The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS and its Application as ‘CLIMASCOPE’ …. An
Adaptation ToolCommunity Integrated Assessment
System
Rachel Warren, Tyndall Centre
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
• What stakeholders need • What is CIAS?
• Applications of CIAS 1: Avoided impacts
• Applications of CIAS 2: The role of deforestation
• Applications of CIAS 3: The Wallace Initiative
• Application 4 – CLIMASCOPE – the future
OUTLINE
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
• Stakeholders need to know the potential damages, risks and vulnerabilities in impacts sectors resulting from various future climate policies (e.g. carbon tax regimes) compared with no-climate policy scenarios
• They need an assessment of the uncertainties in these projections
• The integrated model CIAS can be used to provide such information
PERCEIVED NEEDS OF USERS(MITIGATION)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
• Stakeholders need to know the potential damages, risks and vulnerabilities in impacts sectors resulting from various future emission scenarios
• Hence they need to know the potential future local/regional climate changes and local/regional climate impacts
• They need an assessment of the uncertainties in these projections, and assistance with dealing with the issue of alternative future emission scenarios
• CIAS can be used to provide such information
PERCEIVED NEEDS OF USERS(ADAPTATION)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
WHAT IS THE COMMUNITY INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT SYSTEM(CIAS) ?
Involves the stakeholder community…!
Web portal
Uncertainty Analysis:
ParametersModules
MULTI:-institutional
-platform-language
Flexibly linked
modularsystem
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
• Set of linked modules that communicate across language/platform barriers
• Different sets (configurations) of modules linked for different applications
• Modules may stay at institutions or be handled at UEA
• Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis: Latin hypercube sampling across pdfs of various statistical forms; alternative GCM patterns, etc
HOW DOES CIAS WORK?
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
EXISTING CIAS WEB PORTAL
• User selection of alternative configurations of modules
• User selection of module parameters• User control of uncertainty analysis• User access control• Viewing of output• Some scientific foolproofing (e.g. ensuring
model cannot run if user tries to use modules inconsistently)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
BASIC STRUCTURE OF CIAS
Emissions
Impacts Downscaledclimate
Climate
Mitigation
Adaptation
Drivers
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
SCM: Simple Climate Model
MAGICC (UEA)
ESM: Emissions of GHG
DSM: DownScaling model
CLIMGEN(UEA)
ICLIPS BiomeShifts (PIK)
0.5 degreeResolutionMaps of SurfaceTemperature And Rainfall
Degree Day Model (Reading)
Wallace Initiative for bioclimaticModelling (CIAT, WWF US)
Emissions scenariogenerator
Hydrological Model, MACWater Stress& Flooding predictors
(Reading)
DIVA (Southampton)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS portal: General view
Task selection area
Working area: The content of this area depends on the selected task
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS portal: Executing a coupling
Select the coupling you want to execute Create an execution context
Select the module you want to configure
Select the parameter you want to configure
Select the type of configuration for the parameterSelect the type of distribution for the parameter
Set the parameters of the distribution function. In this example we use the Davies distribution to emulate Andronova’s PDF for climate sensitivity
Write a name and description for the execution
Start executionSelect the number of samples for the Latin hypercube
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS portal: Managing results
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS Application 1: Avoided Impacts
• Analysis of AVOID scenarios (www.uk.avoid.net)
• Compares policy scenarios with reference
• What climate changes are avoided?
• What impacts are avoided?
• What carbon tax regimes are required to effect these?
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Analysis of global emissions trajectories
Business-as-usual scenario
Policy scenario
1
3
2
4
Varied:1. Peak year for
emissions2. BAU (pre-peak)
emissions3. Emission
reduction rate post-peak
4. Emission floor
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
DOWNSCALER CLIMGEN (UEA)• Pattern scaling based on interpolation btwn 1961-1990,
and 2071-2100 : produces change field• New downscaled climate = change + monthly mean
climate + current variability• 19 different AOGCM patterns• 8 climate variables: min, max & mean
monthly/seasonal/annual temperature, precipitation, vapour pressure, cloud cover, wet-day frequency, and sea-surface temperature
• 0.5 degree resolution
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS Results d: ClimGen: Local temperature rise relative to 1990
(in African National Park at Lat 0, Long 34.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2046
2051
2056
2061
2066
2071
2076
2081
2086
Year
Te
mp
era
ture
ch
an
ge
sin
ce
19
90
C
Stabilisationat 450 ppmCO2
A1 Baselinescenario
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
The earlier the peak in emissions, the greater the avoided impacts
% of impacts avoided
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Incr
ease
dw
ater
scar
city
Flu
vial
floo
dris
k
Coa
stal
floo
dris
k
Coa
stal
man
grov
e
Dec
reas
edcr
opsu
itabi
lity
Soy
bean
prod
uctiv
ity
Coo
ling
requ
irem
ents
% o
f im
pa
cts
av
oid
ed
2016-5-L 2030-5-L
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
010203040
Baseline 550 ppmCO2
500 ppmCO2
450 ppmCO2
CIAS results g: % biome areas transformed in 2100 (ICLIPS)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT
• Climgen monthly timeseries used to drive drought simulations
• SPI index indicates how much modelled rainfall X in month i differs from 1951-2000 mean rainfall in that month, normalised by standard deviation
• Set a threshold value of SPI such that 2-6 drought events in e.g. each of 9 UK regions over 1951-2000 –result 2.4 - is the “current”.
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS results e: # months under drought conditions
CURRENT
550 ppmv,2050-2099
450 ppmv,2050-2099
A1FI HadCM32050-2099
550 ppmv,2050-2099
Observed1951-2000
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS Application 2: Role of tropical deforestation rates in climate policy
• Consider historical emissions to 2000
• Emis-Gen: CO2 reduction policies begin at TS(start)…over
TT(transition) period to reach R/yr, reduce thereafter at R/yr
• Other gases scaled with CO2
• Consider Rmax~3%/yr …for fossil fuel emissions and LUC outside the tropics
• 80% emission reductions from 2000 to 2050 implies 3.1%/yr
• Consider different potential rates of tropical deforestation…zero, business-as-usual, and maximum
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS Application 2. Halting tropical deforestation essential to achieve 2°C target even with stringent
cuts in fossil fuel emissions
020406080
100
0 1 2 3 4
Annual deforestation rate, GtC 2010-2100
Pro
ba
bili
ty o
f n
ot
ex
ce
ed
ing
th
res
ho
ld
2°C
3°C
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Wallace InitiativeMapping the Refugia in a Warming World
TRAFFIC
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS Application 3: Wallace Initiative
• Links downscaled climate projections from CIAS to MaxENT based bioclimatic modelling
• Initial application to identify refugia …– For wild crop types; eco-crops
– For terrestrial species
– For commercial marine species (fish and invertebrates) – in negotiation
• To aid design of future protected area systems
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Application 4: CLIMASCOPEWeb portal at which outputs of CIAS can be accessed
simply. Initially we are making available: • Projections of potential future local/regional
climate changes• Projections of potential future climate impacts • Across a range of emission scenarios and
socioeconomic futures including mitigation scenarios
• Providing information on uncertainty in future projections e.g. sensitivity to GCM pattern used in down-scaling
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CLIMASCOPE DETAIL• 8 climate variables including SST
• Annual, seasonal or monthly output• Users can request mean output over a time slice/ask for
annual time series
• Access to codes not permitted
• Traceable account of origin of data
• Key references and logos of authors/institutions to be credited
• Global commons license
• Training, on line workshops
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CONCLUSION• CIAS is being applied to provide policy relevant
information to adaptation and mitigation planners• CIAS will soon provide free regional climate
projections for adaptation planners via CLIMASCOPE
• Unique in providing free choice of emissions scenarios including mitigation scenarios, uncertainty analysis, and ultimately impact projections
• Since CIAS is a system that links modules together flexibly it can continually grow to cover new regions/sectors as stakeholder demand changes
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