Climate Risk and Resilient City: Challenge and Awareness in China
PAN Jihua, ZHENG Yan, XIE Xinlu, ZHOU Yamin, WANG Jianwu, ZHU Shouxian, et al.
December 2nd 2011, Durban, South Africa
Institute of Urban & Environmental Studies (IUE), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
NSFC Project (No.70933005)
Contents
Climate risks and challenges for adaptation in China
Challenges for building resilient cities
Make city more resilient and low carbon: Integrate adaptation and mitigation into urban strategy
Climate Risks in China & Challenges for adaptation
Economic Losses of GDP in total Weather related disasters in China
(1990-2010)
Economic Losses of GDP in different weather disasters in
China (2003-2010)
Climate Vulnerability Mapping for China (2005-2010)
因子 Component
指标 Indicators
Climate Sensitivity(0.36))
Population Vulnerability
(0.22)
Social Devt(0.18)
Environmental Disasters
(0.12)
Ecological Vulnerability
(0.12)
Climate Disasters losses in GDP(% ) (2006-2010) 0.722 0.103 0.284 -0.101 -0.129
Affected Population in Total (%) 0.924 0.087 -0.026 0.264 -0.058
Pysicians 0.623 0.547 0.086 -0.012 -0.204
GDP per capita 0.791 0.458 0.195 -0.1 -0.16
Climate Sensitivity Sectors in total ( %) 0.667 0.439 -0.041 -0.23 -0.149
Adaptation inputs ( %) 0.833 0.203 0.279 -0.256 0.081
Family burden 0.181 0.935 0.132 0.049 -0.06
Vulnerable population rate 0.472 0.801 0.267 -0.013 -0.029
Illiteracy ( %) 0.156 0.175 0.819 0.082 -0.032
Income Disparity 0.494 0.448 0.548 -0.072 -0.016
Life Expectation 0.602 0.276 0.641 -0.277 -0.077
Environmental disasters -0.113 0.04 0.076 0.89 0.106
Water resources pressure -0.191 0.006 -0.128 -0.026 0.929
Forest coverage (%)0.002 -0.32 0.484 0.142 0.647
Preliminary findings:
The top 3 most Vulnerable provinces were Gansu, Ningxia and Guizhou, which is consistent with the climate capacity discrepancy.
The West regions are more vulnerable than the coastal and East regions in China, since the former ones were more sensitive to climate hazards and socially vulnerable.
CHALLENGES: Geographical unbalance in
climate risks and vulnerability
Increasing wealth and more exposed physical capitals: esp in coastal developed areas
Aging society with more exposure population
Challenges for building resilient cities
Fast Urbanization in China since 1980s
Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Ningbo, Hongkong, …ranking among top 20 coastal cities with high climate risk by 2050 (OECD,2008)
Vulnerable mega-cities in China
Vulnerability measurement for mega-
cities in China
Climate Vunerability Assessment in China's Mega-Cities(2010)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Climate Sensitivity
Population Vunerability
Social Development
Environmental Disasters
Ecological Vulerability
Comprehensive Vunerability
气候
脆弱
度(C
lima
te V
un
era
bili
ty I
nd
ex)
北京Beijing
上海Shanghai
天津Tianjin
重庆ChongqingHigh
Low
Midium
Chongqing ranked in the top one vulnerable city among the 4 municipalities, cause its more vulnerable population rate, higher climate sensitivity and environmental disasters.
Challenges for building resilient cities
Weakness & Strengths of China’s Mega-cities
Financial capacity Technical capacity Engineering infrastructures Institutional capacity Ecological health
Mainstreaming Adaptation and DRR into Urban planning
Challenges: More aging and wealthier cities in future
Disparity in economic and social vulnerability
Consolidating Urbanization with large poverty population
Make city more resilient and low carbon
46.6%6.22亿人
URBANIZATION IN CHINA12th FYP: 47.5%51.5% , annual avg rate 0.8%= 12 million
urban population
1790-2050 USA urbanization
1920-1960年年均提高 0.47个百分点
China facing more challenges than that of developed countries
Make city more resilient and low carbon: Integrate adaptation and mitigation into city strategy
Adaptation Reduce the vulnerability: lifeline of city Low carbon adaptation: urban green lands, green power,
environmental infrastructures, etc. Synergy between mitigation and adaptation
Planning • Urban planning: transport, residential settlement• Industry planning: resources dependant sectors• Spatial planning: population and land using
Technology • Green building, smart grid, etc • Adaptive technologies
Management and governance
Thanks for comments~
http://www.rcsd.org.cn
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