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Markets performanceUnits Apr-2011 % chg
(MoM)% chg
(Year todate)
Vegetable oilsSBO @ CBOT US c/ lb 58.13 -1.11% 0.68%CPO @ BMD MYR / T 3,270.00 -1.68% -13.67%RBD Olein, FOB, Mly US$ /T 1,197.50 1.91% -4.39%SBO, FOB, Arge US$ /T 1,209.00 -2.97% -4.80%Sunoil, Ex NWE /T 1,400.00 2.19% -6.04%Rapeoil, FOB, Dutch /T 975.00 -4.88% -10.55%CPO, cif, Rotterdam /T 1,142.50 -1.51% -11.09%CSBO degummed, Ex NWE /T 862.00 -9.26% -16.55%
Softs and Plantations
Sugar 11 @ ICE USc /lb 23.38 -13.76% -27.21%
Rubber @ TOCOM JPY /kg 389.10 -9.97% -6.13%
Cocoa @ ICE US$ /T 3,390.00 14.84% 11.70%
Coffee C @ ICE USc /lb 299.35 13.33% 24.47%Tea, Best BP1, Kenya US$/Kg 3.40 0.00% -9.09%
Energy and Metals
Crude oil @ NYMEX US$ /barrel 113.93 6.76% 24.68%
Gold spot US$ /troy oz 1,563.60 9.34% 10.16%
Silver spot US$ /oz 47.95 27.53% 55.38%
Copper @ LME US$ /T 9,320.00 -1.15% -2.92%
Aluminum @ LME US$ /T 2,767.50 4.51% 12.04%
Zinc @ LME US$ /T 2,247.00 -4.87% -8.44%
Indices
DJIA 12,810.50 3.98% 10.65%
FTSE 100 6,069.90 2.73% 2.88%
Strait times 3,179.86 2.38% -0.32%
S&P GSCI 758.80 4.57% 20.09%
Currencies
US Dollar Index 72.9330 -3.85% -7.71%
GBP / USD 1.6701 4.18% 7.06%
EUR / USD 1.4799 4.48% 10.63%
USD / JPY 81.2100 -2.33% 0.07%
USD / SGD 1.2239 -2.89% -4.57%
USD / MYR 2.9610 -2.12% -3.93%
USD / BRL 1.5765 -3.37% -4.99%
nthly Commodity Markets Roundup
r 2011
Index
> Market performance
> Analysis Oil and oilseeds Natural Rubber
> Market visuals Commodity fundamentals gauge Price seasonality Price charts - Agriculture Price charts - Energy
Indices Currency Macroeconomic gauge Traders positions vs. price Spreads Corner
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Table-1: Global Oilseed Production, in million tons2009/10 2010/11 YoY Apr over Jan
Jan est . Apr est. chg (%) chg in %
Soybean 260.2 255.5 261.0 0.3% 2.1%Rapeseed 60.6 58.3 58.6 -3.4% 0.4%
Cottonseed 39.2 43.5 43.2 10.1% -0.8%
Peanut 33.0 34.1 34.7 5.2% 1.7%
Sunflowerseed 30.5 30.1 30.9 1.6% 2.8%
Palm Kernel 12.2 12.8 12.7 4.2% -0.4%Total 441.6 440.4 447.0 1.2% 1.5%
Declining soybean crush margin in US and China
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
4060
80
Jan-
06
Jul-
06
Jan-
07
Jul-
07
Jan-
08
Jul-
08
Jan-
09
Jul-
09
Jan-
10
Jul-
10
Jan-
11
crushmargininUS$per
T
margin in China, active month futures
margin in China, spot month continuation
crush margin in US
Fig-3Source: Reuters andPacrim research
Analysis
Oil and oilseeds: Key market drivers in the short to medium term
Vegetable oils yr 2010/11 balance sheet remains tight
Global oilseed production for the year 2010/11 is estimated at 446.97 million tons. Global demand is
projected at 443.07 million tons during the same
period. Increase in soybean production from
South America and other origins helped to easethe initially anticipated supply squeeze (Table-1).
Global oilseed ending stocks are currently
estimated at 70.57 million tons, which was on
par with previous year stock level.
However, the supply tightness persists in vegetable oil markets. World production of eight major
vegetable oils in 2010/11 is currently expected at 145.95 million tons, up 4.2% year on year while the
consumption is expected at 146.43 million tons, up 6.08% year on year. Year ending stocks are
expected at 9.38 million tons, sharply lower by 25% from previous year. In relative terms, the stocks
account for 6.41% of the projected use vs. 9.07% in the year 2009/10. However, market has factored in
the current year stock tightness and is on look out for hints on next marketing year supply and demandbalance scenario.
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2005/06 08/09 10-11/Oct 10-11/Jan 10-11/Apr
qtyinmilliontons
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
(%)
Production Consumption
S/D (%), RHS stocks to consumption ratio, RHS
Global vegetable oil production, consumption and stock to
use ratio annual trend
Source: USDA and Pacrim research Fig-1
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1980-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 2000-01 05-06 10-11
stockstouseratio
Oilseed
Vegetable oil
Meal
Global oilseeds and vegetable oil stocks to use ratio
trends
Source: USDA and Pacrim research Fig-2
Notwithstanding the support from tight carry forward balance sheet, slowing demand as explained
below and fund activities shall dominate the scenario in the immediate front till a clear perspective on
MY2011-12 supply / demand balance emerges.
Slowing demand amid weak crush margins
Soybean crush margins in China that were
in uptrend till Jan2011 have turned lower as
evident in Fig-3. This has impacted thecrushing pace and lowered the import
demand from China. The crush margin has
recovered marginally in the past two weeks
following the recent correction in soybean
prices and relatively higher product prices,
however still farther away from being
sufficiently attractive to restore the
demand.
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100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
monthlysoybeancrush,inmb
5 yr min
5 yr max
2009-10
2010-11
5 year average
Source: US census and Pacrim research
US monthly soybean crush, in mill ion bushels
Fig-4
3.83.93.9
4.2
3.6 3.6
Production Exports2009 2010 2011
Malaysian Palm oil production and exports
(Jan-Mar total, in mln.Tons)
Source: MPOB and Pacrim research
Fig-5
US soybean accumulated export shipments have reached 36.14 million tons and accounted for 84% of
the projected marketing year exports (43 million tons), less than the previous year same period level of
86.2%. Further, the outstanding sales (export sales not yet shipped) in current market year stood high
at 4.92 million tons vs. 1.87 million tons outstanding at this point of time in the previous year. High
outstanding sales highlight the underlying risk of shipment cancellations which is already evident from
the recent talks of cancellations from China.
At the domestic consumption front, US soybean crush has accumulated to 1014.54 million bushels til
Mar2011 in the current MY (Sep-Aug) and
need to average 127.1 mb per month in the
remaining five month period to achieve the
projected marketing year crush of 1650 mb.
The soybean crush that begun at above
average pace in the current marketing year
has lost momentum in the first quarter of CY
2011. US soybean oil stocks are hovering at
3.4 billion lbs (1.54 million tons) and were
marginally below the decade high of 3.55
billion lbs. Although slowing down crush pacemight help trim the stocks amid the
expectation of increased consumption
demand in the coming period, the impact of the same on prices could be subdued till the current
scenario of profit booking liquidation by funds turns around.
Soybean harvest in South America
Soybean harvest reached 95% in Brazil and about 64.1% of the crop was harvested in Argentina for the
week ending Apr 29, 2011. The soybean production in these two nations is currently anticipated at
around 72 million tons and 49.5 million tons respectively, with possibility of further upside revision
following the higher yields realized in the late harvests.
Palm oil production revival in Malaysia and Indonesia and export demand
The Malaysian palm oil production is recovering from year 2010 LaNina impact. The production in Mar
2011 increased by over 29% over previous month (+2% year on year) and production in the first
quarter of the current calendar year
accumulated to 3.56 million tons compared to
same period previous year production of 3.86
million tons.
Amid the signs of higher biological yields and
production recovery, the global palm oilproduction is projected to reach 48.6 million
tons in CY 2011, a quantum jump of 3 million
tons year on year compared to just 0.5 million
tons increment witnessed in CY 2010.
Production in Indonesia is currently projected
at 23.8 million tons for CY 2011, up 1.8 million
tons year on year while Malaysian palm oil production is forecasted at 17.8 million tons, up by 0.8
million tons over previous year.
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Mean while; demand rationing has kicked in in the first quarter amid high prices as evident from the
lack luster performance of Malaysian palm oil exports. Palm oil exports in the first quarter fell by 14%
year on year to 3.567 million tons, as majority of the buyers from India and China remained sidelined
waiting for prices to correct from multi month highs. This has resulted in stocks rise to 1.61 million tons
by end Mar2011 from the Jan2011 low of 1.41 million tons.
The recovery in palm oil import demand from major destinations like India, China and EU shall be
important amid the increasing signs of strong seasonal rebound in palm oil production. The steep
discount of palm oil against soy oil (Ref Spreads in charts section) is in favor of palm oil from the
demand perspective. Though prices could find support near the lower end of the price range on
expectations of pent up demand, ability to push through the crucial resistances shall await concrete
evidence of increase in demand.
Lateral factors to monitor
i) Volatile crude oil prices amid the persistent geopolitical disturbances in MENA region
ii) Resurfacing EU sovereign debt crisis and macro economic stability
iii) US dollar index: The index slipped below 73 this month and seems to be stabilizing around that leve
as evident by a series of doji candles in the past few trading sessions. Although a technical bouncecould be expected following the deeply oversold momentum indicators on daily and weekly
timeframes, a sustained move above 75.5 levels is needed to over come the near term bearish
pressures.
iv) Profit booking liquidation by funds. The latest CFTC data shows that net long position of speculative
funds was considerably reduced in various commodities (Refer Trader positions in Charts section) and
the same needs to be observed in the following period.
Natural Rubber
Natural Rubber production expected to grow by 5.8% in CY 2011
Natural rubber production for the calendar year 2011 is projected at 10.025 million tons, up 5.8% year
on year facilitated by an expansion in the area and improvement in the productivity. The top two
producers; Thailand and Indonesia are expected to contribute for majority of the production increment
followed by others (Table-2).
Production growth could have been higher but for the unseasonal rains in Mar/Apr period in Thailand
and Malaysia and its impact on production. The production growth in the ensuing months will be
crucial as NR enters into higher production months post May onwards as per the production
seasonality (Fig-6). The production in the second quarter is projected to increase to 2303 TMT, up
10.5% year on year compared to first quarter aggregate of 2265 TMT.
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Table-2: Natural Rubber Production in CY 2011
2009 2010 2011 % chg
Tapped Area
in '000 ha
6777 6991 7174
2.6%
Yield, Kgs /
ha
1314 1355 13973.1%
Production,
'000 MT
8905 9473 100255.8%
Thailand 3164 3252 3375 3.8%
Indonesia 2440 2736 2972 8.6%
Malaysia 857 939 975 3.8% India 820 851 902 6.0%
Vietnam 711 755 780 3.3% China 643 647 685 5.9%
Sri Lanka 136.9 153 159 3.9% Philippines 97.7 98.8 113.5 14.9% Cambodia 34.5 42.2 63.3 50.0%
NR production seasonality,
(% of month prodtn to annual total, average of yr 2008 and 2009)
02
468
1012
141618
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug S ep Oc t Nov Decmonthp
rodtnas%
to
annualtotal
China India Indones ia Malay sia Thailand V ietnam
Fig-6Source: ANRPC and Pacrim research
Consumption growth in yr 2011
Natural Rubber demand increased at marginal pace in first quarter as evident from the slower export
growth from leading exporters. The cumulative exports from world major exporters, who account for
more than 92% of global exports, is estimated at 1854 TMT in the first quarter of current year,
marginally up by 0.5% over previous year.
The performance of automobile segment, which account for more than 50% of natural rubber
consumption, was mixed by the end of first quarter
(Table-3). The natural disaster that hit Japan in
Mar2011 has reduced its domestic automobile
production and sales by more than 50% and severely
disrupted the global automobile supply chain. It is
expected that it would be a while before the
production is restored to the normal pace and hencemight impact the natural rubber consumption growth
in the coming period. The other important factors to
influence the global automobile industry and hence
the rubber consumption are the credit tightening
measures in China and the resurfacing sovereign debt
problems in EU.
Much would depend upon the growth of natural rubber consumption in the current year amid these
mixed signals. At 4.5% year on year growth (vs. 8.62% in the previous year) the global natural rubber
consumption would amount to 10.66 million tons in the current calendar year, marginally below the
projected global natural rubber production of 10.74 million tons. The surplus shall help increasing the
year ending stocks to 1.73 million tons from the previous year level of 1.64 million tons. In relative
terms, the stocks account for 1.94 months of use vs. 1.93 in the previous year. Although the expected
increase in supplies coupled with ongoing fund liquidation might pressurize the prices in the immediate
front, underlying tightness and increase in collective bargaining power of major producing countries
shall extend the underlying support to prices near lower price ranges.
Table-3: Automobile sales for the period Jan-Mar in year 2011 vs. year 2009 in majorcountries. Sales in mln. units.
2011 2010 %change
China(Jan/Feb) 3.16 2.88 9.9%US (Light
vehicle sales) 3.06 2.55 20.2%EU-27 (Newcarregistrations) 3.58 3.67 -2.3%
Japan 1.08 1.33 -18.5%
Source: JAMA, CAAM, Reuters, ACEA and Pacrim research
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Table-4: Natural Rubber balance sheet, qty in million tons.1991 1995 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011F
Production 5.16 6.04 6.76 8.90 9.62 10.23 10.74
Consumption 5.09 6.00 7.34 9.20 9.39 10.20 10.66Production deficit/surplus 0.07 0.04 -0.58 -0.30 0.23 0.03 0.08
Ending stocks 2.38 2.45 2.18 1.75 1.61 1.64 1.73Stocks to use ratio 46.8% 40.8% 29.7% 19.0% 17.2% 16.1% 16.2%
Stocks in months to use 5.61 4.90 3.57 2.29 2.06 1.93 1.94
Source: Pacrim research
Currency impact
Besides the underlying supply and demand
forces, the currency factor should also be
monitored in the coming period. The currencies
of major producers cum exporters viz.
Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have
appreciated against the US dollar (Fig-7) andthe same shall be supportive to prices as
exporters forced to increase their offers to
compensate for the loss in export earnings. Any
further appreciation (or weak US dollar) shall
be supportive to the prices.
A short term technical bounce is also on the cards aftermath to the recent price slide. However
concrete evidence of demand recovery should accompany for the expected corrective bounce to
sustain.
Fig-7: Appreciating currencies of major NR
exporters vs. NR price.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201
30
40
50USDTHB
5000
10000
15000USDIDR
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5USDMYR
1
2
3
4
5
6RSS3, FOB, BKK, US$/kg
RSS3 BKK US$kg (5.55816, 5.55816, 5.55816, 5.55816, -0.06328)
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Price seasonalitySBO at CBOT, price in USc /lb CPO at BMD, price in MYR/T
day of year
value
20
30
40
50
60
70
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
day of year
value
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
year
2005
2006
2007
20082009
2010
2011
SB at CBOT, price in USc / bushel Corn at CBOT, price in USc /bushel
day of year
value
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
day of year
value
200
300
400
500
600
700
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
SBM at CBOT, price in USD / short ton Wheat at CBOT, price USc / bushel
day of year
valu
e
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
day of year
valu
e
400
600
800
1000
1200
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Sugar at ICE, price in USc / lb RSS3 (Natural Rubber) at TOCOM, price in JPY / kg
day of year
valu
e
10
15
20
25
30
35
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
year
2005
2006
20072008
2009
2010
2011
day of year
valu
e
200
300
400
500
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
year
2005
2006
20072008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Pacrim research
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Price charts - AgricultureCPO futures at BMD, weekly continuous SBO futures at CBOT, weekly continuous
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201
50
Stoc,9
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
Palm oil continous 3 month cumulative vol (3,290.00, 3,305.00, 3,271.00, 3,271.00, +1.00000)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201
50
Stoc,9
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
SOYBEAN OIL COMPOSITE Continuous (58.0600, 58.6000, 57.1200, 57.2700, -0.86000)
Soybean futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Sugar No:11 futures at ICE, weekly continuous
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
SOYBEANS COMPOSITE Continuous (1,389.50, 1,400.00, 1,352.00, 1,359.25, -33.5000)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
SUGAR 11 ICE Continuous (22.1900, 22.4300, 21.4500, 22.0500, -1.33000)
Rubber Rss3 futures at TOCOM, weekly continuous Corn futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
50
100
150
200250
300
350
400
450
500
550
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
RUBBER CONTI 6 MONTH (388.400, 390.500, 374.600, 386.800, -2.30002)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
150
200
250
300
350400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
CORN COMPOSITE Continuous (752.750, 757.750, 716.000, 719.000, -35.0000)
Wheat futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Cotton futures @ ICE, weekly continuous
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
WHEAT COMPOSITE Continuous (772.000, 793.000, 748 .250, 760.750, -8.50000)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
50
100
150
200
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
COTTON NO 2 ICE Continuous (178.050, 180.230, 172.790, 179.210, +0.43001)
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research
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Price Charts Energy and Metals
Crude oil at NYMEX, US$ / barrel, weekly Natural Gas at NYMEX,
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201
50
Stoc,9
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
LIGHT CRUDE COMPOSITE Continuous (113.890, 114.830, 110.300, 111.050, -2.88000)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201
50
Stoc,9
1
2
3
4
5
6
78
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
NATURAL GAS COMPOSITE Continuous (4.68500, 4.72900, 4.63700, 4.67000, -0.02800)
Gold, spot, weekly, US$ / oz Silver, spot, weekly, USc/oz.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
200
300
400
500
600
700
800900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
gold (1,567.29, 1,575.79, 1,527.02, 1,535.88, -27.7200)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
sil ver (47.9000, 48.1200, 40.6400, 41.6400, -6.31000)
Copper at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Zinc at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500700075008000850090009500
1000010500
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
3MT COPPER USD (9,230.00, 9,350.00, 9,220.00, 9,350.00, +30.0000)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
3MT ZINC DLR (2,224.00, 2,245.00, 2,224.00, 2,245.00, -2.00000)
Aluminium at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Lead at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
3MT ALUMINIUM $ (2,750.00, 2,798.00, 2,747.00, 2,797.00, +29.5000)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
3MT LEAD DLR (2,512.00, 2,515.00, 2,509.00, 2,509.50, +18.5000)
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research
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Indices, weekly charts
DowJones Industrial Average, US S & P 500, US
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201
50
Stoc,96000650070007500
8000850090009500
10000105001100011500120001250013000
135001400014500
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
Dow Jon es INDU AVERAGE NDX (12,810.20, 12,876.00, 12,750.00, 12,807.50, -3.00000)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
S&P 500 INDEX (1,363.61, 1,370.51, 1,349.71, 1,356.62, -6.98999)
FTSE-100, UK Strait Times Index, Singapore
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
FTSE 100 INDEX (6,069.90, 6,103.73, 6,050.71, 6,082.88, +12.9800)
1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
STI FTSE STRAIT TIMES INDEX (3,180.68, 3,182.46, 3,143.73, 3,153.57, -26.2900)
Shangai Composite Index, China BSE Sensex, India
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE INDEX (2,911.51, 2,933.46, 2,890.22, 2,932.19, +20.6799)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
5000
10000
15000
20000
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
BOMBAY SE SENSEX INDEX (19,224.00, 19,253.90, 18,502.40, 18,534.70, -601.301)
S & P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, weekly VIX (Volatility Index)
9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
S&P GSCI INDEX (755.840, 761.660, 739.740, 742.868, -15.9270)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
510
1520
2530
3540
45
5055
6065
7075
8085
9095
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
Volatility Index (15.0700, 17.2900, 15.0700, 16.7000, +1.95000)
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research
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Currencies, weekly chartsUS Dollar Index spot GBP / USD
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
US DOLLAR INDEX (72.9930, 73.3190, 72.7220, 73.1400, +0.20700)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,91.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.80
1.85
1.90
1.95
2.00
2.05
2.10
2.15
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
UK pound s terling (1.67090, 1.67370, 1.64620, 1.64800, -0.02210)
EUR / USD USD / JPY
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
0.80
0.85
0.900.95
1.00
1.051.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.551.60
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
EuroDollar (1.48230, 1.49020, 1.47510, 1.48260, +0.00270)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
Japanese yen (81.1100, 81.6900, 80.6600, 80.9300, -0.28000)
USD / SGD USD / MYR
9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.80
1.85
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
Singapore dol lar (1.22230, 1.22920, 1.22080, 1.22790, +0.00400)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
Malaysian ringgit (2.96100, 2.97900, 2.96100, 2.97300, +0.01200)
USD 10 year treasury yield EUR 10 year treasury yield
Line, QUS10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 3.2529
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 3.0833
Yield
.1234
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
StochS, QUS10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 35.602
StochS, QUS10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 46.373
Value
.123
30
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2000 2010
Line, QEU10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 3.27
SMA, QEU10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 2.852
Yield
.123
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
StochS, QEU10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 46.242
StochS, QEU10YT=RR, 08/05/2011, 58.097
Value
.123
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1990 2000 2010
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research
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Macroeconomic gaugeUnemployment rate in US, UK, EURO ZONE, Germany and JPY (%) Industrial production index (manufacturing) in US, GBP and JPY
EUR
USD
UK JPY
GermanyLine, QaUSUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 8.8
Line, QaJPUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 4.6
Line, QaXZUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 9.9
Line, QaGBUEMPYT/A, (S1, S2), 31/01/2011, 7.8
Line, QaDEUNR/A, (S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 7.10
Value
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010
US
JPY
GBP
Line, QaGBMFG/CA, (Base Year=2006)(S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 92.7
Line, QaUSMFG/CA, (Base Year=2007)(S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 90.709
Line, QaJPIPMAN/A, (Base Year=2005)(S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 82.9
Value
75
80
85
90
95
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1990 2000 2010
Automobile sales in US and China US survey indexes, ISM mgf and services, CB consumer confidence
China
USA
Line, QaCNDSLSAUT, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 1.828M
Line, QaUSVHLS, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 1.242M
Value
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1M
1.2M
1.4M
1.6M
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010
CB Consumer confidence, LHS
ISM services
ISM manufacturing
Line, QaUSNPMI/A, (S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 60.4
Line, QaUSNMFGPMI, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 57.3
Line, QaUSCONCF/A, (Base Year=1985)(S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 65.4
Value
35
40
45
50
55
Value
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010
Key interest rates, in % Consumer price inflation (YoY), %
US
GBP
JPY
EUR
CNY
Line, QJPPRIME=, 31/05/2011, 1.7
Line, QGBPRIME=, 31/05/2011, 0.5
Line, QECBMRO=ECBF, 31/05/2011, 1.25
Line, QUSPRIME=, 31/05/2011, 3.25
Line, QaINPLR, (S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 9.5
Line, QaCNLENR1Y, ( S1, S2), 31 /05/2011, 6.31
Price
.12
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1990 2000 2010
PctCng, QaUSCPI/A, (Base Year=1982)(S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 2.702
PctCng, QaGBCPI, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 4.053
Line, QaINCPINET, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 8.823
Line, QaXZCPIALL, (S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 2.8
Line, QaJPCPINY, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 0
Line, QaCNCPIYY, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 5.383
Value
.123
0
3
6
9
12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1990 2000 2010
Source: Reuters, IMF and Pacrim research
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Traders positions vs. PriceSoybean at CBOT Soybean oil at CBOT
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
price,USc/bushel
'000lots
Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
30
40
50
60
price,USc/lb
'000lots
Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
Sugar No:11 at ICE Crude oil at NYMEX
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-400
-200
0
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
10
15
20
25
30
price,USc
/lb
'000lots
Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-400
-200
0
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
40
60
80
1
00
120
140
price,US$/b
arrel
'000lots
Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
Gold at COMEX Copper at COMEX
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
600
800
1000
1200
1400
price,USD/
t.oz
'000lots
Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
price,USc/lb
'000lots
Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
Corn at CBOT Cotton No:2 at ICE
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
200
300
400
500
600
700
price,USc/bushel
'000lots
Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-200
-100
-50
0
50
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
50
100
150
200
price,USc/lb
'000lots
Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
Source: CFTC and Pacrim research
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Spreads cornerPME vs. ULSD CPO vs. PFAD
Spread, QPME-CIFARA, 04/05/2011, 299.75
SMA, Spread(QPME-CIFARA, QULSD10-C-NWE), 04/05/2011, 353.63
Value
USD
T
.12
0
200
Line, QPME-CIFARA, 29/04/2011, 1,335
Line, QULSD10-C-NWE, 04/05/2011, 1,035.25
Price
USD
T
.12
600
900
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
252.58
Spread, QPALM-MYFOB-P1, 03/05/2011, 400.17
EMA, Spread(QPALM-MYFOB-P1, QPFAD-MYFOB-P1), 03/05/2011, 213.96
Value
USD
T
.12
100
200
300
Line, QPALM-MYFOB-P1, 03/05/2011, 1,145.17
Line, QPFAD-MYFOB-P1, 03/05/2011, 745
Price
USD
T
.12
400
600
800
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Coconut oil vs Palm kernel oil CPO CIF vs. CPKO CIF
Spread, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 03/05/2011, 170EMA, Spread(QCNUT-PHID-P1, QPALK-MYID-P1), 03/05/2011, 3.68
ValueUSD
T
.12
-100
0
100
Line, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 03/05/2011, 2,090
Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 03/05/2011, 1,920
Price
USD
T
.12
500
1,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1990 2000 2010
Spread, QPALK-MYID-P1, 03/05/2011, 770SMA, Spread(QPALK-MYID-P1, QPALM-MYCRD-P1), 03/05/2011, 605.76
ValueUSD
T
.12
0
400
Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 03/05/2011, 1,920
Line, QPALM-MYCRD-P1, 03/05/2011, 1,150
Price
USD
T
.12
500
1,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1990 2000 2010
SBO @ CBOT vs. CPO @ BMD Sugar white premium, Sug@LIFFE vs. Sug @ ICE
Spread, QBOc1, 04/05/2011, 170.855
SMA, Spread(QBOc1, QKPOc3), 04/05/2011, 81.284
Value
USD
T
.123
0
100
200
Line, QBOc1, 04/05/2011, 1,263.69
Line, QKPOc3, 0 4/05/2011, 1,092.836
Price
USD
T
.123
300
600
900
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1990 2000 2010 [Delayed]
Line, QLSUc1, 03/05/2011, 609.5
Line, QSBc1, 03/05/2011, 486.1
Price
USD
T
.1
200
400
Spread, QLSUc1, 03/05/2011, 123.38
SMA, Spread(QLSUc1, QSBc1), 03/05/2011, 96.501
Value
USD
T
.123
050
100
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1980 1990 2000 2010 [Delayed]
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research
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Disclaimer: The research presented in this document is based on the information obtained from sourceswe believe to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Nothing contained herein shall be construed asa recommendation to buy or sell cash commodities, commodity futures or options on futures.
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