Comparative Transitions to DemocracyUniversity Masaryk in Brno
Unit V. The Development of the “Transitology”: Classic Transitions to
Democracy in the 1970 and 1980s
Lecturer: Oscar Hidalgo-RedondoDate: 28 April 2009
5.1 The Collapse of the Second Democratising Wave
Second wave: since 1945post-WWII democratisation
countries that lost the warcountries that need to regenerate political
structuresnew countries
2 different scenariosscenarios of success
post-fascist regimesregeneration of democratic structures
scenarios of collapsenew regimesauthoritarianism and violence
By 1960, the dream of worldwide extension of democracy was overcollapse of new-born democracies
Difficult processCold War scenario
internal forces divided: civil warsfriendly rogues
Regional dynamicsde-stabilising focus
Economic performancebroken promises of democracydissatisfaction
Lack of democratic maturitypolitical cultures’ compatibility with democracyelite behaviours
In 1960 many countries that initiated a process of changeaborted democratisationin 1960 democratic recession
5.2 Scenarios for Democratisation in the 1970s
Third wave of democratisation will begin in the 1970sin European authoritarian regimes
maturationexhaustion lack of legitimacy
Portugal, Greece and Spaindifferent contexts
length of authoritarian regimelong, Portugal and Spainshort, Greece
type of rulermilitary, Spain and Greececivilian, Portugal
sharing one common elementsocieties’ maturity and support of democracy
Transitions will be differentPortugal and Greece, revolutionary characterSpain, transaction
Transitions different from the Second waveinternal leadsocieties demand democratisation
Transitions are studiedgenerate models of regime transformation“science” of the transition
to be applied to other cases
From Southern Europeto Latin America
Bolivia 1982 Brazil 1985 Paraguay 1989 Ecuador 1979Argentina 1983 Peru 1979 Chile 1990 Uruguay 1985
to other continentsAfricaAsiaEastern Europe
Third wave transitions become the theoretical benchmark to study processes of democratisation
5.3 Democracy in the Third Wave
Subsequent waves of democracy have expanded the understanding of democracy
long cycle, political rightssecond wave, social rightsthird wave, 3 generation rights
“post-modern”, “post-materialist” rightscultural rightsenvironmental protectionconsumers’ rights
adding advances registered in the most developed states
New stage in the history of constitutionalismdeepening the understanding of the meaning of
democracyfrom the politicalto the non-political
Democratisation as a process with an internal drivevs. second wave, external
transitions as a response to internal developmentsexternal factors as catalysers
not the ingredients of the transitiondemocratisation as a result to internal maturity
study of the elements that must be present for a process of democratisation to exist
Democracy as an internal dialogue between relevant political actors within the societies
elite in poweropposition leadersthe masses
need of study this relationsguides for success (democratic engineering)
5.4 Modes of Transition in the Third Wave
Focused on the way in which the transfer of power was carried outled by the old elitetaken by the democratisers
Transition as ruptureold elite loses control of the situation
regime does not reproduces its legitimacynew regime is demanded a change
ends with old elite being toppledGreece, Portugal
Transition as a transactionthe quota of power of the old elite is very strong
still in position to negotiateagreement old regime and opposition
Spain
5.5 Transitions as Rupture: Portugal
Salazar’s Portugal Salazar is an academic
traditionalistcountryside, traditional society
conservativeanti-communistreligious
Catholic morals
reach to power after the collapse of the I Republic in 1926disorderdissatisfaction with the performance of the state
military dictatorship1928 Minister of Economy, economic crisis
academic1932 President of Council of Ministers
saviour, redemptory figuresave the state from collapsetake Portugal to success
support for his project: a New State (Estado Novo)
The “New State”union under the leadership of the leader
figure of the “father of the nation”traditionalism: “Deus, Pátria e Familia”state working as a body
corporatism, union of the powers of the state1 party, National Unionsocial organisations
through the staterepression (PVDE-PIDE), enemies of the statepropaganda
1960s, Decline of Salazar’s regimefailed promises of developmentlack of democracycolonial question
India, Goa, Daman, DiuAngola, Cabo Verde, Mozambique
Salazar’s illness
1968 Salazar for is substituted by Marcelo CaetanoCaetano, a gray profile
academic, no popularitymanaging economic crisis
colonial problems social unrest
disintegration of the regime in 1970s
Revolution from within the regimearmy sectors (middle low officers: Captains) coup d’etat
25 April 1974, occupation of strategic pointspopulation supports the army
Movimento das Forças Armadas (MFA) democratising planelections within 1 year
Caetano’s regime crumbles down
National Salvation Junta, military presence1974-5 a turbulent period
Communist Party and revolutionary officersdrive towards socialism
Moderate forces, maintain a democratic order
Division in the armyhierarchyrevolutionary officers
Social confrontationNorth, conservativeSouth, revolutionary
25 April 1975 Constitutional Assembly electionstriumph of moderates, 70% votes for moderatesdraft of new constitution
not fully democratic, threat of revolutionary army
reserves of powerCouncil of the Revolution
1976 Parliamentary regular elections75% votes for constitutionalistsrevolutionaries losing positions
1982 reform of the constitutioncouncil of the revolution
5.6 Transitions as Transaction: Spain
1939 creation of the regimeinfluenced by Fascist regimes and Salazar
corporatist state, led by a central figure: Francisco Franconot very charismaticmilitary man, hierarchy
Evolution in Franco’s regime1939-1954 isolationism, autarky
repressionWWII, “No-belligerence” policyBlockade
economic stagnationscarcity
Cooperation with USAUN membership 1955
1955-1960s “desarrollismo”technocrats, Opus Dei1959 plan of development with WB and IMF
1960s tensionshard-liners (bunker)reformers
1970s weakening of the regimeeconomic crisis, return of emigrantspolitical contestationhealth of Franco
1975 death and transition
Late 1960s Franco realises the debility of his regimemore contestationtransformation of the Spanish societyeconomic difficultiessickness and age
1969 Succession Law King Juan Carlos to become king
attempt to unify the moderate forcesbut Franco was not planning a transition
1973 death of the admiral Carrero BlancoFranco’s selected candidate to rule after him
November 1975 Franco diedKing Juan Carlos I head of state
but surrounded by Francoite officialshardliners, Government leader Arias Navarroreformers, vice-secretary of the Movimiento
Adolfo SuarezJuan Carlos I substituted the Arias for Suarez
alliance Suarez-King Juan Carlos
unite moderate Francoite sectors moderate reformers
regime is not dismantled by a revolutionbut the Francoite assembly finished with the regime
1976 Law for the Political Reform15 December Referendum
Suarez is able to convince main actors of the need of the pact
leaders of democratic partiesmoderates in the Movimiento
1977 free elections for constitutional assemblyPCE legalised
First elections triumph of the moderatesUCD of Suarez 35%PSOE of Gonzalez 30%PCE 9%AP 9%
Constitutional assembly, 1978 democratic constitution
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