Xiaohong Li, Graduate Research Asst.Rita Caso, Director
Sam Houston State UniversityOffice of Institutional Research & Assessment
Purpose of the Study
Why Study Freshman Outcomes?
Why Bayesian Networks
Method
Example Inferences
Conclusions
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 2
Apply Bayesian Belief Network(BBN) techniques to examine
student outcomes for the purpose of identifying families of
factors associated with students’ college success at Sam
Houston State University (SHSU)
Identify what factors impact retention and graduation for
First Time Freshmen (FTF) Retention and Graduation rates: key performance indicators
Providing management information, analyzing and
interpreting these data for using in planning and policy
decisions
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 3
To determine if we are providing the best environment & experiences to promote success for our diverse freshman population
To make tailored improvements in the learning environment and the learning experiences we offer in order to maximize successful outcomes for all students across preparation backgrounds, needs, learning styles and life-styles
To satisfy external accountability requirements
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 4
University Stakeholders who need detailed insights into the conditions and combinations of factors that influence new student success:
Enrollment Management Enrichment and Support Programs Student Services Academic Department
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 5
Graphical Model with an Associated set of
Probability Tables
Learn causal relationships easily
Better understand the problem domain and
predict the consequences
Flexible and robust recommendation strategies
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 6
Definitions of Basic Terms: Independent
Event A does not affect the probability of B occurring: P( A, B) = P(A) * P(B)
Conditional probability The probability of event C occurring, given
that event A has already occurred: P(C|A) Conditional Independence
E is independent of A and B given D E and F are conditionally independent of each
other, given D Causal Theory
A or B can cause D to occur Node: variable
Leaf Node: no outcome depends on them (E, F) Root Node: do not depend on any outcome (A,B)
A
D
E
B
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
F
7
“A graphical model that encodes probabilistic relationships
among variables of interest”
Named “Bayes” after Reverend Thomas Bayes, a British
theologian and mathematician who wrote down a basic law of
probability
Bayes Rule
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
Smoking Cancer
8
Bayesian Networks Contain:
A Network Structure:
Directed, acyclic (non-circular) graph
Encodes a set of conditional independence and
dependence information about variables
Probability
Probability distributions associated with each variable
Represented in the data and computed from the data
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 9
Example of Bayesian Network Example Data below is Invented
Retention
Full/Part FAID
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
Full/PartFAID Part FullYes 0.4 0.6No 0.11 0.99
FAID
Yes No
0.2 0.8
RetentionFull/Part FAID Yes No
Full Yes 0.95 0.05Full No 0.8 0.2Part Yes 0.9 0.1Part No 0.99 0.01
10
Data Processing
Data Source: Institutional Research & Assessment Office data files from which Fall
FTF cohorts for 2000 through 2006 were extracted
Working Data File Merge extracted FTF Cohort data into aggregated data file
Records=13542, variables =216
Dependent variables - retention rate & graduation rate computed
from enrollment and graduation variables in working data file
Discretization – transform continuous variables into categorical
variables
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 11
Developing Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) Model by using
a computer application program called NeticaTM3.25
Selection of Variables
Input variables selected from commonly used in SHSU
IRA Office studies of freshman outcomes
Variable selection reinforced by variables used in ‘
Data Mining with Bayesian Belief networks to Examine
Retention and Graduation at a Public University’ by P.
Edamatsu, D. Jankovic and Pokrajac, presented at AIR
2007 Forum
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 12
Name Label Type Value
1 Year Retention 1 Year Retention Discrete 2
Admitted_HscholGrad Year Admitted-Graduation Year Discretized 4
College College of Students’ Enrollment Discrete 7
Ethnicity Ethnicity Discrete 6
Gender Gender Discrete 2
I_O In-state(I)/Out of State (O) Discrete 2
F_T Full or Part Time Discrete 2
BKLC Bearkat Learning-Community Cohort
Discrete 2
PBSP Probation or Suspension Discrete 6
ONOFF Whether or not student lives on campus
Discrete 2
FAID Financial Aid Discrete 2
HSrank Rank in High School Discretized 5
SAT_Total SAT Total Score Discretized 6
GPA End of Semester GPA Discretized 8
Graduated_6yrs 6 year Graduation Discrete 2
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 13
Assumptions in the model Structure
Graduation and Retention (Dependent Variables)
are “leaf nodes” Gender, Ethnicity, Full/Part, Probation &
Suspension (PBSP) are “root nodes” and are independent of each other.
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 14
• Building the Model Structure
In order to specify the relationships between the selected variables
from PRIOR information, I took inspiration from:
Structure used by Edamatsu, D. Jankovic and Pokrajac in their
study
Knowledge about variables related to dependent outcome
variables from other SHSU IRA Office studies
Knowledge about relationships between pairs of variables from
correlation matrices that included all selected variables
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 15
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
0.591.1318.111.40.8068.0
5.15 ± 1.3
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
.08444.216.4.08413.415.610.3
5.26 ± 2.3
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
94.72.941.510.84
0.0847 ± 0.4
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0
0.879 ± 1.5
BKLC
YN
3.0097.0
0.03 ± 0.17
Gender
FM
59.140.9
1.41 ± 0.49
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
14.010.424.935.013.81.87
2.3 ± 1.3
ONOFF
FO
18.381.7
0.183 ± 0.39
1 year retention
YN
67.732.3
0.677 ± 0.47
Graduated_6yrs
YN
45.055.0
0.45 ± 0.5
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
7.1219.816.622.08.8314.27.364.10
3.65 ± 1.9
I_O
IO
97.92.07
0.979 ± 0.14
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 16
Posteriori Analysis Students’ gender determines students’ college choice
and high school rank Ethnicity influences students’ college choice. 1 year retention rate and 6 year graduation rate directly
depend on GPA and students’ probation or suspension status
Students’ in-state or out–of-state status and ethnicity related to how many years after high school graduation students applied to the university
Students living on campus perform a little bit better than those living off campus
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 17
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
0.591.1318.111.40.8068.0
5.15 ± 1.3
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
0.1046.321.60.1016.210.55.16
4.92 ± 2.1
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
94.72.941.510.84
0.0847 ± 0.4
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0
0.879 ± 1.5
BKLC
YN
3.0097.0
0.03 ± 0.17
Gender
FM
0 100
2
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
15.56.5519.037.318.63.07
2.46 ± 1.4
ONOFF
FO
18.381.7
0.183 ± 0.39
1 year retention
YN
67.732.3
0.677 ± 0.47
Graduated_6yrs
YN
45.055.0
0.45 ± 0.5
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
7.1219.816.622.08.8314.27.364.10
3.65 ± 1.9
I_O
IO
97.92.14
0.979 ± 0.14
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 18
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
0.591.1318.111.40.8068.0
5.15 ± 1.3
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
.07342.712.7.07311.519.113.8
5.5 ± 2.4
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
94.72.941.510.84
0.0847 ± 0.4
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0
0.879 ± 1.5
BKLC
YN
3.0097.0
0.03 ± 0.17
Gender
FM
100 0
1
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
12.913.129.033.410.51.05
2.19 ± 1.2
ONOFF
FO
18.381.7
0.183 ± 0.39
1 year retention
YN
67.732.3
0.677 ± 0.47
Graduated_6yrs
YN
45.055.0
0.45 ± 0.5
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
7.1219.816.622.08.8314.27.364.10
3.65 ± 1.9
I_O
IO
98.02.03
0.98 ± 0.14
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 19
There is no significant difference in graduation rate and retention rate between males and females. More females’ high school ranks are above the 1st Q (from the top) than males Females
Tend to study majors in college of Art & Sciences and Humanities & Social Sciences
Males Tend to study majors in college of Art & Sciences
and Business Administration.
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 20
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
0 0 0 0 0
100
6
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
.02246.615.4.02212.114.811.1
5.2 ± 2.3
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
94.42.991.640.95
0.0914 ± 0.42
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0
0.879 ± 1.5
BKLC
YN
3.0097.0
0.03 ± 0.17
Gender
FM
59.140.9
1.41 ± 0.49
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
14.010.424.935.013.81.87
2.3 ± 1.3
ONOFF
FO
22.277.8
0.222 ± 0.42
1 year retention
YN
67.632.4
0.676 ± 0.47
Graduated_6yrs
YN
45.055.0
0.45 ± 0.5
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
7.1319.816.522.08.8214.17.454.18
3.65 ± 1.9
I_O
IO
98.61.42
0.986 ± 0.12
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 21
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
0 0 0
100 0 0
4
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
0.1338.015.50.1321.016.58.75
5.5 ± 2.2
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
96.12.521.100.32
0.0568 ± 0.31
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0
0.879 ± 1.5
BKLC
YN
3.0097.0
0.03 ± 0.17
Gender
FM
59.140.9
1.41 ± 0.49
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
14.010.424.935.013.81.87
2.3 ± 1.3
ONOFF
FO
13.886.2
0.138 ± 0.35
1 year retention
YN
67.832.2
0.678 ± 0.47
Graduated_6yrs
YN
45.154.9
0.451 ± 0.5
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
7.1019.916.622.18.8214.37.233.95
3.65 ± 1.9
I_O
IO
98.91.11
0.989 ± 0.1
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 22
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
0 0
100 0 0 0
3
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
.08539.520.4.08513.917.88.21
5.35 ± 2.2
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
96.62.080.780.53
0.0522 ± 0.31
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0
0.879 ± 1.5
BKLC
YN
3.0097.0
0.03 ± 0.17
Gender
FM
59.140.9
1.41 ± 0.49
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
14.010.424.935.013.81.87
2.3 ± 1.3
ONOFF
FO
5.9294.1
0.0592 ± 0.24
1 year retention
YN
68.131.9
0.681 ± 0.47
Graduated_6yrs
YN
45.154.9
0.451 ± 0.5
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
7.0820.016.722.28.8214.47.063.80
3.66 ± 1.8
I_O
IO
98.51.50
0.985 ± 0.12
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 23
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
100 0 0 0 0 0
1
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
2.1539.814.02.1514.020.47.53
5.31 ± 2.4
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
86.73.614.824.82
0.277 ± 0.77
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0
0.879 ± 1.5
BKLC
YN
3.0097.0
0.03 ± 0.17
Gender
FM
59.140.9
1.41 ± 0.49
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
14.010.424.935.013.81.87
2.3 ± 1.3
ONOFF
FO
24.775.3
0.247 ± 0.43
1 year retention
YN
67.332.7
0.673 ± 0.47
Graduated_6yrs
YN
45.055.0
0.45 ± 0.5
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
7.2119.216.322.08.9813.97.794.64
3.65 ± 1.9
I_O
IO
91.48.62
0.914 ± 0.28
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 24
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
No significant difference in graduation rate and
retention rate among ethnicities
Native Americans are less likely (86.7%) to attend
university within 1 year after high school compare to
other ethnicities (around 95%), and 91% are in-state
students, while 99% of other ethnicities are in-state.
46.6% of White Americans enrolled in college of Arts
and Sciences, compare to 39% of other ethnicities.
94% of African Americans live on campus, compare to
75% - 86% of other ethnicities.•
25
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
0.571.1318.211.50.7467.9
5.14 ± 1.3
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
.08344.216.4.08313.415.610.3
5.26 ± 2.3
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
96.22.281.100.45
0.0584 ± 0.32
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
1.036.0436.633.91.9520.5
2.68 ± 1.5
BKLC
YN
2.3897.6
0.0238 ± 0.15
Gender
FM
59.140.9
1.41 ± 0.49
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
14.010.424.935.013.81.87
2.3 ± 1.3
ONOFF
FO
18.181.9
0.181 ± 0.38
1 year retention
YN
55.045.0
0.55 ± 0.5
Graduated_6yrs
YN
27.073.0
0.27 ± 0.44
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
2
I_O
IO
98.02.03
0.98 ± 0.14
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 26
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
0.581.1318.211.50.7867.9
5.14 ± 1.3
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
.08444.216.4.08413.415.610.3
5.26 ± 2.3
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
95.22.661.700.47
0.0749 ± 0.36
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
2.760.200.430.890.4395.3
0.102 ± 0.56
BKLC
YN
2.9197.1
0.0291 ± 0.17
Gender
FM
59.140.9
1.41 ± 0.49
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
14.010.424.935.013.81.87
2.3 ± 1.3
ONOFF
FO
17.582.5
0.175 ± 0.38
1 year retention
YN
74.525.5
0.745 ± 0.44
Graduated_6yrs
YN
43.057.0
0.43 ± 0.5
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
0 0
100 0 0 0 0 0
3
I_O
IO
97.92.06
0.979 ± 0.14
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 27
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
0.631.1317.311.20.8868.8
5.17 ± 1.3
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
.08544.216.3.08513.415.510.3
5.26 ± 2.3
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
93.03.552.101.35
0.118 ± 0.48
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
0.470.460.850.880.2997.0
0.0892 ± 0.55
BKLC
YN
3.3896.6
0.0338 ± 0.18
Gender
FM
59.140.9
1.41 ± 0.49
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
14.010.424.935.013.81.87
2.3 ± 1.3
ONOFF
FO
22.477.6
0.224 ± 0.42
1 year retention
YN
84.815.2
0.848 ± 0.36
Graduated_6yrs
YN
70.429.6
0.704 ± 0.46
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
0 0 0 0 0 0
100 0
7
I_O
IO
97.92.14
0.979 ± 0.14
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 28
Bearkat Learning Community students have a higher probability of having a higher GPA
Students with low GPA (below 2) Have only 27% graduation rate and 55% 1 year retention
rate
Students with higher GPA (2 to 2.5) Have 43% graduation rate and 75% retention rate
Students with highest GPA (above 3.75) Have 70% graduation rate and 85% retention rate
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 29
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
0.591.1318.111.40.8068.0
5.15 ± 1.3
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
.08444.216.4.08413.415.610.3
5.26 ± 2.3
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
94.72.941.510.84
0.0847 ± 0.4
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
0 0 0
100 0 0
4
BKLC
YN
3.0097.0
0.03 ± 0.17
Gender
FM
59.140.9
1.41 ± 0.49
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
14.010.424.935.013.81.87
2.3 ± 1.3
ONOFF
FO
18.381.7
0.183 ± 0.39
1 year retention
YN
45.154.9
0.451 ± 0.5
Graduated_6yrs
YN
22.177.9
0.221 ± 0.41
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
25.564.01.400.620.620.620.626.61
1.71 ± 0.89
I_O
IO
97.92.07
0.979 ± 0.14
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 30
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
0.591.1318.111.40.8068.0
5.15 ± 1.3
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
.08444.216.4.08413.415.610.3
5.26 ± 2.3
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
94.72.941.510.84
0.0847 ± 0.4
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
0 0 0 0 0
100
0
BKLC
YN
3.0097.0
0.03 ± 0.17
Gender
FM
59.140.9
1.41 ± 0.49
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
14.010.424.935.013.81.87
2.3 ± 1.3
ONOFF
FO
18.381.7
0.183 ± 0.39
1 year retention
YN
76.024.0
0.76 ± 0.43
Graduated_6yrs
YN
53.346.7
0.533 ± 0.5
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
0.255.5621.629.411.719.19.792.61
4.35 ± 1.6
I_O
IO
97.92.07
0.979 ± 0.14
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 31
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
0.591.1318.111.40.8068.0
5.15 ± 1.3
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
.08444.216.4.08413.415.610.3
5.26 ± 2.3
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
94.72.941.510.84
0.0847 ± 0.4
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
0 0 0
100 0 0
4
BKLC
YN
3.0097.0
0.03 ± 0.17
Gender
FM
59.140.9
1.41 ± 0.49
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
14.010.424.935.013.81.87
2.3 ± 1.3
ONOFF
FO
18.381.7
0.183 ± 0.39
1 year retention
YN
45.154.9
0.451 ± 0.5
Graduated_6yrs
YN
22.177.9
0.221 ± 0.41
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
25.564.01.400.620.620.620.626.61
1.71 ± 0.89
I_O
IO
97.92.07
0.979 ± 0.14
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 32
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
0.551.0818.211.50.2168.5
5.15 ± 1.3
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
.07344.216.3.07313.515.610.3
5.26 ± 2.3
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
94.92.841.450.83
0.0822 ± 0.39
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0
0.879 ± 1.5
BKLC
YN
3.0097.0
0.03 ± 0.17
Gender
FM
59.240.8
1.41 ± 0.49
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
13.810.425.035.113.81.83
2.3 ± 1.3
ONOFF
FO
18.281.8
0.182 ± 0.39
1 year retention
YN
67.732.3
0.677 ± 0.47
Graduated_6yrs
YN
45.055.0
0.45 ± 0.5
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
7.1219.816.622.08.8214.27.364.09
3.65 ± 1.9
I_O
IO
100 0
1
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 33
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
2.453.3213.16.1228.446.6
4.95 ± 1.3
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
0.5942.719.00.5911.016.110.1
5.23 ± 2.3
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
86.77.714.171.44
0.204 ± 0.58
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0
0.879 ± 1.5
BKLC
YN
3.0097.0
0.03 ± 0.17
Gender
FM
57.942.1
1.42 ± 0.49
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
20.010.422.127.216.14.13
2.21 ± 1.5
ONOFF
FO
20.779.3
0.207 ± 0.41
1 year retention
YN
67.532.5
0.675 ± 0.47
Graduated_6yrs
YN
45.055.0
0.45 ± 0.5
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
7.1519.416.521.98.9314.17.584.48
3.65 ± 1.9
I_O
IO
0 100
0
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 34
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
0.541.1520.812.00.7264.8
5.05 ± 1.3
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
.08443.916.5.08413.515.710.2
5.27 ± 2.3
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
94.82.901.470.82
0.083 ± 0.39
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0
0.879 ± 1.5
BKLC
YN
3.0097.0
0.03 ± 0.17
Gender
FM
59.140.9
1.41 ± 0.49
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
14.010.424.935.013.81.87
2.3 ± 1.3
ONOFF
FO
0 100
0
1 year retention
YN
68.231.8
0.682 ± 0.47
Graduated_6yrs
YN
45.154.9
0.451 ± 0.5
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
7.0919.916.722.38.8814.46.993.77
3.66 ± 1.8
I_O
IO
98.02.01
0.98 ± 0.14
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 35
Ethnicity
AMAPBLHIINWH
0.801.045.858.631.1682.5
5.56 ± 1
College
Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation
.08345.315.8.08312.915.210.7
5.23 ± 2.3
F-T
P TF TUnknow
3.0696.9.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Admitted_HscholGrad
XX1X5X5more
94.33.121.670.92
0.0923 ± 0.42
SAT_Total
X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400
0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7
2.96 ± 1.4
FAID
YN
67.932.1
0.679 ± 0.47
PBSP
Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing
1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0
0.879 ± 1.5
BKLC
YN
3.0097.0
0.03 ± 0.17
Gender
FM
59.140.9
1.41 ± 0.49
HSrank
UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ
14.010.424.935.013.81.87
2.3 ± 1.3
ONOFF
FO
100 0
1
1 year retention
YN
65.434.6
0.654 ± 0.48
Graduated_6yrs
YN
44.555.5
0.445 ± 0.5
GPA
X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA
7.2719.615.920.98.5813.29.005.57
3.63 ± 1.9
I_O
IO
97.72.35
0.977 ± 0.15
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 36
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
Students on probation or suspended in the first year Have only 22% graduation rate and 45% retention rate
Good standing students Have 53% graduation rate and 76% retention rate.
Out-of-state students are less likely (87%) to attend university within 1 year after high school, compared to in-state students (95%).
There are no GPA distribution differences between in-state students and out-of-state students
Students living on campus have a slightly higher GPA, retention rate and graduation rate.
37
Bayesian Belief Networks are good tools for analyzing
institutional research data
BBN is a powerful methodology for graphically demonstrating
probability theory and can provide good references for
university administration
Users could have difficulty using BBN if they do not have
sufficient data or theory base to provide prior probabilities. This
is particularly problematic when exploring a previously
unknown network
The validity and reliability of prior beliefs used in Bayesian
inference processing are critical. If this prior knowledge is not
reliable, then the Bayesian network is not useful
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 38
1. P. Edamatsu, D. Jankovic and Pokrajac, Data Mining with
Bayesian Belief networks to Examine Retention and Graduation
at a Public University, presented at AIR 2007 Forum
2. David Heckerman, A Tutorial on Learning with Bayesian
Networks, 1997
3. Bruce G. Marcot, What Are “Bayesian Belief Network Models?”,
2005
4. Castillo, E., J.M.Gutierrez and A.S.Hadi Expert Systems and
Probabilistic Network Models. Springer Verlag, 1997
5. Jie Cheng, Russell Greiner, Learning Bayesian Belief Network
Classifiers: Algorithms and System 1995
Bibliography
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