30 JUNE – 04 JULY 2014
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
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T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
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MAJOR EVENTS Gold off the intraday high and trading sideways ahead of release of the German
inflation and U.S. consumer sentiment data. Euro traded sideways on Friday, quoting
near $1.3614, up 0.01% and US dollar index quoting at 80.24, down 0.04%.
Gold slips as Fed official gives upbeat take on U.S. economy with Fed official calls
weak Q1 economic growth rate an aberration. On another data, the U.S. personal
income increased $58.8 billion or 0.4 percent in May, after surging 0.30% last month,
according to the data released on yesterday by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The
price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent in May, the same increase as in April. The
PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2 percent in May, the same
increase as in April.
COMEX August Gold trades at $1,317.40 a troy ounce, up $0.40 and Silver trades at
$21.083 a troy ounce, down 0.079. Local Gold slipped tracking the weak global cues
amid slightly strong local currency. MCX August contract trades at Rs 27,641, down Rs
24 and Silver July quotes at Rs 44,501, down Rs 135. Indian rupee gained 0.01% at Rs
60.11 mark. Brent crude capped the biggest weekly drop since March as the conflict in Iraq spared
the country’s main oil-producing region.
Iraqi forces held the Baiji refinery, the nation’s largest, after repelling the latest attack
by Islamist militants. Fighting hasn’t spread to the south, home to more than three-
quarters of Iraq’s oil output. Exports from OPEC’s second-largest producer will
accelerate next month, according to Iraq’s oil minister. Iraqi production appears to be
safe for the time being. That makes the market stable.Brent for August settlement
gained 9 cents to close at $113.30 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe
exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 37 percent below the 100-day
average. Prices dropped 1.3 percent this week, the biggest decline since the seven
days ended March 21. WTI for August delivery fell 10 cents to $105.74 a barrel on the
New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices were down 1.4 percent this week. Volume was
50 percent below the average. The U.S. benchmark crude was at a discount of $7.56
to Brent, compared with $7.37 yesterday. Oil exports will witness a big increase, as
recent events didn’t reflect negatively on Iraq’s crude output and exports.
Brent Crude Heads
for Biggest Weekly
Drop Since April.
Copper Cracks
Amid Slow
Demand From
China.
Cracks in Copper are resurfacing although the declines so far have been limited. The
prices of MCX Copper are showing vulnerability to move beyond resistance levels of Rs
422 and 423 for the second day in a row. Domestic prices are also been marred by the
fact that the Chinese demand is slowing down. Financial deals probe on Chinese firms
is rattling the markets.Banks in China are now not coming to support from financing
due to the fact that the metal might have been used as collateral for taking multiple
loans. This has increased the flow of Copper in world markets, while China which is the
largest consumer of Copper has been showing derailment of demand. Meanwhile,
news from Eurozone also imposed negative vibes on Copper. The report from
European commission showed that the consumer confidence declined to a annual rate
of -8 from -7.1. The expectations were that the fall would be 7.1. Last night, U.S.
Department of Labor data showed that the number of individuals filing for initial
jobless benefits in the week ending June 21 declined by 2,000 to 312,000 from the
previous week's revised total of 314,000. On MCX, Copper June contract was last
checked at Rs 419.35 per kg, down 0.24%. The prices have tested a high of Rs 421.85
and a low of Rs 418.9 per kg. COMEX Copper futures for September expiry that has the
highest volumes, showed a marginal decline and was trading at $ 3.17 per pound.
Gold Sideways
Ahead Of
Consumer
Sentiment Data.
E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
June 30 7:15pm Chicago PMI 63.2 65.5
7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 1.4% 0.4%
July 01 5:30pm Treasury Sec Lew Speaks
7:15pm Final Manufacturing PMI 57.5 57.5
7:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 55.6 55.4
7:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.5% 0.2%
7:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 48.9 47.7
7:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 60.0 60.0
All Day Total Vehicle Sales 16.5M 16.8M
July 02 5:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y 45.5%
5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 206K 179K
7:30pm Factory Orders m/m -0.1% 0.7%
8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 1.7M
8:30pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
July 03 6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 211K 217K
6:00pm Trade Balance -45.1B -47.2B
6:00pm Unemployment Claims 310K 312K
6:00pm Unemployment Rate 6.3% 6.3%
6:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.2%
7:15pm Final Services PMI 61.2
7:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.2 56.3
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage
July 03 All Day Bank Holiday
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
27400 27000 26500 28000 28350 28680
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
43850 42840 42000 45000 46050 47070
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showed sideways
movement traded around important
resistance level i.e. 27800 and also
closed around 50% retracement. Now,
if it maintains above 27850 then next
resistance may be seen around 28350.
On other hand if some correction
occured on this bull rally then 38.2%
retracement i.e. 27250 will act as
important support level.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 27900 for the targets of 28300-
28500 with stop loss of 27200.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER on daily charts traded in
consolidation phase around its
resistance level i.e. upper band of
channel pattern and it is also a 61.8%
retracement. Now if this bull rally
continues and maintains above 45000
then next important resistance may be
seen around 46400. Contrary 43800
may act as key support and closing
below which may again drag it towards
the next support of 42850.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to buy on dips for target
of 46500, with stop loss of 42800.
C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
6315 6175 6010 6550 6680 6805
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
415 409.90 404.20 423 430 435
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper on daily charts showed
bullish movement, took reversal from
weekly trendline and found resistance
of trendline coming from all time
highs i.e. 423. Now, if bullish
movement continues then next
resistance is seen around 423 above
which bull rally may be possible. On
other hand if this range bound
movement continues then again 410-
405 will act as support levels.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy
on dips for the targets of 6500-6600, with
stop loss of 6250.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil still on consolidation
phase after the breakout of
symmetrical triangle pattern and took
resistance of 6500 but unable to hold
above it. Geo political issues in Iraq are
further aiding in bullishness and if
continues then 6550 is seen as near
resistance above which next important
resistance is 6700. Any correction will
find 6300 as key support and closing
below which may result in bearishness.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
on highs, with stop loss of 425 for the
targets of 410-405.
PIVOT TABLE
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