Crafting the First Medium-term FILIPINO
Development Plan 2017-222
Rosemarie G. Edillon, PhD Deputy Director-General for Policy and Planning National Economic and Development Authority
Presentation Outline
I. Introduction and overview
II. The Life We Want
III. Realizing the Vision
Rosemarie G. Edillon, PhD Deputy Director-General for Policy and Planning National Economic and Development Authority
Competitive-ness of AIS
Indicators Baseline (2012)
2014 2015 2016
Gross Domestic Product (%)
6.8 6.5 -7.5 7.0-8.0 7.0-8.0
Unemployment rate (in %)
7.0 6.8 6.7 6.6
Underemployment rate (% of employed)
20.0 19.0 18.0 17.0
Poverty Incidence (% of population)
25.2 24.0 22.5 19.0
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
101
96
0
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
GDP in 2000 prices, trillion Php, 1960-2018
The Philippines has been on a higher growth trajectory since the beginning of the current decade…
Real GDP growth
6.2% (2010-2015)
7.6% (2010) 3.7% (2011) 6.7% (2012) 7.1% (2013) 6.2% (2014) 5.9% (2015)
Source: PSA
Structural break of potential real GDP at around 2009
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
… with most of the regional economies posting faster growth…
Source: PSA
5.8
1.7
5.5
4.0
8.1
6.8
2.3
4.7
5.9
9.7
(0.6)
4.6
6.3
5.5
4.9
10.3
2.1
7.5
4.3
6.3 6.3 6.7
5.9
3.9
6.2
4.1
8.1
1.1
5.3
6.3
8.0
7.4
8.0
3.4
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
NCR CAR I II III IVA IVB V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII ARMM
pe
rce
nt
ave gr 2010-2012 ave gr 2013-2014
Average real GDP growth by region (2000 prices)
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
…while some regions enjoyed a larger share of the economy.
Source: PSA
35.8
2.1 3.2
1.9
8.8
17.1
1.9 2.1
4.1
5.7
2.8 2.2
3.7 3.9
2.8
1.1 0.8
36.3
1.8 3.1
1.8
9.3
17.2
1.6 2.0
3.9
6.5
2.0 2.0
3.7 3.9 2.8
1.3 0.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
NCR CAR I II III IVA IVB V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII ARMM
2009 2014
Shar
e-t
o-G
DP
(%
)
Regional share in GDP
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2015 1Q2016
con
trib
uti
on
to
gro
wth
in p
pt
(%)
Agriculture Industry Services
Investment & industry are increasingly becoming major drivers of GDP growth…
2.8%
4.5%
6.2%
Ave. growth
Structural transformation is taking place
6.9% Supply Side Demand Side
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2015 1Q2016con
trib
uti
on
to
gro
wth
in p
pt
(%)
Consumption GovernmentInvestment Net exportsstatistical discrepancy
4.5%
6.2%
6.9%
2.8%
* as of Mar ’16 ** as of Mar ’16 *** as of Q3 2015
Headline and Core Inflation, Jan 2013- May 2016
Monetary and financial conditions fully support growth
Real Interest Rate and Non-performing Loans (NPLs),
2005- 2016
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5Ja
n-1
3Fe
b-1
3M
ar-1
3A
pr-
13
May
-13
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3Se
p-1
3O
ct-1
3N
ov-
13
Dec
-13
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
n-1
4Ju
l-1
4A
ug-
14
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4D
ec-1
4Ja
n-1
5Fe
b-1
5M
ar-1
5A
pr-
15
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5Se
p-1
5O
ct-1
5N
ov-
15
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6M
ay-1
6Core Inflation Headline Inflation
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NPL Ratio, LHS*Real interest rates, RHS**CAR, RHS***
Note: RHS – Right-hand scale ; LHS –Left-hand scale
Supporting this remarkable performance are sound macroeconomic fundamentals.
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Robust External Position
1070
2007
3215 3737
5740 5724
936
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Feb2016
Increasing Net FDI
Net FDI (US$ million)
26.5
2.9
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Positive Current Acct. & Declining External Debt
External Debt to GDP ratio - LHSCurrent Account to GDP Ratio - RHS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Continuous Remittances Amidst Slowdown in Deployment
Cash Remittances (US$mn), LHS
OF Deployment ('000), RHS
88.6
60.0
32.4
9.5 7.5 4.2 2.0
-1.2 -6.2
-8.4
TH TW PH IN VT SG CH ID KR MY
Average Growth of FDI, 2012-2015*
*Data for China and Vietnam cover years 2012-2014
Supporting this remarkable performance are sound macroeconomic fundamentals.
Our stronger fiscal position has been recognized, garnering an
investment-grade sovereign credit rating for the first time in our history. • Modest fiscal deficit; Declining Public debt & interest payments; Increasing
reliance on domestic financing • Result: resilient fiscal position
Fiscal side:
Fiscal Position
National Government Borrowing Program (%)
Share of expenditures allocated to interest payments
National gov’t outstanding debt (% of GDP)
64.6 65.6 65.2 83.6
93.9
72.1 69.0 54.5
84.0
35.4 34.4 34.8 16.4
6.1
27.9 31.0 45.5
16.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 as of Mar2016
2016Proposed
Domestic Foreign
39.4
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 as ofendApr
2016
13.9 17.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 as ofMar2016
(7.00)
(2.00)
3.00
8.00
13.00
18.00
Fiscal Position Revenue Effort Tax Effort
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
Our vibrant economy is producing more and better jobs... Unemployment and Underemployment rates (%) Employment Generated 2000- 2015 (‘000)
18.8
19.3
20.0
19.3
18.4 18.5
18.4
7.4
7.0 7.0 7.1
6.6
6.3
6.1
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014a/ 2015b/ Apr'2016c/
Un
emp
loym
ent
Rat
e
Un
der
emp
loym
ent
Rat
e
Underemployment (%) Unemployment (%)
3,782
3,448
4,310
183
50.3
51.9
56.7
59.3
62.1
45
50
55
60
65
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015c/ Apr'2016c/
Wag
e an
d S
alar
y W
ork
ers
(% in
To
tal E
mp
loym
ent)
Emp
loym
ent
Gen
erat
ed
Employment Generated ('000)Wage and Salary Worker (% in Total Employment)
Notes: a/ The FY 2014 LFS estimate is the average of April, July and Oct rounds excluding Leyte data b/ The FY 2015 LFS estimates is the average of the Jan to Oct 2015 rounds excluding Leyte data. FY 2015 employment generation estimate is the average of
April, July and Oct excluding Leyte data c/ Not comparable with previous rounds of LFS; break in the data series due to change sin the Master Sample Design. Starting April 2016, the LFS used the 2013
MS Design, the 2010 Census of Population and Housing(CPH)-based population projections and the 2012 Philippine Standard Occupation Classification (PSOC).
. *1997-2005: Adoption of population projection benchmark is based on the results of the 1995 Census **2006-2015: Adoption of population projection benchmark based on the results of the 2000 Census
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Growth-enhanced fiscal space has allowed major investments in infrastructure with spending on infrastructure more than tripling...
Source: Department of Budget and Management
Public infrastructure spending, Bn PhP and % of GDP
306.9 346.2
595.8
766.5 876.6 1018.7
2.7 2.7
4.3
5.0 5.2 5.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual (2013-2014)/Program(2015)/Proposed(2016)/Projections(2017-2018) Ratio to GDP (rhs)PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July
6-9, 2016,
…complemented by private investments in public infrastructure Status of PPP Projects (as of 10 May 2016)
Source: PPP Center National Economic and Development Authority
Projects by Status No. of Projects Amount (PHP bn)
Projects Under Implementation
Contract Awarded 12 196.53
Other projects under Implementation 2 106.73
PPP Pipeline
Projects under Procurement 15 579.76
For Approval of Relevant Government Bodies 5 101.94
For Evaluation of Concerned Agencies 1 536.03
Projects with Ongoing Studies 4 48.76
Projects Under Conceptualization/Development 14 NA
Total 53 1,569.75
*GAA 2015 Source: DBM, PSA-NSCB
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015*
Spending on Social Services Per Capita, Constant Prices
Education Health Social Security (incl. CCT) Housing Total Social Services (rhs)
Increased fiscal resources have also allowed greater public
investments in social services…
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Source: DSWD, BESF, DBM, NEDA-SDS
With the country’s CCT program (4Ps) being rapidly scaled up...
National Economic and Development Authority
0.34
0.78 1.00
2.32
3.11
3.80
4.30 4.35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CC
T B
ud
ge
t (i
n b
illi
on
pe
so
s)
CCT Budget (in billion pesos) CCT Household Beneficiaries (in millions)
Human capital: health outcomes are improving...
Selected Health Indicators: various years, 2000-2015
Source: 1/ For 2003, 2008, and 2013 data is from National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) and for 2001, 2006 and 2011, data is from the Family Health Survey (FHS). Please note that NDHS and FHS for the year identified covers period of 5 years prior to survey release | 2/National Nutrition Survey | 3/DOH | 4/APIS | 5/ PhilHealth | 6/Global TB Report WHO Note: a/ NHIP coverage rate ranges from 2011-2015, while the rest of the indicators range from 2011-2014.
48.9
50.7
55.1
63.9
62.2
72.8
37.9
44.2
61.1
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2000-2004 2005-2010 2011-2014
Contraceptiveprevalence rate(allmethods)(%)1
Proportion ofbirths attendedby healthprofessional(%)1
Proportion ofbirths deliveredin facility (%)1
78.7
84.8 85.5 82.9
92.5 94.1
51
92
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
2000-2004 2005-2010 2011-2015a/
Proportion ofpopulationwith access tosafe water(HH in %)4
Proportion ofpopulationwith access tosanitary toilet(HH in %)4
NationalHealthInsuranceProgram(NHIP)coverage rate(in %)5
Human capital: as well as education outcomes...
Primary Education: various years, 2000-2015 Secondary Education: various years, 2000-2015
Source: Department of Education Note: a/ Latest data for Dropout Rate is 2014.
90.60 85.47
94.90
69.62 73.70
77.73
68.41 71.67
75.57
6.95 6.40 5.40
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015
In p
erce
nt
Participation Rate (or Net Enrolment Rate)Cohort Survival RateCompletion RateDropout Rate
60.01 59.59 64.22
75.19 76.54 79.19
71.89 71.59 75.61
8.33 8.78 7.37
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015
In p
erce
nt
Participation Rate (or Net Enrolment Rate)Cohort Survival RateCompletion RateDropout Rate
Source: Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)
We are finally seeing greater inroads against poverty.
14.2
13.3 13.4
12.1
28.8 28.6 27.9
26.3
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
2006S1 2009S1 2012S1 2015S1
Pove
rty
(% o
f p
op
ula
tio
n)
Sub
sist
ence
(%
of
po
pu
lati
on
)
Subsistence (% of population) Poverty (% of population)
Poverty Statistics, First Semester (%)
Poverty Statistics, Full Year (%)
12.0
10.9 10.4
26.5 26.3
25.2
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
2006 2009 2012
Pove
rty
(% o
f p
op
ula
tio
n)
Sub
sist
ence
(%
of
po
pu
lati
on
)
Subsistence (% of population) Poverty (% of population)PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Competitive-ness of AIS
Indicators Baseline (2012)
2014 2015 2016
Gross Domestic Product (%)
6.7 6.1 5.8
Unemployment rate (in %)
7.0 6.6* 6.3*
Underemployment rate (% of employed)
20.0 18.4* 18.5*
Poverty Incidence (S1) (% of population)
27.9 26.3
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Competitive-ness of AIS
UNFINISHED BUSINESS
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
• A long-term (25 years) vision for the Philippines.
• A basis for unity among Filipinos.
• It is a vision, NOT a plan.
• An anchor for development planning across administrations.
• A guide for engaging with international development partners.
The Long-term Vision (LTV) process Survey
FGD 1. Advisory Committee
• composed of representatives from the government, private sector, the academe, and civil society guided the overall implementation of the visioning exercise
2. Public consultations • 42 FGDs with marginalized groups (C. David) • National Survey (n=10,000; PSRC)
3. Technical studies • Thematic study team organized (led by Dr. R. Clarete)
4. Communication & advocacy • Online social media engagement • Public forums
The Life We Want
An overwhelming majority of Filipinos aspire for a simple and comfortable life…
3.9% Life of the rich
79.2%
Simple & comfortable life
16.9% Affluent life
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Matatag, maginhawa at panatag na buhay para sa lahat
• Widely-shared common vision for self and for the country
• Motivation for aspirations is family
• A comfortable life with the family, free of hardship and worry
• Families create vibrant and resilient communities
What is a simple & comfortable life?
73% All children are college-educated
62% Own one car
21% Able to take occasional trips around the country
73% Earning enough
61% Own a medium-sized
home
61% Have enough money for day-to-day needs
Business owner
30% Relax with family and friends
30%
What is a simple & comfortable life?
10,000 All children are
college-educated
5,000 Own one car
6,000 Able to take occasional
trips around the country
P 120,000 Gross Monthly Income
30,000 Own a medium-sized
home
40,000 Have enough money
for day-to-day needs
Income Tax
25,000
Relax with family
and friends
4,000
EDUCATION: Most preferred field of study (among those who have not finished college)
10% Engineering and
technology
10% Law and
jurisprudence
6.9% Medical
and allied
6.7% Trade, craft and
industrial
4.8% Maritime
16.5% Education science and
teacher training
12.7% Business administration
and related fields
11.6% IT related
10.5% Tourism and hospitality
Desired Occupation
Employer in own family-operated farm or business
Self-employed without any paid
employee
Work for private establishment
Work for government or government
corporation
Work with pay in own family-operated farm
or business
Work for private household
47% 22% 20%
20% 13% 18%
Good salary (enough wages, paid regularly), having a business with good revenue
Benefits and incentives (insurance, retirement)
Job stability or security
Secure income from a decent job
OCCUPATION: Many want to be entrepreneurs but want stable and regular source of income and insurance
DWELLING: Most respondents choose to live in houses with large lots, yet majority prefer to live in cities
73% selected the small
house with a big lot
14% chose the big house
with a small lot
Preferred community to live in
29% prefer to live in a small city in the province
30% prefer to live in a big city
like Manila
30% prefer to live in the town center in the province
79% want to live within
the same city where they work
14% want to work in a
big city but go home outside the
city
7% want to work and
live outside the city
Location preferences for work and home indicate that Filipinos generally want to work where family is within reach.
88%
Want to work in the Philippines
FINANCES: Majority want enough money for daily needs
• Enough for day-to-day needs (61%)
• With savings for unexpected expenses (28%), particularly related to sudden illness, natural hazards and man-made calamities
• Savings will also be used to buy car, build house, support retirement
Filipinos want to be mobile.
• Mobility in day-to-day living and for leisure is important to Filipinos • Ordinary people’s measure of their own success is the degree to which they are able to
afford travel for themselves and their families • Traveling within the country and to other countries is the most-frequently cited leisure
activity. • Car ownership is part of many families’ vision of their future
77% Own car/vehicle
23% Good public transportation
Majority of Filipinos prefer to use own car to go to places.
Question: In the year 2040, would you prefer to
have your own car to go to places you need to go
to or use a good public transportation system?
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Vision of Filipinos for Self
“In 2040, we will all enjoy a stable and comfortable lifestyle, secure in the knowledge that we have enough for our daily
needs and unexpected expenses, that we can plan and prepare for our own and our children’s future. Our family lives together in a place of our own, and we have the freedom to go where we
desire, protected and enabled by a clean, efficient, and fair government."
64
51
50
38
36
36
17
10
No one is hungry
All Filipinos have a chance for adequate job locally
No one is poor
Everyone can go to college
Everyone can get treatment when sick
All Filipino families have their own house
Everyone has modern lifestyle
The country is a world leader in science and technology
Vision for the country: Hunger, local employment and poverty are the main economic issues that should be addressed
Base: Total Interviews unwtd/wtd (10000/10000)
I have here statements that people say are important for our economy). Which of the following is the most important condition the country
should attain in the year 2040 (RANK 1)? Which is the second most important (RANK 2)? Which is the third most important (RANK 3)? PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July
6-9, 2016,
Clean, efficient, and service-oriented Government
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Base: Total Interviews unwtd/wtd (10000/10000)
82
76
74
72
72
69
16
22
24
26
25
28
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
Eradication of Corruption
Fair enforcement of the law
Fast and easy processes
Order and Safety in the Community
Fast response towards problems andcomplaints
Enough avenues to be able to ask for help
Definitely important Slightly important
Slightly not important Definitely not important
IMPORTANT NOT
IMPORTANT
NET
IMPORTANCE
98 2 96
98 2 96
98 2 96
97 3 94
97 3 94
97 3 94
Eradication of corruption is the most important aspect of government service that should be addressed
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
“The Philippines shall be a country where all citizens are free from hunger and poverty, have equal opportunities,
enabled by fair and just society that is governed with order and unity. A nation where families live together, thriving in
vibrant, culturally diverse, and resilient communities.”
Vision of Filipinos for Country
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Realizing the Vision
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
The Life We Want
Matatag • Living together with family • Time with family and friends
(work/life balance)
Panatag • Resources adequate for day-to-
day needs and unexpected expenses
• Security of place • Passive income during
retirement
Maginhawa • Freedom from hunger • and poverty • Guaranteed mobility • Secure home ownership • Travel and vacation
opportunities
Matatag, Maginhawa at Panatag na Buhay
10,000 All children are
college-educated
5,000 Own one car
6,000 Able to take occasional
trips around the country
P 120,000 Gross Monthly Income
30,000 Own a medium-sized
home
40,000 Have enough money
for day-to-day needs
Income Tax
25,000
Relax with family
and friends
4,000
With the right policies, PHL can be nearly a high-income country by 2040
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
What does $11,000 per capita income mean?
MALAYSIA
Poverty rate
0.6%
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Poverty can be eradicated by 2040, if not sooner.
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Requires support and
commitment from the
next 4 Administrations
The challenge of sustaining the vision
Not all achievable
immediately/
simultaneously
Need to
sustain the
momentum
Strategic flexibility
under changing
conditions
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Goals: Matatag, Maginhawa, Panatag na buhay
In 2040, the Philippines will be
• A prosperous, predominantly middle-class society; income will have tripled from its base in 2015 and no one is poor;
• A healthy society with life expectancy at birth of at least 80 years;
• A smart and innovative society, and
• A high trust society.
How do we achieve the vision?
• We need to create a responsive, adaptive, resilient, and inclusive
economy driven by productivity growth to create more and better
quality jobs
• Productivity growth and resiliency can happen with:
1. Competitive enterprises generating high quality jobs
2. Agile and nimble high-quality workforce
3. Comprehensive and enabling social policy including social protection
4. Efficiently managed natural resource and environment
5. Citizen-centered, responsive, and accountable government
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Consumption and Labor Income vs Age, Philippines
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+
Tho
usa
nd
s
Age
Per Capita Values, Local Currency (Thousands)
Consumption Labor Income
1. Competitive enterprises generating high quality jobs
• Sufficient high-quality infrastructure, which will make the cost of
moving people, goods and services competitive.
• Sound urban development that takes advantage of scale and
agglomeration economies to make our cities more competitive
and livable.
• Adequate and inclusive financing for small and medium
enterprises and households.
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Housing and Urban Development Construction
Construction-related manufacturing
Housing development-related manufacturing
Utilities (EGW)
Priority Sectors
Connectivity Roads and bridges Port Airport Transport (cars) Communication
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Priority Sectors
Education Services Formal education Re-tooling services
Tourism-related services Financial services Consumer financing Enterprise financing Insurance Savings mobilization
Health services Agricultural development Countryside development
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
2. Agile and nimble high-quality workforce
• An education system that equips citizens with
knowledge necessary to occupy high-productivity
employment, while remaining adaptable to changing
needs of the economy.
• An economy that is highly capable of generating and
using technology and innovation.
• A work force that is resilient to income and
employment shocks.
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
http://www.consultancy.uk/news/1734/wef-bcg-students-lack-skills-needed-in-21st-century PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July
6-9, 2016,
3. Comprehensive and enabling social policy including social protection
• Easy access to quality health care
• Comprehensive social policy to empower individuals to
achieve aspirations
• Robust resiliency-building strategies
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Matatag, Maginhawa at Panatag na Buhay
10,000 All children are
college-educated
5,000 Own one car
6,000 Able to take occasional
trips around the country
P 120,000 Gross Monthly Income
30,000 Own a medium-sized
home
40,000 Have enough money
for day-to-day needs
Income Tax
25,000
Relax with family
and friends
4,000
3,000C
20,000
12,000
1,000
3,000
13,000 P 57,000
Comprehensive and Enabling Social Policy
5,000C
Source: UNFPA, A Value Proposition for the Demographic Dividend. http://esaro.unfpa.org/sites/esaro/files/pub-pdf/UNFPA%20-%20Demographic%20Dividend%20Value%20Proposition.pdf Accessed: 6 May 2016
Comprehensive and Enabling Social Policy
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
4. Efficiently managed natural resources and environment
• A competitive and sustainable energy mix
• Natural resources sustainably and responsibly used for development
• Resilient communities protected from risks arising from natural hazards and
climate change.
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
5. Citizen-centered, responsive, and accountable government
Fiscal Policy
Monetary Policy
Regulatory Policy
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Fiscal Policy Sound macroeconomic fundamentals
Strategic fiscal spending program including
tax and nontax investment incentive program to address capacity constraints,
increase competitiveness,
encourage innovation,
reduce inequality,
build up resiliency
What will it take?
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Monetary and Financial Policy Low and stable inflation rate Monetary policy that is supportive of
growth Financial inclusion
What will it take?
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
Regulatory Policy Promote competition (ease of entry, level
playing field) Reduce externalities Reduce the cost of doing business Ensure consumer protection Ensure justice, security and peace
What will it take?
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
2016-2022
2023-2028
2029-2034
2035-2040
• Requires strong ownership and buy-in by stakeholders and the
country’s leaders over the next 25 years
• Each plan must build on previous plan, not change it
unnecessarily
• Needs and preferences may change over time
• Unexpected developments may arise (e.g. climate, science &
technology)
From vision to action
2016-2022
2023-2028
2029-2034
2035-2040
From vision to action
A prosperous,
predominantly middle-
class society; income will
have tripled from its base
in 2015 and no one is
poor;
A healthy society with life
expectancy at birth of at
least 80 years;
A smart and innovative
society, and
A high trust society.
2016-2022
2023-2028
2029-2034
2035-2040
A prosperous, predominantly middle-class society; income will have tripled from its base in 2015 and no one is poor;
Inclusive growth; reduce inequality; reduce poverty in all dimensions; Factor-driven growth in G1; transition to efficiency-driven in G2
Inclusive growth; reduce inequality; reduce poverty in all dimensions; eradicate Extreme poverty; transition to efficiency-driven in G1; efficiency-driven growth in G2
Rapid growth; reduce inequality; eradicate poverty; efficiency-driven growth in G1; transition to knowledge-driven growth in G2
Sustain rapid growth; reduce inequality; promote knowledge- Driven growth
2016-2022
2023-2028
2029-2034
2035-2040
A healthy society with life expectancy at birth of at least 80 years;
Reduce IMR, U5MR, MMR, malnutrition rate, morbidity due to CD, access to health care
Reduce morbidity due to NCD; access to health care
Promote healthy lifestyle, access to health care
Promote healthy lifestyle, access to health care
2016-2022
2023-2028
2029-2034
2035-2040
A smart and innovative society
Continue education reforms in K-12, begin reforms in higher educ Increase access to educ (K-12, higher ed); promote technology adoption
Access to educ, increase learning opportunities; increase tech adoption
Improve IPR framework; improve learning opportunities
Sustain learning opportunities;
encourage R&D, creativity and
innovation
2016-2022
2023-2028
2029-2034
2035-2040
A high trust society
Build trust in government; enforce peace and order; resume peace talks; Create social and cultural awareness
Promote harmony in diversity; maintain peace and order; Promote national unity; create national brand
Maintain harmony in diversity; maintain peace and order; Maintain national unity; Cultivate national pride
Citizens living in peace and harmony; Proud of their national identity
A people-centered vision leads to people-centered policies
Vision
1st Medium-Term Plan
2nd Medium-Term Plan
3rd Medium-Term Plan
4th Medium-Term Plan
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,
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