Climate Process modeling Team (CPT)
Ming Ji (NOAA/OGP)Ming Ji (NOAA/OGP)
NAME Science Working GroupNAME Science Working Group
Nov. 6, 2003Nov. 6, 2003
NOAA ISIP Program
• Provide the Nation with a seamless suite of climate forecasts and application products to manage risks and opportunities of climate impacts due to intra-seasonal to interannual climate variations
ISIP Program Components
1. High-end model development (e.g., NCEP, GFDL, GMAO, CCSM)
2. Experimental Prediction 3. Forecast and Application Products Development4. Research and Development (e.g., NAME)
Observing and understanding Improving physical representation in models Transition research into operations
(e.g., improving operational models through CPTs) Legacies:
Thinking about impact on “operations” before thinking about the next process study
CPT as a Framework to Facilitate the Path of Research to Operations
• CPT is an attractive framework for linking theory, process studies and experiments, diagnostics, process model development, climate and prediction models, and observations.
• CPTs focus on improvements in major (operational) climate models as deliverable
Climate Process TeamsCooperative Development
Climate modeldevelopment &
improvementProcess modeldevelopment
Process experiments and observations
Data, knowledge
Lack of focus, little interaction
DeliverablesDocumented observations
Improved parameterizations
Impact evaluation
Plans for additional process studies
Observing requirements
• Improving key deficiencies of physical processes (parameterizations) common in climate models
Model intercomparison projects are insufficient to address how to improve physical processes in models
• Bridging the large gap between process research (process observation and process modeling) and climate model development efforts
• Guiding (some of) future process studies
• Identifying sustained observational requirements
Climate Process modeling and science Teams
Approach
• Provide resources to small teams of observationalists, diagnostic scientists, process modelers, and (one or more) developers of climate models:
– Focus on interaction & deliverables (not manuscripts) that lead to demonstrated improvement in climate models
– Establish collaborative efforts between the research community and modeling centers
– Encourage active long-term mechanisms
– Management mechanisms (Institutional and programmatic commitment)
Pilot Phase Summary
• US CLIVAR developed concept and recommended scientific areas where rapid progress was likely (GFDL-CCSM Priorities)
• NSF and NOAA announcement (2003: ~$2.5M per year) to address critical issues in IPCC class climate models
• Three Pilot CPTs established (2003) to demonstrate the concept:
– Low-latitude cloud feedbacks on climate sensitivity
– Ocean mixing in overflow regions (e.g. over steep topography)
– Mesoscale eddy interaction with upper-ocean mixing
April 2002 GFDL/NCAR Workshop on Atmospheric Model Development
Recommendations for science process teams:
What are the highest priority problems on which to focus attention in order to improve climate change models on < 5 year time scales?
1) Cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity
How can we best confront our models with observations to improve cloud prediction schemes so as to reduce the uncertainty in global climate sensitivity?
2) Deep tropical convection and convective parameterization
Deficiencies in tropical convection schemes are a major impediment towards creating better coupled models and simulating regional climate change
Climate Feedback Differences Between GFDL and NCAR Models
Climate sensitivity rankingsLow level cloud changes at 2xco2
Timeline for Pilot CPTs
2002-2003: PlanningCCSM-GFDL workshopCPT white paperTropical Bias workshop (double ITCZ)Vest in the community (CCSM-SAB, CLIVAR-SSC/SSG, WCRP/JSC, NRC)
Spring 2003: Joint NSF-NOAA AOSummer 2003: ReviewsSept. 2003: Funding Decisions
Low-latitude feedbacks on climate sensitivity Three high-end modeling centers (CCSM, GFDL, GMAO) Eight University research groups (PIs)
Ocean mixing processes (2 teams, all Major OGCMs)Oct. 1, 2003: Start of 3-year projects
NAME CPTs ?
Goal: Improving operational weather and climate models through NAME obs and NAME science
2004: PlanningHigh priority processes: NCEP-GMAO-GFDL? Others? Diurnal Cycle? Convective Precip over complex terrain?
Vest in the community (NAME, VAMOS, GAPP, PACS, others)
Winter 2004/05: AO ?FY06 Starts ?
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