Analyzing Population Growth in Carbondale and Du Quoin with the expansion of the Railroad over 150
years.
Railroads in Illinois
1852 - 1854
• Illinois Central Railroad builds railroad line from Cairo to Chicago
• Entrepreneurs in Du Quoin and Carbondale purchase land near the planned rail lines.
• The cities of Du Quoin and Carbondale are surveyed and plots sold to potential citizens.
• Both cities incorporate in 1853• The first train rolls through the cities on July 4th,
1854.
Year Passengers
1882 289
1890 520
1900 577
1910 972
1920 1270
1930 708
1940 456
1950 488
1960 327
1970 289
1980 281
1990 22
Passenger Train Travel
Railroad travel was the preferred mode in the early 1900’s and the
number of passengers grew dramatically.
Photos supplied by family of Celeste Naumer Flavell
Passenger Traffic Data
North American Passenger Traffic on Railwaysin Millions of Passengers
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Millions of Passengers
Carbondale Du Quoin
1870 3370 2212
1880 2213 2807
1890 2382 4052
1900 3318 4353
1910 5411 5454
1920 6267 7285
CensusData
Through 1920
Data as shown on
TI-83 Calculator
Population
Historical Population
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5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Census Years
Nu
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Carbondale Du Quoin
Populations through 1920
Exponential Regressions
Note: Logistic Regression will not work with the given data. The calculator gave a domain error.
Du Quoin
Carbondale
Predictions for 2000
Evaluate the exponential regression equations using the data through 1920 at the year 2000
Prediction Actual
Carbondale 22,229 25,063
Du Quoin 44,860 6,448
Carbondale
Du Quoin
How good was prediction
Original regression lines with all data.
Carbondale
Du Quoin
Du Quoin
Using Exponential Regressions, Carbondale was very close, but Du Quoin was far from correct.
Carbondale: Predicted
Carbondale Du Quoin
1870 3370 2212
1880 2213 2807
1890 2382 4052
1900 3318 4353
1910 5411 5454
1920 6267 7285
1930 7528 7593
1940 8550 7515
1950 10921 7147
1960 14670 6558
1970 22816 6691
1980 26287 6594
1990 27033 6697
2000 25063 6448
CensusData
Through 2000
Historical Population
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Census Years
Nu
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er o
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Carbondale Du Quoin
Populations through 2000
Exponential Predictions
Exponential prediction for 2000
Actual population for 2000
Exponential prediction for 2050
Carbondale 32,778 25,063 93,618
Du Quoin 8,625 6,448 12,222
Logistic Predictions
Logistic prediction for 2000
Actual population for 2000
Logistic prediction for 2050
Carbondale 28,083 25,063 33,054
Du Quoin 6,975 6,448 6,977
Conclusions
The populations of Carbondale and Du Quoin can be modeled with a logistic equation that will predict population more accurately that an exponential regression.
It appeared that both towns were growing exponentially prior to 1920 due to the fast growth of railroad usage for travel and freight.
Carbondale still grew at a near exponential rate due to the expansion of SIU in the 1960’s. Du Quoin’s population leveled off and has shown little change in many years. Has SIU originally located just north of Du Quoin as was discussed, the population curves may be reversed.
Railroad Movies
A romance of the rail / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., 1903.
Black Diamond express / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. ; producer, James White. CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., 1896.
Arrival of McKinley's funeral train at Canton, Ohio / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. OTHER TITLES Funeral train arriving at Canton Station CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Thomas A. Edison, Inc., 1901.
Going through the tunnel / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. ; producer, James White. CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., 1898
Freight train / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. ; producer, James White. CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., 1898.
Links and References
SIU-Carbondale Site for Adventures of the American Mindhttp://www.aam.siu.edu/siuc/index.asp
American Memories Collectionhttp://memory.loc.gov/
Library of Congress Sitehttp://www.loc.gov/
Southern Illinois University at Carbondalehttp://www.siuc.edu/
Citing Internet Resources –http://www.classroom.com/community/connection/howto/citeresources.jhtml
Perry County Historical Society Book – 1984
United States Census 1850 through 2000
International Historical Statistics, The Americas
City of Carbondale Website
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