Cliff BrewisSenior Director OperationsMcGraw-Hill Construction
GDP Pattern: History Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -3.1% +2.4% +1.8% +2.1% +2.2%
U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook Continued sluggish recovery…
Real GDP Growth - Quarterly Annualized Percent Change
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
'12 Q2+1.3%
Contribution from Housing
Reliance on Private Work
Deficit/Restrictive
Demand/Employment
Sequestration
Europe
Unemployment by State Recovery varied across the country
3
U.S. Residential – Single Family HousingAfter stalling in 2011, construction has picked up 2012.
549
435 446 413510
610
-41% -21% +2% -7% +24% +20% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Single Family Housing Thousands of Dwelling Units
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 20-Metro Composite, Indexed Jan 2000=100
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Supply of Single Family Homes Number of Months, New Homes
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
LA/Orange Co.: Single Family
‘$000.00
LA/Orange Co.: Multi Family
‘$000.00
LA/Orange Co.: Retail
7‘$000.00
LA/Orange Co.: Office
8‘$000.00
LA/Orange Co.: Education
‘$000.00
LA/Orange Co.: Healthcare
‘$000.00
LA/Orange Co.: Highways
‘$000.00
LA/Orange Co.: 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MULTI FAM $2,713,135 $1,755,974 $341,702 $488,783 $1,018,112 $1,590,132 $1,506,383
-35.28% -80.54% 43.04% 108.30% 56.18% -5.27%
EDUC $1,928,343 $3,255,471 $1,183,684 $2,008,495 $1,183,432 $1,132,773 $889,577
68.82% -63.64% 69.68% -41.08% -4.28% -21.47%
HEALTH $393,261 $384,757 $1,084,142 $331,297 $713,891 $356,598 $631,064
-2.16% 181.77% -69.44% 115.48% -50.05% 76.97%
HOTEL $746,149 $168,785 $64,279 $41,917 $43,758 $252,245 $112,091
-77.38% -61.92% -34.79% 4.39% 476.45% -55.56%
MFG $80,485 $45,374 $2,609 $90,864 $12,220 $2,835 $59,113
-43.62% -94.25% 3382.71% -86.55% -76.80% 1984.76%
OFFICE $766,938 $430,160 $322,480 $187,487 $133,715 $245,153 $188,148
-43.91% -25.03% -41.86% -28.68% 83.34% -23.25%
ONEFAM $2,540,555 $1,480,877 $1,267,419 $1,496,213 $1,475,596 $1,838,581 $2,398,297
-41.71% -14.41% 18.05% -1.38% 24.60% 30.44%
PUB $112,603 $170,393 $110,549 $104,727 $358,489 $145,157 $174,628
51.32% -35.12% -5.27% 242.31% -59.51% 20.30%
RETAIL $662,245 $740,580 $291,767 $330,954 $332,364 $401,073 $421,205
11.83% -60.60% 13.43% 0.43% 20.67% 5.02%
HIGHWAY $801,558 $771,075 $1,051,431 $986,688 $984,586 $962,789 $726,739
-3.80% 36.36% -6.16% -0.21% -2.21% -24.52%
WATER $269,706 $551,484 $361,904 $260,898 $305,950 $264,444 $321,314
104.48% -34.38% -27.91% 17.27% -13.57% 21.51%
TOTAL $15,556,461 $13,251,992 $9,064,543 $10,203,634 $10,167,487 $11,264,072 $11,903,603
-14.81% -31.60% 12.57% -0.35% 10.79% 5.68%
Questions?Cliff BrewisSenior Director OperationsMcGraw-Hill Construction/Dodge510 – 566 – [email protected]