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ASA:Actions
Strategies Actors
A decision support
evaluation model
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Introduction
Problems with composite (strategic) plans:– How actions and projects should be activated,
in which order, where to begin with?– What are the flagship or “hub” projects?– How to relation them to relevant actors
(political “arena”)?– What is the implementation strategy?
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Evaluation criteria
• Evaluate projects with respect to 3 criteria:
1. Actors’ interest
2. Projects’ relevance
3. Cost
Actors’ interestBased on:
Influence factor Effort factor
Actors’ interest
• measures how important an actor if for the realisation of a project
• Expressed on an qualitative ordinal scale: “key actor (activator)”, “compulsory actor”, “influent actor”, “marginally influent actor”, “non-influent actor”
• measures the willingness to invest (in wide sense) in a project
• Expressed on an numeric ratio scale
Overall interest for a project (aggregation):Weighted mean of efforts, using influences as weights
Relevance criterion
• Effectiveness of sequences of projects with regard to plan’s objectives
• Considers:• “direct” relevance• Interdependencies (synergies)
• Calculus based on the estimation of relevance of every pair or projects:
• relevance of a simple two-projects sequence: r(i,j)
• Relevance of a longer sequence
1
1
1
1 1
),(
),,1(n
l
n
i
n
ijdef
l
jir
nnr
Relevance criterion
Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 Project 4
r(1,2)
r(1,3)r(1,4)
r(3,4)
r(2,3)
r(2,4)
6
)4,3()4,2()3,2()4,1()3,1()2,1(4)4,3,2,1(
rrrrrrr
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Costs criterion
• Considers:
1. Economical and financial technical costs
2. The possibility/probability of “external” financing
• may depend on the level or agreement among actors
Possible evaluation
Relevance
Costs
Interest
3 criteria – 3 dimensions
Possible evaluationsInteractive exploration of the solution spaceSearch based on filters and constraints on costs, relevance, interest, etc.
Possible evaluations
Possible evaluationsAncillary results: veto power of actors on the overall plans’ objectives
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Reporting tool• export in pdf,
html (for web publishing)
• Export in csv for further analysis
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Salient aspects• 3 criteria covers 3 fundamental dimensions of
decision-making• works on and with sequences of projects
(trying to cope with potential synergic effects)• Some levels of sophistication but still
transparent, understandable and accountable• Interactive exploration of solution space, with
no final aggregation in a single utility function
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