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14 JULY – 18 JULY 2014

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

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MAJOR EVENTS MCX Gold futures are trading with losses today as traders booked some profits after

massive gains in last two sessions. The yellow metal rallied in global markets on

worries pertaining to the Portugal banking troubles. A rather disappointing decision

by India to not cut import duties on the yellow metal also boosted sentiments as the

COMEX Gold ran up to its four month highs near $1350 per ounce. The metal is

quoting at 1338 per ounce, down 1.20 per ounce on the day. MCX Gold is trading at Rs

28370 per 10 grams, down Rs 126 per 10 grams on the day. The MCX Gold futures

shot up on the twin effects of rally in global prices and a status quo on gold import

duties. The benchmark MCX Gold futures for August soared well above Rs 28000 per

10-gram levels. Buying picked up after this critical level was broken in a flash. The

metal has generally had a good week, amid expectations the Federal Reserve will keep

rates on hold for an extended period of time after the bank's bond-buying program

ends. On data event, US initial jobless claims and continuing claims are slated to

release later today. According to the minutes of its June meeting revealed on

Wednesday, the Federal Reserve plans to completely unwind its asset purchase plan

in October as long the economy continues to pick up.

New U.S. pipelines and a revival in Libyan supply are increasing the likelihood that oil

prices will slump through year-end after climbing in the first six months.

Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg predict West Texas Intermediate oil will

average $100 a barrel in the fourth quarter, down 5.1 percent from June 30, while

Brent drops 4.8 percent to $107. Violence in Iraq sent Brent to $115.71 in June, its

highest level since September, on concern supplies would be disrupted.

Brent is poised to decline in part on increased output in Libya as key export terminals

were reopened. In the U.S., traders are focused on supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma,

the delivery point for the WTI futures contract. Tallgrass Energy Partners LP plans to

complete the conversion of the Pony Express pipeline to carry crude to Cushing from

Wyoming. Enbridge Inc.’s Flanagan South will connect to the hub from Illinois.

Prepare for Oil to

Keep Falling on

Libya to U.S.

Supply

Copper Drops in

London as

Demand in China

Seen Weakening.

Copper declined in London for the fourth time this week as inventories expanded amid

signs of lower demand for the metal as loan collateral in China, the world’s biggest

user.

Stockpiles in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained for the

third straight week to the highest since June 5. China’s imports of unwrought copper

and copper products fell in June to the lowest since April 2013, data showed

yesterday. Inbound shipments will weaken in July amid the Qingdao port probe into

inventories used in financing.

“Copper looks a bit toppy to us, and we would not be surprised to see a modest

retrenchment heading into next week,”.Copper for delivery in three months fell 0.1

percent to settle at $7,156 a metric ton ($3.25 a pound) at 5:50 p.m. on the London

Metal Exchange. Zinc rose in London, capping a fourth straight weekly advance that

was the longest rally since mid-April. Stockpiles monitored by the LME fell to the

lowest since December 2010. Nickel, aluminum, lead and tin also gained in London.On

the Comex in New York, copper futures for September delivery rose 0.1 percent to

$3.269 a pound.

MCX Gold Eases

After Recent

Rally, Profit

Selling Hurts

Sentiments.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

July 15 6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.1%

6:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.3%

6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 17.4 19.3

6:00pm Import Prices m/m 0.5% 0.1%

7:30pm Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

7:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.6% 0.6%

July 16 6:00pm PPI m/m 0.2% -0.2%

6:00pm Core PPI m/m 0.3% -0.1%

6:30pm TIC Long-Term Purchases 27.4B -24.2B

6:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate 79.4% 79.1%

6:45pm Industrial Production m/m 0.4% 0.6%

7:30pm Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 51 49

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -2.4M

9:30pm FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

11:30pm Beige Book

July 17 6:00pm Building Permits 1.04M 0.99M

6:00pm Unemployment Claims 310K 304K

6:00pm Housing Starts 1.02M 1.00M

7:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 15.6 17.8

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 93B

July 18 7:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 83.5 82.5

7:25pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%

7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.6% 0.5%

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

28130 27810 27450 28680 29025 29390

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

45550 44300 42945 46600 47880 49155

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed bullish movement

on budget day due to unchanged

import duty and also gave the

breakout of trendline and closed above

61.8% retracement. Now, if it

maintains above 28600 then next

resistance may be seen around 29000.

On other hand if it sustains below

28150 then bearish movement may

take it towards the next support level

of 27800.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

above 28600 for the targets of 29000-

29500 with stop loss of 27850.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R


MCX SILVER on daily charts last week

traded around upper band of channel

pattern and gave breakout on Indian

Union Budget session. Now if this bull

rally continues and maintains above

46400 then next hurdle is seen around

38.2% retracement i.e. 47300 above

which 48350 will seen as major

resistance. Contrary if some correction

happens on lower side then 45300 will

act as important support level.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to buy on dips for the

target of 47000-47400, with stop loss of

44900.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

6015 5935 5860 6160 6255 6350

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

430.50 423.15 415.30 438.15 444.45 451.40


MCX Copper on daily charts showed

choppy movement, and traded around

38.2% retracement i.e. 438. Now, if

bullish movement continues and

maintains above 438 then next

resistance is seen around 446. On

other hand if some correction occurs

then 433 will act as important support

for it below this next support level is

seen around 425.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell

on highs for the targets of 5950-5900, with

stop loss of 6220.

PIVOT TABLE


MCX Crude oil showed downward

movement and major trendline has

been broken and market closed below

the trendline . Now, if it sustain below

this trend line then market can

countiune downward movement to

the 5935 it is a major bottom and

market is holding this support from the

starting of year 2014. If market will

correct to upside then it will found

resistance at 6184.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy

above 439, with stop loss of 429 for the

targets of 447-450.

PIVOT TABLE


DISCLAIMER