Castor Seed Overview
Castor seed traded on a positive note on Monday extending gains of the previous week and settled 0.82% higher. Lower arrivals also supported prices. However, good rains have increased hopes of higher sowing, capping any sharp upside movement. Prices made a new high in July contract of Rs. 4294 earlier this month as IMD lowered monsoon forecast to 88% of LPA.
Castor seed traded on a positive note on Monday extending gains of the previous week and settled 0.82% higher. Lower arrivals also supported prices. However, good rains have increased hopes of higher sowing, capping any sharp upside movement.
Prices made a new high in July contract of Rs. 4294 earlier this month as IMD lowered monsoon forecast to 88% of LPA. Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 254,648 nmt out of which 252,876 mt are valid stocks while the remaining 1772 mt are in process.
Outlook
Castor futures are expected to trade on a positive note. Value buying is expected to support prices. Weak monsoon forecast by IMD may also support prices at lower levels. However, good rains
Market Highlights
Spread Matrix
DAILY PRICE ANALYSIS
Tuesday , 30 June 2015
SPREAD ANALYSIS
Technical Chart - Castor seed NCDEX July contract
Technical Levels
Commodity
Castor seed
Contract
July
S2
3975
S1
4025
R1
4100
R2
4135
Location
Bhabar
Deesa
Kadi
Patan
TOTAL
Expiry
JULY
AUG
SEPT
OCT
SPOT
JULY
AUG
SEPT
OCT
PRICE
4,022
4,058
4,151
4,232
4,302
JULY
36
-
-
-
-
AUG
129
93
-
-
-
SEPT
210
174
81
-
-
OCT
280
244
151
70
-
Open
4,021
4,115
4,195
4,266
High
4,070
4,164
4,242
4,307
Low
4,017
4,115
4,191
4,260
Close
4,058
4,151
4,232
4,302
Prev CL
4,025
4,121
4,188
4,250
% Change
0.82
0.73
1.05
w1.22
Valid Stock
1299
25544
134803
91230
252876
In Process
10
625
443
694
1772
Unit
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
till now may keep prices under pressure as it may lead to good sowing. Sluggish demand may also keep prices under check. Technically, Castor July futures may trade higher. Prices breached the trend line and closed above it. Prices closed above 5 & 21 day EMA indicating further upside. However, MACD and RSI are moving southwards. Prices on the upside may find strong resistance at 50% retracement.
Chana Overview
Chana traded on a positive note on Monday on extended short coverings and settled 0.67% higher. Prices declined over the last few days as Rajasthan government imposed stock limit on pulses. Huge supplies, weak demand from bulk consumers and improved climatic conditions also pressurized prices. Prices are trading at the lowest levels in 2 months. Further, the union cabinet has decided to allow higher import of pulses. Prices gained earlier on the back of lower output and tight supplies. 88% of LPA.
According to a circular released by NCDEX, staggered delivery for July’15 contract onwards shall commence on 1st of the expiry month. Pre-expiry margin of 3% on both sides will be applicable from 11th of the month till the expiry.
Prices in the Delhi remained unchanged at Rs. 4350-4400 while Akola remained flat at Rs. 4350 compared with previous day.
Prices gained sharply over the last few months due to crop damage due to unseasonal rains, which has led to lower output. Tight supplies and good demand ahead of the wedding season also helped push up the prices.
The Ministry of Agriculture released 3rd Advance Estimates for 2014-15, wherein it has estimated chana output at 7.59 mn tonnes compared with 8.28 mn tonnes in the previous estimate.
Market Highlights
Spread Matrix
Tuesday , 30 June 2015
SPREAD ANALYSIS
Technical Chart - Chana NCDEX July contract
Stock Position on NCDEX Warehouses as on 28th June
Technical Levels
Commodity
Chana
Contract
July
S2
4100
S1
4155
R1
4258
R2
4295
LocationBikanerDelhiTOTAL
Expiry
JULY
AUG
SEPT
OCT
SPOT
JULY
AUG
SEPT
OCT
PRICE
4,350
4,205
4,336
4,455
4,561
JULY
(145)
-
-
-
-
AUG
(14)
131
-
-
-
SEPT
105
250
119
-
-
OCT
211
356
225
106
-
Open
4,136
4,318
4,409
4,521
High
4,225
4,354
4,472
4,580
Low
4,136
4,271
4,405
4,521
Close
4,205
4,336
4,455
4,561
Prev CL
4,177
4,315
4,443
4,555
% Change
0.67
0.49
0.27
0.13
Valid Stock12842312053140476
In Process79752849
UnitMTMTMT
Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 141,325 mt out of which 140,476 mt are valid stocks while the remaining 849 mt are in process.
Outlook
Chana futures may trade on mixed note with a negative bias. Huge supplies, stock limits on pulses in Rajasthan and sluggish demand coupled with cabinet’s decision to boost imports may keep prices under downside pressure. Also, government’s offer of NAFED stocks to the states to augment supplies may add to the downside pressure. However, lower output may support prices at lower levels. Bargain hunting may also be seen at these levels.
Technically, Chana may trade sideways. Prices gained over the last few days after taking support at the trend line. Prices found support at 50% retracement. However, Prices may find strong resistance at 10 day EMA. MACD and RSI are moving southwards.
DAILY PRICE ANALYSIS
DhaniyaOverview
Dhaniya futures recovered from lower levels on Monday on short coverings and settled 0.45% higher. Prices have declined from higher levels on long liquidation due to sluggish demand at higher levels. Prices gained sharply over the last few weeks on the back of lower output and tight supplies.
According to a circular released by NCDEX, staggered delivery for July’15 contract onwards shall commence on 1st of the expiry month. NCDEX also imposed 10% Special Cash Margin on the Long side of all running and yet to be launched contract w.e.f. beginning of June 3, 2015. Pre-expiry margin of 3% on both sides will be applicable from 11th of the month till the expiry.
Prices in Kota mandi for Eagle variety remained unchanged at Rs. 10100-10300 per qtl while Badami remained unchanged at Rs. 9500-9700. Prices in Guna (MP) for Badami remained flat at Rs. 9500 while Eagle variety remained unchanged to Rs. 10500.
According to the Spices Board of India, exports of Dhaniya from India between April-December 2014 stood at 34,000 MT, marginally higher compared with 33,882 MT during the corresponding period last year.Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 34,278
Market Highlights
Spread Matrix
DAILY PRICE ANALYSIS
SPREAD ANALYSIS
Technical Chart - Dhaniya NCDEX July contract
Stock Position on NCDEX Warehouses as on 28th June
Technical Levels
Commodity
Dhanya
Contract
July
S2
11700
S1
11835
R1
12060
R2
12250
LocationBaranGondalGunaJaipurKotaRamganjmandi
TOTAL
Expiry
JULY
AUG
SEPT
OCT
SPOT
JULY
AUG
SEPT
OCT
PRICE
11,736
11,960
12,138
12,345
12,521
JULY
224
-
-
-
-
AUG
402
178
-
-
-
SEPT
609
385
207
-
-
OCT
785
561
383
176
-
Open
11,890
12,115
12,330
12,441
High
12,069
12,248
12,412
12,600
Low
11,765
11,961
12,158
12,441
Close
11,960
12,138
12,345
12,521
Prev CL
11,906
12,118
12,345
12,663
% Change
0.45
0.17
-
(1.12)
Valid Stock1302767230407481235833409
In Process0659002100869
UnitMTMTMTMTMTMTMT
mt out of which 33,409 mt are valid stocks while the remaining 869 mt are in process.
Outlook
Dhaniya may trade on a mixed note. Sluggish demand may keep price under check. Lower output and poor supplies may, however, support prices at lower levels.
Technically, Dhaniya may trade mixed. Prices have taken strong support at the trend line and bounced back while resistance has been seen at 38.2% retracement. Prices may move up further once it breached the retracement levels. However prices closed below 10 & 20 day EMA. RSI and MACD are moving southwards,
Tuesday , 30 June 2015
Jeera Overview
Jeera futures traded on a mixed note on Monday. Prices opened lower on profit taking at higher levels. However, prices recovered towards end of the day on good demand at lower levels and spot buying and settled unchanged. Prices declined over the last few days on weak demand and poor quality arrivals.
Prices in Delhi spot market remained unchanged at Rs. 16000/qtl for Ganesh variety. Arrivals were steady at 5,000 qtl. Prices in Jodhpur remained unchanged to Rs. 15500.
Prices gained sharply over the last 5-6 months on lower acreage, lower supplies due to record exports and lower carryover stocks. Unseasonal rains raised fears of crop damage leading to further upside in the prices. Output is expected around 43 lakh bags (of 55 kg each), much lower compared with last year.
According to the Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera from India between April-December 2014 stood at 128,500 MT, 28 percent higher compared with 100,340 MT during the corresponding period last year.
Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 20,361 mt out of which 20,171 mt are valid stocks while the remaining
Market Highlights
Spread Matrix
DAILY PRICE ANALYSIS
SPREAD ANALYSIS
Technical Chart - Jeera NCDEX July contract
Stock Position on NCDEX Warehouses as on 28th June
Technical Levels
Commodity
Jeera
Contract
July
S2
16080
S1
16250
R1
16680
R2
16950
Location
Jodhpur
Unjha
TOTAL
Expiry
JULY
AUG
SEPT
OCT
SPOT
JULY
AUG
SEPT
OCT
PRICE
17,188
16,475
16,720
17,190
17,485
JULY
(713)
-
-
-
-
AUG
(468)
245
-
-
-
SEPT
3
715
470
-
-
OCT
298
1010
765
295
-
Open
16,400
16,640
17,200
17,400
High
16,595
16,840
17,250
17,560
Low
16,325
16,575
16,980
17,400
Close
16,475
16,720
17,190
17,485
Prev CL
16,475
16,705
17,130
17,530
% Change
-
0.09
0.35
(0.26)
Valid Stock
2867
17305
20172
In Process
6
183
189
Unit
MT
MT
MT
189 mt are in process.
Outlook
Jeera may trade on a mixed note. Demand from stockists as well as exporters may lend support to the prices. However, poor quality arrivals may cap the upside and pressurize prices at higher levels.
Technically, Jeera July futures may trade on a positive note. Prices have closed above 5 & 10 day EMA signaling stength in the short term. MACD is trading in the positive and RSI is also moving northwards, showing recovery. Prices filled the gap at Rs. 15600 and have bounced back. Extended short coverings may be seen. However, prices closed below 20 day EMA. Prices may also find storng resistance at the trendline
Tuesday , 30 June 2015
Mustard Seed Overview
Mustard futures traded on a positive note on Monday on good buying due to export demand for the meal and settled 1.97% higher. Prices gained earlier on expectations of pick up in exports after reports China lifted ban on rapemeal imports and lower output.
Mustard seed in Jaipur declined 0.22% to Rs. 4545-4550. Prices in Alwar traded strong and declined 1.14% to Rs. 4300-4350. Non demat condition in Sriganganagar declined 1.22% to Rs. 4000-4050.
Prices have gained sharply over the last few weeks due to lower output expectations due to crop damage and lower yield due to unseasonal rains.
In its 3rd Advance Estimates, the Ministry of Agriculture has estimated Mustard output at 6.75 mn tonnes compared with 8.28 mn tonnes in the previous estimate.
Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 63,681 mt out of which 63,661 mt are valid stocks while the remaining 20 mt are in process.
Market Highlights
Spread Matrix
DAILY PRICE ANALYSIS
SPREAD ANALYSIS
Technical Chart - Mustard seed NCDEX July contract
Stock Position on NCDEX Warehouses as on 28th June
Technical Levels
Commodity
RM Seed
Contract
July
S2
4160
S1
4195
R1
4270
R2
4302
LocationAlwarBikanerJaipurJodhpurKotaSriganganagar
TOTAL
Expiry
JULY
AUG
SEPT
OCT
SPOT
JULY
AUG
SEPT
OCT
PRICE
4,225
4,234
4,283
4,327
4,369
JULY
9
-
-
-
-
AUG
58
49
-
-
-
SEPT
102
93
44
-
-
OCT
144
135
86
42
-
Open
4,145
4,196
4,253
4,305
High
4,264
4,348
4,349
4,375
Low
4,142
4,190
4,238
4,291
Close
4,234
4,283
4,327
4,369
Prev CL
4,152
4,200
4,256
4,303
% Change
1.97
1.98
1.67
1.53
Valid Stock349549723507544316136354063661
In Process0101000020
UnitMTMTMTMTMTMTMT
Outlook
Mustard seed futures may trade on a mixed note. Lower arrivals coupled with meal demand from China and may support prices. However, sluggish seed demand may keep prices under check. Huge stocks on the NCDEX warehouses may pressurize prices.
Technically, Mustard Seed futures may trade higher. Prices breached the upper end of the channel and closed sharply above it with rising volumes indicating fresh buying. Prices also closed above 5 & 20 day EMA signaling strength. Prices however, found strong resistance at 61.8% retracement levels.
Tuesday , 30 June 2015
Prepared by Anuj Choudhary (Sr. Research Associate)[email protected]+91 – 22- 23684500 (Extn: 512)
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This Report is for general information of the recipients. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match the views of the reader. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular invest-ment objectives, financial situations, or other needs of the reader. This document is not intended to be and must not be taken as the basis for any investment decision. It should be noted that the information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. We are not soliciting any action based upon this material. Neither Farmersfor-tune India (Pvt) Ltd, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document.
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