Climate Change Mitigation: The need to include Agriculture, Forestry and Other

Land Uses (AFOLU)

Mr. Stephen KarangiziAssistant Secretary GeneralCOMESA

Scope • Introduction• What science says about AFOLU• Mitigation potential of agriculture in Africa• Why AFOLU• CDM a missed opportunity • The inequity under CDM• The economics of AFOLU• Technical potential of AFOLU options• Barriers• Opportunities to overcome the barriers• Framework for African Biocarbon Facility• Key Messages

Introduction• Africa will be hardest hit by climate with large effects on agriculture.• Poor farmers and other vulnerable groups will need help adapting

to climate change.• Today agriculture contributes 14 percent of annual GHG emissions

and land use change, including forest loss contributes another 19 percent.

• Need to tackle the drivers of deforestation that lie outside the forestry sector.

• Agriculture, forestry and other land use have a huge potential to contribute to cost mitigation of GHGs through changes in agricultural technologies, avoided deforestation and management practices. ( COMESA –CAADP)

What science says about AFOLU…

• GHG emissions from agriculture and other land use changes are expected to increase in the future.

• The potential for mitigation thro’ agriculture in Africa has been estimated at 970mtCO2e per year by 2030 – accounting for 17% of the global total with additional 14% from forestry.

• Africa has significant potential in AFOLU to deliver on carbon sequestration and co-benefits such as food security, biodiversity conservation and poverty reduction.

Mitigation Potential of Agriculture in Africa

• AFOLU 1004 Mt CO2-eq/yr until 2030

Technical Potential of AFOLU Options

Why AFOLU?

• Current CDM arrangements are not facilitating greater African participation

• Smallholders’ land activities (agric +) are largely responsible for deforestation and forest degradation in Africa

• Tenure and ownership less controversial in small farm / land holdings than forest areas

• Agric and Other land uses would potentially yield more co-benefits than REDD alone

• C Markets = 118 US$ Billion while Adaptation Fund = <200 Millions

8

CDM – A Missed Opportunity for Africa

Registered CDM projects by Region

63.90

Asia and the Pacific

33.00

Latin America and Caribbean

Africa

Source:http://cdm.unfccc.int

Africa accounts for less than 3% of total CDM projects

90% of those projects are in South Africa

2.6

The inequity under CDM

• CDM excludes in non-annex 1 countries the following:Forest conservationAvoided deforestationSustainable forest managementRenewable biomassAgriculture and soil carbon

Yet, all the above and A/R are credited in annex 1 countries!

The Economics of AFOLU

• More than any other region Africa depends on agriculture and other land uses for food and economic security.

• African terrestrial mitigation can be evenly split between agriculture, avoided deforestation and reforestation

• Potential annual payments to Africa from terrestrial carbon: From REDD – 500,000,000 mt @ $10/mt = $ X billion From A/R – 500,000,000 mt @ $10/mt = $ X billion From agriculture – 500,000,000 @ $ 10/mt = $ X billionTotal $ 3X billionThis is about 2.5 times average annual aid to Africa.

Source: McKinsey Analysis

Barriers

• Exclusion of soil carbon sequestration and avoided deforestation.

• Methodological issues – Monitoring, Reportable and Verifiable (MRVs)

Defining the baseline Additionality Leakages Permanence

• Cost effectiveness • High transaction costs

Opportunities to overcome the barriers…

• Simplify the rules of CDM.• Broaden the CDM definition of afforestation and

reforestation to include agroforestry and forest rehabilitation.

• Allow soil carbon sequestration and REDD plus under CDM.

• Increase participation in voluntary markets.• Establish an African Biocarbon Facility to harness

both public and private funds for AFOLU and REDD.

Feb, 2009 Climate Change WorkshopNairobi, Kenya

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African BioCarbon Facility

BioCarbon Fund

Buyer BuyerBuyer

$ Credits

Intermediary

ActivityActivity

ActivityActivity

$ Carbon Rights

Intermediary

ActivityActivity

ActivityActivity

$ Carbon Rights

Carbon credits$, tech assistance

BuyerBuyer

Buyer% of credits sold under long term forward contracts

% of credits sold after generated

ODA, Countries, other Investors $

$

Key Messages

• Across Africa, the fate of the poor and vulnerable groups are closely tied to agriculture as sources of food and economic security.

• Africa must optimize the full climate change mitigation and adaptation potential by ensuring that AFOLU and REDD are included in the Post 2012 climate change agreement.

• A programme of work for REDD/AFOLU readiness should be set out in the post 2012 climate change agreement.

• Broaden and simplify CDM to include REDD, afforestation, reforestation, agriculture and other land uses.

• Pursue the establishment of an African BioCarbon Facility to support climate change mitigation and adaptation projects, programmes and initiatives in Africa.

Key Messages 2• Partnerships at two levels • Level 1 : cooperation with sister regional institutions such as

SADC, EAC and IGAD• Level 2: cooperation with international institutions , Civil

Society and Private Sector • Supporting Mainstreaming of Climate Change at National

level ( Negotiating position, increased awareness , take advantage of opportunities particularly Bio-carbon Facility)

Thank youfor your attention