Bivariate Presentation POL 242 2008 Student Demographic
Explanations for Israeli Hawkishness
Slide 3
Rationale Importance of Israeli/Palestinian conflict Work in
other courses and earlier assignments Desire to understand effect
of conflict on young people
Slide 4
Data Set Israel 2003 Data Set N = 475
Slide 5
Dependant Variable: Hawkishness Hawkishness measures right wing
views on national security Created Index Creation of Palestinian
State Negotiation even if Terror Persists Diplomacy vs. Force
Belief the conflict will end Labour or Likud on security Alpha
=.85
Slide 6
Independent Variable: Age Coded into 3 categories: Under 30
(29.3%) 30 to 54 (46.7%) 55 and Older (24%)
Slide 7
Hypothesis X = Age Y = Hawkishness X Y As people get older they
hold more hawkish views on national security Young soldiers
Optimism Left/Right political support
Slide 8
Hawkishness by Age HawkishnessAge Under 3030 to 5455 to 60
Low26%38%30% Medium29%30%35.5% High45%32%35% N134214110 Tau B =
-.0637 Significance of Chi-square =.0777
Slide 9
Preliminary Conclusions Extremely weak negative relationship
between Age and Hawkishness Not statistically significant Confirms
Null Hypothesis Explanations for negative result Service in IDF
Separate Education Garfinkle: Politics and Society in Modern
Israel
Slide 10
New Independent Variable: Religion Coded into 4 categories:
Secular (50.1%) Traditional (33.0%) Religious (12.1%) Haredi
(4.8%)
Slide 11
New Hypothesis X = Religiosity Y = Hawkishness X Y More
religious Israelis will hold more Hawkish views on National
Security Religious Connection to Land Lack of Flexibility
Slide 12
Hawkishness by Religiosity HawkishnessReligiosity
SecularTraditionalReligiousHaredi Low42.2%30.1%8.9%
Medium31.9%33.3%30.4%4.5% High25.9%36.6%60.7%95.5% N2321535622 TauC
=.28 Significance of Chi-Square = 0.000 One-Way ANOVA: secular and
traditional distinct, Religious and Haredi are not
Slide 13
Conclusions Confirms hypothesis - moderately strong
relationship between Hawkishnes and Religiosity. Statistically
Significant Haredi and Religious do not differ significantly, but
Secular, Traditional and Religious do Extremely high hawkishness
among Haredi Exemption from conscription (Israel Since 1980,
Ben-Porat et al)
Slide 14
Future Questions Age and Hawkishness Specific Israeli
conditions or military service? Religion and Hawkishness Specific
to Israel or generalizable? Lebanon war vs. controlling greater
Israel
Slide 15
Appendix: Syntax *code and test index* missing values A19 (4)
recode A12 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into PalSt recode A14
(1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into Negot recode A19 (1=0)(2=1) into
TlkFrce recode A20 (1=0)(2=.33)(3=.66)(4=1.0) into ConfEnd recode
A48 (1=1)(2=0)(3=.5) into LabLik recode A49
(1=1)(2=.83)(3=.66)(4=.5)(5=.33)(6=.16)(7=0) into Right RELIABILITY
/VARIABLES=PalSt Negot TlkFrce ConfEnd LabLik Right /SCALE(all) ALL
/SUMMARY=all compute rawindex =
PalSt+Negot+TlkFrce+ConfEnd+LabLik+Right recode rawindex (0 thru
2.32 = 1)(2.33 thru 4.31 = 2)(4.32 thru 6 = 3) into hawk value
labels hawk 1'low'2'moderate'3'high'. *Hawkishness vs. Age*
crosstab tables=hawk by AGE /cells=column count /statistics=BTAU
chisq oneway hawk by AGE(1,3) /ranges=scheffe /statistics = all
*Hawkishness vs. Religiosity* crosstab tables=hawk by B91
/cells=column count /statistics=CTAU chisq oneway hawk by B91(1,4)
/ranges=scheffe /statistics = all