Western Sydney’s current and
future transport needs
Presentation to the Informa NSW
Transport Infrastructure Summit
7-8 August 2013
Alex Gooding, Gooding Davies Consultancy
Who and what makes up Western Sydney?
Greater Western Sydney (GWS):
• Governance: 14 LGAs (10 WSROC & 3 MACROC councils, & the Hills Shire)
• Area: 8,941 sq. km.
• Population: 2 million (nearly one in 11 Australians)
• Estimated growth: 3 million by 2031
• Proportion of Sydney: 44% of the Sydney SSD population (36% of the Sydney/Hunter/ Illawarra Greater Metro Area)
Source: RDA Sydney
How many jobs and workers are there
in Western Sydney?
• Annual GRP: $80.6 billion+ (Australia’s third-largest regional economy)
• No. of businesses: 161,000+
• Workforce: 850,000-900,000+
• Estimated growth: 1.4 million by 2031
• Jobs: approx. 700,000
• Notional jobs deficit: around 150,000 (22% of the workforce)
3
Where do people in Western Sydney work?
Local Government Areas:
• Top jobs location: Sydney City
• Other key LGAs: Parramatta,
Blacktown, the Hills,
Bankstown, Penrith & Liverpool
(65% of jobs in GWS)
• LGAs with net jobs surplus:
Parramatta and Auburn
4
Source: based on NSW BTS and ABS Census data
Where do people in Western Sydney work?
Employment Centres:
• In 2006 only around 25% of
Western Sydney jobs were
in the 13 major employment
centres…
• But employment in these
centres grew more strongly
than elsewhere between
2001 and 2006
5
Where do people in Western Sydney work?
Employment Growth 2006-11:
• Recent research suggests
Western Sydney job creation
between 2006 and 2011 was
well below planning targets
• Manufacturing lost nearly 9,000
jobs
• Jobs lost in wholesale, despite
major logistics investment
along the M7
• Growth has come largely from
public administration,
education/training and health
care/social assistance
6
Source: Prof Phil O’Neill presentation 2013
Where do people in Western Sydney work?
Employment flows:
• 235,000-270,000* (28%-32%) actually leave GWS for work…
• And nearly 120,000 people come to GWS to work
• By 2031 300,000 to 350,000 new jobs will be required in
GWS just to maintain the current employment containment
level (around 68%-72%)…
• And there will still be 120,000-150,000 extra trips out of the
region & 60,000 into GWS
* Includes 37,000 workers with multiple employment locations
7
How do Western Sydney workers get to work?
Overall:
• Train use: slightly lower
than Sydney average
• Bus use, bicycling and
walking: less than half
Sydney average
• Car use: nearly 15% higher
• Changing patterns: Use of
trains (up 18%) and buses
(up 55%, off a low base)
increasing faster than car
use (up 10.5% for drivers,
down 6% for passengers) 8
How do Western Sydney workers get to work?
Within Western Sydney:
• People working in GWS are
nearly 38% more likely to
travel by car (74.8%
compared to 54.5%)…
• And nearly 3.5 times less
likely to travel by train than
those leaving the region to
work (8.5% compared to
29.5%)
• So how do we ensure that
increasing employment
containment is sustainable?
9
Source: based on NSW BTS and ABS data
Why is the region so car-dependent?
• Rapid population growth fed by baby boom and post-
war immigration led to suburban expansion
• Spectacular rise in private car use and the closure of
the tram network in 1961
• Rail system in Western Sydney largely unchanged
from the 1930s to the 1970s
• Poor, fragmented private bus services
• Underinvestment by State and Federal Governments
in infrastructure…
• …coupled with an increasing role for the private sector,
especially in toll roads
Key planning & transport strategies 1948 – 2009
• 60 years of planning but little resulting GWS infrastructure….
11
1 1948 County of Cumberland Plan (1948—80) Cumberland County Council
2 1968 Sydney Region Outline Plan (1970-2000) NSW State Planning Authority
3 1974 Sydney Area Transportation Study (1974-2000) SATS
4 1987 Roads 2000 NSW Department of Main Roads
5 1988 Sydney into its Third Century (1986-2011) NSW Dept of Environment & Planning
6 1991 Better Cities Program Federal Government
7 1995 Integrated Transport Strategy NSW Department of Transport
8 1995 Sydney’s Future Cities for the 21st Century (1994-2021) NSW Department of Planning
9 1998 Shaping our Cities (1999-2016) NSW Dept of Urban Affairs & Planning
10 1998 Action for Transport 2010 (1998-2010) NSW Department of Transport
11 2006 City of Cities – A Plan for Sydney’s Future (2006-31) NSW Department of Planning
12 2006 Metropolitan Rail Expansion Program (2006-31) NSW Department of Transport
13 2008 NW Metro (2009-17) NSW Department of Transport
14 2008 CBD and West Metros (2009-15?) NSW Department of Transport
15 2009 National Infrastructure Priorities Infrastructure Australia (Federal)
Failing to create a balanced transport
network in Western Sydney…
Policy failures of the (not so distant) past:
• Numerous rail lines proposed – and promised - but only 13km and three new stations built since the 1930s
• Only two bus T-ways built out of plans for a complete network
• But over 100km of motorway (mostly tolled) now completed in Western Sydney & capacity being expanded
• New residential growth and employment centres built further and further away from the rail network
• Limited integration between bus and rail networks
• Travel between outer suburbs by public transport increasingly difficult
Western Sydney
Railways in the
1930s
Harris Park
“Y” Link
East Hills –
Glenfield
Extension
Olympic
Park Link
Western Sydney
Railways closed
and opened
since the 1930s
Failing to create a balanced transport
network in Western Sydney… Living with the consequences:
• Low-density suburban development greatly encouraged
by, and dependent on, the car
• Scattered multi-front, land releases which are difficult to
support
• Newer employment centres built without any public
transport access
• Road and motorway capacity fills up more quickly without
complementary public transport
• Much longer commuting times than in the rest of Sydney
(especially in the AM peak)
• High transport costs add to the financial vulnerability of
many households
16 Source: Dodson and Sipe (2008) Griffith University
17
Median income (residents aged 25-65),
Sydney, 2011
Source: Kelly and Mares (2003) Grattan Institute
Are we starting to create a balanced
transport network?: key influences • Fairfax Independent Public Inquiry Long Term Public
Transport Plan for Sydney: Final Report (2010)
– Identified the strong public interest in and support for investment in
public transport infrastructure
– Articulated a strong case for expansion of the rail system
– Outlined a detailed long-term planning, governance and funding
strategy to support infrastructure investment
– Proposed development of an integrated transport network over a
period of 25 years, with a focus on Western Sydney
• Infrastructure NSW State Infrastructure Plan (2012)
– Proposed a roads-based infrastructure strategy and opposed
almost all future rail investment
– Many aspects of this strategy were rejected, however the
WestConnex motorway proposal was endorsed by Government
18
Are we starting to create a balanced
transport network?: current policies
NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan
Better than many of the previous
plans: at least discusses some of
the key delivery and funding issues
Proposes protection of strategic
corridors and a bus priority network
in Western Sydney
Commits to SWRL and NWRL
Seeks to support the three “regional
cities” and new growth centres in
Western Sydney
Proposes incremental
improvements to service delivery
Light rail and bus plans for the CBD
will improve access for buses from
Western Sydney
ₓ However, as with previous
plans, the only real funding and
implementation commitments are very
short-term (with the partial exception
of NWRL & 1st stage WestConnex)
ₓ Several key commitments from the
draft Master Plan have disappeared
ₓ WestConnex project is of
questionable value and NWRL
proposal also very problematic
ₓ Does little to address capacity issues
in the rest of the rail network,
especially in Western Sydney
ₓ Apart from the regional cities, little
discussion of the transport needs of
established major employment
centres in Western Sydney
19
South West Rail Link:
a train to where?
First major Western Sydney
line since Olympic Park and
East Hills extension
Services new development
at Edmondson Park
Secures a corridor into the
SW growth centre well
ahead of development and
provides the basis for a
potential airport link
Also provides a major train
stabling facility
ₓ Little development planned
at Leppington terminus
ₓ Piecemeal development in
the SW has taken place
well away from the new line
ₓ Layout of the SW growth
centre makes it difficult for
any extension to serve both
residential development
and any proposed airport
20
North West Rail Link:
no place for a metro?
First really substantial rail
line in Western Sydney
since the 1930s
Will service established
area with high demand as
well as NW growth centre
Will provide connectivity
to major employment
centres (Norwest,
Macquarie Park and
Chatswood)
May eventually provide a
direct link to the LNS and
CBD
ₓ Metro benefits oversold
ₓ Little community input to decision
ₓ Involves privatisation of existing
PT infrastructure
ₓ Will cause major inconvenience
for Main North line passengers
ₓ Chatswood interchange a major,
potentially dangerous bottleneck
ₓ Will do little to relieve
overcrowded W. Sydney lines
ₓ Government’s desire to isolate
the line will destroy system
integration
21
WestConnex: back to
the 1950s?
Would provide “missing
links” in Sydney’s
motorway network
Would improve road
links to the port and
airport
May provide
opportunities for public
transport development
along Parramatta Road
corridor
ₓ Little community debate about road
v. public transport options
ₓ Huge cost - $10-$13 bn, especially
since “slot” approach abandoned
ₓ Will require considerable upfront
government investment as the
basis for a PPP
ₓ Is likely to result in major
congestion at CBD interchanges
and on the existing M4
ₓ Are we really building 1950s radial
motorways in the 21st century?
22
Other infrastructure policy “blunders”
ₓ Poor submissions to Infrastructure Australia by previous
State Governments = zero Federal funding to NSW
ₓ State-Federal Government stand-off over Parramatta-
Epping v. NWRL proposals = zero Federal funding
ₓ The NSW Transport Minister “welcoming” the Federal
Opposition Leader’s commitment not to end Federal
funding for urban rail infrastructure as “providing
certainty” (SMH 06/08/13) = zero Federal funding
(potentially)
Outcome: Vic, Qld, SA and WA have all received
substantial Federal funding for major public transport
projects. NSW has not and is unlikely to.
23
Western Sydney’s current and
future needs: summary Now to 2031:
• Population: Forecast to grow from two to three million
• Workforce: Forecast to grow from 900,000+ to 1.4 million
• Jobs: Will need to grow from 700,000+ to over a million to
just maintain current regional employment containment
• JTW out of region: Will grow from 270,000 to 400,000 plus
even if current containment levels are maintained
• JTW into the region: Could grow from 120,000 to 180,000
• JTW mode: Harder to predict but will depend on:
– The success or otherwise of policies to grow jobs in the region
– The extent to which these jobs can be located in major centres
– Decisions regarding transport infrastructure priorities and the level of
investment
– Changes in service provision
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Creating a balanced transport network in
Western Sydney
1. The big picture:
• Establish a proper, independent transport governance
and accountability framework
• Plan a genuine integrated transport network – and not
just a list of promises or PPPs
• Develop a robust implementation framework based on a
long-term funding strategy
• Rebalance investment in favour of public transport –
especially in Western Sydney
25
Source: Independent Public Inquiry into a Long-Term
Public Transport Plan for Sydney: Final Report (2010)
Creating a balanced transport network in
Western Sydney 2. No silver bullet – Western Sydney needs all of the
following:
• Detailed jobs creation strategies for all major
employment centres – not just the regional cities and
new growth centres – to boost employment containment
• An integrated transport network which develops the
following infrastructure: – Inter-regional links to the CBD and other centres outside
Western Sydney
– Intra-regional links between key employment and education
centres in Western Sydney
– Local feeder public transport services
– The local and intra-regional arterial road network to connect
major centres
26
Creating a balanced transport network in
Western Sydney 3. Inter-regional links
• Short-term:
– Completion of the NWRL – but as an integrated railway and not
a metro
– Increased capacity, frequency and speed on existing rail lines,
especially to Parramatta, Blacktown and Campbelltown
– Identify and reserve additional inter-regional public transport
corridors
• Medium-term:
– Construction of the Parramatta-Epping rail link
– Construction of the Second Harbour Crossing to provide
additional capacity throughout the network
27
Creating a balanced transport network in
Western Sydney 4. Intra-regional Links
• Short-term:
– Resume services from Blacktown to Campbelltown via
Parramatta on the Cumberland Line
– Develop a high-frequency, rapid bus priority network between all
major employment and education centres in the region
– In particular, prioritise north-south links, for example Parramatta
to Epping, Bankstown and Castle Hill, Rouse Hill to Penrith
– Identify and reserve additional intra-regional corridors
• Medium-term:
– Commence construction of an integrated bus T-way and light
rail network between key employment and education centres,
the latter based on Parramatta Council’s proposal for a regional
light rail network
28
29
Parramatta Council
proposed Western
Sydney Light Rail
Network
Source: Parramatta City Council (2013)
30
Source: Independent Public Inquiry into a Long-Term Public Transport Plan for Sydney: Final Report (2010)
Independent Public Inquiry:
Preferred Option
What is a “balanced” transport network?
• Inter-regional and intra-regional equity
• Economic and social equity
• Sustainability – environmental, social and economic
• Inter-generational equity
• Changing patterns of transport consumption
• Equity between transport demand and infrastructure
provision
• … and not just the balance between private and
public transport
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