DAILY I FOREX REPORT 28
TH
FEBRUARY 2013
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Euro at Risk on Italian Bond Sale, Pound Sold Before GDP Data
Forex: USD/JPY And S&P 500 Well Positioned For Risk Aversion
Forex News: USD/JPY Unmoved on Retail Trade Report
Euro at Risk on Italian Bond Sale, Pound Sold Before GDP Data
Italy remains in focus as Rome prepares to sell €6.5 billion in 5- and 10-year bonds. Traders will keep a close eye on average yield and bid-to-cover readings, with a marked pickup in borrowing costs and/or a drop in demand likely to be seen as signs of rising sovereign risk amid political uncertainty in the wake of the weekend’s election. Needless to say, such an outcome bodes ill for the Euro.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.3122 tgs
1.3142/1.3162 sl 1.3092
SELL USDJPY BELOW
91.59 tgt 91.39/91.19
SL 91.89
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5080 tgt
1.5060/1.5040 SL
1.5110
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3069
HIGH: 1.3122
LOW: 1.3041
CLOSE: 1.3091
EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
TREND : BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD =>-.0006(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => (BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 92.11
HIGH: 92.26
LOW: 91.59
CLOSE: 91.61
USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD => -0.02( BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>39(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5130
HIGH: 1.5165
LOW: 1.5080
CLOSE: 1.5139
GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD => .0002( BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 51(BEARIISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8637
HIGH: 0.8673
LOW: 0.8626
CLOSE: 0.8645
EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>-.0002(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>40(BEARISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY EURGBP CHART
HOURLY USDINDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 81.8780
HIGH: 81.9180
LOW: 81.5650
CLOSE: 81.7160
USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD =>0.217(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>45(BULLISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Mon
Feb 25 01:45
CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (FEB)
Medium 50.4 52.2 52.3
09:30
GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (JAN)
Medium 32288 34000 33440
10:00
EUR Italy to Sell 2014 Bonds and 2021, 2026 I/L Bonds
Medium
13:30
USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (JAN)
Medium
0.02
14:00
EUR Italian Voting Ends, Exit Polls to be Released
High
15:30
USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (FEB)
Low
3.0 5.5
21:15
RBA Assistant Governor Debelle
Addresses Business School
Low
Tue Feb 26
AUD APEC Finance and Central Bank Deputies' Meeting
Medium
00:00
USD Fed's Lockhart Speaks on Economy in
Tennessee
Low
GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (FEB)
Low
-0.3%
GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.0%
02:00
NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation (1Q)
High
2.3%
05:00
JPY Small Business Confidence (FEB)
Medium
44.3
11:00
GBP CBI Reported Sales (FEB)
Low
16 17
14:00
USD House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (4Q)
Medium
1.1%
14:00
USD House Price Index
(MoM) (DEC) Medium
0.6% 0.6%
14:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) (4Q)
Low
7.00% 3.64%
ECONOMIC CALENDER
14:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index
(4Q)
Low
135.67
14:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (DEC)
Low
145.82
14:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (DEC)
Low
6.6% 5.52%
14:00
USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.6% 0.63%
15:00
USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies at Senate Banking Committee
High
15:00
USD Consumer Confidence (FEB)
High
62 58.6
15:00
USD New Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
3.0% -7.3%
15:00
USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (FEB)
Low
-3 -12
15:00
USD New Home Sales (JAN)
Low
380K 369K
21:45
NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JAN)
Medium
125M 486M
21:45
NZD Balance (YTD)
(New Zealand dollars) (JAN)
Medium
-897M -1208M
21:45
NZD Net Migration s.a. (JAN)
Low
0
21:45
NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (JAN)
Low
3.50B 3.58B
21:45
NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (JAN)
Low
3.60B 4.07B
23:50
JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-1.6% 0.3%
23:50
JPY Large Retailers'
Sales (JAN) Medium
-0.8% 0.1%
23:50
JPY Retail Trade (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.8% 0.0%
Wed Feb 27
00:30
AUD Construction Work Done (4Q)
Low
1.5% 1.7%
07:00
EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Mar)
Medium
5.9 5.8
07:00
CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (JAN)
Medium
1.34
07:00
EUR German Import Price Index (YoY)
(JAN)
Low
-0.4% 0.3%
07:00
EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.5% -0.5%
08:00
CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (FEB)
Medium
1.00 1.05
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JAN)
Low
3.2% 3.3%
09:30
GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q P)
High
0.0% 0.0%
09:30
GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P)
High
-0.3% -0.3%
09:30
GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (4Q P)
Medium
5.1%
09:30
GBP Gross Fixed Capital Formation (4Q
P)
Low
0.2% -0.2%
09:30
GBP Government Spending (4Q P)
Low
0.1% 0.8%
09:30
GBP Exports (4Q P) Low
-0.6% 1.2%
09:30
GBP Total Business
Investment (QoQ) (4Q P)
Low
3.8%
09:30
GBP Private Consumption (4Q P)
Low
-0.1% 0.4%
09:30
GBP Index of Services (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.0% 0.0%
09:30
GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (DEC)
Low
0.1% 0.6%
09:30
GBP Imports (4Q P) Low
0.0% -0.4%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence
(FEB)
Medium
89.9 89.2
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (FEB)
Low
-8.8 -8.8
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (FEB)
Low
-13.1 -13.9
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (FEB F)
Low
-23.6 -23.6
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (FEB)
Low
-1.02 -1.09
12:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 22)
Low
-1.7%
13:30
USD Durable Goods Orders (JAN)
High
-4.0% 4.6%
13:30
USD Durables Ex Transportation (JAN)
Medium
0.3% 1.3%
13:30
USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (JAN)
Low
-0.8% 0.3%
13:30
USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
(JAN)
Low
0.2% 0.2%
15:00
USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
4.9%
15:00
USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)
Low
2.0% -4.3%
15:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (FEB 22)
Low
-2884K
15:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (FEB 22)
Low
-2277K
15:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 22)
Low
4143K
15:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (FEB 22)
Low
417K
21:30
USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy in
New York
Low
21:45
NZD Building Permits (MoM) (JAN)
Low
-2.0% 9.4%
23:15
JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager
Index (FEB)
Medium
47.7
23:50
JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN P)
Medium
-4.8% -7.9%
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (FEB 22)
Low
-¥414.7B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (FEB 22)
Low
-¥620.6B
23:50
JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN P)
Low
1.5% 2.4%
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Stocks (Yen) (FEB 22)
Low
¥197.9B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (FEB 22)
Low
-¥181.2B
Thu Feb 28
00:00
AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
6.2%
00:00
NZD ANZ Business Confidence (FEB)
Low
22.7
00:00
NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (FEB)
Low
31.4
00:01
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (FEB)
Medium
-27 -26
00:30
AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
3.6%
00:30
AUD Private Capital Expenditure (4Q)
Medium
3.7% 2.8%
00:30
AUD Average Weekly Wages (YoY) (Nov)
Medium
0.3% 3.4%
00:30
AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.4%
00:30
AUD Average Weekly Wages (QoQ) (Nov)
Low
1.0% 0.4%
01:30
JPY BOJ Board MembeJPY Kiuchi Speaks to Business Leaders
Low
01:35
CNY MNI February
Business Sentiment Indicator
Low
02:00
NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JAN)
Low
6.0%
04:00
JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (JAN)
Low
-17.2%
05:00
JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
8.8% 10.0%
05:00
JPY Annualized Housing Starts (JAN)
Medium
0.894M 0.880M
05:00
JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (JAN)
Low
4.8%
06:45
CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q)
High
0.9% 1.4%
06:45
CHF Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q)
Medium
0.0% 0.6%
08:55
EUR German Unemployment Change (FEB)
High
0K -16K
08:55
EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB)
Medium
6.8% 6.8%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index
(YoY) (JAN)
High
2.0% 2.0%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (JAN)
High
1.5% 1.5%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
-1.0% 0.4%
10:00
CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-0.3%
10:00
CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
0.1%
13:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB P)
High
1.7% 1.7%
13:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY)
High
1.7% 1.9%
(FEB P)
13:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB P)
Medium
0.7% -0.5%
13:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB P)
Medium
0.7% -0.7%
13:30
USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (4Q S)
High
0.6% 0.6%
13:30
USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q S)
High
0.5% -0.1%
13:30
USD Personal
Consumption (4Q S) Medium
2.3% 2.2%
13:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 24)
Medium
360K 362K
13:30
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q S)
Medium
0.9% 0.9%
13:30
CAD Current Account (BoP) (Canadian dollar) (4Q)
Medium
-$18.9B
13:30
USD Continuing Claims (FEB 17)
Low
3140K 3148K
13:30
CAD Raw Materials
Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.9% -2.0%
13:30
CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.2% 0.0%
14:00
USD NAPM-Milwaukee (FEB)
Low
51.3
14:45
USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (FEB)
Low
54.1 55.6
15:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (FEB 22)
Low
-127
16:00
USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (FEB)
Low
-2
21:45
NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (4Q)
Medium
1.4% -3.2%
22:30
AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index
(FEB)
Medium
40.2
23:00
AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (FEB)
Low
23:30
JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
High
-0.2% -0.1%
23:30
JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-0.7% -0.6%
23:30
JPY National Consumer Price Index
Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-0.2% -0.2%
23:30
JPY Jobless Rate (JAN)
Medium
4.2% 4.2%
23:30
JPY Household Spending (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
0.4% -0.7%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
Low
-0.6% -0.6%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (FEB)
Low
-1.0% -0.9%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (FEB)
Low
-0.5% -0.5%
23:30
JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JAN)
Low
0.83 0.82
23:50
JPY Capital Spending excl Software (4Q)
Medium
-6.5% 2.4%
23:50
JPY Capital Spending (4Q)
Medium
-7.2% 2.2%
23:50
JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JAN)
Low
1.0%
Fri Mar 1
JPY Official Reserve
Assets (FEB) Low
$1267.3B
01:00
CNY Manufacturing PMI (FEB)
High
50.5 50.4
01:00
USD Fed's Evans Speaks in Des Moines
Low
01:45
CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (FEB)
Medium
52.3
05:00
JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (FEB)
Low
-12.9%
05:30
AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (FEB)
Low
90.3
05:30
AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (FEB)
Low
-6.4%
07:00
GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
-0.2% 0.0%
07:00
EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-1.7% -4.7%
07:00
GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.2% 0.5%
07:00
EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.9% -1.7%
08:30
CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (FEB)
Medium
52.1 52.5
08:45
EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index
Manufacturing (FEB)
Low
47.6 47.8
08:50
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB F)
Low
43.6 43.6
08:55
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB F)
Medium
50.1 50.1
09:00
EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (4Q)
Medium
10.6%
09:00
EUR Italian Unemployment Rate
s.a. (JAN P)
Medium
11.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB F)
Medium
47.8 47.8
09:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index
Manufacturing (FEB)
Medium
51 50.8
09:30
GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JAN)
Medium
0.8B 1.0B
09:30
GBP Net Consumer Credit (JAN)
Medium
0.2B 0.6B
09:30
GBP Mortgage
Approvals (JAN) Medium
56.5K 55.8K
09:30
GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JAN)
Low
-1.0%
09:30
GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.7%
09:30
GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JAN)
Low
3.8%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JAN)
Medium
11.8% 11.7%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
1.9% 2.0%
11:00
EUR Italian Annual Gross Domestic Product (2012)
Medium
-2.2% 0.4%
13:30
CAD Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (4Q)
High
0.7% 0.6%
13:30
CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (DEC)
High
1.3%
13:30
USD Personal Spending (JAN)
Medium
0.2% 0.2%
13:30
USD Personal Income
(JAN) Medium
-2.0% 2.6%
13:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
1.3% 1.4%
13:30
CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (DEC)
Medium
-0.1% 0.3%
13:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JAN)
Low
1.2% 1.3%
13:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.1% 0.0%
13:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.1% 0.0%
13:58
USD Markit US PMI
Final (FEB) Medium
14:55
USD U. of Michigan Confidence (FEB F)
Medium
76.3 76.3
15:00
USD ISM Manufacturing (FEB)
High
52.5 53.1
15:00
USD ISM Prices Paid (FEB)
Medium
57 56.5
15:00
USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
0.5% 0.9%
22:00
USD Total Vehicle Sales (FEB)
Low
15.05M 15.23M
22:00
USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (FEB)
Low
11.90M 12.08M
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