Maurice Goldberg
14 April 2009
The following are excerpts from a lengthy presentation on the current property opportunities in some of the eastern coast cities in Australia. The last four slides are past examples from our researched recommendations around Australia.
States
Cities
Suburbs
Project
Solution
“Pulse PropertyRating System”
5 Layer, 45 Point Filter
Valu
eO
pp
ortu
nity
1. Yield opportunity
2. Negotiated Reductions
3. Lifestyle Demand
4. Developer Stress
Street
Country
Pulse research model vers:022009.1
1. Demographics
2. Infrastructure
3. Yield variations
4. Economic cycles & Employment
5. Supply & demand
Project
Knowledge Experience /Volume
Networks, Relationships & Reputation
Whe
reW
he
reW
ha
t
Pulse property Research Model c
PROPERTY RATING SYSTEM
Nominal Sydney House Prices (1959 to 2008) 2005 dollars
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
5001959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1961 credit crunch &Australian Recession
1982 global recession
1987 stockmarket crash
1990’s global recession
1974 global recession
ANZ Residential Property Outlook
* ANZ economics report 2008. Note: Equities fell almost 50% since this report was written.
*
Australian and US Vacancy Rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
121
99
5
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
US vacancy rates
Sydney vacancies
Melbourne vacancies
Brisbane vacancies
Australia vs USA Vacancy Rates. 1995-2008
SUPPLY & DEMANDSUPPLY & DEMAND - dwelling deficiency
Estimated Dwelling Stock Deficiency by State ('000)
50.8
19.522.1
-1.7
4.3
-1.8
0.4 0.9
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT
2007
2008(f)
2009(f)
Source: BIS Shrapnel and Pulse Property Research
• NSW has the biggest undersupply of any state or territory (forecast shortage of 50,800 units of dwelling stock)
SYDNEY - hot spot - 2009
• vacancy rates for rental stock is amongst the lowest in the country (around 0.9%)
• property prices have remained flat since late 2003 –
Sydney is well and truly past the correction Period
•residential construction rates are at the lowest level in 50 years
•rents are forecast to increase by another 25% over the next three years (2009-2011)
Sydney – Potts Point
• Purchase price $420,000
• Purchase date May 1995
• Settlement date August 1996
• Increase in value 364%
• Current value $1,950,000
• Annualised growth p.a. 11.6%
Sydney. Rockwall Apartments
Potts Point. 1996
• Purchase price $390,000• Purchase date 2000• Settlement date 2002• Increase in value Approx 64%• Current value $638,000
Melbourne – Port Melbourne. 2000
• Purchase price $475,000• Purchase date June 2004• Sale date July 2006• Increase in value Approx 74%• Sale value $825,000
Perth – Hay Street, Subiaco. 2004
• Purchase price $345,000• Purchase date Oct 2003• Settlement date Oct 2005• Increase in value Approx 80%• Current value $620,000
Darwin - Cullen Bay. 2003
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