CAREER PEAKS
IN THE NETHERLANDS
FOR LABOUR MARKET ENTRY COHORTS FROM THE
1950s 1960s, 1970sTesting Goldthorpe’s assumption of occupational maturity around age 35
MAARTEN WOLBERSRADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN
RUUD LUIJKX TILBURG UNIVERSITY
WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN
RC 28
YALE UNIVERSITY
NEW HAVEN
AUGUST 3-6, 2009
FOUR RC28 GENERATIONS (GANZEBOOM, TREIMAN & ULTEE 1989)
FIRST LIPSET TWO-MOMENT DATA PERCENTAGES
SECOND DUNCAN THREE-MOMENT DATA PATH MODELS
THIRD HAUSER- FOUR-MOMENT DATA GOLDTHORPE LOG-LINEAR MODELS
FOURTH MAYER- FULL JOB HISTORIES BLOSSFELD EVENT MODELS
THIS PAPER IS A FOURTH GENERATION PAPER
THE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GENERATIONS :
LATER GENERATIONS SAY OF EARLIER ONES
THAT THEIR QUESTIONS
POSE THE ISSUE POORLY (DUNCAN) ,
ARE NOT DETAILED ENOUGH (HAUSER) ,
NOT SPECIFIED PROPERLY (BLOSSFELD)
THE FOURTH GENERATION UNTIL NOW BYPASSED THE QUESTION OF CAREER PEAKS
PRIME DUTCH FOURTH GENERATION STUDY
PAUL DE GRAAF 1992
RETROSPECTIVE JOB HISTORIES FOR 427 MEN COLLECTED IN 1982
AVERAGE OCCUPATIONAL STATUS FOR THREE COHORTS AFTER THE NUMBER OF YEARS SINCE LABOUR MARKET ENTRY
STATUS RISES DURING A LIFETIME AND IS HIGHER FOR LATER COHORTS
YETTHE QUESTION OF THEAGE AT WHICH AN
INDIVIDUAL’S CAREER PEAKS HAS SOME PERTINENCE
ACCORDING TO GOLDTHORPE (1981: 51-52) THE CAREERS OF MOST INDIVIDUALS HAVE
MATURED AROUND AGE 35
THE OCCUPATIONAL MATURITY ASSUMPTION ALLOWS FOR ANSWERING
QUESTIONS ABOUT TRENDS WITH DATA FROM ONE SURVEY ONLY
THE QUESTION :HAS THE AGE AT WHICH A PERSON’S CAREER PEAKS
SHIFTED UP OR DOWN WITH EACH NEW LABOUR MARKET
ENTRY COHORT ?
IS A SECOND GENERATION
QUESTION
IT SHOULD BE REPLACED BY THE FOURTH GENERATION
QUESTION :
AFTER OVERVIEWING A PERSON’S JOB HISTORY AND DETERMINING THIS PERSON’S PEAK,
ARE THE ODDS FOR THIS PERSON TO HAVE MOVED IN A CERTAIN PERIOD FROM NON-PEAK
TO PEAK
HIGHER , THE SAME , OR LOWER IF THIS PERSON BELONGS TO A LATER LABOUR MARKET ENTRY
COHORT ?
THE GOLDTHORPE HYPOTHESIS :
THE EFFECTS OF FACTORS LIKE
FATHER’S OCCUPATIONAL STATUS ,
EDUCATION ,
STATUS FIRST OCCUPATION
AND NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
ON THE AGE AT WHICH MEN REACH THEIR PEAK
HAVE MORE OR LESS RUN OUT BEFORE AGE 35
THIS PAPER’S ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS :
THE EFFECTS OF THE FACTORS
AGE (MONTHS ON THE LABOUR MARKET)
EDUCATION
AND NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
ON MOVING DURING SOME FIXED PERIOD FROM NON-PEAK TO PEAK
IMPLY HIGHER ODDS OF PEAKING AFTER AGE 35
MORE IF THIS PAPER’S HYPOTHESES :
PERSONS DURING A FIXED PERIOD ARE MORE LIKELY TO SHIFT TO THEIR PEAK
IF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THAT PERIOD WAS LOWER
IF THAT PERSON IS OLDER (HAS BEEN LONGER ON THE LABOUR MARKET)
IF THAT PERSON HAS MORE EDUCATION
IF THAT PERSON’S FATHER HAD A HIGHER STATUS
IF THAT PERSON’S FIRST JOB HAD A HIGHER STATUS
THIS PAPER’S DATASERIES OF FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH POPULATION
WITH NEW SAMPLES FOR
1993
1998
2000
2003
TO BE ADDED 2009
PLUS HIN 2005
RETROSPECTIVE JOB HISTORIES FOR MEN AND WOMEN AGED 18-70
HERE SELECTED :
ALL MEN AT LEAST AGED 45 AT TIME OF INTERVIEW
WOMEN DESERVE SEPARATE TREATMENT
IT WOULD BE UNWISE AND UNNECESSARY TO SELECT ONLY
MEN WHO HAVE DEFINITIVELY RETIRED FROM THE LABOUR
MARKET
20
30
40
50
60
70
Occ
upat
iona
l Sta
tus
0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480
LM Entry cohort 1950s LM Entry cohort 1960s
LM Entry cohort 1970s
THE CLASSICAL GRAPH FOR THE PRESENT DUTCH DATA SET :
FOR LATER COHORTS,
AVERAGE ENTRY OCCUPATIONAL STATUS , MEASURED AS ISEI RANGING FROM 10 TO 90 , RISES
BUT PEAKS EARLIER WITH INCREASING NUMBER OF MONTHS ON THE LABOUR MARKET
ANOTHER CLASSICAL GRAPH
20
30
40
50
60
70
Occ
upat
iona
l Sta
tus
0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480
Primary and Lower Secondary Higher Secondary
Tertiary
AVERAGE OCCUPATIONAL STATUS
INCREASES MOST FOR MEN WITH SECONDARY EDUCATION,
AND LEAST FOR MEN WITH TERTIARY EDUCATION
DETERMINE FOR EACH MAN HIS CAREER PEAK
NOW MAKE A MEN-MONTHS FILE
DETERMINE WHETHER A MAN AT THE BEGINNING OF A MONTH IS AT THE PEAK OF HIS CAREER
IF YES, DELETE THESE CASES
IF NO, DETERMINE WHETHER THIS MAN AT THE END OF A MONTH IS AT HIS PEAK
TAKE AGE OF THE MAN OR THE NUMBER OF MONTHS SINCE LABOUR MARKET ENTRY AS A
TIME-DEPENDENT COVARIATE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
enta
ge n
ot a
t max
0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480
LM Entry cohort 1950s LM Entry cohort 1960s
LM Entry cohort 1970s
PERTINENT GRAPH
50% OF THE 1950s COHORT MEN IS AT THEIR PEAK WITHIN 90 MONTHS
50% OF THE 1960s COHORT MEN IS AT THEIR PEAK WITHIN 60 MONTHS
50% OF THE 1970s COHORT MEN IS AT THEIR PEAK WITHIN 30 MONTHS
OF THE MEN IN THE 1970s COHORT,
AFTER 300 MONTHS
ABOUT 40% PERCENT IS NOT AT THEIR PEAK
THIS MEANS THAT QUESTIONS ON MAKING THE PEAK
SHOULD BE COMPLEMENTED WITH QUESTIONS
ON SLIDING FROM THE PEAK
GOLDTHORPE’S MATURATION NOTION :
MATURATION NOT ONLY AS STAYING AT A PEAK
BUT ALSO AS BELOW EARLY PEAK STABILIZATION ?
MEAK PEAK AGE FOR SIX LEVELS OF EDUCATION :
PRIMARY 34.5
LOWER SECUNDARY 33.9
INTERMEDIATE SECUNDARY 33.8
HIGHER SECUNDARY 32.6
LOWER TERTIARY 34.7
HIGHER TERTIARY 34.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
enta
ge n
ot a
t max
0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480
Primary and Lower Secondary Higher Secondary
Tertiary
ANOTHER PERTINENT GRAPH
OF MEN WITH PR + LS EDUCATION, 50% AT PEAK WITHIN 50 MONTHS
OF MEN WITH IS + HS EDUCATION, 50% AT PEAK WITHIN 50 MONTHS
OF MEN WITH TERTIARY EDUCATION, 50% AT PEAK WITHIN 100 MONTHS
SECOND GENERATION MODEL FOR THE LINEAR REGRESSION OF THE AGE AT WHICH A CAREER PEAKS ON VARIOUS FACTORS
N = 1163
SIGN COEF SE
CONST ** 34.423 1.545
FOCC ns -.016 .020
EDU2 ns -.326 1.105
EDU3 ns -.361 1.157
EDU4 ns -.915 1.731
EDU5 ns .952 1.231
EDU6 ns 1.388 1.473
FISTOCC ns .018 .023
COHORT2 ns -.749 .672
COHORT3 ** -2.340 .991
ONLY ONE SIGNIFICANT PARAMETER
THAT ONE IS FOR COHORT3
IF THE STATUS OF THE FIRST JOB IS DROPPED
AND IF THE STATUS OF THE FIRST JOB AND THE DUMMIES
FOR EDUCATION ARE DROPPED
STILL ONLY COHORT3 IS SIGNIFICANT
FOURTH GENERATION MODEL FOR THE LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF REMAINING BELOW PEAK AGAINST PEAKING ON VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING AGE
N = 208,546 , ONE-LEVEL MODEL
SIGN COEF SE
CONS ** -6.823 .336
FOCC ns .001 .002
EDU2 ns .046 .109
EDU3 ns .110 .114
EDU4 ns .202 .174
EDU5 ns .138 .124
EDU6 ns .170 .149
FISTOCC ns .000 .002
AGE ** .035 .018
AGE SQUARED ns .000 .000
COHORT2 ** .149 .067
COHORT3 ** .488 .088
SIGNIFICANT PARAMETERS FOR AGE AND FOR THE TWO
COHORTS
FOURTH GENERATION MODEL FOR THE LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF REMAINING BELOW PEAK AGAINST PEAKING ON VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING AGE
N = 208,546 , ONE-LEVEL MODEL
SIGN COEF SE
CONS ** -7.174 .352
FOCC ns .002 .002
EDU2 ns .067 .109
EDU3 ns .146 .114
EDU4 ns .253 .173
EDU5 ns .100 .123
EDU6 * .277 .147
FISTOCC ns - .003 .002
AGE ** .064 .019
AGE SQUARED ns -.000 .000
UNEMPRATE ** -.027 .012
NEXT TO SIGNIFICANT
PARAMETERS FOR AGE AND FOR
HIGHEST EDUCATION
SIGNIFICANT PARAMETER FOR TIME-DEPENDENT
NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE
FOURTH GENERATION MODEL FOR THE LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF REMAINING BELOW PEAK AGAINST PEAKING
ON VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING MONTHS SINCE ENTERING THE LABOUR MARKET
N = 208,546 , ONE-LEVEL MODEL
SIGN COEF SE
CONS ** -6.097 .164
FOCC ns .003 .002
EDU2 ns .106 .110
EDU3 ** .224 .115
EDU4 ** .437 .174
EDU5 ** .306 .123
EDU6 ** .669 .148
FISTOCC ns .001 .002
MONTHS ns .001 .000
M SQUARED ** 6.24e-06 1.79e-06
UNEMPRATE ns -.003 .011
MORE EDUCATION
PARAMETERS ARE SIGNIFICANT
BUT THE UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE NOW IS INSIGNIFICANT
EFFECTS HAVE THE PREDICTED
SIGN
FOURTH GENERATION MODEL FOR THE LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF REMAINING BELOW PEAK AGAINST PEAKING ON VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING MONTHS SINCE ENTERING
THE LABOUR MARKET N = 208,546 , TWO-LEVEL MODEL
SIGN COEF SE
CONS ** -7.136 .409
FOCC ** .007 .003
EDU2 ns .109 .186
EDU3 ** .413 .201
EDU4 ** .882 .318
EDU5 ** .599 .221
EDU6 ** 1.259 .289
FISTOCC ns .002 .003
MONTHS ** .008 .002
M SQUARED ns 4.68e-06 2.76e-06
UNEMPRATE ** -.040 .016
AFTER CORRECTION FOR
GROUPING OF MONTHS WITHIN
PERSONS (WITH STATA),
YET MORE SIGNIFICANT
PARAMETERS
INCLUDING FATHER’S
OCCUPATIONAL STATUS AND
NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE
RUNNING MODELS HAS NOT PROGRESSED FAR ENOUGH
TO SIMULATE THEM FOR
THE EFFECT OF CHANGES IN VARIOUS CONDITIONS
ON THE PERCENT OF PERSONS WHO PEAK
BEFORE AGE 35
INTERACTION TERMS SHOULD BE INCLUDED
FIRST
Top Related