Changing Demographics in Texas
2011 Texas Labor Management Conference
June 22, 2011San Antonio, TX
2
Total Population and Percent Population Changein Texas and the United States, 1850-2010
Year* Texas U.S. Texas U.S. 1850 212,592 23,191,876 --- --- 1860 604,215 31,443,321 184.2 35.6 1870 818,579 39,818,449 35.5 26.6 1880 1,591,749 50,155,783 94.5 26.0 1890 2,235,527 62,947,714 40.4 25.5 1900 3,048,710 75,994,575 36.4 20.7 1910 3,896,542 91,972,266 27.8 21.0 1920 4,663,228 105,710,620 19.7 14.9 1930 5,824,715 122,775,046 24.9 16.1 1940 6,414,824 131,669,275 10.1 7.2 1950 7,711,194 150,697,361 20.2 14.5 1960 9,579,677 179,323,175 24.2 19.0 1970 11,196,730 203,302,031 16.9 13.4 1980 14,229,191 226,545,805 27.1 11.4 1990 16,986,510 248,709,873 19.4 9.8 2000 20,851,820 281,421,906 22.8 13.2 2010 25,145,561 308,745,538 20.6 9.7 * All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year.
3
Growing States, 2000-2010
2000Population*
2010Population*
NumericalChange
2000-2010
PercentChange
2000-2010United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
15.7% of numerical change in U.S.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.
4
Population Change of Fast Growing States between 2000 and 2010
Texas
California
Florid
a
Georgia
North Caro
lina
Arizona
Virginia
Washingto
n
Colorado
Nevada
Tennessee
4,29
3,74
1
3,38
2,30
8
2,81
8,93
2
1,50
1,20
0
1,48
6,17
0
1,26
1,38
5
922,
509
830,
419
727,
935
702,
294
656,
822
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
5
Percent ChangeDue to
Year* PopulationNumerical
ChangeNatural
IncreaseNet
MigrationPercentChange
NaturalIncrease
NetMigration
1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- -- -- --1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 1,754,652 113,831 24.2 93.91 6.091970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1,402,683 214,370 16.9 86.74 13.261980 14,229,191 3,032,461 1,260,794 1,771,667 27.1 41.58 58.421990 16,986,510 2,757,319 1,815,670 941,649 19.9 65.85 34.152000 20,851,820 3,865,310 1,919,281 1,946,029 22.8 49.65 50.352009 24,782,302 3,930,484 2,124,124 1,781,785 18.8 54.04 45.33
* All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 is for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009
6
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2000 to 2001
2001 to 2002
2002 to 2003
2003 to 2004
2004 to 2005
2005 to 2006
2006 to 2007
2007 to 2008
2008 to 2009
InternationalState-to-State
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates
Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009
7
Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity
Net domesti
c migr
ation
International
migrati
onTotal
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
44%24% 33%
28%50% 40%
23% 8% 15%
5%18% 12%
OtherBlackHispanicWhite
67% of all migrants
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau
(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)
52% of all migrants were international
8
Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center
Legend-20 to -45%
-19 to -10%
-9 to -5%
-4 to 0%
1 to 5 %
6 to 20%
21 to 30%
31 to 65%
9
Legend0-1%
1-2.5%
2.5-3.5%
3.5-5%
5-10%
Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010
NH White53%
NH Black12%
NH Other
4%
Hispanic or Latino
32%
2000
NH White45%
NH Black11%
NH Other
6%
His-panic or Latino38%
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
11
0-4 yrs
5-9 yrs
10-14 yrs
15-19 yrs
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs
35-39 yrs
40-44 yrs
45-49 yrs
50-54 yrs
55-59 yrs
60-64 yrs
65-69 yrs
70-74 yrs
75-79 yrs
80-84 yrs
85+ yrs
1,200,000 800,000 400,000 0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000
Anglo Male Hispanic Male Black Male Other Male Anlgo Female Hispanic Female
Black Female Other Female
Projected Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009
12
0-4 yrs
5-9 yrs
10-14 yrs
15-19 yrs
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs
35-39 yrs
40-44 yrs
45-49 yrs
50-54 yrs
55-59 yrs
60-64 yrs
65-69 yrs
70-74 yrs
75-79 yrs
80-84 yrs
85+ yrs
800000 400000 0 400000 800000
Anglo Male Anlgo Female
Projected Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009
0-4 yrs
5-9 yrs
10-14 yrs
15-19 yrs
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs
35-39 yrs
40-44 yrs
45-49 yrs
50-54 yrs
55-59 yrs
60-64 yrs
65-69 yrs
70-74 yrs
75-79 yrs
80-84 yrs
85+ yrs
800000 400000 0 400000 800000
Hispanic Male Black Male Other Male Hispanic Female Black FemaleOther Female
13
Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2009
<5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65+
34.237.5 38.1 38.5 39.6 38.2 37.2
40.744.7
51.356.1
59.262.9
68.3
50.846.9
44.8 43.9 43.546.2 47.3
42.237.5
31.427.1
24.822.8
19.7
Anglo Hispanic
14
Educational attainment of persons 25+ years of age by ethnicity, Texas, 2009
Non-Hispanic WhiteHispanic
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
8%43%
25%
25%33%
21%34%
11%
Bachelor's degree or higherSome college or as-sociate's degreeHigh school graduate, GED, or alternativeLess than high school diploma
Source: American Community Survey, 2009
15
Total Population by County, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Counts
Legendco48_d00'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10
82 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,001
100,001 - 500,001
500,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 - 4,100,000
16
Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
Legendco48_d00'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010
-3,200 - 0
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 700,000
17
Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010
Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
Water'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010
-20%-0%
1%-10%
10.1-25%
25.1%-50%
50.1%-82%
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys
-3 to -0.5
-0.49 to -.001
0
.001 to .5
.51-2.1
18Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections
Year
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040
19
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
AngloBlackHispanicOther
Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 2000-2007 Migration Scenario
Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040
2040 PopulationP_40
36 - 1000
1001 - 10000
10001 - 50000
50001 - 100000
100001 - 500000
500001 - 1000000
1000001 - 8000000
Projected population by county, Texas, 2040
Texas State Data Center, vintage 2008 population projections. Migration scenario 2 (2000-2007).
Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008-2040
$18,000-30,000
$ 30,000-35,000
$ 35,000-40,000
$40,000-50,000
$ 50,000-76,000
Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
Percent of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living Under Poverty for During Past 12 Months, 2005-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
5-20%
20-30%
30-40%
40-55%
24
Texas Business-Cycle Index
25
Texas Total Nonfarm EmploymentQuarterly Growth
26
Texas and U.S. Unemployment Rate
27
Median Income by Age in the United States, 2009
15 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and over
$29,893
$50,312
$65,196
$75,707$71,650
$43,702
28
Numbers of Texas Inmigrants and Outmigrants Age 25 Years or Older by Educational Attainment, 2009
Less than 9th
9-12, No DiplomaHigh School
Some College
Associates Degree
Bachelors Degree
Advanced Degree -
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
30,743 31,720
79,490
70,981
19,675
68,012
43,181
6,568
13,746
42,587 41,645
12,303
35,445
24,790
Foreign and Domestic Inmigrants Domestic Outmigrants
29
Average Texas Annual Occupational Earnings in Constant 2006 Dollars by Preferred Education for Employed Persons by Standard Occupational
Classification, 1997 & 2006
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$26,711.06 $35,191.32
$57,200.11 $68,567.08
$27,081.67 $38,670.68
$65,641.10
$87,692.27
1997 2006
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor Occupational Statistics Survey (OES), 1997 and 2006; and, Labor Market and Career Information, Texas Workforce Commission, Occupational Wages and Projections, 2006-2016
30
Texas employment by industrial sector, 2008
Utilities
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting
Management of Companies & Enterprises
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
Information
Mining, Quarrying, & Oil & Gas Extraction
Other Services Ex Government
Transportation & Warehousing
Finance & Insurance
Wholesale Trade
Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services
Administrative & Waste Services
Government
Construction
Accommodation & Food Services
Manufacturing
Educational Services, Public & Private
Retail Trade
Health Care & Social Assistance
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, www.tracer2.com
31
Projected percent employment growth by industry in Texas between, 2008-2018
Manufacturing
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting
Information
Wholesale Trade
Mining, Quarrying, & Oil & Gas Extraction
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
Transportation & Warehousing
Retail Trade
Finance & Insurance
Utilities
Other Services Ex Government
Government
Administrative & Waste Services
Construction
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation
Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services
Management of Companies & Enterprises
Accommodation & Food Services
Educational Services, Public & Private
Health Care & Social Assistance
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
-1.6%
1.7%
7.8%
8.5%
10.2%
11.6%
11.7%
11.9%
13.0%
13.2%
15.8%
17.2%
17.9%
19.2%
21.1%
22.7%
24.1%
24.2%
29.5%
31.2%
17.0%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, www.tracer2.com
32
Legal OccupationsLife, Physical, & Social Science OccupationsCommunity & Social Services Occupations
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media OccupationsFarming, Fishing, & Forestry OccupationsArchitecture & Engineering Occupations
Protective Service OccupationsComputer & Mathematical Occupations
Healthcare Support OccupationsBuilding & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Occupations
Personal Care & Service OccupationsInstallation, Maintenance, & Repair Occupations
Business & Financial Operations OccupationsHealthcare Practitioners & Technical Occupations
Construction & Extraction OccupationsProduction Occupations
Education, Training, & Library OccupationsTransportation & Material Moving Occupations
Management OccupationsFood Preparation & Serving Related Occupations
Sales & Related OccupationsOffice & Administrative Support Occupations
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Texas employment by occupation, 2008
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, www.tracer2.com
33
Total, All OccupationsProduction Occupations
Management OccupationsTransportation & Material Moving Occupations
Farming, Fishing, & Forestry OccupationsSales & Related Occupations
Office & Administrative Support OccupationsArchitecture & Engineering Occupations
Installation, Maintenance, & Repair OccupationsBuilding & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Occupations
Construction & Extraction OccupationsLegal Occupations
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media OccupationsComputer & Mathematical Occupations
Life, Physical, & Social Science OccupationsProtective Service Occupations
Business & Financial Operations OccupationsCommunity & Social Services Occupations
Food Preparation & Serving Related OccupationsPersonal Care & Service Occupations
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical OccupationsEducation, Training, & Library Occupations
Healthcare Support Occupations
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
17.0%3.7%
8.7%8.8%
10.1%12.5%
13.4%14.0%
14.8%15.4%16.0%16.1%
17.3%19.5%
20.9%21.2%21.6%21.6%
25.6%26.9%
28.8%31.9%
36.5%
Projected percent employment growth by occupation in Texas between, 2008-2018
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, www.tracer2.com
Ethnic Diversity of the Population, Householders, and Labor Force in Texas, 2000 and 2040*
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
53.1%
11.6%32.0%
3.3%
61.4%
11.4% 24.2%
3.0%
58.4%
10.7% 27.5%
3.4%
24.2%7.9%
59.1%
8.8%
29.0%9.0%
52.8%
9.2%
25.2%7.9%
58.7%
8.2%
Anglo Black Hispanic Other
2000 Population
2040 Population
2000 Householders
2040 Householders
2000 Civilian Labor Force
2040 Civilian Labor Force
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
18.8
29 28.7
18.2
5.3
30.128.7
23.9
12.9
4.4
No High School Diploma
High School Graduate
Some College
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate/Prof.Degree
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Percent
2000 2040
Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040*(in 2000 Dollars)
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
$54,441
$52,639
$50,903
$49,326$47,883
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under
Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
$251
$621
$765
$938
$210
$528$629
$752
2000Base Values
2040 Assuming2000 Attainment
Differentials
2040 Assuming1990-2000 Trends
in Differentials
2040 AssumingAnglo Trends
Apply to all Groups
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
Billions
Aggregate Income Consumer Expenditures
38
Summary
39
Conclusions
1.Population growth has been a part of Texas’ history.2.Population and economic trends favor a continuing
expansion of the Texas labor force.3.Higher education levels bring more earnings and greater
opportunities.4.There continue to be significant gaps between the
educational attainment levels of Anglos and non-Anglos.5.We don’t know whether this trend will persist in the future.
But for those of us who believe that an educated workforce is a key to Texas’ future, it should be a cause for concern.
25 Million Reasons to be Proud of Texas (among a few more)
Demographic Highlights TEXAS is:
big. The population of Texas is the second largest in the United States, exceeding 25 million people in 2010.7
young. Approximately 28% of Texas’ population is under 18 and only 10% of the population is older than 65 years.1
Webb County in Texas, has the youngest population in the U.S. with children younger than 5 comprising 12.8% of the population.8
embracing of culture and diversity. Approximately 9 million or 38% of Texans are of Hispanic descent, 2.8 million or
12% are African Americans, and 1 million or 4% are other (non-Anglo mainly of Asian descent).1 In about a decade, it is expected that Texas’ population will have more persons of Hispanic descent than any other racial or ethnic group.4
a desired place to live and work. Net in-migration to Texas accounts for almost half of the population growth in
recent years.1 More than 171,900 college graduates moved into Texas each year between 2006 and 2008, placing Texas as 2nd in the Nation by this measure.
urban. Texas has three of the top 10 largest cities in the Nation.3 Several of the metropolitan areas in Texas are among the most rapidly growing in the Nation.5
Data sources: 1. Texas State Data Center, Population Estimates; 2. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; 3. U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 4. Texas State Data Center, Population Projections;
5. U.S. Census Bureau, Metropolitan Statistical Area Estimates; 6. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 7. U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
40
25 Million Reasons to be Proud of Texas (among a few more)
Demographic Highlights TEXAS is:
rural. Texas is the second largest state in the Nation in terms of square miles (268,601) and approximately 17% of the population lives in rural areas.1
a working state. Texas has a civilian labor force of more than twelve million workers and an unemployment rate lower than in most States.6
family oriented. Texas ranks 3rd among states for the percent of households which are married-couple families with children (24.4%).2
multigenerational. Texas ranks 3rd among states for percent of households which are multigenerational (4.5%).2 growing – fast. Texas gained more population than any other state in the last estimate year (between 2000 and
2010), adding 4,293,741 people.7 Among cities over 100,000 population in the U.S., 4 of the 10 fastest growing areas are in Texas (2007-2008 change).7
41Data sources: 1. Texas State Data Center, Population Estimates; 2. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; 3. U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 4. Texas State Data Center, Population Projections; 5. U.S. Census Bureau, Metropolitan Statistical Area Estimates; 6. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 7. U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
42
Contact
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
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