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Biofuel in the future fossil-free energy system:
The Nordic perspective
Building a sustainable European biofuel industry
Gothenburg, 05.11.2019
Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø
Professor, Norwegian University of Life Sciences
THE NORDIC BIOMASS RESOURCES
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Forest biomass Agro biomass Waste biomass
Nordic biomass potentials (GWh/Year)
Finland
Sweden
Norway
Denmark
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Nordic forest biomass potentials (GWh/year)
Source: Econ Poyry and Nordic Energy Research (2018)
WOOD-BASED BIOFUEL IS ONE COMPONENT IN
A LARGE RENEWABLE-BASED VALUE CHAIN
From Jaastad, Rørstad & Bolkesjø., 2019
3
FOREST STOCK AND STOCK AVAILABLE FOR WOOD
SUPPLY INCREASES
Graphics from European Forest Institute (2017)
4
Andre produkter og tjenester fra skogarealetEUROPEAN CONSUMPTION OF PRINTING PAPER
IS DECLINING
NORDIC FOREST INDUSTRIES
– DIFFERENT STRATEGIES AND DIFFERENT OUTCOMES
Source Midttun & Piccini,2018
Stock prices for
leading Nordic pulp
and paper compaines
(2000=100)
NEW FOREST PRODUCTS ENTERING
THE MARKET?
6
EnergyPower, heat & transportation
Materials and chemicals
Food and Feed
Based on Ministerie van LNV (2007), NHO (2016) & Jonsson et al (2016)
Vo
lum
e
Valu
e a
dd
ed
Health and lifestylePharma, fine chemicals
A FOSSIL FREE EU ENERGY SECTOR:
STILL MAJOR CHALLENGES
7
EU energy
consumption
Electriciy-
specific
Transportation
Heating
and
cooling
Sources: EU Heating and Cooling strategy & AEBIOM
Renewble
share: 5%Heating and
cooling: 50%Transportation::
32%
El-specific:
18%
Renewble
share: 16%
Renewble
share: 27%
BARRIER OF WOOD-BASED BIOFUELS:THEIR COST
Source: Mustapha, Tørmborg & Bolkesjø (2016)
Upper estimate
First generation biofuel
Lower estimate
Fossil fuel
Cost estimates from the literature
MODEL RESULT:
PROFITABLE WOOD-BASED BIOFUEL VOLUMES
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9
Bill
ion L
Cost/price of alternative fuel (€/L)
20%
10%
Source: Jaastad, Rørstad, & Bolkesjøl.(2019)
MODEL RESULT:
PROFITABLE WOOD-BASED BIOFUEL VOLUMES
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9
Bill
ion L
Cost/price of alternative fuel (€/L)
20%
10%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 10 20 30 40
Biomass (pulpwood) price
Mill m3Biomass price
(NOK/ m3
Increased
harvest
Share of wood-based biofuel in the Nordic transport sector
Harvest
residues
Imports
Reduced
wood use in
paper
industries
Source: Jaastad, Bolkesjø, Rørstad & Trømborg.(2019)
Preliminary model results:
Emission reductions by using biomass for heat versus
biofuel
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
5 10 14 25 37 48 59 81 103 15 24 32 48 63 79 94 111 127
2030 2040
TW
h o
r m
illio
n to
n C
O2eq
mill
ion
to
n C
O2eq -
red
uctio
n
€/ton CO2eq
Emission reduction
biomass for heating
Emission reduction
biomass for transportation
Use of biomass
Larger
difference for
high carbon
prices in
power and
heat
Larger
difference for
high carbon
prices in
power and
heat
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