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CRGAQS:Revised CAMx Results

Presentation to theGorge Study Technical Team

ByENVIRON International Corporation

December 6, 2006


Today’s Presentation

• Recap modeling performance issues

• Describe latest CAMx simulations– Model and emission changes

• Performance for PM and light scattering

• Next Steps


Modeling Issues

• Episodes– August 10-22, 2004 – November 4-18, 2004

• Identified issues from sensitivity runs– Primary fine/coarse PM over predicted in

both episodes• Dominating modeled light scattering

• Windblown dust vs. fires?

• Nope: construction + agricultural fugitive dust


Modeling Issues

– OC over predicted in both episodes• SOA is dominant in Aug (mainly biogenic)

• POA (+EC) is dominant in Nov near Portland (wood smoke)

– Why is modeled scattering nearly zero in mid-November in the Mt Zion area?• Easterly winds accelerate through Gorge and

send Portland emissions offshore


Modeling Issues

– Why is modeled scattering so low at the eastern sites in November?• No speciated data at Gorge study sites

• IMPROVE data on Nov 11 indicates dominance of NO3 and OC

– OC, EC, and SO4 performance is good in east– NO3 is under predicted in east

• We rely on modeled RH to generate the nitrate (complex process)

• We use observed RH to translate nitrate mass to nitrate scattering (simple process)


Revised Model Configuration

• SOA– Historically under predicted by CMAQ

and CAMx in the western U.S. (e.g., WRAP)• Attributed to the biogenic component

– We employed a chemical improvement in CAMx for biogenic SOA• Same as put into CMAQ for the RPOs• Terpene 2-product mechanism: higher yields,

higher volatility• Should reduce biogenic SOA


Revised Model Configuration

• Fugitive dust– 2 SMOKE problems:

• WRAP speciation profiles caused a double-counting of OR/WA dust estimates

– This also impacted OR/WA woodsmoke emissions

• No county-level “canopy escape factor” was applied (as developed and applied in WRAP)

– Both have been fixed and SMOKE re-run• Significant coarse PM reductions

– Note: WRAP has chosen to completely disregard primary coarse PM predictions


Performance Evaluation

-2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700800

900

1000

B onnev illeM t.Z ion M em aloose

Sauvie Is land

Tow al R dW ishramCO G O 1

CO RI1

M O H O 1

7 M ile H ill

S te igerw aldStrunk R d

G orge m onitors (9)C ASTN ET (0)IM PR OVE (3)EP A FR M (7)EP A STN (1)


August Performance Evaluation

Bscat. 04aug.run7

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Observed [1/Mm]

Gorge

Sauvie Island Bscat

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Bscat [1/M

m]

Bscat, observed Bscat, 04aug.run7

Mt Zion Bscat

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Bscat [1/M

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Bonneville Bscat

0102030405060708090

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Bscat [1/M

m]


Wishram Bscat

0102030405060708090

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Bscat [1/M

m]


Gorge Site Bscat

East Portland


SO4. 04aug.run7

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7

8

0 2 4 6 8

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

August Performance EvaluationNO3. 04aug.run7

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

FINE. 04aug.run7

0

1

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5

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0 2 4 6

Observed ug/m̂ 3

IMPROVE

PM25. 04aug.run7

0

5

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30

0 10 20 30

Observed ug/m̂ 3

IMPROVE FRM

Bonneville

OC. 04aug.run7

0

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0 5 10

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

EC. 04aug.run7

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0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0 1 2 3

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

Mt. Zion

Wishram


August Performance Statistics

August SO4 NO3 OC EC Fine PM2.5 Improve FB -54 -151 30 25 -64 -7 Improve FE 54 151 55 39 74 30 Gorge FB -72* -83 30 82 Gorge FE 80* 119 43 82 STN FB -57 -111 -37 14 STN FE 57 111 57 45 FRM FB -1 FRM FE 26


August Performance EvaluationSO4 at Bonneville

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7

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[ug

/m^

3]

Observed 04aug.run7

NO3 at Bonneville

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0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

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[u

g/m

^3]

Observed 04aug.run7

OC at Bonneville

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[ug

/m^

3]

Observed 04aug.run7

EC at Bonneville

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[u

g/m

^3]

Observed 04aug.run7


August Performance EvaluationSO4 at Mt Zion

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2.5

3

223

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[ug

/m^

3]

Observed 04aug.run7

NO3 at Mt Zion

0

0.51

1.52

2.5

33.5

4

223

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[ug

/m^

3]

Observed 04aug.run7

OC at Mt Zion

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25

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[ug

/m^

3]

Observed 04aug.run7

EC at Mt Zion

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6

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[ug

/m^

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Observed 04aug.run7


Gorge Study vs. IMPROVEAt Mt. Zion

Gorge vs. IMPROVE OC at Mt Zion

0

2

4

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8

10

12

232 310 313 316 319 322

2004 Julian Date

[ug

/m^3

]

Gorge OC

IMPROVE

Gorge vs. IMPROVE EC at Mt Zion

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

232 310 313 316 319 322

2004 Julian Date

[u

g/m

^3]

Gorge EC

IMPROVE

Organic and Elemental Carbon


Gorge Study vs. IMPROVEAt Mt. Zion

Sulfate and Nitrate

Gorge vs. IMPROVE SO4 at Mt Zion

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

232 310 313 316 319 322

2004 Julian Date

[ug

/m^

3]

Gorge SO4

IMPROVE SO4

Gorge vs. IMPROVE NO3 at Mt Zion

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

232 310 313 316 319 322

2004 Julian Date

[ug

/m^

3]

Gorge NO3

IMPROVE NO3


August Summary

• Overall good performance for– Total PM2.5– Light scattering

• Low SO4/NH4 and primary fine– Questionable Gorge measurements– NO3 insufficient to worry about

• High carbon– SOA modification ineffective– What is underlying cause?

• Model over predicts diurnal variation


November Performance Evaluation

Gorge Site Bscat

Bscat. 04nov.run7

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Observed [1/Mm]

Gorge

Sauvie Island Bscat

050

100150200250300350400450

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Bscat [1/M

m]

Bscat, observed Bscat, 04nov.run7

Mt Zion Bscat

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500

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Bscat [1/M

m]


Bonneville Bscat

020406080

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Bscat [1/M

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Wishram Bscat

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Bscat [1/M

m]


Portland

Eastern Gorge


EC. 04nov.run7

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0 5 10

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

OC. 04nov.run7

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0 20 40 60

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

NO3. 04nov.run7

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0 5 10 15

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

SO4. 04nov.run7

0

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12

0 5 10

Observed [ug/m̂ 3]

Gorge IMPROVE STN

November Performance Evaluation

Bonneville

Mt. Zion

Mt. Zion

FINE. 04nov.run7

0

2

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18

0 5 10 15

Observed ug/m̂ 3

IMPROVE

PM25. 04nov.run7

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0 50 100

Observed ug/m̂ 3

IMPROVE FRM


November Performance Statistics

November SO4 NO3 OC EC Fine PM2.5 Improve FB 11 5 -3 25 144 30 Improve FE 35 105 51 67 144 55 Gorge FB -70* 25 14 67 Gorge FE 80* 113 59 71 STN FB -24 2 54 107 STN FE 57 86 54 107 FRM FB 47 FRM FE 66


November Performance EvaluationSO4 at Bonneville

0123456789

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[ug

/m^

3]

Observed 04nov.run7

NO3 at Bonneville

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[ug

/m^

3]

Observed 04nov.run7

OC at Bonneville

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[ug

/m^

3]

Observed 04nov.run7

EC at Bonneville

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0.5

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1.5

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2.5

3

3.5

309

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[ug

/m^

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Observed 04nov.run7


November Performance EvaluationSO4 at Mt Zion

0

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[ug

/m^

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Observed 04nov.run7

NO3 at Mt Zion

0

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[ug

/m^

3]

Observed 04nov.run7

OC at Mt Zion

0102030405060708090

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[ug

/m^

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Observed 04nov.run7

EC at Mt Zion

0

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[ug

/m^

3]

Observed 04nov.run7


November Summary

• Generally high total PM2.5– Dominated by carbon and primary fine

• Bifurcated performance for light scattering– Over predicted in Portland area: high carbon

and primary fine– Under predicted in eastern Gorge: low

SO4/NO3/NH4

• Need more humidity/clouds:– Generate more SO4– Condense more NO3


Next Steps

• Recommendations:– Focus on August episode

• 2018 Case

• PSAT

• “What-if” scenarios

• Use model trends in relative sense to scale IMPROVE observations

– Relegate November episode• Revisit with possible follow-on funding?