Early high school interventions to increase students’ access to post-secondary education: Experimental impactsCRDCN Conference: Evidence-based policy formation and evaluation UNB FrederictonReuben Ford, PhD. October 23, 2012
Agenda Rationale behind programs to pilot Program model for two interventions: results to date
Early guarantee of grant Career education
Conclusions: • Early interventions can make a difference to behaviour:
increasing demand for and pursuit of education• Youth can be susceptible to quite modest intervention to
make potentially major changes in their lives Data to be made available for additional research via
Statistics Canada
Canada has high rates of participation in post-secondary education: what is the problem? Increasing the number of youth who participate in post-secondary
education is an economic imperative (promoting growth, innovation and competiveness as population ages) as well as an effective means to promote social inclusion and to reduce social and health inequalities.
Post-secondary access rates could be higher, particularly for young people in key subgroups:• From lower-income families• From “first-generation” families• Students with low academic achievement• Aboriginal youth• Males• Rural youth• Older students• New Brunswick, BC and Alberta
(School leavers survey and follow up: Butlin, 1999; Foley, 2001)
Why don’t they go on? Main reason non-attendees at 18-20 give for not pursuing PSE:
Interplay between external and internal factors• e.g. financial barrier conditioned on how handle feelings about
debt (Looker, 2002)
IllnessWanted trade or vocational training
Applied but was not accepted at schoolWanted to raise a family
No program of interest close to homeHad a good job
Marks too lowHad no interest in pursuing further education
Couldn't decide what to doOther
Wanted to take some time off from studyingDid not have enough money to continue
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
0.5
0.5
1.6
2.2
2.9
7.1
7.8
10.0
12.7
12.9
19.0
23.0
Why don’t they go on? Qualitative studies (COGEM, UofA):
• “for most underprivileged youth in Alberta, university isn’t even on the radar screen”;
• “a lack of awareness about the value of post-secondary education, the scarcity of role models or the absence of encouragement are all barriers to higher learning”
• Parents play an important role in students’ decisions• School officials play an important role only for a minority
If a young person has an “ideal” that involves PSE, which is likely to be heavily influenced by immediate or prevailing cultural environment, then PSE will become a goal – and vice versa. (Finnie and Mueller, 2012)
What can policy do to intervene? • Compensate or change?
Approaches to increase access to PSE: act earlier to change students’ education directions Act early: most programs focus on high-school leavers
• May be too late to change student education directions: decisions made earlier
• Missing the opportunity to change behaviour during final phase of mass (compulsory) education
Test interventions that legitimize and support PSE pathways:• Earlier assurances on affordability, financial aid• Earlier career education on how to make decisions on PSE
pathways, including information about costs and benefits of PSE• Academic preparation, encouragement and support to better take
advantage of existing high school programming directed to PSE• Remove barriers to obtaining important and timely information
Make preparing for the future matter Make preparing for the future easier to do
Future to Discover tests two of these interventions separately and in parallel
• EYH: Explore Your Horizons Enhanced early career education in Grades 10, 11, and 12
• LA: Learning Accounts Early guarantee of
$8,000 grant to pursue PSE for lower-income students
EYH is a career education intervention that delivers workshops, magazines, Web site
Six career education components delivered to a ‘new’ group:
Workshops – 2 hours after school/evening sessions (x20)
• Career Focusing (G10) – finding career focus• Lasting Gifts (G11) – parents become “career
allies”• Future in Focus (G12) – preparing for transition• Post-secondary Ambassadors (G10-G12)• F2D Magazine (G10-G12) – sent to home• Web site for EYH students only (G10-G12)
LA provides an early guarantee of student aid to lower-income families New Brunswick families with below median income
(taken from both parents’ tax returns) Account grows over Grades 10-12 Total $8,000 grant available Account closes at end of 3rd post-secondary year Early promise of aid: enter Grade 10 knowing grant
available No obligation to apply for loans
A random sample of 4,400 Grade 9 students were randomly assigned in NB and 1,000 in MB
Grade 9 students in 51 schools
New Brunswick Learning Accounts eligible
Random Assignment
Comparison Group
Learning Accounts
Explore Your Horizons + Learning
Accounts
Explore Your Horizons
New Brunswick Learning Accounts ineligible, and
Manitoba participants
Random Assignment
Explore Your Horizons
Comparison group
High school graduation and post-secondary impactsMeasured at the start of third academic year following “expected” high school graduation: Graduation (linked school records and YITS-style survey) Applications to and enrolment in post secondary education
(YITS-style survey)• University• Community College• Private Vocational Institutions• Apprenticeships
Enrolment in post secondary education (administrative data for provincial institutions)• University• Community College
LA impacts on graduation from high school - Fr
LA Comparison Impact0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
89.1184.92
4.19
90.06
82.71
7.35
86.46
79.04
7.41
81.48 81.34
0.14
NB-Fr participants graduated high school within five and a half years of assignment (%)
ALL LILE group Parents with high school or less Boys
****
LA increased PSE applications - Fr
LA Comparison Impact0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
80.83
68.61
12.23
80.65
62.36
18.3
74.40
55.54
18.86
77.78
60.39
17.39
NB-Fr participants applying to at least one PSE program within five and a half years of assignment (%)
ALL LILE group Parents with high school or less Boys
****** *** ***
Strong evidence LA increased PSE enrolment: NB Francophone students
*** **
-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00
ALL
LILE
FGF
Boys
Girls
Percentage point increase in PSE enrolment
Impact on ever enrolled in PSE by month 62
*********
EYH impacts on graduation from high school - Fr
EYH Comparison Impact0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
89.0385.37
3.66
88.7583.52
5.23
87.87
80.35
7.52
85.1281.87
3.25
NB-Fr participants graduated high school within five and a half years of assignment (%)
ALL LILE group FGF Parents with high school or less Boys
*
EYH increased PSE applications - Fr
EYH Comparison Impact0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
79.45
68.55
10.91
77.23
62.7
14.53
74.16
57.11
17.05
73.55
60.23
13.32
NB-Fr participants applying to at least one PSE program within five and a half years of assignment (%)
ALL LILE group FGF Parents with high school or less Boys
***** *** *
Strong evidence EYH increased PSE enrolment: NB Francophone students
*** **
-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00
ALL
LILE
FGF
Boys
Girls
Percentage point increase in PSE enrolment
Impact on ever enrolled in PSE by month 62
********
EYH+LA impacts on graduation from high school - Fr
EYH+LA Comparison Impact0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
85.8 85.25
0.56
87.8682.7
5.17
86.38
79.82
6.56
86.03
80.39
5.64
NB-Fr participants graduated high school within five and a half years of assignment (%)
ALL LILE group Parents with high school or less Boys
EYH+LA increased PSE applications - Fr
EYH+LA Comparison Impact0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
75.92
68.39
7.53
77.34
61.7
15.65
77.00
56.91
20.08
70.03
61.02
9.02
NB-Fr participants applying to at least one PSE program within five and a half years of assignment (%)
ALL LILE group Parents with high school or less Boys
**** ***
Some evidence EYH+LA increased PSE enrolment: NB Francophone students
*** **
-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00
ALL
LILE
FGF
Boys
Girls
Percentage point increase in PSE enrolment
Impact on ever enrolled in PSE by month 62
******
LA increased graduation from high school - An
LA Comparison Impact0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
89.15
80.33
8.82
88.76
77.74
11.02
86.48
75.15
11.34
89.71
75.50
14.21
NB-An participants graduated high school within five and a half years of assignment (%)
ALL LILE group FGF Parents with high school or less Boys
*
LA increased PSE applications - An
LA Comparison Impact0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
76.77
64.43
12.34
75.30
61.32
13.98
74.45
56.29
18.16
73.48
48.85
24.63
NB-An applying to at least one PSE program within five and a half years of assignment (%)
All LILE group Parents with high school or less Boys
*** ******
***
Weaker evidence LA increased PSE enrolment: NB Anglophone students
*** **
-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00
ALL
LILE
FGF
Boys
Girls
Percentage point increase in PSE enrolment
Impact on ever enrolled in PSE by month 62
**
*
EYH increased graduation from high school - An
EYH Comparison Impact0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
88.37
80.98
7.39
88.76
78.55
10.21
86.02
74.58
11.43
83.9
77.05
6.86
NB-An participants graduated high school within five and a half years of assignment (%)
ALL LILE group FGF Parents with high school or less Boys
** *** *
EYH increased PSE applications - An
EYH Comparison Impact0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
71.36
64.30
7.06
70.79
60.99
9.80
65.36
56.46
8.90
61.69
50.39
11.30
NB-An applying to at least one PSE program within five and a half years of assignment (%)
ALL LILE group FGF Parents with high school or less Boys
*
No evidence EYH increased PSE enrolment overall: NB Anglophone students
*** **
-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00
ALL
LILE
FGF
Boys
Girls
Percentage point increase in PSE enrolment
Impact on ever enrolled in PSE by month 62
EYH+LA increased graduation from high school - An
EYH+LA Comparison Impact0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
88.83
79.71
9.12
88.64
77.07
11.57
87.42
75.46
11.95
87.12
75.65
11.48
NB-An participants graduated from high school within five and a half years of assignment (%)
ALL LILE group Parents with high school or less Boys
*** ***
EYH+LA increased PSE applications - An
EYH+LA Comparison Impact0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
78.02
62.75
15.27
76.33
59.47
16.85
73.14
55.12
18.02
75.74
47.5
28.24
NB-An applied to at least one PSE program within five and a half years of assignment (%)
ALL LILE group Parents with high school or less Boys
*** ****** ***
Some evidence EYH+LA increased PSE enrolment: NB Anglophone students
*** **
-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00
ALL
LILE
FGF
Boys
Girls
Percentage point increase in PSE enrolment
Impact on ever enrolled in PSE by month 62
***
*****
EYH modestly increased graduation from high school - MB
EYH did not increase PSE applications - MB
Little evidence EYH increased PSE enrolment: MB students
*** **
-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00
ALL
LILE
FGF
Boys
Girls
Aboriginal
Percentage point increase in PSE enrolment
Impact on ever enrolled in PSE by month 62
*
Conclusion: The impact of the interventions differed by population and sub-groups Anglophone sector: significant impact on high school
graduation and application (demand)• Follow up for longer?
Francophone sector: no significant impact on graduation, but significant impact on post-secondary application and participation rates
Interventions typically increase access for boys Manitoba: not the type of program needed? EYH and EYH+LA increased university enrolment. LA
increased college enrolment. LA is forecast to be very cost effective, generating $2+
benefit per dollar cost to government, sensitive to discount rate
Take aways Interventions can make a difference to behaviour
• Youth can be susceptible to quite modest intervention to make potentially major changes in their lives
Work needed matching program to target group and system Cannot ignore supply More research neededLinked datasets, documentation prepared for Statistics Canada: Grade 9 (baseline) , Grade 12 and PSE3 YITS-style surveys Program management information High school and post-secondary records Financial aid receipt Transfer to Statistics Canada in next 2 months
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