CLEARING THE AIR…..ON FOGCLEARING THE AIR…..ON FOG
FORECASTING FOG FORECASTING FOG IN IN
ONTARIOONTARIO
Bryan TugwoodProgram Supervisor Ontario Storm Prediction Centre
FOGFOG Now-casting Tools
•Observations – Surface Observing Network (METAR’s)– Upper Air (00Z & 12Z) – Web-cams
•Satellite Imagery– Day: Visible Imagery– Night: Fog Imagery
FOGFOG Prognostic Tools
• Numerical Model Data: – Inference from Sounding data
BUFKIT Fog algorithm GEM BUFR profiles
• Fog Nomograms • Forecaster Experience
– Synoptic correlation (persistence)– Pattern recognition– Climatology
Nowcasting: Observations
surface obs
actual upper air
webcams
Nowcasting: Fog Imagery• The "Fog Image" IR (10.7 um) – NIR (3.9 um)
Nowcasting: OSPC Fog Imagery
Forecasting: Climatology
Forecasting: Climatology
Forecasting: Climatology
Forecasting:
H
1024
H
1020Last Night
Tonight
• Synoptic correlation• Pattern recognition
Model Data: Inference from Prog Soundings
Model Data: SCRIBE Primary forecast generation tool.
Does not have built in algorithm to forecast fog
Fog Formation Nomogram
Tmax=25C
Td = 18C
Tmin = 15C
TXover = 17C
Fog formation ~ 07Z
Fog Nomogram
Td Range (oC) -2 to +2 2 - 5 5 – 9 9 - 14 14 - 21
Cooling blo Td (oC) 5 4 3 2 1
Cooling blo Td required for Fog formation (Td at Tmax)
TXover = Td (at Tmax) – Cooling Blo Td Note: (BUFKIT TXover does not use “cooling blo Td” adjustment. ex. If Td at Tmax = 5, TXover = 1 meanwhile if Td (at Tmax) = 21, TXover = 20.
Fog Dissipation Nomogram
BUFKIT FOG NomogramRADIATION FOG: UPS AIRLINES CONCEPTUAL MODELS AND FORECAST METHODS Randy Baker UPS Airlines, Louisville, KY., Jim Cramer, and Jeff Peters. 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology
1.1. HYDROLAPSEHYDROLAPSE
HLHL
As long as ΔΔHL<0HL<0, Fog usually does not form (except in still air) and often results in only dew or rime on the ground. This likely explains many of the situations involving surface saturation with no fog development.
If HL decreases with height (ΔHL<0), then the transport of watervapor is an upward-directed humidity sink away from the surface.
2. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE (T2. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE (TXOverXOver))
TXOver = the minimum dew point temperature observed during the warmest daytime hours (most representative airmass dewpoint).
If Tmin ~ TXover, generally forecast 1-3 miles visibilities in mist, with a risk for lower visibilities, especially in onshore/upslope. If Tmin <= (TXover- 3oF), generally forecast 1/2 mile visibility or lower, unless turbulent mixing will prevent fog or favour stratus (check mRi)
Tmin > TXoverTmin > TXover
TXoverTXover >Tmin > TXover - 3>Tmin > TXover - 3Tmin < TXover - 3Tmin < TXover - 3
Tmin ~ TXoverTmin ~ TXover
MRi <= 0.025 is "mixy""mixy".. Turbulent boundary layer suppresses cooling and favours stratus rather than fog, if saturation occurs.
MRi between 0.025 and 0.040 is "marginal""marginal"..
For the turbulent dispersal of an existing fog, MRi must decrease to 0.008 or lower.
MRi >= 0.040 is "decoupled""decoupled".. Low-level winds decoupled from winds aloft. Unmixed boundary layer supports strong cooling and favours fog rather than stratus, if saturation occurs.
3. BOUNDARY LAYER TURBULENCE (mRi)3. BOUNDARY LAYER TURBULENCE (mRi)
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