Analyst Meeting for 2Q 2011 performance • August 8, 2011
Dr. Anusorn Sangnimnuan President
Mr. Surachai Kositsareewong EVP-Accounting &Finance
Agenda
Performance Highlights
Operational Performance
Project Progress
Financial Performance
Market Outlook
- 2 -
Global Oil Market: Prices Movement
- 3 -
$/BBL
80
90
100
110
120
130
Unrest in MENAProfit taking
The IEA surprisingly announced to inject 60 MB of its SPR
DB
WTI
U.S. and EU zone debt crisis
107.0
119.5
114.4
102.0
Brent
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Performance Highlights of 2Q 2011
Crude run 98.2 KBD
GRM 12 $/bbl, stock gain 5.21 $/bbl
Marketing sales volume growth by 10.53%
Income from PQI compensation
CIT saving resulting from BOI-granted projects
- 4 -
Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS
42,906 MB 4,183 MB 3,021 MB 2.33 Bht
Singapore Refined Oil Market: Prices Movement
-4.69-5.68
-8.69 -8.57-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
8.5510.31
12.5914.20
0
5
10
15
20
7.24
11.41
18.40 19.51
0
5
10
15
20
UNL 95-Dubai
Gas Oil-Dubai
Fuel Oil-Dubai
2009
Strong demand in the region due to refinery turnaround Open arbitrage from East to West ahead of U.S. driving season
Tight supply from heavy refinery turnaround in Asia Firm demand from China and India for power generation Limited export from China due to tight domestic supplies
Higher crude price pressure down fuel oil Heavy western arbitrage inflow
$/BBL
UNL 95-Dubai
Gas Oil-Dubai
Fuel Oil-Dubai
2010 Q1-2011 Q2-2011
- 5 -
5.21
-0.99
5.12
2Q11 2Q10 1Q11
Inventory G (L) ($/BBL)
Inventory G (L) ($/BBL)
7.325.46
9.62
2Q11 2Q10 1Q11
Market GRM ($/BBL)
2Q11 2Q10 1Q11
GRM Performance
2Q11 2Q10
Base GRM
GRM Hedging
Inventory G(L)
MKM
1Q11
-0.99
-0.53
0.63
-0.97
GRM Hedging ($/BBL)
GRM Hedging ($/BBL)
Unit : $/bbl
Accounting GIM ($/bbl)
14.48 $/bbl
2Q11
- 6 -
12.00 $/bbl
2.48 2.56 2.54
1Q11 1Q10 4Q10
MKM ($/BBL)
MKM ($/BBL)
Total GRM12.00
MKM2.48
1
Refinery Performance
Crude run increase by 56.62% QoQ and 21.98% YoYAverage Crude run in 1H2011 was 80.5 KBD
Crude Run Product Yield 2Q11
Crude Selection 2Q11
Import 50%
Local
50%
Import Local
Import
Local
FO 14%
Gasoline 20%
GO 53%
JET 13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
IK
HSD
Gasoline
FO
- 7 -
Actual Plan Forecast
80.588.0 89.1
62.7
98.2 100.0 100.091.4
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Y2011
KBD
PTT45.6%
ESSO16.4%
BCP13.5%
SHELL12.1%
CALTEX6.2%
OTHER6.2%
Marketing Performance
Average Sales Volume through Marketing Channels (ML/MO)
3rd rank in market share of sale volume through service station
Sales volume growth by 10.53% QoQ
2.7 2.5 2.5 2.519 18 20 22
68 61 65 65
81 87 90 94
152189 180 180
323
357 357 364
Q1 (Actual) Q2 (Actual) Q3 (PLAN) Q4 (PLAN)
HSD
MOGAS
JET
FO
LUBE
Gasohol Average Sales Volume (ML/MO)
59.5062.45
Q1 /11 Q2/11
Axi
s Ti
tle
Axis Title
Average Sales volume of Gasohol (ML/MO)
Average Sales volume of Gasohol (ML/MO)
Q2 Y2011 Performance
- 8 -
2.7 2.5 2.5 2.519 18 20 22
68 61 65 65
81 87 90 94
152189 180 180
323
357 357 364
Q1 (Actual) Q2 (Actual) Q3 (PLAN) Q4 (PLAN)
LUBE FO JET MOGAS HSD
4,648 4,935 5,241 5,668 5,814 6,291 6,612 6,754 6,654 7,257 7,429
8,700 8,845 9,108 10,093 10,561 10,977 10,979
147172 183 199 208 217 223 232 250 255 267
297 300 314 334 347 369 399
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11
E20 2011 Target : 500 Service Stations
Sales Growth of Gasohol E20 & E85
32 48 60 72 72 84 96 105 120160 164
196 227 228 265 240
400
462
2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
1516
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11
E85 2011 Target : 30 Service Stations
- 9 -
4,648 4,935 5,241
5,668 5,814 6,291 6,612 6,754 6,654
7,257 7,429
8,700 8,845 9,108 10,093
10,561 10,977 10,979
147172
183199 208
217 223232 250 255 267
297 300314
334347
369399
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11
Sale Volume (KL) Number of ServiceStations
32 48 60 72 72 84 96 105 120160 164
196 227 228 265 240
400
462
2 2 2 2 2 23 3 3
45 5 5 5 5 5
1516
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11
Sale Volume (KL) Number of ServiceStations
Bangchak Bio Fuel: B-100
- 10 -
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
B B B
B3 => Utilization 66%
B4 => Utilization 83%
B5 => Utilization 100%
67.0%68.8%
82.9%
74.4%
42.9%
69.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011
Utilization
+60%
26.00 25.57 26.94
37.91
50.42
35.62
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011
Plam Oil Price (Baht/kg)
5.81 6.026.76 6.48
4.42
5.78
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011
Sales
26.00 25.57 26.94
37.91
50.42
35.62
Plam Oil Price (Baht/kg)
Utilization 2H’54 depends on government policy
Sales Volume (ML/MO)
5.81 6.026.76 6.48
4.42
5.78
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011
Sales Volume
Sales Volume
Agenda
Performance Highlights
Operational Performance
Project Progress
Financial Performance
Market Outlook
- 11 -
Project Progress
- 12 -
Gasoline Euro IV Standard
Renewable Energy Business
Phase I UBE & TAE
EURO IV : USD 50 Million Investment
Incentive 24 st./L @ 220 ML/Month
Expected EURO IV premium will be higher
GAS OIL
EURO IV
GASOLINE
EURO IV
2010 2011 2012
Gasoline EURO IV Commissioning in Sep
EURO IV becomes fully effective in 2012
EURO IV Project
- 13 -
Solar Farm : Phase I
Phase I : 38 MW
Project Cost ~ 4,200 MB
Work Progress 88.6%
8 MW COD Aug 5, 2011
30 MW COD Nov 2011
Expected EBITDA in 2011 ~115 MB
- 14 -
Facility Building
Substation and Service Building Inverter House
Solar Farm : Phase I
- 15 -
Solar Farm : Phase I
- 16 -
Thin-film
Tracker system
Solar Farm : Phase I
- 17 -
Ubon Bio Ethanol
Project Cost ~ 5,000 MB
Expected EBITDA 1,400MB/Year
Overall Project Progress : 16.88% ( As of July 7, 2011 )
BCP 21.30%
TOP 21.30%
Existing Shareholder
57.40%
1
2
3
Ubon Bio EthanolShareholders’ structure
Ubon Bio Ethanol
- 18 -
Starch Plant
Cassava Plantation
Ubon Bio Ethanol
- 19 -
UBE UAE UBG
Ethanol 400,000 Liter/day
Starch 300 Ton/day
Bio Gas 36,000 m3/day
UBE Location & Capacity
TAE Shareholders’ Structure
Lanna 45%
BCP 40%
Others 15%
1
2
3
Thai Agro Energy
- 20 -
Thai Agro Energy
Project Cost ~ 2,100 MB
Expected EBITDA 400 MB/Year
Capacity :
- 165,000 Liters/day from Molasses
- 200,000 Liters/day from Cassava
The company has signed share sales and purchase agreement of Thai Agro Energy Public Co., Ltd. with LANNA Resources Public Co., Ltd.
Thai Agro Energy
- 21 -
Fermentation Zone Distillation Unit Boiler Plant
Palm Plantation
Palm Plantation 80,000 Rais at Phathumthani
Palm mill with capacity 45 tons/hour (COD in 2015)
Project cost 800 MB, expected EBITDA 230 MB/yr
Project progress : Pilot project of 1,200 Rais ( 800 Rais completed )
- 22 -
Palm Plantation
- 23 -
Location Information :
Area Size 1,209 Rais
- Zone 1-10 624 Rais
- Zone 11-19 373 Rais
- Road Area 100 Rais
- Water Area 92 Rais
Office Location Pilot Plantation Area Land filled Area
Land Preparation
Palm Plantation
- 24 -
Learning Center
Agenda
Performance Highlights
Operational Performance
Project Progress
Financial Performance
Market Outlook
- 25 -
Financial Performance : Consolidated
- 26 -
2Q 2011 2Q 2010 1Q11
Sales
42,906
32,958 35,759
1 2 3
4,183
1,2232,351
1 2 3
3,021
432 1,424
1 2 3
EBITDA
Net Profit
Unit : Million Baht
EPS (Baht) 2.33 0.37 1.14
Profit and Loss Highlights
- 27 -
Q2 2011 Q2 2010 ∆YoY Q1 2011 ∆QoQ
Sale Revenue 42,906 32,958 +30.2% 35,759 +20.0%
EBITDA 4,183 1,223 +242.0% 2,351 +77.9%
Depreciation & Amortization (525) (459) (478)
Other FX and Impairment (105) 81 221
Financial Cost (137) (229) (200)
Pre-tax Profit 3,416 616 +454.5% 1,895 +80.3%
Tax (389) (174) (449)
Net Profit 3,028 442 +585.0% 1,446 +109.4%
EPS 2.33 0.37 1.14
Inventory Gain/(Loss) 1,415 (233) +707.4% 888 +59.5%
Adjusted EBITDA 2,768 1,456 +90.1% 1,346 +105.6%
Consolidated
Unit : Million Baht
Remark : Net Profit including Non-controlling Interest
Profit and Loss HighlightsBCP Only
BOI Project Tax privilege of 640 MB causes effective Tax rate in 1H11 to be 15.72%- 28 -
Q2 2011 Q2 2010 ∆YoY Q1 2011 ∆QoQ
Sale Revenue 42,442 32,970 +28.7% 35,382 +20.0%
EBITDA 4,115 1,161 +254.4% 2,234 +84.2%
Refinery business 3,698 766 +382.8% 1,890 +95.7%
Marketing business 417 395 +5.6% 344 +21.1%
Depreciation & Amortization (498) (417) (425)
Other FX and Impairment (105) 89 261
Financial Cost (128) (220) (191)
Pre-tax Profit 3,384 613 +452.0% 1,879 +80.1%
Tax (386) (177) (441)
Net Profit 2,999 436 +587.7% 1,437 +108.6%
EPS 2.31 0.37 1.14
Inventory Gain/(Loss) 1,415 (233) +707.4% 888 +59.5%
Adjusted EBITDA 2,700 1,394 +93.7% 1,346 +100.5%
Refinery business 2,283 999 +128.5% 1,002 +127.8%
Marketing business 417 395 +5.6% 344 +21.1%
Unit : Million Baht
Q2 2011 Q2 2010 Q1 2011
M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL
Base GRM 1,988 7.32 1,287 5.46 1,664 9.62
GRM Hedging (143) (0.53) 148 0.63 (168) (0.97)
Inventory Gain/(Loss) 1,415 5.21 (233) (0.99) 888 5.12
Total GRM 3,261 12.00 1,202 5.10 2,383 13.77
Other Income 953 3.51 58 0.25 90 0.52
Operating Expenses (516) (1.90) (492) (2.09) (583) (3.37)
EBITDA 3,698 13.61 768 3.26 1,890 10.92
Adjusted EBITDA 2,283 8.40 1,001 4.25 1,002 5.80
Key factors
Crude Run (KBD) 98.2 80.5 62.7
Exchange rate (฿/$) 30.41 32.53 30.68
DB ($/Bbl) 110.72 78.04 100.49
Refinery BU Performance
Other income from PQI compensation of 918 MB
- 29 -
Marketing BU Performance
- 30 -
Q2 2011 Q2 2010 Q1 2011
M.Baht ฿/L M.Baht ฿/L M.Baht ฿/L
Net Retail Margin 503 0.78 532 0.86 423 0.73
Net Industrial Margin 163 0.27 78 0.15 99 0.17
Total MKM 666 0.53 610 0.54 522 0.45
Other Income 166 0.13 168 0.15 190 0.16
Operating Expenses (415) (0.33) (383) (0.34) (368) (0.31)
EBITDA 417 0.33 395 0.35 344 0.29
Sale Volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo
o Retail 44.9 214 42.6 205 40.7 194
o Industrial 42.8 204 35.0 169 41.2 197
Total Sale Volume 87.7 418 77.6 374 81.9 391
2.54 $/bbl2.48 $/bbl
Financial Position
- 31 -
Assets 30 Jun 11 31 Dec 10
Cash 2,288 8,504
Trade Accounts Receivable 7,352 6,314
Inventories 20,920 15,058
Other Current Assets 4,480 1,635
Current Assets 35,040 31,511
Investment in Subsidiary 1,111 198
PPE 24,339 22,736
Leasehold Rights 930 954
Other Non-Current Assets 1,807 1,740
Total Assets 63,227 57,139
Inventory increase by 5,862 MBdue to oil price and volume(0.5 M bbl)
Investment in UBE (763 MB) and BSE (150 MB)
PPE increase by 1,603 MB mainly from Solar Farm Phase I and Euro IV Project
Inventory
Investment in Subsidiary
PPE
Unit : Million BahtBCP Only
Financial Position
- 32 -
Bond : PTT & CDDR holders had exercised conversion from CD to common share worth of 1,834 MB
Common Share : Paid-up capital had increased by 193 million shares resulting from CD conversion and warrant exercise
Assets 30 Jun 11 31 Dec 10 Liabilities 30 Jun 11 31 Dec 10
Cash 2,288 8,504 Short Term Loan + Due 1 Yr 6,350 2,587
Trade Accounts Receivable 7,352 6,314 Trade Accounts Payable 8,819 10,094
Inventories 20,920 15,058 Other Current Liabilities 3,105 4,482
Other Current Assets 4,480 1,635 Long Term Loan & Bond 14,728 16,441
Current Assets 35,040 31,511 Other Non current Liabilities 1,068 1,109
Total Liabilities 34,070 34,713
Shareholders' Equity
Investment in Subsidiary 1,111 198 Common Share 1,370 1,177
PPE 24,914 23,311 Premium on Share Capital 11,251 8,462
Leasehold Rights 930 954 Retained Earning 16,536 12,787
Other Non-Current Assets 1,232 1,165
Total Equity 29,157 22,426
Total Assets 63,227 57,139 Total Liabilities & Equity 63,227 57,139
MoF
Unit : Million shares
CDDR
Others
Total
Total CS
PTT
5 0.36%
As of today
137 9.99%
860 62.68%
1,372 100%
1,377 100%
375 27.33%
Shareholders’ Structure
Unit : Million BahtBCP Only
Bangchak Bio Fuel Performance
Profit & Loss
800
232
141 98
Chart Title
Cash
Other Assets
Inventory
PP&E
800
232
141 98
Chart Title
Cash
Other Assets
Inventory
PP&E 519
90
515
147 -
Chart Title
S/T Debt
Trade A/P
Other Liabilities
L/T Debt
Equity
519
90
515
147 -
Chart Title
S/T Debt
Trade A/P
Other Liabilities
L/T Debt
Equity
Total Assets 1,271 MB Total Liabilities 753 MB
Total Equities 519 MB
Balance Sheet
Unit : MB 2Q2011 2Q2010 ∆YoY 1Q2011 ∆QoQ
Sale Revenue 598 523 14% 683 -12%
Cost of Goods Sold (581) (444) 31% (548) 6%
Gross Profit Margin 17 69 -75% 135 -87%
Operating Expenses (5) (5) (5)
LCM 30 - (40) -175%
EBITDA 42 54 -22% 90 -53%
Depreciation (11) (23) (11)
Interest (9) (9) (8)
Net Profit 22 33 -33% 71 -69%
- 33 -
Unit : Million Baht
Financial Ratio
- 34 -
Consolidated
PROFIT RETURN RATIO (1H 2011)
Net Profit Margin % 5.69
Earning per Share Baht 3.5
Return on Equity-ROE % 17.21
Return on Assets-ROA % 7.29
FINANCIAL POSITION RATIO (As of 30 June 11)
Current Ratio times 1.92
AR Day days 14.38
DSCR times 4.75
D/E Ratio times 0.73
Net debt to EBITDA times 1.88
Book Value per Share (BV) Baht 21.43
Agenda
Performance Highlights
Operational Performance
Project Progress
Financial Performance
Market Outlook
- 35 -
What’s next in 2H 2011
Crude run 100 KBDEuro IV project completion
Marketing sales volume growth by 6% in 2HFlagship service station completionExpansion of E20 & E85 service stations
BBF Utilization rate above 80%
COD of Solar Farm Project Phase I : 38 MWStart construction of Solar Farm Project Phase II : 32 MW
- 36 -
Oil Market Outlook: Macroeconomics
World GDP Growth Outlook (%YoY)
Global economy is continuing to grow this year, lead by China and India
Source : IMF, June 2011 Re: U.S. actual GDP for Q1 and Q2 is 0.4% and 1.3%
5.14.3 4.5
2.9 2.52.7
1.82.0 1.7
4.0
-0.7
2.9
10.39.6 9.5
10.4
8.2 7.8
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2010 2011 2012
World
US
EU
Japan
China
India
- 37 -
Oil Market Outlook: Key Factors
Key Factor
Global Economy
Hurricane Season
Political Tension
Global Inflation
High inflation would force
government monetary
policy tighten.
If the situation resolved, oil price should correct downward.
Expectations on strong emerging
market help drive world economy.
Uncertainty of U.S. economy and sovereign
debt issues in Europe would continue to drive
swings in risk appetite of oil.
45 percent chance that a major
hurricane would make landfall along
the U.S. coast of the Gulf of Mexico
- 38 -
Oil Market Outlook: Oil Price Forecast
Brent ($/BBL) Q3-11 Q4-11 2011 2012
JBC Energy 114.4 110.7 111.9 109.4
Credit Suisse 107 102 107.8 101.5
Barclays 110 115 112 115
BNP Paribas 116 122 116 126
Deutsche 115 119 114 117
Goldman Sachs 114 119.5 113.5 130
JP Morgan 110 115 112 124
Median 114 115 112 117
Median of previous forecast 110 115 112 114
Oil prices are expected to be strong, driven by strong economic growth in China and India
Source : Reuters Polls, Jul, 27 2011
- 39 -
Oil Market Outlook: Product Cracks
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11
$/BBL
Gas Oil
ULG95
HSFO
BCP GRM expected to be healthy around 6 $/BBL
- 40 -
Flagship Service Station
- 41 -
Flagship Service Station
- 42 -
Q & AThank You
Tel. +662 335 4580, 335 4583
www.bangchak.co.th
click Investor Relations
Top Related