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Special Warfare Education Group (Airborne)
Pakistan: Disputed Boundaries in KashmirThe overall classification of this briefing is: UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED
Cogita, Disce, AptaCogita, Disce, Apta
Apr 21, 2023OPR: AOJK-EDGUNCLASSIFIED2
AGENDA:
Introduction
History of Pak-India conflict
Geography of Pakistan
Pakistani Politics in regards to India
Military budget in Pakistan versus India
Pakistan’s Economy
Social Stigmas of India and Pakistan conflict
Water Rights and Infrastructure
Media and the conflict
Significance to US National Security Strategy ( and regional implications)
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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Kashmir is a region in the north of Pakistan and India that has been in conflict for some time. The war in Afghanistan and the larger global conflict against terrorism has overshadowed this conflict and kept it largely out of media attention for some time now. The withdraw of US troops from Afghanistan is beginning to raise concerns to the involved parties and the rest of the world again.
The dispute over the Kashmir border between Pakistan and India is a leading cause of regional instability in Pakistan, which directly affects US regional interests and negatively impacts broader US security interests as outlined in the USNSS.
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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Chronology/History
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
1947Partition of India creates
Pakistan
1948Muhammed Ali Jinnah assassinated;
1st War with India over Kashmir
1956Constitution proclaims
Pakistan an Islamic Rep.
1958 General Ayyub Khan takes over
19652nd War with India over
Kashmir
1971East Pakistan secedes – Civil War.
India supports E. Pakistan.
1972Simla peace agreement w. India
creates new Kashmir border
1980US pledges military assistance to
Pak as Russia invades Afghanistan
1998Pakistan conducts nuclear
tests (after India)
1999Pak forces clash w/ Indian
military vic. Kargil
2001 Pakistan supports US in GWOT
Dec 2001-Ind/Pak mass troops
Along border
APR 2005Bus services resume between PAK and India after 60 years
May, 2002Pakistan test fires 3 med range
missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads
2003Ind/Pak declare a cease
fire
2011 March - The prime ministers of India and Pakistan meet to watch a cricket match
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Geography
Of
Pakistan
•Tribal Areas
•Khyber-Pakh
•Balochistan
•Kashmir
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
Afghanistan
India
Iran
TajUzb
Geography
Of
Pakistan
•Tribal Areas
•Khyber-Pakh
•Balochistan
•Kashmir
Turkmenistan
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Rivers of Pakistan
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Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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Pakistani military strategy for a possible war with India
War on the Siachen Glacier
Future issues faced by the PAK MIL in Kashmir
-Containment of VEO spread into Kashmir
-Spill over of extremism into India
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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Economic
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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Political
11 May 2013 Elections
•First transition from/to elected government in Pakistan’s history
• New government to take control in June
•Violent Lead-Up to Elections (Pakistani Taliban)
• Taliban claims elections are anti-Islamic
•New (Returning) Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif
• Historically, pursues peace in Kashmir
• Remains committed to peaceful Kashmir solution IAW UN Resolution
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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Political
11 May 2013 Elections (Cont’d)
•Pakistan Muslim League – N (PML-N) gains power
• Conservative, capitalist, pro-agriculture
• Strongly opposes religious extremism
• Historically, pursued/enhanced nuclear expansion in Pakistan
• Promotes strong continued relations with China
•Kashmir dispute to remain among top priorities with new Gov’t
• Sharif supports Kashmiri right to self-determination
• Alleged state-sponsored suppression and human rights violations in India-controlled Kashmir
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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Political
Pakistan Relations with India
•2004 Cease-Fire currently maintained
• Prime Minister (Elect) Sharif to maintain peaceful relations
• India to hold general elections in 2014
• New Prime Minister could mean renewed conflict or peace progression
Pakistan Relations with China
•China continually provides economic, military, and technical aid
•Close strategic allies
•China supports Pakistan’s claims to Kashmir
*Pakistan-China Relations continue to cause strain on Pakistan-India Relations*
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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Conflict as it shapes issues with power, water, agriculture:
Indus Waters Treaty 1960
•Three Western Rivers
-Pakistan
•Three Eastern Rivers
-India
Permanent Indus Commission
•Treaty has never been revoked
Tarbela Dam
•Special Services Group SSG
•Tarbela Ghazi Base
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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Karakoram Highway
-Khunjerab Pass
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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Conflict in the Media
China Frame/Stance:
-Interest in expansion
India Frame/Stance:
-Control over River & Tributaries
-Has power to pursue Kashmir
Pakistan Frame/Stance:
-wants Kashmir
-hesitant to pursue
Kashmir- Neutral
-Wants Peace & Independence
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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Religious differences and prejudices complicate the conflict:
-Shia versus Sunni in Pakistan
-Muslim versus Hindu in Kashmir
-Muslim Majority in Kashmir on both sides of the border
-Conflict drives perception of India to Pakistanis;
Perception of India drives further conflict
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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Regional Implications
•China – Border and road to port considerations
•Afghanistan – Control of the tribal areas
•Central-Asia – spill over of conflict and extremism
•Nuclear Arsenal
“Pakistan is approaching a perfect storm of threats, including rising extremism, a failing economy, chronic underdevelopment, and an intensifying war, resulting in unprecedented political, economic, and social turmoil.”
-Anthony Cordesoman, qtd in “Frenemies: The US-Pakistan Relation is No Love Match,” Time
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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US National Strategic Implications
•China – Competing superpowers
•Afghanistan – ongoing conflict there
•Central-Asia – spill over of conflict
•India and Pakistan – both countries are allies
•Nuclear Deterrence
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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The Way Ahead?
“Treat Pakistan as a subject – not as an object – of U.S. Government policy.”
-INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ADVISORY BOARD Report on Pakistan and U.S. Security Strategy, 9 OCT 2012
“While the ultimate responsibility of negotiating a solution is with the involved parties, it is also the right time for the United States to pursue creative, persistent, and discreet high-level diplomacy to help move the peace process forward.”-M. Farooq Kathwari“How the Kashmir Dispute Affects Security in South Asia” Council on Foreign Relations
Pakistan Kashmir Conflict
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QUESTIONS
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