Decision Intelligence: Supercharging Machine
Learning to 1000s of new use casesDr. Lorien Pratt, Chief Scientist, Quantellia Copyright © 2014 Quantellia LLC
Question: If technology could solve one problem for you, that it doesn’t solve today, what would it be?
Question: If technology could solve one problem for you, that it doesn’t solve today, what would it be?
Answer: Massive amounts of data, machine learning, other advanced technology, but it’s not getting used for the most important decisions.
GAPMachine Learning
Analytics
Data
Decision Makers
What will be the impact of today’s decision, tomorrow?
Decision Makers
Machine Learning
Analytics
Data
Complex interdependencies, with
critical consequences
Source: Tibco Jaspersoft
From… To…
“Isn’t there a better way? I am making big decisions: is there a way to structure all this data, and to use machine learning, to get the most value out of it?”
Source: Tibco Jaspersoft
From… To…
Many new use cases
Two ways we use data
Big Decisions
DataInstrumented
Code / Sensors
DataManagement
Analytics
Presentation
DataInstrumented
Code / Sensors
DataManagement
Analytics
Presentation Demarcation between automated (computer-centric) and manual (human-centric) information processing
Gap between computer and humanbridged by Data Visualization
DataInstrumented
Code / Sensors
DataManagement
Analytics
Presentation
System Analysis
Decision
DataInstrumented
Code / Sensors
DataManagement
Analytics
Presentation Demarcation between automated (computer-centric) and manual (human-centric) information processing
Gap between computer and humanbridged by Data Visualization
What is a the relationship between data, systems, and decisions?
Decision Lever
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
External Factors
Decision Lever
Intermediates
External FactorsExternals
Intermediates
Intermediates
Goal
Each connector represents a dependency.
Goal
Goal
Big Decisions
Intervention
Impact
analysis
How can we best
deploy security to
ensure a fair
election?
How can we
maximize the value
of aid to reduce
childhood
mortality?
“FACTIVISM”Factivism
“Poor decision making can cost–
and, in an industry that invests as
much as telecoms, the total cost can
be very large indeed.”
“Our research reveals that, in
the past decade, the average
long-term return on investment
(ROI) has been just 6%—three
percentage points less than the
cost of the capital itself.”
“What is critical in today’s complex world is the ability to see over the horizon and around corners to understand the impact of today’s decisions on all of the desired outcomes.”
Adam-Bryce, LLC (919) 638-0707
“We are seeing increasing demand for a C-level executive who understands how to use data and machine learning to support business decisions.
This may end up as a role for the CIO, Chief Data Officer (CDO), or a new role may emerge: the Chief Decision Officer: who is in charge of using expertise and evidence to support the company’s most important business decisions”
A new f ie ld
DECISION
INTELLIGENCE
A new f ie ld
DECISION
INTELLIGENCE
Today
Big Data
Big
Decisions
A view of the future….
A challenge
TRADITIONAL VIEW
What will
be the
outcome?
What
decisions
can we
make?
Data, Analytics, Big
Data, Reports,
Predictive Analytics,
Spreadsheets
DECISION INTELLIGENCE VIEW
What data, analytics, reports, human
expertise, and other assets are relevant?
What outcomes
do we need or want to reach ?
What decisions will get us
there?
“…our predictions may be more prone to failure in the era of Big
Data.
As there is an exponential increase in the amount of available information, there is likewise an
exponential increase in the number of hypotheses to investigate.
For instance, the U.S. government now publishes data on about 45,000 economic statistics. If you
want to test for relationships between all combinations of two pairs of these statistics–is there a
causal relationship between the bank prime loan rate and the unemployment rate in Alabama?–
that gives you literally one billion hypotheses to test.
But the number of meaningful relationships in the data–those
that speak to causality rather than correlation and testify to how
the world really works–is orders of magnitude smaller.”
—Nate Silver
Who correctly called the outcomes of the 2012 US Presidential election in all 50 states
Elements
Need:
1) A systems model (with systems dynamics, feedback loops, etc.)
2) Machine learning
3) Information from experts for when data is missing
4) Simulation
5) Optimization
6) Crystal clear visualization
7) An agency model to add to the information model
8) Interactivity
What will be the impact of today’s decision, tomorrow?
Decision Makers
Machine Learning
Analytics
Data
A DECISION INFLUENCES A SYSTEMS MODEL, WHICH RESULTS IN OUTCOMES
Decision Lever
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
External Factors
Decision Lever
Intermediates
External FactorsExternals
Intermediates
Intermediates
Goal
Each connector represents a dependency.
Goal
Goal
The CDO’s responsibility is to fill this gap
Decision Makers
Machine Learning
Analytics
Data
Lack of consistent
service
Net Promoter
Score
Irrelevant proactive
notifications
Invest in consistent customer data
Pain of having to deal with the call
center
Invest in self service improvement via the
smartphoneHow many
people use the call center
Invest in improving the call center
Churn
Levers
Outcomes
Externals
Revenue
LoyaltyBetter proactive
resolution of issues
Customer calling behavior
Customer needsMy competitor’s
NPSCompetitor advertising
Cause Effect
Machine Learning rule, from historical data that captures this link
Lack of consistent
service
Net Promoter
Score
Irrelevant proactive
notifications
Invest in consistent customer data
Pain of having to deal with the call
center
Invest in self service improvement via the
smartphoneHow many
people use the call center
Invest in improving the call center
Churn
Levers
Outcomes
Externals
Revenue
LoyaltyBetter proactive
resolution of issues
Customer calling behavior
Customer needsMy competitor’s
NPSCompetitor advertising
“If I make this decision today, how will it affect my outcomes in the future?”
Decision Lever
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
External Factors
Decision Lever
Intermediates
External FactorsExternals
Intermediates
Intermediates
Goal
Each connector represents a dependency.
Goal
Goal
Forward modeling
Decision Lever
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
External Factors
Decision Lever
Intermediates
External FactorsExternals
Intermediates
Intermediates
Goal
Goal
Goal
Optimization
Decision Lever
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
External Factors
Decision Lever
Intermediates
External FactorsExternals
Intermediates
Intermediates
Goal
Goal
Goal
How do we maximize profit? Should we
generate our own renewable energy? If so,
when is the best time to do so?
Tens of millions of dollars in savings potential
per year for a typical large enterprise
How do we best invest in the legal system to set a developing country on a road to
avoid future conflict?
Should we invest in buildings and books or motorcycles and paralegals?
Thousands of lives at stake
“Is my money better
spent on more
servers or more
iPads?”
“Which buildings should I
transform to cloud/VOIP first, to
maximize business benefit?
Typical – 72 homes per Node Optimal – 115 homes per Node
“Where should I place network equipment to build the next
internet, at the lowest cost and maximum value to customers?”
“Where should I place wifi hotspots in my town to provide the
best customer service and to maximize revenues?”
What to do next?1. Start thinking about your
organization’s “big decisions”2. Identify outcomes and goals3. Identify levers4. Identify externals5. Build a decision model picture to
show how they connect6. Identify data that can be learned from
to analyze cause-and-effect links.7. Where data is missing, find human
expertise8. Combine existing learned rules as
parts of the full decision model9. Assign someone to be responsible10. Learn about complex systems analysis11. Learn about optimization and
simulation
Learn more on at http://www.youtube.com/quantelliaUnified resource: http://www.scoop.it/t/decison-intelligence
Thank YouDr. Lorien Pratt, Chief Scientist, @Quantellia, www.quantellia.com
+1 303 589 7476
http://www.scoop.it/t/decision-intelligence
Copyright © 2014 Quantellia LLC