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1. Planning Your Campaign
2. Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters
3. Understanding Past Election Results & Trends4. Calculating Your Win Number
5. Selecting Target Groups
6. Knowing the Issues that Matter7. Planning Your Messages & Outreach Strategies
8. Creating your Budget & Campaign Plan
Overview
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There are three finite resources in every campaign
People Time
Money
The best way to combat these limitations is through
careful planning and focusing your resources on target groups
of likely voters that you can win over and turn out to the polls.
Our Starting Premise -
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Campaign Planning at a Glance
Campaigning for General ElectionSeptember to November ‘09
Campaigning for Primary ElectionAugust to Early September ‘09
Fighting Challenges to PetitionsMid-July to Early August
Petitioning TimeJune to Mid-July
Fine-tuning your campaign plan & budget
Designing your campaign materials Gathering & training your petitioning team
January to May
Assembling your campaign team
Analyzing your district & identifying your
target groups Fundraising
October to December
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Analysis of Hypothetical “Council District 99”
Total Population: 165,000 Total Voters: 80,000
Total DemocraticVoters: 60,000
Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters ** Most public officials are elected by a small, unique set of voters **
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Analysis of Hypothetical “Council District 99”
Total Democratic Voters: 60,000 Prime DemocraticVoters: 18,000
Likely Voters for CityCouncil Race: 12,000
( About 1 in 14 people
living in district)
Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters ** Most public officials are elected by a small, unique set of voters **
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Voter Lists Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters
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Voter Lists
Key considerations
Get data in a format that is easy to work with & manipulate
Get lists that are filtered by voter history (i.e. Prime, Double
Prime, Triple Prime)
Should include gender and age
Ethnicity and phone numbers can be added Use this data to generate statistics about who your prime
voters are and where they live
Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters
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Voter Lists
Gender Analysis
Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters
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Voter Lists
Gender Breakdown by Age
Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters
60%40%1,43894175+
59%41%3,1022,19360-74
58%42%3,6652,69645-59
66%34%1,94998630-44
63%37%64638418-29
Female %Male %Female PrimeMale PrimeAge
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Voter Lists
Age Analysis
Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters
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Voter Lists
Race/Ethnic Analysis
Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters
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Voter Lists
Key Findings from Prime Voter Analysis
Large female vote, particularly concentrated under age 45
Youth vote appears minimal
Over half of prime voters (52%) are of family age
Ethnically diverse with a number of potential subgroups
including African-American, Caribbean, Latino, South Asianand Jewish voters
Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters
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Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters
Geographical Analysis of Council District 99
Divided into 100 Election Districts
About 600 registeredDemocrats in each
Roughly 3-5 cityblocks in size
One voting booth
per electiondistrict
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Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters
Geographical Analysis of Council District 99
Concentration of Prime Voters
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Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters
Geographical Analysis of Council District 99
Concentration of African-American & Caribbean Voters
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Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters
Geographical Analysis of Council District 99
Concentration of Prime Caucasian & Jewish Voters
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Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters
Geographical Analysis of Council District 99
Concentration of Hispanic Voters
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Past Primary Turnout
Understanding Past Election Results & Trends
6%62,5003,7502008
4%59,0002,3602007
15%60,5009,0752006
12%62,0007,4402005
7%63,0004,41020044%60,0002,4002003
8%61,0004,8802002
18%62,00011,1602001
TurnoutEnrollmentVotes Cast
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Understanding Past Election Results & Trends
Trends in Primary Turnout & Enrollment
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2009 Projections for Council District 99
Expected Enrollment: 64,000
Expected Turnout: 18%
Expected Voters: 11,520
Win Numbers
2 candidates: 6,106 (53%)
3 candidates: 4,147 (36%)
4 candidates: 3,226 (28%)
5 candidates: 2,650 (23%)
Understanding Past Election Results & Trends
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Understanding Past Election Results & Trends
Past Election Results
Votes Received by Incumbent in 2001
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Understanding Past Election Results & Trends
Past Election Results
Votes Received by Incumbent in 2005
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Understanding Past Election Results & Trends
Past Election Results
Fernando Ferrer Votes in 2005 Mayoral Primary
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Past Election Results
Key Findings from Analysis
Incumbent support concentrated in a handful of electiondistricts
African-American support for incumbent is feeble and not aguarantee for incumbent
Ferrer campaign provides possible model to winning district
with multi-ethnic coalition of voters
Understanding Past Election Results & Trends
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Sample Variables to Consider
Selecting Target Groups
Demographic Age Gender
Families Race/Ethnicity
Religion
Geographic Neighborhood
Long-time Residents
Socio-Economic Income level Union membership
Rent vs. Own Public housing residents
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Translating Target Groups into Vote Projections
# Prime Voters in Group x Expected Support = Vote Projection
Selecting Target Groups
4,376
- 1,094Minus Overlap
5,470Combined Total1,12040%2,8005. Neighborhood X
1,03840%2,5954. Women Under 45
64040%1,6003. Caribbean Community
80040%2,0002. Minority Families
1,87260%3,1201. Hispanic Community
VotesExpected SupportPrime VotersTarget Group
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My Neighborhood Statistics
http://gis.nyc.gov/ops/mmr/address.jsp
Detailed 311 Reports
http://www.nyc.gov/html/doitt/html/about/about_311_local_law.shtml
Community Board District Profiles
http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/html/lucds/cdstart.shtml
Lists of Selected Facilities and Program Sites (including schools, parks,public safety, health, mental health and other social service facilities)
Also request the Community Board’s annual Needs Statement, which isavailable from the Community Board or Dept of City Planning
Knowing the Issues that Matter
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Key Tips
Plan your strategies based on what makes logical sense for eachtarget groups
Reach out to target groups with information on the issues they care
about During your voter contacts, always try to collect information to
append your voter file – most importantly, flag your die-hardsupporters, the persuadable voters and your opponent’s die-hard
supporters
Overlap a variety of tactics including door-to-door outreach, directmail and phone calls to maximize the impact of each message.
Planning Your Messages & Outreach Strategies
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Example of a Well-Planned, Themed Outreach Effort
1. Direct mail piece on day-care and early childhood education sentto your target groups of women under 45 and minority families
Details your positions and demonstrates your commitment to the issue
Includes high-quality photos of you and your family that readerscan relate to
References a specific website where readers can go to learn more
2. Website “landing page” that is specific to day-care and earlychildhood education and gathers information about visitors (includesemail, phone number, etc)
Planning Your Messages & Outreach Strategies
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Example of a Well-Planned, Themed Outreach Effort
3. Phone calls to voters asking them if they received your mailing andtelling them that you’ll be in front of the local schools meeting withparents all week if they’d like to talk more.
4. On-the-street voter outreach in front of the local schools at thestart and end of the day when parents are dropping off and picking uptheir kids.
5. Letter-to-the-editor campaign targeted a local papers that stressesthe need to improve day-care and early childhood education in yourcommunity and proposed a set of specific changes.
Planning Your Messages & Outreach Strategies
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Review of what we’ve done
1. Identified & Analyzed Likely Voters
2. Looked at Past Election Results & Trends
3. Calculated a Win Number
4. Selected Target Groups & Created Vote Projections
5. Analyzed the Issues & Created Outreach Strategies
Next Step
Calculating the cost of outreach strategies and charting
out the steps on your campaign calendar
Creating your Budget & Campaign Plan
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Questions for Consideration when Budgeting
Are you hiring staff or paying consultants to manage your day-to-day operations?
How much direct mail are you planning?
Does your audience of prime voters necessitate high-tech webpresence?
Do you have a good bookkeeper and treasurer to manage your
accounting books and prepare your campaign finance reports?
Are you accounting for shipping fees on your print materials?
Creating your Budget & Campaign Plan
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Budget Breakdown
Creating your Budget & Campaign Plan
Campaign Expenditures by Category
19%
3%
13%
9%
27%
29%
Admin & Campaign Management Research
Legal Fees Direct Mail & Communications
Field Organization Fundraising
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Creating your Budget & Campaign Plan
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Our Contact Information:
Grassroots Initiative
Address: 224 W. 4th Street NY, NY 10014
Phone: 212.400.0531
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.gograssroots.org
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