world) 139-70RAPID GROWTH 1-1.5 70-47VERY RAPID GROWTH 1.5-2 (1.8 India) 47-35
EXPLOSIVE GROWTH 2.0-2.5 35-282.5-3.0 28-233.0-3.5 23-203.5-4.0 20-18
8) Growth rate::::: CBR-CDR
9) Family size at a point of time:: total no. of child to a woman has borne at a point of time -----COMPLETED FAMILY SIZE=TFR
TWO CHILD FAMILY NORMNRR=1COUPLE PROTECTION RATE=60%
Demographic Transition : In 1929 the American demographerWarren Thompson, observed changes in birth and death ratesin industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or soand then formulated a model called “Demographic Transition”that describes population change over time.
Demographic Transition model recognizes five demographic stages:
High stationary e.g. India till 1920
Early expanding e.g. South Asia, Africa
Late expanding e.g. India , China , Singapore. Low stationary e.g. Austria, UK , Denmark, Sweden
Declining e.g. Germany, Hungary
India’s population growth during the twentieth century can be classified as follows : 1)High stationary /Pretransitional phase : 1901-1920: This period was characterized by a high birth rate and high death rate (46-49 per 1000) and growth rate was slow, close to zero.
Year 1921 year of great divide. There after growth rate steadily
2) Early expanding :::: A) Early transitional phase: 1921-1951:birth rate and death rate but BR>DR growth rate steadily ≥1 but ≤2.During this period India experienced rapid growth.
B) Mid transitional phase: 1951-2000:rapid reduction in mortality but little effect on BR…… growth rate ≥ 2 during this period. During this period India experienced explosive rapid growth.
3) Late expanding / Late transitional phase: 2001-till now…….probably up to 2045 : BR decline DR decline but BR>DR growth rate started slowing down during this period.
4) Low stationary/Post transitional phase: India is expected to enter this phase in 2045: Low BR Low DR and growth rate will be slow, close to zero.
2011 census of India
Census has been conducted in India since 1872.
The 15th Indian National census was conducted in two phases, house listing and population enumeration.
House listing phase began on April 1, 2010 and involved collection of information about all buildings. House listing Schedule contained 35 questions. Information for National Population Register was also collected in the first phase, which will be used to issue a 12-digit unique identification number to all Indians by Unique Identification Authority of India. National Population Register Household schedule contained 9 questions.
The second population enumeration phase was conducted between 9 to 28 February 2011. Population enumeration schedule contained 29 questions. 2.7 million officials visited households in about 7,000 towns and 600,000 villages, classifying the population according to gender, religion, education and occupation.
The cost of the exercise was in the region of 22bn rupees ($490m; £300m).
Census report
Provisional data from the census was released on March 31, 2011. Complete results are expected to be released in 2012
Population Total 1,210,193,422
Males 623,724,248
Females 586,469,174
Literacy Total 74.04%
Males 82.14%
Females 65.46%
Density of population
per km2 382
Sex ratio per 1000 males 940 females
Child Sex ratio(0-6 age group)
per 1000 males 914 females
Population growth—1991-200121.54% 2001-201117.64%
Literacy 2001 2011 Total 65% 74% Male 75% 82% Female 54% 65%
Sex ratio 2001 2011 T 933 940 ↓6Y 927 914
UP MOST POP.199 MSIKKIM LOWEST6,07,000THANENORTH 24 PGS POP. DISTRICT
FERTILITY(NATALITY):: ACTUAL BEARING OF CHILDREN
Age at marriage
Duration of married life
Spacing of children
Education NFHS 3 shows illiterate women TFR>1.7 times high school educated women.
Economic status
Caste and religion
Nutrition
Family planning
No. of live births during the year
Estimated mid year population1000BIRTH RATE
No. of live births during the year
Estimated mid year female population age 15-44(or 49) in the same year
1000GFR
No. of live births during the year
Estimated mid year married female population age 15-44(or 49) in the same year
1000GMFR
No. of live births during in a particular age group the year
Estimated mid year female population of the same age group
1000ASFR
No. of live births during in a particular age group the year
Estimated mid year married female population of the same age group
1000AMSFR
1000TFR
515-19
45-49ASFR
The average no. of children would be born to a woman if she experiences the same fertility pattern as the woman now in each age group through her reproductive years….
1000TMFR
515-19
45-49ASMFR
The average no. of children would be born to a married woman if she experiences the same fertility pattern as the woman now in each age group through her reproductive years….
1000GRR
515-19
45-49
ASFR FOR FEMALE LIVE BIRTH
The average no. of GIRLS would be born to a woman if she experiences the CURRENT fertility pattern through her reproductive span ASSUMING NO MORTALITY….
1000NRR
515-19
45-49
ASFR FOR FEMALE LIVE BIRTH
The average no. of GIRLS would be born to a woman if she experiences the CURRENT fertility pattern through her reproductive span ASSUMING FIXED AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY AND MORTALITY RATES….
1. CHILD WOMAN RATIO
2. PREGNANCY RATE
3. ABORTION RATE
4. MARRIAGE RATE
5. ABORTION RATIO
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