CALIFORNIA 48TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL
MARCH 4-6, 2018COMPILED FROM 757 RESPONSES
Copyright © 2018, Change Research, a Public Benefit Corporation
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PART I
2018 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION OUTLOOK
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Do you expect to vote in the primary for US Congress, US Senate, and California Governor on June 5, 2018?
91%Yes, I plan to vote in the primary
9%No, I do not plan to vote in the primary
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Primary Outlook - Long Ballot, No DescriptionsPolling based only on respondents who said they would vote in the primary (688 respondents)
35%Dana Rohrabacher,
Republican.
3%Michael Kotick,
Democrat
4%Rachel Payne,
Democrat
10%Harley Rouda,
Democrat.
1% Omar Siddiqui, Democrat. | 1% Boyd Roberts, Democrat. | 1% Tony Zarkades, Democrat. | 3% Stelian Onufrei, Republican. | 2% Chase Geiser, Republican. | 1% Edward Boyd, No Party Preference. | 3% John Gabbard, Republican. | 2% Kevin Kensinger, Independent. |
2% Deanie Schaarsmith, Democrat. | 5% of voters who indicated they would vote in the primary would choose not to vote given this field.
10%Laura Oatman,
Democrat
7%Hans Keirstead,
Democrat
7%Scott Baugh, Republican
4%Brandon Reiser,
Libertarian
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Primary Outlook - Long Ballot, candidates with a * had descriptions Numbers in parentheses show change from long ballot without descriptionsPolling based only on respondents who said they would vote in the primary (688 respondents)
13%Hans Keirstead, Democrat.* (+6)
8%Omar Siddiqui, Democrat.* (+7)
5%Laura Oatman, Democrat (-5)
0% Tony Zarkades, Democrat. | 1% Paul Martin, Republican. | 2% Brandon Reiser, Libertarian. 1% Kevin Kensinger, Independent. | 2% Chase Geiser, Republican. | 0% Edward Boyd, No Party Preference. | 1% John Gabbard, Republican. | 2% Rachel Payne*, Democrat. | 0% Deanie
Schaarsmith, Democrat. | 3% of voters who indicated they would vote in the primary would choose not to vote given this field.
12%Scott Baugh,
Republican.* (+5)
29%Dana Rohrabacher,
Republican.* (-6)
10%Harley Rouda,
Democrat.*
6%Stelian Onufrei, Republican* (+3)
3%Michael Kotick,
Democrat*
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Primary Outlook - Narrowed ballot, All With DescriptionsScott Baugh was omitted from this scenario.Polling based only on respondents who said they would vote in the primary (688 respondents)
18%Hans Keirstead,
Democrat.
41%Dana Rohrabacher,
Republican.
14%Omar Siddiqui,
Democrat.
11% said Stelian Onufrei, Republican.2% of voters who indicated they would vote in the primary would choose not to vote given this field.
14%Harley Rouda,
Democrat.
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PRIMARY ELECTION SCENARIO TAKEAWAYS
● Rohrabacher is clearly atop the field, both amongst the extended list of candidates and in a narrowed field.
● The field of Democrats are splitting the vote.● Second place Republican Scott Baugh polls at
about the same level as the leading Democrats on the long ballot.
● This suggests that if all of the possible candidates run in the primary, Baugh and Rohrabacher could potentially be the top two vote-getters, advancing to the general and leaving Democrats out altogether.
● The inclusion of candidate descriptions saw some of the leading Democrats gain points. Kierstead gained 6 points and Siddiqui gained 7 points.
● For Republicans, with the inclusion of descriptions, Baugh gained 5 points and Rohrabacher lost 6 points.
● In a narrowed field without Baugh, Rohrabacher is the clear leader and Kierstead is the runner-up and Democratic leader.
● Siddiqui and Rouda are close behind, and split the vote with 14% each.
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Methodology
Results based on 757 respondents identified from voter files as CA-48 residents who answered most of the questions.
Sample demographics are close to the electorate for age, gender, and ethnicity.
Post-stratification done on age, gender, ethnicity, 2016 presidential vote.
WEIGHTINGVoters in California’s 48th Congressional District were solicited, between March 4 and March 6, to take a survey conducted in English.
Change Research applied proprietary BiasCorrect approach to solicitations in order toyield a mostly representative sample.
1,182 people started the survey and 757registered voters completed it.
TARGETING