8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
1/19
Clevelands Housing Market:
Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain
Thomas Bier
Maxine Goodman Levin College of Urban Affairs
Cleveland State University
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
2/19
Cleveland is Affected by Suburban Housing
Inner suburbs have many thousands oflow-priced properties.
Low-mod will continue to move out (growth insuburban poverty exceeds Cleveland).
If just 5% move out, Clevelands population
declines.
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
3/19
Suburbanites Are Heading Out
80% move farther out; half to adjacent county.
Most moves are to new or newer properties.
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
4/19
Cuyahogas Losses to Adjacent Counties
2004-2009
In Out Net
Households 33,000 48,000 -15,000
Persons 51,000 87,000 -36,000
Income $1.28 b $2.38 b -$1.1 b
36,000 equals a Westlake in five years
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
5/19
Cuyahoga County is losing middle- andupper-income residents. Many preferinner locations but lack of renewal pushes
them out.
Lack on inner renewal and Cuyahogas
land situation define the way forward.
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
6/19
Cuyahoga: Ohios First Built-out County
After 200 years of development, Cuyahogais virtually built-out. Few green fields areleft in outer suburbs on which to build taxbase.
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
7/19
As Cuyahogas supply ofgreenfield land has shrunk,
development has shifted to adjacent counties*
Cuyahogas Share of
7-County New Housing
(units)
1985 44%
2010 20%
*Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Portage, Summit
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Millionsof
Dollars
Year
Value of New Residential Construction1980-2010
Adjacent Counties
Cuyahoga
Adjacent Counties: Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Portage, and Summit
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
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0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Adjacent Counties
Cuyahoga County
Outer Suburbs
19 Inner Suburbs
Cleveland
Percent (Adj. for inflation)
Change in Value of Residential Real Estate
Average Annual, 1985-2010
Cuyahoga County
Adjacent Counties
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
10/19
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Adjacent Counties
Cuyahoga County
Outer Suburbs
19 Inner Suburbs
Cleveland
Percent (Adj. for inflation)
Change in Value of Commercial Real Estate
Average Annual, 1985-2010
Adjacent Counties
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
11/19
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
1
2
3
4
5
Percent (Adj. for inflation)
Change in Value of Industrial Real Estate
Average Annual, 1985-2010
Adjacent Counties
Cuyahoga County
Outer Suburbs
19 Inner Suburbs
Cleveland
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
12/19
Cuyahoga is on the road to shrinkingtax base, higher taxes, reduced bond
rating while neighboring counties
continue to grow. Cuyahogas decline undermines
economic prospects for the region just
as Clevelands decline did, but on alarger scale.
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
13/19
No Other Option
To prevent worsening decline, redevelopmentand renewal of the countys old core
Cleveland and inner suburbs mustbe a
dominant countywide priority.
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
14/19
Redevelopment and renewal havebeen slight. Why?
Projects need subsidy.
Home rule is taken to mean Its your
problem, you fit it fix obsolete real estate,outdated schools, worn-out recreationfacilities, dying trees, abandoned buildings,
leaking water lines, broken curbs andsidewalks, etc.
Most aged places cant fix it; the load its
too much, even with the best of leadership.
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
15/19
The Issue is the future of the county: core
redevelopment and renewal must Offset the loss of greenfield development.
Offset real estate depreciation anddemolition in the core.
Attract residents and businesses to the
core.
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
16/19
Offset the Loss of Greenfield Development
Normal 7-county market: 10,000 new homes.
Current split: 2,000 in Cuyahoga 8,000 in
other six counties.
Target split (2032): 5,000 in Cuyahoga 5,000in other six.
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
17/19
Cuyahoga County Housing Targets
2032 2017
Outer Suburbs 1,500 1,800
Inner Suburbs 1,000 200
Cleveland 2,500 500
Total 5,000 2,500
Double Downtown Cleveland by 2032Average 250 units per yearResult: population 20,000
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
18/19
Clevelands Future: Gain While Losing
Cleveland will continue to lose low-modhouseholds to suburbs but can gainmiddle- and upper-income households
(< 30 and > 50, no kids).
Job growth and immigrants help (but notthe fundamental problem, which is lack
of core renewal for middle- andupper-income).
8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU
19/19
The Question
Will the 59 jurisdictions in Cuyahoga Countypull together and focus policies, programs andresources on renewing and rebuilding its old
core communities?
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