Waves
Acute costs
Diffuse benefits
Abrupt change resulting from the simultaneous action of disparate elements that get us over hurdles no joint venture or individual can leap.
Solves the “You can’t get there from problem” through implicit (or competitive) cooperation.
Communications: Viral
Human Augmentation: Bionics
Fabrication: Molecules to cities
Waves
Same Things Better
vs
Utterly New
Being Digital (1995)
HDTVDigital BroadcastDBS
TiVoNapsterBlogsWikis
Waves make changes
Same Things Better
vs
Utterly New (?)
Being Wireless (2002)
PCSSatellite Radio802.11
M2MMobile MediaAmbience and position
Open Applications
Viral Radio
CapacityBandwidth/Noden
CapacityBandwidth/Node
~nn
Viral radio is scalable, incremental, and value-adding.
Intelligence is at the edges, costs are low, systems are agile.
Digital Radio = Intelligent Radio
Interference is a legal idea, not a physical oneMore radios means more communications, not lessMore radios mean less power, not moreBuildings and barriers help, rather than hurt
Digital radio reverses 85 years of design
Digital Radio = Intelligent Radio
There are no receivers (transmitting costs less)There are no channels
When in doubt, add radios
Unlicensed:Favors property owner vs license holder
Open radio lets users become inventors
Radio communication normally usesone transmitter and one receiver.Throughput is understood.New systems use multiple transmitand/or receive antennas, E.g., Blast,COFDM
AB
ABA
BA
BA
BCreates Cells on-the-fly
Cells Without Towers
Radio Magic
Radio Magic
Same Things Better
vs
Utterly New
Viral Radio (2005)
3G2.5G802.11
Hotspots/WarchalkingMesh/AdhocSkype phones
Transparent
Same Things Better
vs
Utterly New
Being Viral (2005)
CentralizedVertical (Rigid)Slow
ScalableIncrementalValue-adding
Transparent
Same Things Better
vs
Utterly New
Being Viral (2005)
CentralizedVertical (Rigid)Slow
GrassrootsAgileLow-risk
Transparent
Viral
Radio 802H 802.11 3G
80 10 75 20
100 90 90 0
50 40 50 10
230 140 215 30
Scalability
Incremental
Value-adding
“Virality Index”
From home to market
Unreliability can be a feature
Asynchrony can be a feature
2002: Mayhem Protocol
2003: Local Intelligence
802.11(HiFi)
Lippman, Reed, Bletsas, Christakos, Vyzovitis, Cooley, Li
Education: The learners are the innovators, infrastructure makes the system rigid
Communications: The intelligence is now in the phones, will the carriers be marginalized?
Healthcare: Patients as a group already are more up-to-date than their physician; the average psychologist reads no more than one journal per month
Viral Possibilities
Nations gain first-world status by focus and central planning; they become leaders by diffused imagination
Legitimate:EconomicCentralized(Scalable)
Viral:Optimized for innovationLow riskAgility
Lippman’s Helix
After Charles Fine
Legitimate:EconomicCentralized(Scalable)
Viral:Optimized for innovationLow riskAgility
When?Base Techs
Going Legitimate
The magic is when technology is in sync with society
E-BaySMSSkype
Surprises and speeds
Long lead time
Ultra-Rapid takeup
SMS Message Volume
1998 2001 2002 2003
China
Other countries such as US, developing countries
Intercarrier capability
1 bil
300 bil
50 bil
100 bil
150 bil
200 bil
Blackberry Growth
1999 2001 2002 2003
GPRS integration
CDMA, iDen
E-mail Access
50,000
1 mil
100,000
500,000
This is a device!
Usage of IM applications
1973 1990 1996
ICQ
AOL buys ICQand creates AIM
19981980
Creation of talk
# of
use
rs
2001
iChat
2003
SkypeYTalk allows multi-party messaging
Skype
Peer-to-peer VoIP application
First released October 2003
7 million users after one year, 25 million today
Allows instant messaging as well as voice calls
Closed architecture, but viral adoption
Communications: Viral
Human Augmentation: Bionics
Fabrication: Molecules to cities
Waves
Size matters
Fabrication
10-X: making you ten times faster, smarter…
Bionics
Viral Ideas
Speed of change
Far Horizons
Three Parts
Innovation today happens at the edges
It happens surprisingly fast
Ideas that you can see and breakthroughs you can’t predict
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