Canada'sRealEstateSector,Mortgages&HouseholdDebt,andResiden;alPropertyValues
KeyGDP&EmploymentIndicators
ChartspreparedbytheNeighbourhoodChangeResearchPartnership.RichardMaaranen,DataAnalyst.DavidHulchanski,PrincipalInves;gator.
18December2016www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
DATASOURCES
CanadianSocioeconomicDatabase(CANSIM)atStatisticsCanadahttp://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim
RealEstateSectorEmploymentandGDPData1. CANSIMTable379-0031-Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)atbasicprices,byNorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS),monthly
(dollarsx1,000,000)
2. CANSIMTable282-0008-Labourforcesurveyestimates(LFS),byNorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS),sexandagegroup,annual(personsunlessotherwisenoted)
3. NationalHouseholdSurvey2011–NHSTable99-012-X2011030.PlaceofWorkStatus(5),Industry-NorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS)2007(102),Sex(3)andAgeGroups(11)fortheEmployedLabourForceAged15YearsandOver,inPrivateHouseholdsofCanada,Provinces,CMAs.https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/dp-pd/dt-td/Index-eng.cfm
4. Census2001-BasicCross-TabulationTable97C0031.PlaceofWorkStatus(7),Industry-1997NorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(21)andWorkActivity(4)forEmployedLabourForce15YearsandOver,forCensusMetropolitanAreas,CensusAgglomerationsandCensusTractsofResidence.http://data.library.utoronto.ca/content/census-canada-2001-basic-cross-tabulations-bcts
MortgageCreditBalanceandInterestRatesData1. CANSIMTable176-0069-Residentialmortgagecredit,outstandingbalancesofmajorprivateinstitutionallenders,BankofCanada,monthly
(dollarsx1,000,000)
2. CANSIMTable027-0015-CanadaMortgageandHousingCorporation,conventionalmortgagelendingrate,5-yearterm,monthly(percent)
HouseholdMortgageDebt,ConsumerDebt&DisposableIncomeData1. CANSIMTable380-0073-Selectedindicators-Households,quarterly(dollarsunlessotherwisenoted)
2. CANSIMTable380-0019-Sectoraccounts,personsandunincorporatedbusinesses,annual(dollarsunlessotherwisenoted)
3. CANSIMTable378-0051-Nationalbalancesheet,personsandunincorporatedbusiness,annual(dollarsx1,000,000)
4. CANSIMTable378-0121-NationalBalanceSheetAccounts,quarterly(dollarsx1,000,000)
PropertyValuesandPopulation1. CANSIMTable026-0018-Residentialpropertyvalues,byprovince,territoryandcensusmetropolitanarea(CMA),annual(dollarsx
1,000,000)
2. CANSIMTable051-0056-Estimatesofpopulationbycensusmetropolitanarea,sexandagegroupforJuly1,basedontheStandardGeographicalClassification(SGC)2011,annual(persons)
DEFNITIONSofrelevanteconomicsectors
NorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS)Canada2012http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p3VD.pl?Function=getVDPage1&db=imdb&dis=2&adm=8&TVD=118464
53-RealEstateandrentalandleasingThissectorcomprisesestablishmentsprimarilyengagedinrenting,leasingorotherwiseallowingtheuseoftangibleorintangibleassets.Establishmentsprimarilyengagedinmanagingrealestateforothers;selling,rentingand/orbuyingofrealestateforothers;andappraisingrealestate,arealsoincluded.
52-FinanceandinsuranceThissectorcomprisesestablishmentsprimarilyengagedinfinancialtransactions(thatis,transactionsinvolvingthecreation,liquidation,orchangeinownershipoffinancialassets)orinfacilitatingfinancialtransactions.Includedare:• establishmentsthatareprimarilyengagedinfinancialintermediation.Theyraisefundsbytakingdepositsand/orissuingsecurities,and,in
theprocess,incurliabilities,whichtheyusetoacquirefinancialassetsbymakingloansand/orpurchasingsecurities.Puttingthemselvesatrisk,theychannelfundsfromlenderstoborrowersandtransformorrepackagethefundswithrespecttomaturity,scaleandrisk.
• establishmentsthatareprimarilyengagedinthepoolingofriskbyunderwritingannuitiesandinsurance.Theycollectfees(insurancepremiumsorannuityconsiderations),buildupreserves,investthosereservesandmakecontractualpayments.Feesarebasedontheexpectedincidenceoftheinsuredriskandtheexpectedreturnoninvestment.
31-33-ManufacturingThissectorcomprisesestablishmentsprimarilyengagedinthechemical,mechanicalorphysicaltransformationofmaterialsorsubstancesintonewproducts.Theseproductsmaybefinished,inthesensethattheyarereadytobeusedorconsumed,orsemi-finished,inthesenseofbecomingarawmaterialforanestablishmenttouseinfurthermanufacturing.Relatedactivities,suchastheassemblyofthecomponentpartsofmanufacturedgoods;theblendingofmaterials;andthefinishingofmanufacturedproductsbydyeing,heat-treating,platingandsimilaroperationsarealsotreatedasmanufacturingactivities.Manufacturingestablishmentsareknownbyavarietyoftradedesignations,suchasplants,factoriesormills.Manufacturingestablishmentsmayownthematerialswhichtheytransformortheymaytransformmaterialsownedbyotherestablishments.Manufacturingmaytakeplaceinfactoriesorinworkers'homes,usingeithermachineryorhandtools.
Certainactivitiesinvolvingthetransformationofgoodsareclassifiedinothersectors.Someexamplesarepost-harvestactivitiesofagriculturalestablishments,suchascropdrying;logging;thebeneficiatingofmineralores;theproductionofstructuresbyconstructionestablishments;andvariousactivitiesconductedbyretailers,suchasmeatcuttingandtheassemblyofproductssuchasbicyclesandcomputers.
23-ConstructionThissectorcomprisesestablishmentsprimarilyengagedinconstructing,repairingandrenovatingbuildingsandengineeringworks,andinsubdividinganddevelopingland.Theseestablishmentsmayoperateontheirownaccountorundercontracttootherestablishmentsorpropertyowners.Theymayproducecompleteprojectsorjustpartsofprojects.Establishmentsoftensubcontractsomeoralloftheworkinvolvedinaproject,orworktogetherinjointventures.Establishmentsmayproducenewconstruction,orundertakerepairsandrenovationstoexistingstructures.Aconstructionestablishmentmaybetheonlyestablishmentofanenterprise,oroneofseveralestablishmentsofanintegratedrealestateenterpriseengagedinthelandassembly,development,financing,buildingandsaleoflargeprojects.
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Real estate & rental & leasing
Manufacturing
Mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction
Finance & insurance
Construction
Health care & social assistance
Public administration
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Professional, scientific & technical services
Educational services
Transportation & warehousing
20161997
Data for January 1997 and September 2016. Share of total national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at basic prices. Chained 2007 dollars. North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
Canada's Top Economic Sectors: GDPShare of Gross Domestic Product, 1997 and 2016
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 379-0031 GDP by Industry.
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership University of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 026-0018. National Household
Survey, 2011, Table 99-012-X2011030
Toronto
Vancouver
Montréal
Edmonton
Calgary
Québec
Kitchener-Waterloo
Ottawa-Gatineau
Hamilton
Kelowna
St. Catharines-Niagara
Oshawa
Brantford
London
Saskatoon
Victoria
Abbotsford-Mission
Sudbury
St. John's
Barrie
SherbrookeSaguenay
Trois-Rivières
Halifax
PeterboroughWindsor
Guelph
Kingston
Regina
Moncton
Saint John
Thunder Bay
Winnipeg
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
2.2%
2.4%
2.6%
2.8%
3.0%
$50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $225,000
Shar
e of
Em
ploy
men
t in
Rea
l Est
ate
Indu
stry
Property Values Per Person
Residential Property Values & Real Estate Employment Census Metropolitan Areas, Canada, 2011
Employment in the Real Estate, Rental & Leasing sector, CanadaLinear Trend Line
R-sq = 72%
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership University of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 379-0031 GDP by Industry.
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
Share of total national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at basic prices. North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), monthly.
Linear Trend LineR-sq = 86%
January 1997: 11.5%September 2016: 13.1%
Real Estate, Rental, & Leasing Sector: GDPShare of Canada's Gross Domestic Product, 1997–2016
Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 379-0031
GDP by Industry.
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Manufacturing IndustryShare of Canada's Gross Domestic Product, 1997–2016
Notes: Share of total national gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices. North American Industry Classification System, monthly.
Linear Trend LineR-sq = 89%
January 1997: 14.6%September 2016: 10.4%
Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 379-0031. GDP by Industry.
Sept-2000, 16.1%
Nov-2008, 11.7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
Share of total national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at basic prices. North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), monthly.
Canada's Real Estate & Manufacturing Sectors: GDP Share of Gross Domestic Product, 1997–2016
Manufacturing January 1997: 14.6%September 2016: 10.4%
Real Estate, Rental & LeasingJanuary 1997: 11.5%
September 2016: 13.1%
Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0008
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
Tota
l Em
ploy
men
t (t
hous
ands
)
Linear Trend LineR-sq = 71%
1987: 229,000 (1.9% share) 2015: 312,000 (1.7% share) Growth: 83,000 = 36% increase
Real Estate, Rental, & Leasing Jobs Canada, 1987–2015
Labour force survey estimates (LFS) by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), annual.
1992
2011
1999
Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-079
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
Tota
l Job
s (th
ousa
nds)
Linear Trend LineR-sq = 63%
January 1997: 1,804,000 (16.5% share) November 2016: 1,593,000 (10.3% share)
Manufacturing Jobs, Canada, 1997–2016
Labour force survey estimates (LFS) by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), unadjusted for seasonality, monthly (persons).
Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2011, Table 97C0031. National Household
Survey, 2011, Table 99-012-X2011030
12,990 increase
8,080
6,265
3,240 2,775
1,480 1,325 1,225 910 810
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Growth in Real Estate Sector Jobs, 2001–2011Top Ten Census Metropolitan Areas
Employment in the Real Estate, Rental, & Leasing Sector, Canada 2001 Census: 204,000 (1.9% share) 2011 NHS: 306,000 (1.8% share)Growth: 102,000 = 50% increase
Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0008
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Tota
l Em
ploy
men
t (t
hous
ands
)Real Estate & Manufacturing Sector Jobs
Canada, 1987–2015
Labour force survey estimates (LFS) by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), annual.
Manufacturing1987: 2,194,000 (17.8% share) 2015: 1,798,000 (10.0% share) Loss: 396,000 = 18% decreaseReal Estate, Rental & Leasing
1987: 229,000 (1.9% share) 2015: 312,000 (1.7% share) Growth: 83,000 = 36% increase
Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 176-069
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
Cons
tant
201
6 do
llars
(bill
ions
)
Residential mortgage credit, outstanding balances of major private institutional lenders, at months end, seasonally unadjusted. Adjusted to constant September 2016 dollars using the monthly Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index.
Linear Trend LineR-sq = 89%
January 1969: $98 billion September 2006: $846 billion September 2016: $1,424 billion
Residential Mortgage CreditTotal Outstanding Balance, Canada, 1969–2016
Constant Sept. 2016 dollars
Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 176-069 and 027-0015
Sept. 198121%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
Cons
tant
201
6 do
llars
(mill
ions
)
Residential mortgage credit, outstanding balances of major private institutional lenders, at months end, seasonally unadjusted. Adjusted to constant September 2016 dollars using the monthly Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index.Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, conventional mortgage lending rate, 5-year term, monthly (percent)
Outstanding Balance & 5-Year Lending RateJanuary 1969: $98 billion, 9.4%September 2006: $846 billion, 6.1%September 2016: $1,424 billion, 3.7%
Residential Mortgage Interest Rates &Total Outstanding Mortgage Credit, Canada, 1969–2016
Mortgage Interest Rate
Total Outstanding Mortgage Credit Constant 2016 dollars (millions)
Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 380-0073
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
Cons
tant
201
6 do
llars
(bill
ions
)
Third quarter figures for each year, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. Debt payments adjusted to constant August 2016 dollars using monthly Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Indexes.
Mortgage Payments1990: $49 billion (54.6% share)2016: $77 billion (44.8% share)
Non-Mortgage Payments1990: $44 billion (48.6% share)2016: $99 billion (57.7% share)
Household Debt in Canada, 1990–2016
Mortgage Payments
Non-Mortgage Payments
Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Tables 380-0019,
378-0051, 378-0121, 380-0073
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Debt
as a
Per
cent
age
of D
ispo
sabl
e In
com
e
Figures for 1961-2011 include households and unincorporated businesses. Figures for 2012-2015 are for the fourth quarter each year and only include households. Excludes loans other than consumer credit or mortgage debt.
Mortgage Debt1961: $4,300* per person (35.1% of disposable income)2015: $35,100 per person (110.1%)
Household Debt Share of Disposable Income Canada, 1961–2015
Mortgage Debt
Consumer Debt
Consumer Debt1961: $1,900* per person (15.7%)2015: $16,000 per person (50.2%)*Constant 2015 dollars.
Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 026-0018 and 051-001
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Residential property values are taxable values in current dollars adjusted to constant 2013 dollars.
Residential Property Values Per Person Eight Census Metropolitan Areas, 2005–2013
Vancouver
Calgary
Toronto Ottawa-Gatineau
Halifax & Winnipeg
Hamilton Montréal
Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 026-0018 and 051-001
$95,250 $101,605
$121,294
$158,818
$115,544
$92,553
$156,079
$218,492
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
Halifax Montréal Ottawa Toronto Hamilton Winnipeg Calgary Vancouver
2005 2013
Residential property values are taxable values in current dollars adjusted to constant 2013 dollars. Ottawa is theOttawa-Gatineau Census Metropolitan Area.
Residential Property Values Per Person Eight Census Metropolitan Areas, 2005 and 2013
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
220%
240%
260%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Share of total national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at basic prices. Monthly annual GDP in 2007 chained dollars adjusted to con-stant 2013 dollars. Residential property values are the taxable property value in current dollars adjusted to constant 2013 dollars.
Linear Trend LineR-sq = 89%2005: 174% of GDP
2013: 240%
Residential Property Values in Canada Relative to the Gross Domestic Product, 2005–2013
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 026-0018 and Table 379-0031
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership University of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
$130,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Residential property values are the taxable property value in current dollars adjusted to constant 2013 dollars.
Linear Trend LineR-sq = 92%
Residential Property Values Per Person Canada, 2005–2013
Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership University of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 026-0018 and Table 051-001
2005: $82,000 2013: $120,000
Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: City of Toronto Economic Bulletin, December 2016. Open Data
Catalogue www.toronto.ca/open
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
Average House Price, TorontoCensus Metropolitan Area, 2000–2016
Linear Trend LineR-sq = 94%
January 2000: $230,000May 2016: $752,000
Neighbourhood Change Research PartnershipUniversity of Toronto. December 2016.
www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca
Source: City of Toronto Economic Bulletin, December 2016. Open Data
Catalogue www.toronto.ca/open
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
Average House Price, City of Toronto 2007–2016
Linear Trend LineR-sq = 87%
January 2007: $377,000September 2016: $765,000
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