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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000001
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, CA
SUBJECT: "NEVER APOLOGIZE": PM HARPER'S GOVERNING STYLE
REF: A. 08 OTTAWA 1495
B. 08 OTTAWA 1574
C. 08 OTTAWA 1586
D. 08 OTTAWA 1577
Classified By: DCM Terry Breese, reason 1.4 (d)
1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister Stephen Harper's reputation
as a master political strategist is somewhat tattered in the
wake of November's stunning near-fatal mis-step to abolish
public financing for all political parties. However, at
least on the surface, he remains unbowed and unapologetic.
Relying on an extremely small circle of advisors and his own
instincts, he has played the game of high-stakes, partisan
politics well, but his reputation for decisiveness and
shrewdness has been tarnished by a sometimes vindictive
pettiness. With only a few exceptions, he has not built the
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bridges to the opposition typical of a minority PM. Moving
from surpluses to deficits, he will face new imperatives in
the changed economic and political landscape of 2009 to adopt
a more conciliatory and inclusive approach. However, this
will go against the grain for such an instinctively combative
Prime Minister. End summary.
Blow to reputation
------------------
2. (C) Canadians have had fifteen years to get to know
Stephen Harper as Reform Party MP (1993-1997), head of the
free enterprise National Citizens Coalition (1997-2001),
leader of the Canadian Alliance (2002- 2003), Conservative
opposition leader (2004-6), and Prime Minister
(2006-present), but he remains an enigma to most Canadians
(including many Conservatives). Supporters and detractors
alike have labeled him a master strategist and cunning
tactician, as well as an extremely partisan but paradoxically
pragmatic ideologue. He calls himself a realist. However,
his reputation as a peerless political chess-master is now
somewhat in tatters, following what most perceive as an
atypical near-fatal miscalculation over a Fall Economic and
Fiscal Statement (ref a) that lacked economic credibility and
proposed the elimination of per vote public subsidies for
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political parties. Faced with an opposition revolt, Harper
first unusually retreated on the latter proposal, and then
bought time by proroguing Parliament on December 4 to avoid a
loss of a confidence vote on December 8.
Party first
-----------
3. (C) As Conservative leader, Harper has pursued two key
objectives: welding the fractured Canadian conservative
movement into one cohesive Conservative Party of Canada
(CPC); and, positioning the CPC to replace the Liberals as
Canada's "natural governing party." He succeeded in the
first goal by imposing discipline and coherence, dangling the
prospect of a majority government, and centralizing power to
an unprecedented degree in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO).
He has made no secret of his desire to win a majority
government, or of his determination to occupy and redefine
the political center. As he recently told reporters, "if
you're really serious about making transformation, you have
to pull the center of the political spectrum toward
conservatism . . . we're building the country towards a
definition of itself that is more in line with conservatism."
In a separate year-end interview, he underscored that his
goal since becoming leader has been to create a strong party
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"that can not just win the odd election but can govern on an
ongoing basis." Until now, that strategy has rested on
winning additional seats in Quebec, but the setbacks in the
province during the October election and Harper's
denunciations of Quebec separatists during the early December
mini-crisis may necessitate a change in direction.
4. (SBU) In 2007, former Harper strategist Tom Flanagan set
Q4. (SBU) In 2007, former Harper strategist Tom Flanagan set
out his "Ten Commandments of Conservative Campaigning" that
read like a prescription for Harper's governing style: party
unity; discipline; inclusion (reach out to ethnic
minorities); toughness; grassroots politics; persistence;
and, technology (fundraising and grassroots motivation). On
the policy side, moderation, "incrementalism," and
communication. Conservatives, Flanagan noted, "must be
willing to make progress in small, practical steps . . .
sweeping visions . . . are toxic in practical politics."
Moreover, with five parties on the field, he warned there was
little room for niceties; elections would "not be just street
fights, but all-out brawls."
Governing the country, closely
------------------------------
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5. (C) In office, Harper has rarely made the compromises
typical of a minority PM, nor built the bridges and informal
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channels that usually get things done in a minority
Parliament. In his first term, he practiced confrontation
over cooperation, governing in a kind of faux
majority-minority style that humiliated the already weakened
official opposition Liberals (a task made easier by the often
hapless performance of then-Opposition leader Stephane Dion).
He reached across the floor only twice: in March 2008 to
achieve bipartisan consensus on the extension of Canada's
military mission in Afghanistan through 2011; and, in June
2008 to resolve the Indian Residential Schools issue. More
typical was his free use of confidence votes on a series of
legislation to force passage of his agenda under threat of an
election, and his fait accompli in 2006 recognizing the
Quebecois (i.e. not Quebec province) as a nation within a
united Canada, a step that took both his own party as well as
the opposition by surprise.
6. (C) Tight focus on the leader and close-hold of
information have been the hallmarks of Harper's governing
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style. Initially, strict discipline and scripting made sense
for a new government on probation, whose members had almost
no experience in power. However, Harper has centralized
communications and decision-making within the PMO (an ongoing
trend since the 1970s) to an unprecedented degree, according
to commentators familiar with the public service and
Conservative insiders. "The Center" (PMO and Privy Council
Office) is clearly the arbiter of even the most routine
decisions.
7. (C) For their part, cabinet ministers have mostly kept
on message and in the prime minister's shadow. Since July,
under new Chief of Staff Guy Giorno and communications
director Kory Teneycke, media access to ministers has been
loosened, but ministers are still on a short leash. At a
December conference, one Minister of State confessed
privately that he did not "dare" to deviate from his
pre-approved text, even though fast-moving events had already
overtaken his speech. Discussions with Conservative caucus
members over the past year have also made it clear that they
are often out of the loop on the Prime Minister's plans,
including key committee chairmen in the House of Commons.
Many senior Conservatives admitted that they were stunned to
hear about the ban on public financing of political parties
in the Fall Economic Statement; neither the Cabinet nor the
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caucus apparently had any clue this was even part of the
long-range agenda, much less subject to an immediate
confidence vote.
Inner, inner circle
-------------------
8. (C) Harper's inner circle appears extremely small.
Notoriously hard on staff (Harper burned through a series of
communications directors as opposition leader, and once
reportedly told an aide that he liked to see the "fear" in
the eyes of prospective employees), Harper seems to operate
largely as his own strategist, tactician, and advisor. Often
described by observers as self-consciously the "smartest guy
in the room," he has tended to surround himself with
like-minded people. As a result, some insiders say he lacks
staff willing or able to act as an effective sounding-board
or check his partisan instincts. Following the departure in
July of long-term advisor and chief of staff Ian Brodie and
communications director Sandra Buckler, their replacements
Giorno and Teneycke are known as highly partisan veterans of
two controversial majority Ontario provincial governments
that polarized public opinion.
9. (C) In cabinet, pundits consider Environment Minister
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Jim Prentice, Transport Minister John Baird, and Foreign
QJim Prentice, Transport Minister John Baird, and Foreign
Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon to have Harper's confidence.
However, few, if any, ministers appear to be genuine
confidantes. Unlike former Conservative PM Brian Mulroney,
who famously called his MPs when their kids were sick and
kept their loyalty even when his personal popularity plunged
to historic lows, Harper lacks the personal touch. He
appears to keep his caucus in line more through respect for
what he has accomplished and with the power and authority
that comes with the position of Prime Minister -- and as the
party's best hope for a future majority -- than through
affection or loyalty. He has worked to quiet the party's
socially conservative rank and file, and to marginalize
contentious issues, such as same-sex marriage and abortion,
notably at the party's November policy conference in
Winnipeg. He will next have to win their acquiescence to
upcoming deficit spending -- anathema for western Canadian
conservatives -- for a new stimulus package. Realistically,
however, they have no credible alternative to Harper or the
CPC at this point, which will help to keep the party base
loyal.
Expect surprises
----------------
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10. (C) After almost three years in power and facing a
changing economic and political landscape for 2009 (ref b),
Harper's new agenda is probably also still evolving. The
2008 Conservative election platform, the November policy
convention, and the 2008 Speech from the Throne provided few
insights, obliging Harper-watchers to parse his comments and
actions for clues about his future direction. Harper has
typically concentrated almost exclusively on short-term
election planning horizons, giving his government a sometimes
improvisational air. Some commitments (such as revisions to
the Anti-terrorism Act and new copyright legislation) have
languished, while others (notably his about-face on his
election pledge not to run a deficit, and his current
proposal to inject up to C$30 billion in fiscal stimulus in
FY 2009-2010) have been surprise reverses. Harper has also
not been bound by party orthodoxy. On December 22, he filled
the Senate with 18 unelected Conservatives and directly named
a Supreme Court justice, contradicting long-standing
commitments to an elected Senate and parliamentary review of
Supreme Court appointments (refs c and d).
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11. (C) According to one insider, Harper "likes surprises,"
not least to keep the opposition off balance. For the
opposition, Harper's unpredictability has been more dangerous
due to his fierce partisanship and his willingness to take
risks. Harper and senior Conservatives prefaced the 40th
Parliament with calls for greater conciliation, a new "tone,"
and a common resolve to work together to tackle the economic
crisis. However, the government's provocative Economic and
Fiscal Statement immediately revived the bitterness and
threat of an election that had hung over the parliament until
the prorogation. Opposition leaders claimed that the PM had
"poisoned the well" and broken their trust. As one national
columnist noted, the Statement "amounted to a declaration of
war."
12. (C) The opposition's ability to turn the tables with a
proposed coalition in turn apparently caught the PM by
surprise, as was perhaps the rumored unwillingness of the
Governor General to rule out this option against his advice.
His ensuing passionate attacks on the "separatist" coalition
undid much of the progress the Conservative party had made in
Quebec. Harper was able to retake the initiative by seeking,
and gaining, a prorogation until January 26, but in year-end
media interviews he remained unapologetic. He denied that he
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had acted like a "bully" in provoking the crisis, adding
"it's our job . . . to put forward things we think are in the
public interest."
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000795
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, CA
SUBJECT: BLUE DAYS FOR LIBERAL LEADER MICHAEL IGNATIEFF
REF: A. 08 OTTAWA 1543
B. OTTAWA 341
C. OTTAWA 766
D. OTTAWA 735
E. OTTAWA 569
Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) Summary. Liberal Party poll numbers continue to
decline, while the Conservatives appear in their strongest
position in at least a year. Fundraising has also slowed
down noticeably. Leader Michael Ignatieff is clearly on the
defensive, but has vowed to do a better job in shaping the
political landscape and his own image. Some insiders are
skeptical that he can do so, at least before a next election,
but see no real alternative right now for the Liberal Party.
End Summary.
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BRIEF STARDOM
-------------
2. (C) Michael Ignatieff was widely seen as the savior of
the Liberal Party of Canada, the "Official Opposition," when
he took over as interim leader from the discredited
then-leader Stephane Dion in dramatic fashion in December
2008 (ref a), and was subsequently voted official leader in
early May 2009 (ref b). Urban, articulate, bilingual, and
with an impressive rolodex of contacts around the world --
including in the new Obama Administration -- Ignatieff
represented the Liberals' newest and best hope that they
could reverse their several years-long slide and emerge in
the next election -- probably, they thought, in summer or
fall 2009 -- at least with enough seats to form a minority
government and finally drive the Conservative Party of Canada
out of office. The worldwide recession, Canada's mounting
recession, and Prime Minister Stephen Harper's seeming
inability to connect viscerally with the voters -- especially
among women and in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec -- fueled the
Liberals' dream of once again serving as "Canada's natural
governing party." (This was, of course, before Harper's now
famous -- at least in Canada -- surprise performance of the
Beatles' "I Get By With a Little Help From My Friends" at the
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National Arts Centre, along with Yo-Yo Ma, on October 3.)
3. (SBU) Instead, the Liberals as a party and Ignatieff as
a leader are again sliding in the polls, while the
Conservatives apparently are going from strength to strength.
In an EKOS poll released on October 14, support for the
Liberals nationwide ("if an election were held today") among
decided voters had dropped to 25.5 pct, down from over 29 pct
only a few weeks ago (ref c). The Conservatives in the same
poll were up to 40.7 pct, which arguably could bring them a
majority government in a new election any time soon, although
the concentration of their support in the western provinces
might mean that they would only win another, albeit perhaps
stronger, minority government. In the poll, the
Conservatives and the Liberals were neck-and-neck in Quebec
at about 22 pct of support each, but -- ominously -- the
Conservatives were far ahead of the Liberals in Ontario, at
44.1 pct to 31 pct. Surprisingly, support for the
Conservatives among women was 36.7 pct versus only 26 pct for
the Liberals. Almost half of those in the EKOS poll felt
that Canada was in only a "mild recession," with two-thirds
expressing the hope that their own personal financial
situation in a year's time will be "about the same" or
"better." Poll after poll has shown that Canadians now put
far more trust -- usually between 14 and 20 pct more -- in PM
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Harper as a leader than they do in Ignatieff, contrary to
Canadian conventional wisdom that the ruling party always
takes a hit in bad economic times.
AND THE BAD TIMES ROLL ON...
----------------------------
4. (C) Many Liberal Party insiders have privately begun to
Q4. (C) Many Liberal Party insiders have privately begun to
express a feeling of "deja vu all over again" -- stuck with
another leader who "just doesn't listen," the same flaw most
attributed to Dion. Complaints have surfaced -- most
publicly, by Liberal MP Denis Coderre (ref c) as he resigned
as the Liberal Lieutenant for Quebec and as Defence Critic
(shadow Defence Minister) -- about Ignatieff's reliance on a
handful of Toronto-based advisors, to the exclusion of all
other viewpoints, a charge that Ignatieff has rebuffed
vigorously. Liberal National Director Rocco Rossi (who,
incidentally or not, is from Toronto) admitted privately to
PolMinCouns that Ignatieff's closest advisers, like Principal
Secretary Ian Davey, do come from Toronto, but indicated that
Ignatieff didn't really listen much to them, either. "He
knows his own mind, and the only person whose opinion he
really cares about is his wife Zsuzsanna," he commented.
Others have also pointed to the close-knit nature of their
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relationship, while insisting that the outgoing Zsuzsanna
could be his "secret weapon" if ever let loose on the
OTTAWA 00000795 002 OF 003
campaign trail or among the Liberal Party loyalists -- which
would, however, go against the Canadian political norm,
according to most pundits. (People say exactly the same
thing about Laureen Harper, the Prime Minister's vivacious
spouse.)
5. (C) Liberal Party officials now confess that Ignatieff's
long summer holiday mostly out of public sight (ref c) was,
in retrospect, a tactical error, only compounding the minor
bounce that the sitting government usually gets when
Parliament is on recess. Another mistake, in hindsight, was
canceling a highly touted trip by Ignatieff to China -- which
PM Harper has yet to visit -- in early September after
Ignatieff stunned a party gathering in Sudbury, Ontario with
the sudden news that the Liberals had finally and truly lost
"confidence" and "trust" in the Conservatives and would
henceforth oppose the government. In what is now seen as yet
again a tactical mis-step, Ignatieff in a CBC Radio interview
that aired on October 10 backtracked by explaining that the
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Liberals would only vote against the Conservatives on formal
confidence votes, while making case-by-case decisions on all
other legislative votes. The Liberals are apparently still
wrestling with how to vote on pending legislation to extend
Employment Insurance benefits, now in a Commons' committee,
but have indicated that they may try to delay passage once it
reaches the Liberal-dominated Senate -- mostly, to avoid
letting the Conservatives and their new-found ally on this
issue, the New Democratic Party, get the credit. They admit
that there is some risk to this strategy if voters perceive
the Liberals as standing in the way of better unemployment
coverage, however.
6. (C) To underscore worrying trends, Liberal fundraising
has plateaued, fundraiser-in-chief Rossi admitted. In the
first six months of 2009, the Liberals raised about as much
as they had in all of 2008 -- about C$5 million -- and almost
as much as the Conservatives had (C$7 million). Since then,
however, they have picked up almost no new contributions or
pledges, although they hold out hopes for some major
fundraising events in the fourth quarter of 2009. New
memberships were up by about 100,000 in 2009, according to an
official of the Office of the Official Opposition, but were
similarly concentrated in the first half of the year.
Liberal officials have estimated that approximately one
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million Liberal voters simply stayed home in the October 2008
election, but are quick to note that many of them were not
actually party members.
NO HAPPY TALK
-------------
7. (C) Many Liberals have been disappointed that
Ignatieff's communication skills -- honed as a TV journalist
in London and as a Harvard University professor -- have
failed to ignite as a politician. According to National
Director Rossi, Ignatieff himself laments his own lack of
humor, claiming "I'm a Presbyterian with a Russian ancestry;
I live in a humor-free zone." (Other Liberals have described
that, in small, private gatherings, Ignatieff can be both
warm and funny, and have even claimed that -- contrary to his
egghead image -- his favorite TV shows are "Desperate
Housewives" and "Sex and the City.") Rossi also commented on
the intellectual Ignatieff's insistence on new substance in
each speech, rather than perfecting a good stump speech for
general use. As a result, he explained, Ignatieff actually
thinks about what he is saying as he says it in each speech,
resulting in him often looking up or at his feet as he
pondered, rather than connecting with the crowd. Rossi
Qpondered, rather than connecting with the crowd. Rossi
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indicated some frustration that Ignatieff seemed unable to
absorb helpful critiques on his delivery.
8. (C) Ignatieff has admitted publicly that the
Conservative Party had been entirely successful in "framing"
who he is -- "Michael Ignatieff: Just Visiting" -- and
insisted that he needed to do more to create his own "frame."
Liberal Party officials are increasingly antsy for Ignatieff
to champion some specific substantive policies, a step that
the Liberals had previously avoided for fear of falling into
Stephane Dion's "Green Shift" disaster, in which the
Conservatives picked away relentlessly -- and successfully --
at the Liberals' then-signature policy. Numerous Canadian
columnists have noted that Canadian voters still do not know
what Ignatieff and the Liberal Party now stand for, or how
they would govern differently from the Conservatives. The
Liberal National Director under Dion, Greg Fergus, wrote in
an on-line "Globe and Mail" op ed article on October 6 that
it was now "Deep Breath Time for the Liberals," requiring
"hard work" and "near pitch-perfect delivery" by Ignatieff
and the Liberals, as well as urging a new "thinkers'
convention" to come up with some "freshly minted ideas."
Fergus told PolMinCouns that Ignatieff quickly called him
personally to praise the article and that the Liberals have
subsequently hired him back as an advisor for the conference,
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OTTAWA 00000795 003 OF 003
which will take place in Montreal January 14-16. Other
Liberals, however, are dismayed that the party has put off
this event until January, leaving the real possibility of
continued slump and slide during the fall. Fergus even
expressed worries that the Liberals may have entered a period
of up to as much as 6-8 years in the "political wilderness"
of opposition.
BUT NO OTHER CHOICE FOR NOW?
----------------------------
9. (C) For the foreseeable future, however, it is Ignatieff
at the Liberal helm. Insiders say that there is no obvious
person to replace him, should he do the unthinkable and
resign before the next election -- which few now expect
before spring 2010 at the earliest (although many remain
suspicious that the Conservatives may surprise everyone by
somehow triggering one this fall). The only name that still
comes up is Bob Rae -- another 62 year old white male from
Toronto -- who has now lost the leadership sweepstakes twice
and who has privately insisted that his sole remaining
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political ambition is to be Foreign Minister. Many Liberals
are concerned that the "new blood" of the Liberal Party is
apparently so anemic, with no real stars on the horizon --
apart from Justin Trudeau, who most describe as eminently
likeable but sadly prone to stray off script -- not the
sure-fire leadership a successful Liberal Party will need.
Visit Canada,s North American partnership community at
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap /
JACOBSON
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