Calgary Public Library
January 9, 2019
The New Energy Bull Market
Is Ready To Rocket In 2019
Source: stockcharts.com May 18, 2018
S&P/TSX ENERGY INDEX
Over valued
Under valued
Over valued
CRUDE OIL – WTI – PRICE/B US$
Source: stockcharts.com April 20, 2018
OVERBOUGHT
OVERSOLD
US$60/b
Breach point
SELL Zone above 90%
BUY Zone below 10%
Now
80.64%
S&P ENERGY BULLISH PERCENT
INDEX
Source: stockcharts.com
April 20, 2018
US COMMERCIAL CRUDE
INVENTORIES HAVE BIG GAIN
Source: Wall Street Journal – Daily Shots November 16, 2018
SPECULATIVE POSITIONS BEING
LIQUIDATED –MARGIN CALLS
Source: Wall Street Journal –
Daily Shots January 7, 2019
OPEC PRODUCTION
NOVEMBER 2018
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil
Report December 12, 2018
SAUDI PRODUCTION CUTS MEANINGFUL
Source: Wall Street Journal –
Daily Shots January 3, 2019
CRUDE MARKETS
HEADING INTO BALANCE WITH
OPEC CUT
Source: Wall Street Journal –
Daily Shots December 6, 2018
Source: Hess Presentation December 12, 2018
Source: US EIA, Thomas Reuters and Schacter Energy Report data August 2018
Source: Transocean Presentation December 4, 2018
NYMEX:
WTI CRUDE OIL:
Schachter Energy Report - Weekly Gas Injection/Withdrawal
$48.12
$2.99
Week ending December 28, 2018
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Tota
l NG
as in
Sto
rage
(Bcf
)
Rolling 5 Year Storage Band
2018 Storage Levels
2017 Storage Levels
2016 Storage Levels
This week: -20Bcf Withdrawal5 year avg: -58Bcf Withdrawal
NATURAL GAS STORAGE US
Source: WTRG October 10, 2017
S&P TSX ENERGY INDEX
Source: stockcharts.com January 8, 2019
Target
2020
Target
2019
Bull Market
Peak 2023
Target
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS INDEX – ANNUAL CHART
TTarget Q1/19 20,000 – 21,000
Source: stockcharts.com January 4, 2019
$VIX – VOLATILITY INDEX
Source: stockcharts.com December 14, 2018
53.29
89.53
FEAR ZONE: BUY
NORMAL ZONE/Quiet
Market
Optimism
Panic Selling
Source: stockcharts.com December 14, 2018
S&P ENERGY SECTOR BULLISH PERCENTAGE INDEX – BUY SIGNALS BELOW 5%
Source: stockcharts.com December 14, 2018
S&P ENERGY BULLISH PERCENT INDEX
4.8X
470.01
99.09
S&P/TSX ENERGY INDEX
Source: stockcharts.com August 20, 2008
7.8 X
25.10
3.20
VERMILION ENERGY
Source: stockcharts.com December 30, 2008
Source: Ensco Presentation December 12, 2018
Source: Ensco Presentation December 12, 2018
Source: Ensco Presentation December 12, 2018
Source: Transocean Presentation December 4, 2018
Source: Hess Presentation December 12, 2018
Source: Hess Presentation December 12, 2018
SCHACHTER ENERGY REPORT’SRESEARCH PROCESS
• Global Events that may impact the
price of Oil and Natural Gas
• Fundamentals and Technical
Analysis in the Energy Sector and at
Corporate levels
• Detailed analysis at the Company
level, People, Projects and Financial
Capacity
ENERGY TARGETS
Source: Reported data and SER forecasts
NOW
COMPANIES Jan 04/19 1H/19 2H/19 2020 2023
CRUDE OIL US$/b $48.17 42.00 - 62.00 56.00 - 78.00 65.00 64.00 - 90.00 75.00 100.00 > 148.00
NYMEX NAT GAS US$/MCF $2.89 2.70 - 5.00 3.00 - 7.00 3.50 3.00 - 8.00 4.00 4.50 > 10.00
AECO NAT GAS C$/MCF $1.60 0.00 - 3.50 1.50 - 4.00 2.75 1.00 - 5.00 3.00 3.25 > 5.00
S+P/TSX ENERGY INDEX 143 125 - 170 160 - 200 180 - 340 280 - 400 > 470
2019
Energy Targets - January 4, 2019
FORECAST
AVERAGE
FORECAST
AVERAGE
FORECAST
MARKET
PEAK
COMPANIES SYMBOL STOCK PRICESHARES O/S
M
MARKET CAP
$M
ALERT BUY
LEVEL
ATTRACTIVE
PURCHASE
TABLE-
POUND BUY
RECENT BOOK
VALUE
12 MONTH
TARGET
MARKET
PEAK*
LARGE MARKET CAPITALIZATION > $1.0B
CRESCENT POINT ENERGY CPG-T $4.38 549.9 $2,409 $5.52 $16.18 $12.00 $34.00 P
DIAMOND OFFSHORE (US$) DO-N $10.80 137.4 $1,484 <$11.00 <$10.25 US$26.64 $18.00 $40.00
ENSCO PLC (US$) ESV-N $4.18 434.4 $1,816 <$4.30 <$4.00 US$19.08 $11.00 $40.00
GRAN TIERRA ENERGY GTE-T $3.21 391.3 $1,256 $3.30 US$2.69 $5.50 $12.00
TOURMALINE OIL TOU-T $17.69 272.0 $4,812 $17.70 $27.20 $34.00 $60.00
TRANSOCEAN (US$) RIG-N $7.62 463.0 $3,528 <$9.00 <$8.00 US$25.83 $16.00 $50.00
VERMILION ENERGY VET-T $30.70 152.4 $4,679 $34.34 $16.56 $50.00 $70.00 P
WHITECAP RESOURCES WCP-T $4.67 416.5 $1,945 $5.75 $7.89 $12.00 $20.00 P
INTERMEDIATE MARKET CAPITALIZATION $400M - $1.0B
BIRCHCLIFF ENERGY BIR-T $3.21 265.9 $854 $3.91 $6.43 $9.00 $15.00 P
CANACOL ENERGY CNE-T $4.20 177.6 $746 $3.60 US$1.25 $8.00 $18.00
PRECISION DRILLING PD-T $2.67 293.8 $784 <$3.50 <$3.25 $5.89 $7.00 $14.00
SURGE ENERGY SGY-T $1.52 309.0 $470 $1.91 $3.06 $3.70 $8.50 P
TAMARACK VALLEY ENERGY TVE-T $2.38 227.6 $542 $3.00 $3.48 $6.00 $14.00
TRICAN WELL SERVICE TCW-T $1.29 313.1 $404 $1.27 $3.27 $4.50 $12.00
JUNIOR MARKET CAPITALIZATION $100M - $400M
BLACKBIRD ENERGY BBI-V $0.24 748.0 $180 $0.195 $0.22 $0.72 $2.00
BONAVISTA ENERGY BNP-T $1.27 260.0 $330 $1.78 $5.66 $7.00 $20.00 P
CREW ENERGY CR-T $0.91 151.7 $138 $3.41 $5.76 $7.00 $22.00 P
PAINTED PONY ENERGY PONY-T $1.54 161.0 $248 $1.66 $6.39 $6.00 $15.00
PENGROWTH ENERGY PGF-T $0.67 556.1 $373 <$0.85 <$0.80 $1.35 $2.00 $4.50
QUESTERRE ENERGY QEC-T $0.32 389.0 $124 $0.22 $0.44 $1.20 $4.00
SDX ENERGY SDX-V $0.76 204.7 $156 $0.94 US$0.56 $2.00 $5.00 P
STEP ENERGY SERVICES STEP-T $2.19 66.6 $146 $2.58 $7.69 $7.00 $13.00
SMALL MARKET CAPITALIZATION <$100M
BELLATRIX EXPLORATION BXE-T $0.73 80.9 $59 $1.87 $11.04 $7.00 $20.00 P
CEQUENCE ENERGY CQE-T $0.68 24.6 $17 $1.10 $6.34 $2.00 $8.00 P
DELPHI ENERGY DEE-T $0.40 185.5 $74 $0.50 $1.02 $1.70 $4.00
ESSENTIAL ENERGY SERVICES ESN-T $0.32 141.9 $45 $0.40 $1.17 $1.20 $5.00
INPLAY OIL IPO-T $1.06 67.9 $72 $1.44 $2.81 $2.50 $6.00
PETRUS RESOURCES PRQ-T $0.57 49.5 $28 $1.47 $2.56 $2.00 $6.00 P
RAZOR ENERGY RZE-V $2.30 15.5 $36 <$2.30 <$2.10 $0.78 $3.50 $12.00
TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION TXP-T $0.225 129.0 $29 $0.19 $0.31 $0.50 $2.00
WESTERN ENERGY SERVICES WRG-T $0.50 92.2 $46 $1.16 $3.88 $1.40 $8.00
*Disclosure: Ownership by JIS or immediate family member
No new positions either Buy or Sell can be undertaken by anyone at SER until 5 days after an Action Alert has been sent out
COVERAGE LIST JANUARY 4, 2019
COMPANIES SYMBOL STOCK PRICESHARES O/S
M
MARKET CAP
$M
ALERT BUY
LEVEL
ATTRACTIVE
PURCHASE
TABLE-
POUND BUY
RECENT BOOK
VALUE
12 MONTH
TARGET
MARKET
PEAK*
LARGE MARKET CAPITALIZATION > $1.0B
CRESCENT POINT ENERGY CPG-T $4.38 549.9 $2,409 $5.52 $16.18 $12.00 $34.00 P
DIAMOND OFFSHORE (US$) DO-N $10.80 137.4 $1,484 <$11.00 <$10.25 US$26.64 $18.00 $40.00
ENSCO PLC (US$) ESV-N $4.18 434.4 $1,816 <$4.30 <$4.00 US$19.08 $11.00 $40.00
GRAN TIERRA ENERGY GTE-T $3.21 391.3 $1,256 $3.30 US$2.69 $5.50 $12.00
TOURMALINE OIL TOU-T $17.69 272.0 $4,812 $17.70 $27.20 $34.00 $60.00
TRANSOCEAN (US$) RIG-N $7.62 463.0 $3,528 <$9.00 <$8.00 US$25.83 $16.00 $50.00
VERMILION ENERGY VET-T $30.70 152.4 $4,679 $34.34 $16.56 $50.00 $70.00 P
WHITECAP RESOURCES WCP-T $4.67 416.5 $1,945 $5.75 $7.89 $12.00 $20.00 P
INTERMEDIATE MARKET CAPITALIZATION $400M - $1.0B
BIRCHCLIFF ENERGY BIR-T $3.21 265.9 $854 $3.91 $6.43 $9.00 $15.00 P
CANACOL ENERGY CNE-T $4.20 177.6 $746 $3.60 US$1.25 $8.00 $18.00
PRECISION DRILLING PD-T $2.67 293.8 $784 <$3.50 <$3.25 $5.89 $7.00 $14.00
SURGE ENERGY SGY-T $1.52 309.0 $470 $1.91 $3.06 $3.70 $8.50 P
TAMARACK VALLEY ENERGY TVE-T $2.38 227.6 $542 $3.00 $3.48 $6.00 $14.00
TRICAN WELL SERVICE TCW-T $1.29 313.1 $404 $1.27 $3.27 $4.50 $12.00
JUNIOR MARKET CAPITALIZATION $100M - $400M
BLACKBIRD ENERGY BBI-V $0.24 748.0 $180 $0.195 $0.22 $0.72 $2.00
BONAVISTA ENERGY BNP-T $1.27 260.0 $330 $1.78 $5.66 $7.00 $20.00 P
CREW ENERGY CR-T $0.91 151.7 $138 $3.41 $5.76 $7.00 $22.00 P
PAINTED PONY ENERGY PONY-T $1.54 161.0 $248 $1.66 $6.39 $6.00 $15.00
PENGROWTH ENERGY PGF-T $0.67 556.1 $373 <$0.85 <$0.80 $1.35 $2.00 $4.50
QUESTERRE ENERGY QEC-T $0.32 389.0 $124 $0.22 $0.44 $1.20 $4.00
SDX ENERGY SDX-V $0.76 204.7 $156 $0.94 US$0.56 $2.00 $5.00 P
STEP ENERGY SERVICES STEP-T $2.19 66.6 $146 $2.58 $7.69 $7.00 $13.00
SMALL MARKET CAPITALIZATION <$100M
BELLATRIX EXPLORATION BXE-T $0.73 80.9 $59 $1.87 $11.04 $7.00 $20.00 P
CEQUENCE ENERGY CQE-T $0.68 24.6 $17 $1.10 $6.34 $2.00 $8.00 P
DELPHI ENERGY DEE-T $0.40 185.5 $74 $0.50 $1.02 $1.70 $4.00
ESSENTIAL ENERGY SERVICES ESN-T $0.32 141.9 $45 $0.40 $1.17 $1.20 $5.00
INPLAY OIL IPO-T $1.06 67.9 $72 $1.44 $2.81 $2.50 $6.00
PETRUS RESOURCES PRQ-T $0.57 49.5 $28 $1.47 $2.56 $2.00 $6.00 P
RAZOR ENERGY RZE-V $2.30 15.5 $36 <$2.30 <$2.10 $0.78 $3.50 $12.00
TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION TXP-T $0.225 129.0 $29 $0.19 $0.31 $0.50 $2.00
WESTERN ENERGY SERVICES WRG-T $0.50 92.2 $46 $1.16 $3.88 $1.40 $8.00
*Disclosure: Ownership by JIS or immediate family member
No new positions either Buy or Sell can be undertaken by anyone at SER until 5 days after an Action Alert has been sent out
COMPANIES SYMBOL STOCK PRICESHARES O/S
M
MARKET CAP
$M
ALERT BUY
LEVEL
ATTRACTIVE
PURCHASE
TABLE-
POUND BUY
RECENT BOOK
VALUE
12 MONTH
TARGET
MARKET
PEAK*
LARGE MARKET CAPITALIZATION > $1.0B
CRESCENT POINT ENERGY CPG-T $4.38 549.9 $2,409 $5.52 $16.18 $12.00 $34.00 P
DIAMOND OFFSHORE (US$) DO-N $10.80 137.4 $1,484 <$11.00 <$10.25 US$26.64 $18.00 $40.00
ENSCO PLC (US$) ESV-N $4.18 434.4 $1,816 <$4.30 <$4.00 US$19.08 $11.00 $40.00
GRAN TIERRA ENERGY GTE-T $3.21 391.3 $1,256 $3.30 US$2.69 $5.50 $12.00
TOURMALINE OIL TOU-T $17.69 272.0 $4,812 $17.70 $27.20 $34.00 $60.00
TRANSOCEAN (US$) RIG-N $7.62 463.0 $3,528 <$9.00 <$8.00 US$25.83 $16.00 $50.00
VERMILION ENERGY VET-T $30.70 152.4 $4,679 $34.34 $16.56 $50.00 $70.00 P
WHITECAP RESOURCES WCP-T $4.67 416.5 $1,945 $5.75 $7.89 $12.00 $20.00 P
INTERMEDIATE MARKET CAPITALIZATION $400M - $1.0B
BIRCHCLIFF ENERGY BIR-T $3.21 265.9 $854 $3.91 $6.43 $9.00 $15.00 P
CANACOL ENERGY CNE-T $4.20 177.6 $746 $3.60 US$1.25 $8.00 $18.00
PRECISION DRILLING PD-T $2.67 293.8 $784 <$3.50 <$3.25 $5.89 $7.00 $14.00
SURGE ENERGY SGY-T $1.52 309.0 $470 $1.91 $3.06 $3.70 $8.50 P
TAMARACK VALLEY ENERGY TVE-T $2.38 227.6 $542 $3.00 $3.48 $6.00 $14.00
TRICAN WELL SERVICE TCW-T $1.29 313.1 $404 $1.27 $3.27 $4.50 $12.00
JUNIOR MARKET CAPITALIZATION $100M - $400M
BLACKBIRD ENERGY BBI-V $0.24 748.0 $180 $0.195 $0.22 $0.72 $2.00
BONAVISTA ENERGY BNP-T $1.27 260.0 $330 $1.78 $5.66 $7.00 $20.00 P
CREW ENERGY CR-T $0.91 151.7 $138 $3.41 $5.76 $7.00 $22.00 P
PAINTED PONY ENERGY PONY-T $1.54 161.0 $248 $1.66 $6.39 $6.00 $15.00
PENGROWTH ENERGY PGF-T $0.67 556.1 $373 <$0.85 <$0.80 $1.35 $2.00 $4.50
QUESTERRE ENERGY QEC-T $0.32 389.0 $124 $0.22 $0.44 $1.20 $4.00
SDX ENERGY SDX-V $0.76 204.7 $156 $0.94 US$0.56 $2.00 $5.00 P
STEP ENERGY SERVICES STEP-T $2.19 66.6 $146 $2.58 $7.69 $7.00 $13.00
SMALL MARKET CAPITALIZATION <$100M
BELLATRIX EXPLORATION BXE-T $0.73 80.9 $59 $1.87 $11.04 $7.00 $20.00 P
CEQUENCE ENERGY CQE-T $0.68 24.6 $17 $1.10 $6.34 $2.00 $8.00 P
DELPHI ENERGY DEE-T $0.40 185.5 $74 $0.50 $1.02 $1.70 $4.00
ESSENTIAL ENERGY SERVICES ESN-T $0.32 141.9 $45 $0.40 $1.17 $1.20 $5.00
INPLAY OIL IPO-T $1.06 67.9 $72 $1.44 $2.81 $2.50 $6.00
PETRUS RESOURCES PRQ-T $0.57 49.5 $28 $1.47 $2.56 $2.00 $6.00 P
RAZOR ENERGY RZE-V $2.30 15.5 $36 <$2.30 <$2.10 $0.78 $3.50 $12.00
TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION TXP-T $0.225 129.0 $29 $0.19 $0.31 $0.50 $2.00
WESTERN ENERGY SERVICES WRG-T $0.50 92.2 $46 $1.16 $3.88 $1.40 $8.00
*Disclosure: Ownership by JIS or immediate family member
No new positions either Buy or Sell can be undertaken by anyone at SER until 5 days after an Action Alert has been sent out
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HIGHLIGHTS:
• SESSION ROOMS FOR 25 COMPANIES IN THE ENERGY AND ENERGY SERVICE AREAS.• POTENTIAL FOR COMPANIES TO PRESENT TWICE, MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SESSIONS AVAILABLE.• LUNCH WITH THE CEO OR SENIOR EXECUTIVE OF ATTENDING COMPANIES. B OOK
EARLY TO GET CONFIRMATION OF YOUR CHOICE. • MARKETING TO START IN AUGUST 2019 FOR SUBSCRIBERS AND IN SEPTEMB ER FOR
NON-SUBSCRIBERS.
SER CONFERENCE 2019
MOUNT ROYAL UNIVERSITY
SATURDAYOCTOBER 19,2019
HIRING OPPORTUNITY
SER IS LOOKING FOR A PART TIME G&G TECHNICAL PROFESSIONAL IN AN ADVISORY ROLE FOR 5-8 DAYS PER MONTH:
• REVIEW COMPANY TECHNICAL PRESENTATIONS AND ATTEND MEETINGS TO AD VISE ON AREAS OF POTENTIAL PROBLEMS. NARROW DOWN THE ISSUES.
• WRITE UP REPORTS ON TECHNICAL SUBJECTS (PLAYS) IN LAYPERSON TERM S.• PREPARE REPORTS ON KEY PLAYS INVESTORS ARE INTERESTED IN (ECONOM ICS, COSTS,
UPSIDE AND WHO HAS LAND IN THE AREA; IS SOME LAND BETTER – SWEET SPOT)• PREPARE PRESENTATION MATERIALS FOR SER ROAD SHOWS.
PLEASE SEND RESUMES TO: JOSEF I. SCHACHTER - [email protected] WHOSE RESUMES ARE OF INTEREST WILL BE CONTACTED FOR MEETIN GS.
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