May 2014
Paving the Way for Future Growth in Global Air Travel
Coskun KILIC, Chief Financial Officer, Turkish Airlines
May 2014
2014 World Aviation Market Size: 745 Billion $
Source: IATA (2013), Boeing CMO (2013)
Global Transfer Market
265 Bn $ (2014)
340 Bn $ (2019)
THY Potential Transfer Market
117 Bn $ (2014)
150 Bn $ (2019)
ME
FE 124 19
11
93
130
8
AF
NA
EU
10.0%
50.1%
3.8%
10.2%
22.4% 3.6%
60% of Global International Pax is Carried by European and Middle Eastern Airlines
May 2014
Source: IATA (2013), ICAO Annual 2012
Gulf Carriers
May 2014
Turkish Airlines European Carriers ALL - 2014 ALL - 2019
Airline Networks Aiming the Same Transfer Market
Gulf Carriers
Source: OAG
May 2014
What Differentiates is «Who has a real base?» (p2p traffic)
UK
GDP (bn $) 2,536
Population (mn) 63
PAX/Population 3.2
LHR Tranfer Ratio 25%
Source: DHMI, MIDT, UN Population Division
FRANCE
GDP (bn $) 2,737
Population (mn) 64
PAX/Population 2.1
CDG Tranfer Ratio 31%
GERMANY
GDP (bn $) 3,636
Population (mn) 83
PAX/Population 2.2
FRA Tranfer Ratio 46%
TURKEY
GDP (bn $) 827
Population (mn) 75
PAX/Population 1.3
IST Tranfer Ratio 47%
QATAR
GDP (bn $) 17
Population (mn) 2
PAX/Population 8.4
Doha Tranfer Ratio 69%
UAE
GDP (bn $) 396
Population (mn) 9
PAX/Population 6.4
LHR Tranfer Ratio 53%
Abu D. Transfer R. 67%
PAX/Population Ratio
N. America 2.3
Europe 1.1
Middle East 0.6
L. America 0.4
Asia 0.3
Africa 0.1
World 0.4
May 2014
May 2014
New Hubs Carriers Will Emerge in Asia and Carry 34% of all World Traffic.
Increase in Middle Income Class
Emerging Hubs
Source : OECD
2009 2030
(mn) % (mn) %
N. America 338 18% 322 7%
Europe 664 36% 680 14%
Central/South America 181 10% 313 6%
Asia-Pacific 525 28% 3,228 66%
Sub-Saharan Africa 32 2% 107 2%
MENA 105 6% 234 5%
World 1,845 100% 4,884 100%
CHINA
GDP (bn $) 9.181
Population (mn) 1.386
PAX/Population 0.2
INDIA
GDP (bn $) 1.893
Population (mn) 1.252
PAX/Population 0.1
2009
2030
May 2014
The Number of Main Aviation Centers for Long-haul Traffic will More Than Double
(*): Cities with more than 10,000 daily round trip long-haul passengers
2013 (42 cities)
2031 (92 cities)
92 Aviation
Mega-cities (2031)
Turkish Airlines Flies to 207 International Destinations in 105 Countries: #1 in the World
May 2014
Today Planned
Europe & CIS 96 +11
Middle East 33 +2
Africa 38 +12
Far East 31 +2
America 9 +7
TOTAL 207 +34
2002 THY Network
Planned Destinations (5 years)
2003 - 2014 Destinations
21,7
15,8
8,2
8,48
6.5
5,3
3
7
11
15
19
23
Short-Medium Haul Long Haul
May 2014
(*): Base Year for Exchange Rate: 2012
Base Year for C.P.I.: 1991
Average Stage Lenght: Short-Medium Haul: 1100 km, Long Haul: 6500 km
Passenger Yields are Falling as the Industry is Reshaping
Airline Passenger Yields*
Short/Medium Haul (NB)
Network Carriers capacity
expansion
1 LCC capacity expansion
3 Long Haul (WB) Network
Carriers capacity expansion
2
USD/RPK
Source: AEA S.T.A.R / 2013
May 2014
RASK vs Stage Lenght (2013)
km
Usc
THY
EU Average
LCC Average ME Average
US Average
Asia Average
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000
May 2014
CASK vs Stage Lenght (2013)
km
Usc
THY
LCC Average
ME Average
EU Average
US Average
Asia Average
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000
May 2014
Turkish Airlines Targets for the Next 5 Years
18% Average EBITDAR Margin with 10% Average Annual Revenue Growth
22% 19%
17% 16%
13% 12%
LCC Average THY MEAverage Asia Average US Average EU Average
2013 EBITDAR Margin Comparison
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
8,0%
9,0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 2014
Center of Aviation is Shifting East and Changing Balances
Global Market Share Trends (in ASK)
4.8% 4.6% 3.6% 3.4% 2.9% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6%
Source: 2002 ICAO, 2003- 2013 IATA, sorted by the highest 12M ASK values
May 2014
Turkish Airlines Will Be Financing 255 Aircraft in the Next 8 Years
7 14 11
3
3
18 34
6
47 40
62
10
10
32
45
9
47
40
62
10
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Wide Body Narrow Body
47 55 68 79 80 80 79 76 76
193 201 207
237 232 262
294 341 349
249 263 282
323 319 349
380
424 432
Today 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Wide Body Narrow Body Cargo
Year End Fleet Aircraft Orders
Tax Leveraged Product
Bank Loan
Jolco
Operating Lease
Owned
Sukuk
Corporate Bond
EETC
May 2014
Further Diversification is Key to Future Aircraft Financing
TODAY FUTURE
USD 44%
EUR 38%
JPY 18%
Tax Leveraged Product
23%
Bank Loan 20%
Jolco 18%
Operating Lease 23%
Owned 16%
May 2014
Thank You COSKUN KILIC , CFO
TURKISH AIRLINES
Tel: +90 (212) 463-6363 x-13630
E-Mail: [email protected]
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