Decarbonizing Long Haul Road Freight:
Opportunities and Challenges
Professor Alan McKinnon
Kühne Logistics UniversityHamburg
CILT Scotland
29th October 2020
bn tonnes of CO2
Remaining CO2 budget to have 2/3 chance of staying within 1.5oC global temperature increase
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2026 2027 2028 2029
(assuming continuing annual emission rate of 42 Gt CO2)
Steady Stream of Scientific Evidence
https://bit.ly/3h6Xrrp
Source: Prof Ed Hawkins
Guardian 27-10-2020
Impact of Covid19 on CO2 emissions from global freight transport
-36%
tonne-kms
-28%
freight CO2
-30%
freight CO2
temporary Covid19 impact current ambition scenario 2015-2030https://bit.ly/2Vb0FSB
Target reduction in CO2 emissions from freight transport over 15 years achieved in 3 months
https://on.bcg.com/31Vw9A1Source: Boston Consulting Group (2020)
CO2 emissions from EU transport to be reduced by 90% between 2015 and 2050
‘net zero’ target
by 2060 or earlier
28 countries + EU
https://bit.ly/3oCpaFv
Road freight share of global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
very hard sector to decarbonise
Heavy dependence on fossil fuel
High forecast growth rate
global GHG emissions
global energy-related CO2 emissions
global transport CO2 emissions
global freight CO2 emissions
other GHGs other energy-related CO2 58%
other activities
passenger
transport 23%
freight 42%
road 67%other modes
road freight transport 3.8% of global GHG emissions
Based on Smart Freight Centre: https://bit.ly/3jBNPX8
Get rid of trucks and reduce global CO2
emissions by 2 billion tonnes annually?
International Organisations Promoting the Decarbonisation of Trucking
Recent reports on the decarbonisation of road freight transport
Road Freight Decarbonisation Options
1. Reduce the Total Amount of Freight Movement
5. Reduce the Carbon Content of Freight Transport Energy
2. Shift Freight to Lower Carbon Transport Modes
3. Optimise the Utilisation of Vehicle Capacity
4. Increase Energy Efficiency of Freight Transport
Logistics System Design / Supply Chain Restructuring
Vehicle Maintenance
Driving
Vehicle Loading
Vehicle Routing and Scheduling
Vehicle
Technology
Freight Modal Shift
Alternative
Fuels
emissions per vehicle-km
total emissions
total vehicle-kms
25% improvement in efficiency of truck routeing
transfer 30% of road tonne-kms to rail
80% reduction in carbon intensity of rail freight
30% increase in loading of laden trucks
30% reduction in empty running of trucks
50% increase in truck energy efficiency
60% drop in carbon content of truck energy
90% reduction in carbon intensity
Leveraging key freight parameters to achieve a 90% reduction in CO2 emissions
+
+
+
+
+
Decarbonising Road Freight Transport by 2050
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Scenario 1 Scenario 2Scenario 1
EU road tkm reference scenario(with constant carbon intensity)
28% more accumulated
CO2 emissions by 2050
100109
117126
134143
151160
100109
117126
134
95
56
16
100109
117
97
77
57
36
16
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BAU 2035 peak 2025 peak
BAU trend
2025 peak2035 peak
heavier reliance
on switch to low
carbon energy
Case study: TCO of long-haul truck in Germany
Hydrogen Fuel CellFCEV
Battery ElectricBEV
Catenary ElectricCAT
Synthetic fuelSYNFUEL
Biofuelbiomethane
Intensifying debate over powertrain technologies / energies
hybrids
comparative studies of powertrain technologies use differing criteria and assumptions
great uncertainty e.g. about future rates of electricity decarbonisation and vehicle depreciation
major European truck manufacturers have differing powertrain preferences and strategies
Case study: TCO of long-haul truck in Germany
https://bit.ly/3jlbBX0 https://pwc.to/2HjH9Qe
https://bit.ly/3jqrtrz
Reduce the Carbon Content of Freight Transport Energy
Biofuels
Source: T&E
Life-cycle GHG emissions relative to diesel fuel
34% of EU biodiesel from palm oil
Anaerobic digestion of food and agricultural waste
Biomethane
0 1 2 3 4
Diesel (with averagebiodiesel blend)
Biomethane
kg CO2e / kg
comparison of well-to-wheel emissions
• limited supply• competing demands for available supply• lack of gas refuelling facilities
premature policy support for biodiesel as a decarbonisation fuel
https://bit.ly/31QumeZ
Electrification Scenario for Achieving Zero Carbon Logistics?
• Decarbonise electricity generation
• Electrify all logistical activities
• Ensure there is enough zero carbon electricity to meet demand
International variation in carbon intensity of electricity generation
Source: International Energy Agency (2019)
competing demands for low –carbon electricity
electric cars increase from 3 million today to 300 million by 2040
switch from fossil fuel heating to electric heating in homes
increases domestic electricity demand by 45% by 2040
+ huge growth in air conditioning
Global electricity demand forecast to increase 60% by 2040
11
forecast decline in carbon intensity
of UK electricity
Source: BEIS (2019) https://bit.ly/2MNcF8a
Batteriesbatteries too heavy for long haul trucks?
Over 250 mile range electric truck achieves weight parity with diesel.
Over 300-500 miles weight penalty is 3.5% or less
diesel battery electric
battery recharging times too long?
400 kW/h
recharging speeds accelerating
900 kW/h
fast charge for 400km range in 30 minutes
Cost of lithium ion battery pack
$ per kilowatt-hour
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
800
400
will BEVs be too expensive?
TCO parity with diesel by 2030?
• development of recharging network
• rate of electricity decarbonisation
• availability of battery materials
• residual value of BEVs
https://bit.ly/3mt2VQo
https://bit.ly/3jqrtrz
Tesla electric semi
Capital cost of highway electrification: around €2m per km (for one lane in both directions)
Highway electrification: the e-Highway
60% of heavy truck CO2 emissions in Germany occur on only 2% of road network
89% of truck trips after leaving highway have a length of 50km or less.
Source: Siemens
Trials in California, Germany and Sweden
Oct 2020: Sweden plans to electrify
2000km of highway for trucks by 2030
BDI Study: recommends 4-8000 km of German autobahn network be electrified (out of 13000 km)
phasing the construction of e-Highway infrastructure with ramp-up of trolley
truck manufacture and demand
development, decarbonisation and pricing of supporting
energy infrastructure
UK
https://bit.ly/2TwmjPU
Hydrogen
hydrogen fuel-cell truck
• long range
• rapid refuelling
• limited weight penaltyBlue hydrogen
essentially a fossil-fuel made from natural gas by process of Steam Methane Reforming (SRM)
Green hydrogen Electrolysed from water with low carbon electricitymass produced by 2030?
energy efficiency (WTW)
77%
62%
29%
ERS 3500 wind turbines – 5300km2
hydrogen fuel cell12000 wind turbines18000 km2
comparative land requirements for wind energy
high energy losses in chemical-energy conversions • need to develop hydrogen refuelling network
• time-scale for the transition from blue to green hydrogen?
• fuel-cell technology much less mature than that of batteries
https://bit.ly/328mztt
hydrogen: 3.3 times more energy and cost than ERS
Grey hydrogen
Grey hydrogen with carbon capture and storage
payload weight
trip length
payload weight
trip length
payload weight
trip length
plug-in hybrid
payload weight
trip length
battery electric
battery electric
hydrogen fuel cell
ERS / hybrid
Operational ‘sweet spots’ for different decarbonisation technologies in long haul trucking
Adapted from North American
Council for Freight Efficiency (2019)
• powertrain specialisation may work for some own account operations and specialist hauliers
• general road hauliers seek operational flexibility and ability to carry a variety of products over differing distances
risk of spreading available capital investment in truck manufacturing capacity and alternative energy infrastructures too thinly
Deployment of multiple powertrain technologies: no ‘one-size fits all’
71%
Poland: 22 years to replace fleet at annual renewal rate (2017)
Germany:
Germany Europe +Turkey EU fuel / CO2 standards for new trucks
-15%
-30%
57
48
40
gCO2/tonne-km
penalties per vehicle
sold for non-
compliance
per gCO2 / tkm
2025-2029
€4250
post 2030
€6800
Increasing fuel efficiency of new ICE trucks
70% 90%
Heavy dependence on ICE trucks for next 15-20 years
10 years at annual renewal rate (2014)
size of national truck fleets
time to replace EU28 truck fleet (at 2017 rate)
12.7 years (unweighted)13.9 years weighted by national road tonne-kms
accelerated by regulatory / fiscal pressures?
slowed by: weak financial position post-Covidhigher total cost of ownershipuncertainty about residual valuesinfrastructural provision
2019 2025 2030
https://bit.ly/3ofVZrM https://pwc.to/2HjH9Qe
https://bit.ly/3dJfmV0
https://bit.ly/3kh17Jy
platooning
electrified highways
urban freight consolidation aerodynamic profiling
eco-driver trainingphysical internet
hydrogen fuel cells
hybridisation
synchromodality
down-speeding
high capacity transport
predictive analytics
anti-idling
lightweighting
low rolling resistance
smart cruise controlvehicle automation
online load matching
biofuelsvehicle telematics
preventative maintenance
pollution-routeing
delivery rescheduling
supply chain collaboration battery-powered vehicles
natural gas vehicles nominated day delivery
ease of implementation
CO
2 a
bat
emen
t p
ote
nti
al
low high
low
hightechnological development operational /managerial / regulatory development
Logistics decarbonisation measures: CO2 abatement – implementation graph
ease of implementation
Technology and energy supply bias: under-estimation of the possible contribution from logistics management
Adapted from Cebon (2017)
Improving Energy Efficiency in the Road Freight Transport Sector
vehicle technology: new build + retrofits
change operating practices: e.g. reduce maximum speed
driver training and monitoring
eco-driver training
telematic monitoring
upgrade fuel efficiency of ancillary equipment
e.g. more efficient transport refrigeration units,better insulation, improved operationalprocedures, alternative refrigerants
Truck automation
Truck platooning
Improve vehicle maintenance
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%artics
rigids
all HGVs
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
artics
rigidsall HGVs
weight-based load factor on laden trips % of empty running
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
km/l
itre
artics
rigids
average fuel efficiency of road freight operations
UK Road Freight Trends in Key Decarbonisation Parameters
Source:
UK Department for
Transport
https://bit.ly/3jJckBO
reduce road freight activityimprove loading
energy efficiency
electrify
switch to biofuels
reference scenario
modern truck scenario
Source: International Energy Agency (2017)
Possible Contribution of Logistics Management Options to Road Freight Decarbonisation
demand management can cut CO2 emissions by28% in heavy-road sector
by 2050
Mt CO2 saved by 2040
Source: Energy Transitions Commission (2019)
0 100 200 300
supply chain collaboration
modal shift to rail
optimised fleet / routing
fuel efficient driving
modal shift to shipping
42% contribution of logistics to fuel savings
https://bit.ly/2IQJ5jE
https://bit.ly/3jcc1is
Constraints on Truck Utilisation
Regulatory
Market-related
Inter-functional
Infrastructural
Equipment-related
Demand fluctuations
Unreliable delivery schedules
Vehicle size and weight restrictions
Nature of packaging / handling equipment
Incompatibility of vehicle for back-loading
Uncertainty about transport requirements
Lack of supply chain collaboration
Limited storage capacity at destination
Health and safety regulations
Just-in-Time delivery
Unbalanced traffic flows
Logistical cost trade-offs
Some suppliers have adapted better than others to
the disciplines of just-in-time delivery
Some suppliers have adapted better than others to
the disciplines of just-in-time delivery
Should We Reverse the Just-in-Time Trend?
Relaxing JIT:• more time to consolidate loads and find backhauls• easier for rail and water to compete for freight
But:• JIT is business paradigm that minimizes waste• contributes to energy and CO2 savings in
production, warehousing etc.
Post-Covid greater emphasis on supply chain resilience and possible relaxation of JIT pressures?
High Capacity Transport in Europe 2019
Germany:
25.25 metre 40/44 tonnes
Sweden
25.25 metre 74 tonnes
UK:
trial of 1-2 m longer trailers
Extensive use of double-deck trailers
Finland
34.5 metre 76 tonnes
Netherlands:
25.25m 60 tonne
Denmark:
25.25m 60 tonnes
Norway
25.25 metre 60 tonnes
Spain
25.25 metre 60 tonnes
Flanders
HCT pilot project
Load consolidation cuts truck-kms, fuel use, emissions, accidents and labour demands
Net CO2 savings even after allowance made for modal shift and induced traffic
Relaxing Truck Size and Weight Constraints
UK longer semi-trailer trial
up to 15% more pallets
2013-201837K tonnes of CO2e saved
EU limit4m
5m
Slovenia 4.2m
Finland 4.4m
Ireland 4.65m
UK ‘custom and practice’ 4.9m
Source: ITF (2015)
Gaining extra capacity vertically: UK double-deck trailer – major contributor to UK road freight decarbonisation
Case study48% reduction in CO2 emissions
No national statistics on:
• number of double-deck trailers
• trailer types
• loading
• mileage
• CO2 savings
https://bit.ly/37R9UyK
increases in truck size and /or weight limits since 2013
22
1. Separate delivery operations 2. Groupage by Logistics Provider
3. Collaborative synchronisation
Kg
CO2 /
tonne
1. Separate delivery 43.8
2. Groupage 27.3
3. Collaborative synchronisation 20.3
Nestle – Pepsico Horizontal Collaboration in Benelux
Source: Jacobs et al 2014
EU project:
Supply Chain Collaboration
Deep decarbonisation of freight transport will need much greater sharing of logistics assets
‘Physical encapulation ’ of goods in a new generation of modularised containers’
applying networking of principles of the internet to physical movement of freight
Open, collaborative network with full visibility and incentivized asset sharing
The Physical Internet
a 2050 vision
https://bit.ly/2TzTJ04
What will it take to induce wide and rapid uptake of logistics management options?
World Bank dashboard of carbon pricing initiatives (2020)
If all implemented would cover 22% of global GHG emissions
monetising of GHG emissions: decarbonisation game-changer
Very difficult to apply emissions trading in road freight sector?
setting absolute carbon reduction targets carbon-sensitive road
freight procurementadvise / incentivise / require carriers to
measure / report /reduce emissions
not able to calculate emissions
calculate, breakdown and disclose emissions
only calculate emissions for whole company
Transporeon (2020) survey of 1200 carriers
digital freight platforms
smart infrastructure
smart vehicles
data pooling
digitalisation of logistics
43%
https://bit.ly/2QXOS7T
https://bit.ly/2IRo4W1
https://bit.ly/3jbPdiU https://bit.ly/35h2dil
https://bit.ly/3jmvywx
Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) analysis for decarbonisation of articulated trucks in the UK by 2040
net CO2 and cost savings
https://srf-optimiser.valuechainlab.com/
https://bit.ly/31TI6Wt
projected reduction in carbon intensity of road freight transport
Global variations in growth of road freight emissions and decarbonisation rates
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2015 2030 2050
OECD non-OECD
tonnes CO2 per vehicle-km
projected increase in CO2 emissions from road freight transport
0.0002
0.0003
0.0004
0.0005
0.0006
0.0007
0.0008
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Africa
North America
EU27
Latin America
China
Middle EastIndia
current ambition scenarios for 2030 and 2050
Main growth in road freight emissions in regions with much slower decarbonisation rate than the EU
https://bit.ly/31slD2p
Kühne Logistics University – the KLUWissenschaftliche Hochschule für Logistik und UnternehmensführungGrosser Grasbrook 1720457 Hamburg
tel.: +49 40 328707-271fax: +49 40 328707-109
e-mail: [email protected]: www.the-klu.org
www.alanmckinnon.co.uk
Professor Alan McKinnon
@alancmckinnon
https://bit.ly/34hp5Pl
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